I’m mixing things up a little here in the pass d strategery this week. I thought I would show you the actual statistics instead of just the rankings. The “Rank” on the left side is still calculated using the average rankings so that hasn’t changed, but now you can see the numbers behind the rankings. Tell me whatcha think.

[table “48” not found /]

Tim Tebow: He really couldn’t ask for a better opponent to begin his reign of terror. He gets to return to Florida and faces the Dolphins who have given up over 22 fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks.

Ben Roethlisberger: His offensive line is finally coming around and he gets a Cardinals team giving up 2 passing touchdowns a game, 281 yards passing, and a 68% completion rate.

Marques Colston: The Colts can’t seem to stop a wide receiver to save their lives. AJ Green, Jerome Simpson, Dwayne Bowe, Preston Parker, Mike Wallace, and a whole bunch more have had their way with them.

Jordy Nelson: The Vikings have had a lot of trouble against #2 wide receivers this season and Nelson is one of those.

Ed Dickson: Ed hasn’t been great, but he’s getting targets and faces the Jags who are giving up 10 fantasy points a game to tight ends.

Dallas Clark: He had a nice game last week and made a nice one handed grab for a touchdown and gets the Saints this week who will most likely get out to a lead which will push the Colts to pass a lot.

Key:

Rank: The overall averaging ranking for each pass defense

Team: The team that is being evaluated for their defensive strength

Opp: The team with your fantasy players

QB FA: Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks

WR FA: Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers

TE FA: Fantasy points allowed to tight ends

Comp%: Completion Percentage against

Pa yds: Total passing yards given up per game

Yds/Att: Yards allowed per passing attempt

Pa TD: Passing touchdowns allowed

Opp PR: The Opposing QB’s Passer Rating

 

 

– DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average

 

  1. Brian says:
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    Doc, Hasselbeck or Ryan?

    Fred Davis or Daniels? I can’t get it right between these two.

    Thanks.

  2. stumanji says:
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    Ronnie Brown/Jerome Harrison trade voided because Harrison failed a physical.

  3. drusky says:
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    @ Doc,

    trade question:

    I give:
    Tebow (have cam), Shonne Green, Joseph Addai and Delone Carter

    I get:
    Brandon Lloyd, Daniel Thomas, Ben Watson and a backup kicker (lindell).

    I have Beanie, Best, Greene, Addai, Carter, Helu as RB’s and VJAX, harvin, l. moore, D. moore as my WR’s. I figure Daniel Thomas is an upgrade over Shonn Greene at the flex position, Lloyd is an upgrade over Harvin as WR 2, and gives me better WR depth.

    I need the TE and kicker cuz i spent all my FAAB (i have $1 left), and need some bye week replacements at those positions.

    your thoughts>

    too much? I’m putting a lot of stock in Thomas being a RB2.

  4. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    12-team, 0.5 PPR

    I own Ryan, Flacco and now Tebow.

    My WRs are Lloyd, Mike Williams, AJ Green and Denarius Moore.

    Trade Tebow for Reggie Wayne?

  5. zandercage says:
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    FLEX decision time – Antonio Brown (yeah, I still have him), Danario Alexander (yeah, I still have him too) or Damian Williams (yeah, I have him on my team). Ugh.

  6. Harry Hood says:
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    How would you rank these defenses for the next 3 weeks?

    Cowboys (STL, @PHI, SEA)
    Saints (IND, @STL, TB)
    Texans (@TEN, JAC, CLE)

  7. Brad says:
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    Not going to ask who to start based on this data. Just want to say I think it is great! I can do my own analeeesis. Great idea and helpful, thanks.

  8. Project badass says:
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    .5 PPR, non-keeper

    Please rank for this week for WR/TE: James Jones, Baldwin, Fred Davis

  9. Lubey says:
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    Hello Chet!

    With all the byes this week, Im having a tough time putting my starting lineup together. I cant figure out my flex so here is what I have:

    PPR
    Ingram vs. Indy
    Mike Thomas vs Balt.
    Fred Davis @ Carolina

    I also have Starks and JStew. I would say that Im leaning Ingram but since it is a PPR league Im considering Davis w/ Beck this week. Help me out brotha! Thanks as always!!

  10. theguarantee says:
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    On a stacked 16 teamer, with WR’s Andre J, M Wallace, S Holmes, M Crabtree and G Little. RB’s Mendenhall, MJD, D Murray and Ridley. Would you give up MJD and M Wallace for ADP and M Thomas? .5 PPR and one RB/WR flex per week.

    Also, Jared Cook or Ed Dickson at TE this week?

  11. elwood blues says:
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    lost out on Murray at RB to protect against Best being out.
    I picked up Morris.. but someone just dropped Hardesty.. stick with Morris or go to Hardesty?

  12. herschel says:
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    @Doc: due to injuries, bye week and general suckiness, i need to choose a flex for my ppr league of these guys. who do you like (and by like i mean dislike least)?

    d. alexander @ dal
    b. tate @ ten

    or i could pick up one of these guys from ww:

    j. gaffney @ car
    g. salas @ dal
    e. dickson @ jax
    massaquoi vs sea

    thanks.

