Week 5 Starts and Sits: Home/Road and Win/Loss Players Splits

Time to hold my feet to the fire again.

My Week 4 starts:

Nick Chubb, Texans RB: projected 9.3 PPR points, actual 8.2 PPR points

Chris Olave, Saints WR: projected 12.4 PPR points, actual 9.0 PPR points

Quentin Johnston, Chargers WR: projected 12.2 PPR points, actual 23.8 PPR points

A couple of things to keep an eye on in the Chubb/Marks paradigm: Chubb has had low scores in pass blocking the last two weeks on PFF. They both struggled against Jacksonville, but Marks had a better game against the Titans and out-snapped Chubb for the first time. Like I said in an earlier column, this game did not get lopsided until the fourth quarter, so this is a split that could go either way.

I wrongfully assumed the Saints would pass to stay competitive, and they ran instead. To add to my misery, Olave threw an interception to lose two points.

I don’t know about you, but QJ is staying in my lineup. On a day the Chargers’ passing offense was toothless, Johnston had a 13/8/98/1 line. He has been at least a top-24 WR every week and top-6 twice.

My Week 4 sits:

David Montgomery, Lions RB: projected 11.0 PPR points, actual 1.2 PPR points

Brian Thomas, Jaguars WR: projected 13.8 PPR points, actual 10.6 PPR points

DK Metcalf, Steelers WR: projected 12.7 PPR points, actual 23.6 points

Even with Jahmyr Gibbs’ 91-yard game in Week 4, the Browns are allowing 70.3 rushing yards per game. Montgomery was unlikely to overpower their line.

Brian Thomas’ 10.6 PPR points were his highest score of the season. The Jaguars are not beating teams through the air.

Hilariously, the first play I saw from the game in Ireland was Metcalf taking a short pass from Aaron Rodgers and completing an 80-yard TD. I don’t feel bad about my analysis – 80-yard TD passes do not grow on trees, and without that play, Metcalf’s line was 4/4/46/0 and Rodgers had 17 completions on 21 attempts for 120 yards with no TDs. A loss is a loss.

Even Isaiah Pacheco had a decent week with 12.8 PPR points, but it wasn’t volume-based; he had his first receiving TD since Week 17 of 2023.

I will try not to use the same players twice in a row, even though that would make my job easier. With four teams on bye, things get funky.

This is a column for deep leagues where there are three WR slots and/or multiple W/R/T flex slots. The tools can be useful decision points higher up the rankings, but I’m looking for WR3s and flexes. I use the indices as a compass.

For the numbers below for Home/Road and Win/Loss: positive numbers mean a player scores more at home or in wins, and negative numbers mean a player scores more on the road or in losses. The H/R Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games and the W/L Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by those scored in losses: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more at home or in wins, and less than 100 means the player scores more on the road or in losses.

How I approach this: First, I need rankings: I choose FantasyPros as they’re free, and they use several analysts to amalgamate. Second, I look at the H/R and W/L databases for an edge. Third, I look at spreads and over/under for how the public sees the games (I use ESPNBET). Those are candidates. The work after would consume too much of this column, but I will say the free tools at RazzballNFL, as well as my PFF subscription, are great allies.

Let’s look at some players for Week 5.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |

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Player: Elic Ayomanor

Team: Tennessee Titans

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 36, 10.2 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 38, 9.8 points/game

Spread: +7.5 at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 42.5

Home/Road: +9.9, H/R Index 303

Win/Loss: +9.8, W/L Index INF

 

I’m using journalistic discretion here. To boot, I’ll use the metaphor about the tail wagging the dog. And throw in a simile about playing with fire.

The indices aren’t much help here, as Ayomanor has played four games in his career and has won none.

The Titans have the worst passing offense in the NFL, and it’s not close: 123.5 yards/game, and 2 TDs in four games.

So, what’s the deal, Crews?

I like Ayomanor is the deal. He’s first on the team in targets and receiving yards, second in receptions, and those 2 TDs? They’re his. He’s one of the couple of guys toward the bottom of the WR3s/top of the WR4s I like this week.

The bonus deal is that Arizona is the most pass-friendly defense Tennessee has faced in 2025. Part of the success Denver, the Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis, and Houston have had this year has come from playing the Titans. But not all. The Cardinals allow the fifth-most yards and have only eight sacks. They have yet to hold a quarterback under 214 air yards. The Cards don’t give up a lot of points in the running game. They have been susceptible to backs in the passing game, but the Titans haven’t been using Tony Pollard much that way.

There’s a chance WR Calvin Ridley is out this week, as he has yet to practice because of injuries to his knee and elbow. They’ll need Ayomanor and Chig Okonkwo to step up.

Recommendation: START                                                                                                                                                       

 

Player: Jordan Mason

Team: Minnesota Vikings

FantasyPros PPR Rank: RB 18, 13.2 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: RB 24, 12.0 points/game

Spread: -3.5 at Cleveland Browns, O/U 36.5 (in London, UK)

Home/Road: +3.7, H/R Index 145

Win/Loss: +4.7, W/L Index 158

 

The indices favor Mason at home and in wins. I know the Vikings are favored now, but they have five offensive linemen who have not practiced yet this week and four of them are starters. Getting the layup out of the way: I feel confident LT Christian Darrisaw will play – they’re managing his reps from an earlier injury, and he’s the best of the bunch. The good news may stop there however. LG Donovan Jackson missed the Week 4 game and has been ruled out for Week 5. Neither of the centers on their depth chart, Ryan Kelly (concussion) or Michael Jurgens (hamstring), has injuries that are quick to recover from. RT Brian O’Neill sprained his MCL against the Steelers and is week-to-week. Only RG Will Fries is not on the injury report.

