Week 6 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool

Caprice. Most people who know the word remember it as an automobile model manufactured by Chevrolet until 1996.

It’s also a noun that is defined as “a sudden and unaccountable change of mood or behavior.” You may have encountered the adjective form – “capricious” – in reading; I’m not sure I’ve ever heard it used in conversation.

But I used it on Twitter recently when I lost a game in one of my home leagues by 0.60 points due to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ lateral show with the final kickoff on Sunday night resulting in a fumble that gave two points to the Dallas Cowboys defense and a narrow win to my opponent: it was a play by the Steelers that had a slightly higher chance of succeeding than my latest Quick Pick from 7-11.

I could also apply it to my roster in a charity tournament where teams have a quarterback spot and a superflex spot. I’ve long held that in many scoring systems, the point advantage provided by having a second quarterback man the superflex spot is eroded the farther down the list of quarterbacks until it’s almost nonexistent compared to a running back or wide receiver.

To make a long story short, I drafted two quarterbacks for this league: Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson. Hurts’ Philadelphia Eagles had a bye in Week 5, and Russell Wilson played as many snaps for the Pittsburgh Steelers as I did: zero. I would not have had an active quarterback in my Week 5 matchup, save for the choice of my league-mate in the draft not to back up his quarterback with his final pick and my capricious choice to chide him by selecting Joe Flacco with my last pick. I figured Anthony Richardson was a candidate to get injured at some point this season, and Joe Flacco is one of the better backups currently in the NFL. It worked out for me, but I still feel ghoulish.

This week, the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings have a bye. Looking ahead, the Week 7 teams on bye are the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys. Prepare now, thank yourself later.

At 9:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday, October 13, the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Chicago Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, U.K.

Week 5 was the highest scoring in terms of per-game output. We like points.

One more thing before we start: if I’m in a 10-team or a shallow 12-team league, I very well may not need the players I list except in dire times – they may not even be on rosters in those leagues. And these recommendations are for ½ and full PPR leagues. I’ll be happy to speak to non-PPR leagues in the comments.

After this week, we’re a third of the way through the season, so let’s talk about Week 6.

STARTS

Player: Michael Wilson

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Spread: -5.0 at Green Bay Packers

Win/Loss: +1.3, W/L Index 116

If my column this week resembles Matt Stiles’ “Week 6 Waivers” article, it’s because I was asked to be a part of Razzball’s Week 6 Waiver Adds & Trade Targets podcast on behalf of Matt. Wilson is one of the players Matt recommends as an add this week and I like Wilson as a flex start vs. the Packers. You may have noticed I sprinkled in links to Razzball NFL’s database tools at the top of my article: if I look at “DEF Targets Allowed,” the Packers have faced 32.6 targets per game, the 8^th most. Wide receivers get 20.0 of those targets, which is the 9^th most. Pivoting to “Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed,” the Packers allow 26.3 points per game (PPG) to wideouts, the 3^rd most. Going to the “WR Slot vs. Wide” tool, I see Michael Wilson gets 85% of his PPG out wide – one reason is he lines up wide on 78% of his snaps. Neither Eric Stokes nor Jaire Alexander are “shadow” corners, and both are giving up more than 0.30 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR). Looking at “Home vs. Away” player splits, Wilson scores 2.1 PPR PPG more on the road. Finally, the “Wins vs. Losses” player splits that I use in my column puts Wilson at an advantage in wins, but with an index of 116 (16% better in wins) the difference is slight.

There are a lot of green lights there. In addition, sports books are expecting a high-scoring game. Rain and moderate wind are in the current forecast, but not enough to change the conditions.

I’ll add that Wilson has had 22 targets over the last three games and in two of those had 12.8 and 14.4 PPR points. The only receiver on the Cards playing more snaps is Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson has a low floor – he only had 1.8 PPR points in that third matchup vs. Washington. I’m comfortable having Wilson on my roster in a moderately deep league at the current volume and this week I’ll flex him if I need a replacement for a bye, an injury, or in my case, Davante Adams.

I like this matchup even more from the Packers’ perspective, but Jayden Reed is the trusted receiver there for me. He’s already in lineups.