  13. cplat says:
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    Two questions place these three in order for rest of year. Bowe-Nicks-Fitz

    Then, would you trade any one of those three and Matthews for Ray Rice.

    Thanks

  14. ringo says:
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    What do u think of this trade: WR Roddy White & RB Beanie Wells RB LeSean McCoy & WR Eric Decker… Thank You in advance, you guys always respond, its just so rootin-tootin helpful gosh darn it

  15. ringo says:
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    What do u think of this trade: WR Roddy White & RB Beanie Wells RB LeSean McCoy & WR Eric Decker… Thank You in advance, you guys always respond, its just so rootin-tootin helpful gosh darn it

  16. ringo says:
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    What do you think of this trade: WR Roddy White & RB Beanie Wells FOR RB LeSean McCoy & WR Eric Decker… Thank You in advance, you guys always respond, its just so rootin-tootin helpful gosh darn it (sorry for reposting, it wouldnt let me type FOR the way I originally intended)

  17. rascal says:
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    trade question….

    would you trade Ryan and Lloyd for Tebow and Colston?

    Also have Rivers, and other WRs are Dez, Steve Johnson, Holmes, and Manningham (start 3).

  18. The G says:
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    Doc,

    I’ve been lucky with waiver wire acquisitions. For the Flex (PPR), who do i start: Greg Little vs. SEA, D. Murray vs. Rams, or James Starks vs. Vikings?

    And if Greg Little is favorable and one the other RB’s is a must start, i cld sit Dez Bryant or G. Jennings for Little and use the flex for Murray or Starks…

    Thanks!

  19. Art Vandelay says:
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    Who do you like better the rest of the way – Fitzgerald or Austin (non-PPR)?

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @The G: I like Murray

    @rascal: Tough call. I think it’s a fair trade, but not sure how much it really does for you.

    @ringo: I would in PPR.

    @cplat: Nicks, Fitz, Bowe. I would trade Mathews and Bowe for Rice. I love Mathews but he’s having trouble staying healthy.

    @herschel: Hmmm, I think in PPR Salas may be the safest, but it’s a crappy crapshoot.

    @elwood blues: Since the Ronnie Brown trade didn’t go through i would stick with Morris

    @theguarantee: It’s not a bad trade but I would hate to see you drop from Wallace to your backup. But really I think I’d probably still do it because AP is a beast.

    @Lubey: I like Ingram this week. They should get a lead.

    @Project badass: Davis, Jones, Baldwin

    @Harry Hood: With Mario out I’d probably lean Dallas or NO. Both have a decent schedule. I’d probably lean Dallas.

    @zandercage: I’d lean Williams, but Wallace didn’t practice today so keep an eye on that.

    @Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): I wouldn’t.

    @drusky: I don’t like it for you.

    @Brian: Davis/Ryan

  21. Chibbs says:
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    Pick 2 ….

    S. Holmes, D. Baldwin, DHB

    Thanks!

  22. Jake says:
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    Last man standing pool (can’t choose the same team twice, which leads to some tough late decisions). Only 2 cards left.

    Best bet this week: DAL over STL, BAL over JAX, or….*gulp* DEN over MIA?

  23. friar says:
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    Andre Johnson or Roddy White from today onward?

  24. barker says:
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    sorry i asked this on another post but i’m trying to get it reversed and am wondering if its even worth it on my side — is this trade even good for me they are all saying i am ripping him off but now i think its the other way around

    is this trade vetoeable ?? it was vetoed in a 12 team league

    i give garcon j stew a hern for rivers tolbert heyward bey

    he has heath miller as his best TE and is in last place and he has tebow

    my team after trade rivers colston mike williams tb manningham rice cj2k graham decker bn schaub heyward bey tolbert lance moore felix hardesty

    really need an answer cause im a little pissed

    should i just pick up and try for rodgers ++ for rice +++ from another owner

  25. Jason says:
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    I have Romo and Dallas def. Would you play Murray too? Three players the same weekend worries me, but it is STL. I could go Battle instead.

  26. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Art Vandelay: That’s close. I’d feel safer with Austin right now.

    @Chibbs: DHB, Holmes

    @Jake: Baltimore

    @friar: AJ

    @barker: Yeah, that’s inane that was vetoed. You “win” the trade, but it works for both teams and is in no way collusion. I’d be pissed too. I rather not give Rice for Rodgers.

  27. Adam says:
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    Need 2 to start this week in standard league…decker,little,Holmes,or Murray
    Thanks!!!!

  28. Salty Balty says:
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    Campbell’s injury heading into bye weeks for Ryan and Vick really hurt me (2 QB league). Scrambling to find his replacement and stuck deciding between Beck and Whitehurst. Who should I pick up? I’m leaning toward Whitey.

    Also, assuming Julio Jones plays, who would you start Jones or Harvin?

    Thanks.

  29. MrHappyTime says:
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    Who do you like better out of Battle and Benson the rest of the season? Also, would you drop Julio Jones for Greg Little or Steve Breaston? I’m in a bind with Nicks on a bye and Marshall’s status in the air. Thanks!

