Week 6 Starts and Sits: Home/Road and Win/Loss Players Splits

Week 6 Starts and Sits: Home/Road and Win/Loss Players Splits

Time to hold my feet to the fire again.

My Week 5 starts:

Elic Ayomanor, Titans WR: projected 10.2 PPR points, actual 3.8 PPR points

Marquise Brown, Chiefs WR: projected 9.6 PPR points, actual 8.8 PPR points

RJ Harvey, Broncos: projected 9.0 PPR points, actual 6.0 PPR points

My analysis of the Titans matchup wasn’t bad, but my assumption that WR Calvin Ridley would miss the game was wrong. Ridley was QB Cam Ward’s focus as they furiously battled back from a 21-3 deficit to get their first win of the 2025 season. Ayomanor had his lowest point total since Week 1 and his fewest targets of the season.

It wasn’t a bad week for Brown, and with 8 targets, the opportunities were there, but he could not cash. He has not cracked 50 receiving yards since Week 1, and his only TD came in Week 4.

The game script did not work out for Harvey, as the Eagles were dominant for three quarters, and the Broncos leaned on the pass game to fuel their comeback win. Harvey not only took a back seat to J.K. Dobbins, but he was also out-snapped by Tyler Badie. Harvey’s hard to trust in competitive games yet.

My Week 4 sits:

Jordan Mason, Vikings RB: projected 13.2 PPR points, actual 12.6 PPR points

A.J. Brown, Eagles WR: projected 12.8 PPR points, actual 9.3 PPR points

Zay Flowers, Ravens WR: projected 13.3 PPR points, actual 12.2 points

None of these players hit their projections, but they didn’t tank. A.J. Brown’s frustrations continued, but Jordan Mason had 20 yards rushing, including a 3-yard touchdown run, on the opening possession of the second half to give the Vikes their first lead of the Week 5 game. He also caught 3 passes during the game for 4 yards.

Zay Flowers was having an unremarkable day until with about 4:30 left in the third quarter, with the ball on the Ravens 40-yard line, he put a stutter move on Texans’ CB Daryl Stingley Jr. and Stingley got his feet tangled and fell, leaving Flowers alone in the open field; QB Cooper Rush hit Flowers at the Texans’ 21-yard line and Flowers took the ball to the Houston 4-yard line for a 56-yard reception.

This is a column mainly for deep leagues where there are three WR slots and/or multiple W/R/T flex slots. The tools can be useful decision points higher up the rankings, but I’m looking for WR3s and flexes. I use the indices as a compass.

For the numbers below for Home/Road and Win/Loss: positive numbers mean a player scores more at home or in wins, and negative numbers mean a player scores more on the road or in losses. The H/R Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games and the W/L Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by those scored in losses: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more at home or in wins, and less than 100 means the player scores more on the road or in losses.

How I approach this: First, I need rankings: I choose FantasyPros as they’re free, and they use several analysts to amalgamate. Second, I look at the H/R and W/L databases for an edge. Third, I look at spreads and over/under for how the public sees the games (I use ESPNBET). Those are candidates. The work after would consume too much of this column, but I will say the free tools at RazzballNFL, as well as my PFF subscription, are great allies.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |

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I’m going to try something different this week: I am getting my biases out of the way and letting the data do the driving. I took the RBs and WRs, each ranked between 16 and 46, and looked for the ones where the matchup was either favorable or unfavorable per both the Win/Loss and Home/Road databases. I am showing those below:

The running backs are listed first, then the wide receivers. The “RK” number is the position ranking per FantasyPros as are the projected PPR points. The “O/U” (over/under) is the total points expected for the games, and the spread indicates the favorite (negative number) or underdog (positive number), meaning the favorite gives the points to the underdog.

As an example, Zac Charbonnet is the 31st-ranked running back for Seattle playing in Jacksonville in Week 6. He’s projected to score 9.4 PPR points. The total points the team are expected to score is 47.5, and the Seahawks are favored to win by 1.5 points. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Charbonnet has scored 3.5 more points in wins than in losses and the index of 142 means he scores 42%, on average, more in wins. He scores 1.5 points more on the road than at home and 13% fewer PPG at home. Being expected to win on the road shows a favorable matchup, so let’s see if he exceeds his projection.

I am not going to say another word about the matchups, but I will invite you to ask me questions in the comments. Anything is open.