Week 7 Start vs. Sit: Howelling at the Moon

I’m back, Razzball Nation! I need to begin by thoroughly apologizing for my absence last week. As I was making my way to the computer to submit last week’s start vs. sit, I tripped on an empty can of Chef Boyardee lying on the floor and went sprawling across the room, inadvertently ripping the PC power cord out of the wall and straining my left glute.

Life happens, and while I won’t make excuses, we need to get back to business pronto. If your roster looks like many of mine or resembles anything close to that of my pasta-can-littered floor, your fantasy team has finally hit the WTF (Where’s The Franzia?) stage of the season. Anthony Richardson is out for the year. Justin Jefferson is stuck on your IR. You lost J.K. Dobbins right out of the gate. And now, Joe Burrow is on bye, and Calvin Ridley got you 1.5 points last night.

BAD! But! But! Do not fret! There’s still a full slate of Sunday games to get right, and it all begins with making the right calls before kickoff. Week 7 Start vs. Sit begins right now.

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Quarterback

START: Sam Howell. Here are Howell’s numbers across the last three weeks: 829 yards, six passing touchdowns, one interception, and a 70.0% completion percentage. In that span, he has finished as QB13, QB5, and QB7. Now, he hits the road to take on the New York Giants, who are allowing the fifth-most yards per attempt (7.3) in the league along with eight passing touchdowns. It might sound crazy, but he has the floor of a back-end QB1 this week.

SIT: Kirk Cousins. Cousins gets to play at home where he has yet to finish outside of the top-10 quarterbacks this season, but has to go against the stout San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks third in yards per attempt and has allowed just five passing touchdowns in six games. Game script could be his only saving grace should San Francisco pull ahead early.

CONCERNED ABOUT: Jared Goff. Despite daunting matchups the last two weeks against Carolina and Tampa Bay, Goff has performed as the QB4 overall in consecutive games. That provides optimism that he may be more-or-less matchup-proof, but the Baltimore Ravens lead the NFL with 4.5 yards per attempt and just four passing touchdowns allowed. That pass defense is legit and could result in a final score hovering around 17-14, thus limiting Goff’s fantasy potential.

Running Back 

START: Zach Evans. Evans currently sits at RB27 in terms of ECR in half-PPR formats. In the absence of Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers, Evans is expected to see a higher workload against a Steelers defense that is allowing the sixth-most yards per carry (4.8) so far this season and ranks 22nd in terms of opponent RB fantasy scoring. Evans has only seen four carries so far in his NFL career but was a strong runner at Ole Miss in 2022, averaging an impressive 6.6 YPC in the 2022 season. The opportunity is there for Evans to see 10-plus carries, and is worth the start in a week where the RB position seems slightly depleted.

HAT TIP: Kareem Hunt. Last week, Hunt saw 15 touches (12 carries, three receptions) and converted that to an RB10 finish with 15.0 half-PPR points. He’ll need to be more efficient with his touches against Indianapolis, as he mustered just 71 total yards (albeit against the 49ers) and finished as an RB1 solely because he was able to find pay dirt. His role should continue to increase this week against a Colts defense that has not been as impressive as expected. Indy is allowing 4.2 YPC, eight rushing touchdowns, and five runs of 20-plus yards this season — not to mention what Hunt is capable of through the air.

SIT: James Cook. Cook is the current RB18 in PPR scoring and has failed to put up double-digit points in back-to-back weeks after putting up 10-plus in the first four weeks of the season. He’s now facing a Patriots-run defense that ranks third in the NFL in YPC and is the 19th defense in terms of opponent RB fantasy scoring. In two games last season against the Patriots, Cook put up 16.5 and 7.1 PPR points, the first performance heavily lifted by his six receptions, whereas Cook is only putting up an average of 2.33 receptions on an average of three targets per game this season. With only one touchdown in 2023, it’s hard to imagine that he will find the endzone in the Bills’ Week 7 matchup in Foxborough.

Wide Receiver

START: Terry McLaurin. It’s been disappointing for Scary Terry owners in 2023, as he has finished inside WR2 territory just once in six games. That could change in Week 7 when Howell, McLaurin, and the Commanders travel into MetLife Stadium for a battle against the Giants. McLaurin totaled 175 yards on 14 catches (18 targets) in two games against New York last season, and he has a good matchup this week against Adoree’ Jackson, who ranks as the 109th-best cornerback in the league per PFF (Deonte Banks ranks 83rd). If there’s a week, it should be this one.

HAT TIP: Drake London. Last week? WR7. The week prior? WR21. That makes three WR2 finishes or better for London in six games, and his performance (and target share) is trending in the right direction. He’s seen no fewer than seven targets across the last three weeks featuring a whopping 21 across the previous two. Tampa’s pass defense is solid, but London will push double-digit targets again in Week 7 and finish as a top-20 receiver.

SIT: Mike Evans. After finishing as WR56 and WR44 the last two weeks, Evans is likely to be shadowed by Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell this week. Receivers have struggled to produce respectable fantasy numbers against Terrell this season, leading us to believe this could be a Chris Godwin game even if the Buccaneers come out on top. Evans is no more than a Flex for me in Week 7.

Tight End

START: Luke Musgrave. The Denver Broncos defense has been the worst in the league against tight ends this year, ranking last in receiving yards and fantasy points allowed to the position. Although Musgrave has only produced seven half-PPR points in the last two matchups, he should return to TE1 range for the third time this season in Week 7.

SIT: Pat Freiermuth. I was tempted to write a hat tip for Freiermuth, but after seeing him downgraded to a limited participant on Thursday, it just doesn’t make sense. It’s a great matchup for him if he can fully go, but it’s my expectation that he either sees limited snaps or is held out an extra week.