  30. Benny says:
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    @Doc Couple of quick trade questions for you:

    From here on out, who’d you rather have? Mendenhall or Bradshaw

    In a ppr league, would you trade Gore/Marshall for CJ2k/AJ Green?

  31. atcdav says:
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    need a defense. I have Saints, but they have underwhelmed and disappointed all year. even with this great matchup I have no confidence in them getting points. We score yards against, sacks, FR, INTs, TDs. Raiders are available, Seahawks, KC and my lovely Saints. Who would you go with?

  32. atcdav says:
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    scratch Raiders, someone grabbed them

  33. fred haase says:
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    Little, JStew, Battle, for 2 flex spots ppr league? So soory to see Fitz going against top pass defense…

  34. Plainview says:
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    Roethlisberger or Tebow?

  35. Johnny Ringo says:
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    Doc – I’ve been trying to think of how to interpret this data but it’s tough b/c it’s often misleading. For example, Miami is letting up 284 passing yards/game but it’s skewed by Tom Brady’s Tom Bradyfest of 517 yards in week 1. Take out him and you’re looking at about 235 yards/game including a couple respectable QB’s in Schaub and Rivers.

    So I started making a spreadsheet finding the average pa yds/game and the standard deviation of these figures to try to get a set “standard deviations from the mean” in actually gauging defense. Check this out for the Miami defense:
    Brady: +1.652
    Rivers: -.004
    Schaub: -.375
    McCoy: -.541
    Sanchez: -.304

    So besides Brady they’ve actually held every other QB to less than their average game. But even this doesn’t tell the whole story when someone like Sanchez only attempts 25 passes.

    Long story short, what do you think about a spreadsheet that finds the average and standard deviation of yards/attempt per QB, then ranks defenses based on how many standard deviations below average they’ve been able to hold opposing QB’s? Would you use a different measure? Any insight is appreciated. If I make it I’ll be sure to send you a copy ;)

    My fight’s not with you, Holliday.

  36. Random Collmenter says:
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    You like McFadden + Michael Bush for Mathews + Larry Fitz?

    .5 PPR.

    RBs are CJ2K, Torain, Morris.

    WRs are Calvin, Austin, Percy, Little, Nelson.

    Thanks!

  37. Random Collmenter says:
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    could throw in Percy/Nelson/Little on the McFaddy side too…

  38. timmy riggins says:
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    @Doc: looks like jahvid best could be out indef. w/concussion. would you drop b.tate for k.williams .5ppr league? thanks

  39. Random Collmenter says:
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    ok, nevermind the last post, sorry! the trade is now as follows:

    I give McFadden/Michael Bush/Torain/Percy

    I get Mathews/Larry Fitz

    Other RBs are CJ2K, Ringer, Morris

    Other WRs are Calvin, Austin, Nelson, Little

    .5 PPR. You like? I’m 2 – 4 and need some wins, and Mathews and Larry have already had their byes. I’m a little thin at RB now, but my lineup would be set from here on out barring any injuries: Calvin/Austin, CJ/Mathews, and Larry in the flex.

  40. t2green2 says:
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    Doc, Who would you rather have the rest of the way in PPR?

    Crabtree or Bey

  41. Oy says:
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    Doc,

    Hightower is sitting in the waiver wires of our 12 team ppr league. Should I scoop him up?

  42. DeeMan says:
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    Hi Doc,
    I was offered Darren Sproles for Miles Austin. Is he crazy or am I for declining that?

  43. JD says:
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    I like having the stats, I think you should do it this way every week

  44. Robert says:
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    Trade question. PPR League. Have Rice, Hillis, Tolbert, Jacobs, Carter and now Maurice Morris. We start 2 RBs, and a flex. Welker is on a bye, so starting Colston and Jordy Nelson at WR, with Morris at flex.

    Got an offer to give up Morris for Hardesty as a handcuff to Hillis. Wasn’t planning on playing Hillis, this wkend, going to go with Rice and Tolbert.

    Rest of season, I think Hillis will be fine, Hardesty will have little value and that Morris is a better flex option and has more value, especially if Tolbert continues to get pushed out by Mathews.

    Trade for Hardesty or not?

  45. Random Collmenter says:
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    btw to clarify my other receivers are Miles Austin and David Nelson (as opposed to collie and jordy).

    thanks!

  46. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Robert: Nah, there’s a better chance that Best doesn’t play than Hillis.

    @JD: Thanks

    @DeeMan: I’d want Austin

    @Oy: Nah

    @t2green2: Crabs

    @Random Collmenter: I’d really hate to give up DMC, but I can see going for it in the hopes that Mathews stays healthy and plays like he should.

    @timmy riggins: I could see that

    @Johnny Ringo: Sounds good. Throw me an email at [email protected]

    @Plainview: Teebs

    @atcdav: I’d go with the Saints, but it’s not pretty

    @Benny: Mendy Gore/Marsh

    @MrHappyTime: Benson and keep Jones for sure

    @Salty Balty: Not looking good for Jones, but if he were to go I’d say him. I’d lean Beck.

    @fred haase: Little/Battle

    @Adam: Tough. Murray, Decker

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