Player: Tyrone Tracy

Team: New York Giants

Spread: +3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals

Win-Loss: N/A

The Bengals currently have the most Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per play. They also lost CB Dax Hill for the season on Sunday. The Bengals are allowing the third-most rushing yards per game and only the Panthers have allowed more points per game. The only game they played where less than 50 points were scored was in Week 1 against the Patriots.

I like Tracy, even if Devin Singletary returns. If Singletary does not return, Tracy will be an RB 2 for Week 6. Early reports say Singletary will return to practice today in a limited role. With Singletary present, Tracy was getting around ¼ of the snaps and few touches: the opportunity this Sunday makes Tracy at least a flex for me. I expect that the Giants saw enough against Seattle to trust Tracy with an expanded role.

I have him as “N/A” for the Win/Loss tool because Week 5 was his first game with significant offensive touches.

Player: Jalen Tolbert

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Spread: +3.0 vs. Detroit Lions

Win/Loss: -2.3, W/L Index 67

The Razzball metric tools are of limited use in the case of someone like Tolbert because as a WR 3 in Dallas’ passing attack, Tolbert has been on the field nearly as much as Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb have but he’s been the fourth option behind Lamb, Cooks and Jake Ferguson. He’s only had more than five targets in a game twice in 2023 and 2024 games: in Week 2 this year when Ferguson was absent, and Sunday when Brandin Cooks was absent.

Brandin Cooks is on IR until at least Week 10.

The Detroit Lions are a pass-funnel team that is difficult to run against. Seattle had success with Kenneth Walker III in Week 4, and I expect Dallas will test them with Rico Dowdle, but I believe Dallas will inevitably have to rely on the passing game and Tolbert will be needed. The Detroit cornerbacks aren’t slouches: Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson both allow below 0.30 FP/RR, but Detroit allows the highest PPR points per game to receivers.

The two games I mentioned above where Tolbert had more than five targets? The Week 2 game was against New Orleans and the Week 5 game was against Pittsburgh, two teams with less generous pass defenses.

SITS

 Player: Khalil Shakir

Team: Buffalo Bills

Spread: -2.5 at New York Jets

Win-Loss: +3.2, W/L Index 155

 I don’t like starting receivers against the Jets. They’ve had mostly favorable matchups except for the 49ers in Week 1, but the Niners only had 221 net air yards in that game – they beat the Jets by mainly using the run.

The Jets are currently allowing 21.5 PPR PPG to receivers, the second lowest. They’re not necessarily stingier against slot receivers where Shakir lines up 75% of his snaps, but Michael Carter II is only allowing 0.15 FP/RR and he lines up in the slot 92% of the time. Add to that the game has the fourth lowest over/under on the Week 6 slate at 40.5, and I’m looking to see if I have more advantageous options at WR 3 or flex.

Win/Loss is pointing significantly upward but in this individual case, other factors steer me away.

Player: Michael Pittman Jr

Team: Indianapolis Colts

Spread: -1.0 at Tennessee Titans

Win-Loss: +1.9, W/L Index 114

 It’s hard to bench a team’s current WR1 in any matchup, especially a player likely drafted inside the top 20 of the position but consider: Michael Pittman is currently averaging 10.4 PPR PPG. The Titans allow the fewest PPG to wide receivers overall and 8.2 PPR PPG to wideouts. Pittman lines up wide 76% of his snaps and I think the Titans won’t hesitate to shadow him with LJarius Sneed who is allowing 0.14 FP/RR.

I very well may need to have Pittman in my lineup, but I hopefully have the upside play to balance out what could be a subpar performance.

Player: Christian Kirk

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: +2.5 at Chicago Bears

Win-Loss: +0.2, W/L Index 102

 I did not want to list Christian Kirk in this column again this week, but listing anyone as a sit in the passing matchup of the Los Angeles Chargers – Denver Broncos game is too on the nose, so I will go out a little more on a limb.

Sitting Kirk, the second option in the Jags’ passing game, is not an easy decision for me, but Kyler Gordon is only allowing 0.18 FP/RR and the Bears are allowing only 10.5 PPR PPG to the slot. If I want to attack them it’s run first, then go after Tyrique Stevenson who plays mostly out wide.

Something else to keep an eye on: Kirk played his fewest snaps last week. I see no evidence of an injury, but it’s an anomaly that’s worth noting.

That’s a wrap for this week. Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 6!