Where does the time go? Week 4 already! Are you finding success in the DFS and prop world so far? I hope these weekly articles are helping a bit. Most importantly, I hope these articles are convincing you of the benefit our Razzball tools are to your fantasy and daily success. I use them every week and to date (knock on wood), I’m having the best start to a fantasy football season than I’ve ever had…and they’re not paying me to say that!
As a reminder, Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE or just visit our site at football.razzball.com.
Paying Up
- Player: Kyler Murray
- Game: Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
- DK: $6,800 / FD: $8,700
The Commanders defense is giving up the most points to QBs so far this season, and Kyler can rack ‘em up with his arm and legs. Practically everyone is looking sunny on the Cardinals side this week. Great QB-WR or QB-TE stacking opportunities here.
- Player: Saquon Barkley
- Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- DK: $8,000 / FD: $9,700
The Bucs allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a RB TD per week. They also allow the most RB receptions (8.0) per game and almost 9 yards per reception to RBs. On the other side, it’s all hands on deck (see what I did there?) for the depleted Eagles offense. Does anyone think it’s unrealistic for Barkley to log a third stat line that includes 100+ yards and 2-3 total TDs?
- Player: Nico Collins
- Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
- DK: $7,200 / FD: $7,700
My lock of the week. The free Razzball tools are practically bursting at the seams to offer this one up. I used just about all of them here. Let me summarize: The Jags defense ranks 23rd in the league against WRs and gives up 62% of the fantasy points to wideouts. Nico is scoring over 90% of his fantasy points out wide. Over the last year plus, he’s scored a whopping 72% more points at home than on the road. If you’re betting on the Texans to win (currently -6), his Win/Loss index is 160, meaning he scores 60% more points in wins. Need more? Our TD Rush/Rec Share Tool tells us he’s garnering 29% of all redzone targets – tops on the team.
If you’re scoring at home, this “lock of the week” is compliments of our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowedtool, our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool, our Home/Road Player Splits tool, our Win/Loss Player Splits tool, and our new TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool. Again, all for free at football.razzball.com.
- Player: Dallas Goedert
- Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- DK: $5,100 / FD: $7,500
Going back to Tampa, Dallas Goedert comes in at one of the more expensive TE options, but for good reason. Even if one of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith plays in this one (Note: at the time of this writing, it doesn’t look good for either of them), Goedert should be the primary downfield and redzone target for Hurts in a must-win game. I’m probably going another way at the TE position, but I can’t argue if you choose to stay here.
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Caleb Williams
- Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
- DK: $5,600 / FD: $7,100
The Rams are one of the friendliest defenses for a QB to face, averaging 25 fantasy points per game. That’s the perfect recipe for this young QB to face coming off a game where he threw his first two career TDs.
- Player: Najee Harris
- Team: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
- DK: $5,600 / FD: $6,600
NFL teams are rushing more against the Colts than any other team. As expected, the Colts are giving up the most rushing yards than any other team in the league. Look for Harris to continue to dominate RB snaps with Jaylen Warren, currently at a 3:2 clip. Although, if you want to start Jaylen Warren (DK: $5,100, FD: $5,200) in a GPP contest, I don’t hate that either. These RBs should eat well Sunday.
- Player: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Team: Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
- DK: $5,500 / FD: $6,100
JSN is the primary slot WR for the Seahawks (84% scoring from the slot) and faces the friendliest slot defense (22.8 fantasy points against) in the league. JSN also has a negative Home/Road split, meaning he tends to score more points on the road than at home. He pairs nicely with another Smith, that being Geno Smith (DK: $5,800 / FD: $7,300), if you’re looking for a cheaper QB-WR stack.
- Player: Mike Gesicki
- Team: Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
- DK: $3,500 / FD: $5,600
Mike Gesicki is becoming one of my favorite low-cost TE options each week. He’s receiving an average of 6 targets per week and bringing them in at about an 80% clip. Also, the Carolina defense is ranked 31st in the league in TE fantasy points (10.00 per game). A quick rewind, how did Gesicki fare, also on the road, against the 32nd ranked defense? He ended with over 16 fantasy points (PPR), even without scoring a TD. That first TD in a Bengals uniform is close. I’m willing to bet it comes this weekend. Are you?
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Andy Dalton (Yards, 2+ TDs): Am I the only one calling Andy Dalton the “Joe Flacco” of 2024? Probably not, but it’s fun to think about. It’s also fun to see some excitement surrounding the Carolina Panthers these days. After blistering the Raiders for 319 and 3 TDs, ole Red gets a Bengals defense that just got torched on MNF and comes in on short rest. Does he keep it rolling?
Tony Pollard (Receiving Yards, Anytime TD): The Dolphins defense is averaging 2.00 RB TDs against, tops in the league. They also rank 3rd worst in allowing RB receiving yards. This is all good news for Pollard who’s targeted 4-6 times per game.
Aaron Jones (Rush + Receiving, Anytime TD): Say it with me, “Aaron Jones revenge game!” We know the narrative but do the numbers back it up? Well, Jones is on pace for 1,300 yards this season and has seen 6 targets in each of his last two games, so the Rush + Receiving prop looks attractive based on the numbers you find at your favorite site. Also, who wants to bet the Vikings prioritize him in the redzone at his former house? I will be.
Ja’Marr Chase (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): I probably don’t have to say much here. The Bengals need a W and that only comes if Burrow and Chase link up often. It’s a lock to think the 4th worst slot defense will have trouble containing Chase but be mindful of the odds you’re getting. There’s units to gain here but don’t get too crazy.
DeMario Douglas (Receptions, Yards): DeMario Douglas is coming off a game where he had 9 targets which translated to 7 receptions and 69 yards against the NY Jets defense. This week, the young Patriots travel west to San Francisco to face a 49ers defense that is clearly not the NY Jets. The 9ers are giving up almost 21 fantasy points to slot WRs and that happens to be where Douglas does most of his damage. Pound the overs.
Romeo Doubs (Receptions, Anytime TD): Betting on a Packers WR is always a daunting task, but this matchup lines up well for Doubs. The Vikings give up two-thirds of WR action to wideouts and Doubs practically lives out there (86% routes). There’s a potential for Jordan Love to play in this one too, which boosts confidence here. If you’re want to get real spicy, add a yardage prop, but receptions and an anytime TD seems the best play for me to take a shot with nice odds.
Mike Gesicki (Receiving Yards, Anytime TD): See discussion above. Gesicki already has two games with 47+ receiving yards but hasn’t found paydirt yet. I’ll be betting that one to come this weekend. Shop around for the best numbers but if they correlate well with what I’ve shared here, slam this one.
That’s All Folks
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
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Until next time, my friends!