Once injury designations are assigned for the game, I have a feeling that line will move.

I’ll refer you to my column from last week as nothing I said about the Browns has changed despite Jahmyr Gibbs’ game with 91 rushing yards and a touchdown against Cleveland in Week 4. Gibbs is not coming out of the Vikings locker room on Sunday.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Player: Marquise Brown

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 40, 9.6 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 26, 12.2 points/game

Spread: -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 46.5

Home/Road: -2.1, H/R Index 83

Win/Loss: -4.2, W/L Index 70

 

Picking a Kansas City receiver can be fraught. Xavier Worthy is likely to do the most damage to a defense, Juju Smith-Schuster had the most snaps in Week 4, and Tyquan Thornton is still part of the offense. Even Jalen Royals got his first 14 snaps in Week 4.

If you need me to tell us to start Worthy, well:

“Start Worthy.”

There.

To the rest: Juju is not entirely lining up in the slot, but he tends to be there 40+% of the time, and there lies SCB Jourdan Lewis, one of the best nickel backs in the league in 2025.

The Jags are allowing the fewest points to the slot, but the second most out wide. They’ve been good in coverage, but haven’t faced a premier quarterback since Week 2, and Joe Burrow was injured in the second quarter of that game. Their pressure is solid, but their 7 sacks are the 10^th lowest. There should be plenty of points on the outside for the Chiefs’ receivers.

H/R favors the matchup, W/L does not: Brown’s best game as a Chief was in Brazil vs. the Chargers, the game Worthy was hurt early. He’ll likely need a TD to cash, but I’ll bet on that.

Recommendation: START

 

Player: A.J. Brown

Team: Philadelphia Eagles

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 21, 12.8 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 46, 8.8 points/game

Spread: -3.5 vs. Denver Broncos, O/U 43.5

Home/Road: -1.1, H/R Index 92

Win/Loss: -9.4, W/L Index 60

 

This can go wrong in so many ways.

The indices point in this direction, but I need to point out that in the games Brown has played in the window covered by these databases, the Eagles have one loss, so this is not a large sample.

Brown just had an online tantrum, and I know how I would treat that, but I’m not responsible for multi-millionaire athletes. He could go off. He is certainly capable of that: he was PPR WR4 for Week 3 at home against the Rams. But he was also WR101, WR67, and WR94 in the other three weeks.

On the other side, the Broncos have allowed the sixth-fewest points to WRs this season, mainly by limiting TD passes to 1; they have allowed a second TD pass, but it was to Jonathan Taylor. They’ve allowed eight-fewest to wideouts, and Brown scores 95% of his points out wide.

I’ll roll the die.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Player: RJ Harvey

Team: Denver Broncos

FantasyPros PPR Rank: RB 29, 9.0 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: RB 34, 8.9 points/game

Spread: +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 43.5

Home/Road: N/A

Win/Loss: N/A

 

This will please my cohorts, as they are Harvey stans. The tables don’t include him for some reason, so I did my own: in four games, he’s +19.6 with an index of 345 for both H/R and W/L as the Broncos’ wins have occurred at home and their losses on the road. Neither of those favors Harvey as an underdog in Philadelphia.

I could also be misreading the usage in the 28-3 blowout against the Bengals in Week 4. It looked to me like they were trying to get him on the field more: the game got out of hand early, but Harvey was on the field for their initial drives. Dobbins played more, but the touches favored Harvey 18-17.

Philadelphia does not allow a lot of RB targets, but teams have had success there: both Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving scored TDs on passes, and Irving added 102 receiving yards.

I’m jumping on this ranking as it may not be this low again. I don’t know if Harvey will pass Dobbins on the depth chart, but the partnership seems to be headed toward at least an even split. I’ll take a chance that Harvey brings our indices more in line in Week 5.

Recommendation: START

 

Player: Zay Flowers

Team: Baltimore Ravens

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 20, 13.3 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 16, 15.2 points/game

Spread: +2.5 vs. Houston Texans, O/U 41.5

Home/Road: +0.3, H/R Index 102

Win/Loss: -3.3, W/L Index 78

 

I may be stealing here, as QB Lamar Jackson very well may be out of this game. Or I could be falling into a trap. Simply said, if Cooper Rush starts, I feel about the Ravens the way bettors do.

H/R is a wash. He’s consistent over time wherever he plays. And W/L favors him in a losing scenario, but we have no data in this timeframe without Lamar Jackson, so I’ll take liberties. W/L may have the last laugh.

Flowers is a long touchdown away from making me eat my words, but the Texans are a strong defense against the pass, allowing the 10^th fewest points to WRs so far, and that includes games at the Rams and vs. the Buccaneers in Houston.

Not only are the Ravens likely to be without Jackson, but FB Patrick Ricard is no sure thing to return and LT Ronnie Stanley is questionable. As I write this, HC John Harbaugh is mum on their statuses. Their defense is a train wreck. And they’re facing a much healthier Texans team.

There are scenarios Flowers can win in: he operates plenty in the slot, and teams have had success against Jalen Pitre. The Texans can choose to try and pressure Rush to death, but I believe they load the box to try and stop RB Derrick Henry and keep the Ravens from big plays.

I watched the 49ers game Thursday night, so I know teams can rally in the same situation as the Ravens are in. The Ravens still have healthy skill players on offense. That said, a shootout seems unlikely to me.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X and BlueSky @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy, and don’t forget to join us on Sunday mornings of the fantasy football season at 11:00 a.m. EDT for the RazzballNFL Start/Sit show. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 5!