In Week 3, I finally put a W on the board in my highest-stakes league and now appear primed to return to .500 following a strong showing on Thursday Night Football against a low-life opponent. Have no fear, 1-2 is a perfectly fine place to be unless you’re playing Skip-Bo against your four-year-old niece. In sports, especially fantasy, there is an unavoidable degree of variability and uncertainty that can make life maddening. However, if we commit to the process the same way Deion Sanders does to his hair follicle treatment, failure is not an option. The season is long. Continue to make the right decisions based on facts and the wins will come. This week, that might mean making a difficult call on Trevor Lawrence as your QB1 or starting Alvin Kamara in his first game back. Should you dare put Quentin Johnston in your lineup in his increased role? WHat about DeVon Achane? We’ll get to all of that and more in the Week 4 start vr. sit, which begins right now.
Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our three-day free trial!
START: Brocky Purdy. Is this a boring pick? Am I boring? Probably one of the only names I’ve never been called. You know, boring can be good. Was watching San Francisco win five Super Bowls in 13 years boring for 49ers fans? Purdy hasn’t been awesome through three weeks, but he’s completed over 65% of his passes for a QB rating over 93.0 in every game thus far and has yet to throw a pick. He’s solid. He’s reliable. And he’s playing at home against Arizona this weekend, opening the door for his first elite QB1 finish of the season. Is there the risk of the ground game stealing the show here? Yes, but I like the matchup for Purdy enough to roll with him in confidence.
SIT: Trevor Lawrence. It goes without saying at this point that Justin Fields needs to be on your bench and that Joe Burrow is a high-end QB2 option until he turns the corner, so I’m going in a different direction here. As the Jaguars dropped back-to-back games in Weeks 2-3, Lawrence finished outside the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks while throwing just one touchdown combined against the Chiefs and Texans defenses. This week he draws the Falcons, who have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks through three games (against Carolina, Green Bay, and Detroit). My gut tells me the Jags stick out this W with another big day on the ground, but Lawrence finished outside QB1 territory for the third consecutive week.
START: Alvin Kamara. He’s back! And ranked as RB21 in ECR for a Week 4 matchup vs. the Buccaneers. Let’s not overthink this one. Yes, Kamara missed the first three games of the season and there’s uncertainty under center in the short term. But Kamara is still one of the more talented backs in the sport and has a top-12 matchup this week. He sees volume right away and produces as a back-end RB1/high-end RB2 in Week 4.
HAT TIP: DeVon Achane. How about last week, eh? Not to overreact to Achane’s game of the ages (18 carries, 203 yards, four receptions, 30 yards, four touchdowns), but I really like the Dolphins rookie back again in Week 4. Fresh off an RB1 overall finish, Achane and Miami travel to Buffalo this week. The matchup’s over-under of 53.5 points is the highest of any game in Week 4. On top of that, the Bills’ rush D ranks second-to-last in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt allowed. Fire up Achane as a rock-solid RB2.
SIT: Miles Sanders. In an effort to not go Javonte Williams in consecutive weeks, Sanders takes the cake here. Although he appears in line to play, Sanders was been limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to a groin injury he’s been dealing with since the preseason. During that time, he’s finished as RB24, RB38, and RB14. That season-high finish of RB14 last week even came on a season-low in volume (14 touches) and was salvaged by Sanders’ first score of the campaign and a weak running backfield in Week 4. Against a stout Vikings run defense, Sanders finishes outside the top-25 running backs this week despite having an ECR of RB12.
START: Tank Dell. I actually like both Nico Collins and Tank Dell this week. There’s something about C.J. Stroud and the Houston passing game at home that excites me, which I never thought I’d say heading into the year. That being said, Dell has garnered 17 targets and 12 receptions while finding the endzone each of the last two weeks. In that time, he has paced all Houston receivers in target share and air yard share. There’s going to be some head-scratching moments when putting your faith in the Texans, but Dell will significantly outperform his WR34 ECR and finish as a top-25 option in Week 4.
HAT TIP: Quentin Johnston. Justin Herbert is averaging 313 yards and 40 pass attempts per game this season along with a career average of 310 yards, 2.33 touchdowns, and 42.8 attempts per game against the Raiders. Prior to his injury, Mike Williams was averaging 8.7 targets per game, which now effectively become vacated targets. Expect Quinton Johnston to step up in this role and provide strong Flex value despite the high degree of uncertainty.
SIT: Amari Cooper. Here are Deshaun Watson’s averages in three career games vs. the Ravens: 201.7 yards, 0.7 touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions. Last season, Cooper saw 10.4 and 9.8 PPR points in two games vs. the Ravens. Despite an injured secondary, Baltimore has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game at 200. A possible Marcus Williams and/or Marlon Humphrey return to the secondary along with an injured Oweh and Ojabo will lead the Browns to turn to the run game. Expect a low-scoring dawg fight in this AFC North battle. You’re going to start him anyway, but you’ll regret it.
START: Kyle Pitts. This is the week! Has to be, right!? Pitts saw 14 targets in the last two weeks but converted that to just seven catches for 56 total yards. He also has yet to find pay dirt this year, but the Jaguars defense has allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in each of the last two weeks. Pitts finally finds the endzone this week and totals over 50 receiving yards, making him a worthy TE1.
SIT: Hunter Henry and David Njoku. The latter goes without saying. As for Henry, we saw his production come back down to Earth in Week 3 after back-to-back top-two finishes at the position to open the year. My feeling is that was smoke and mirrors, and now the smoke is clearing and the mirror was really just a piece of plexiglass. His matchup at Dallas isn’t enticing and he ranks 17th in target share at the position and playing for a team that loves running the ball. Avoid.