Time for another edition of my DFS and Prop Plays for Week 8. It seems like these articles come up every few days now. Before we know it, the NFL season will be over. Where has the time gone? Rack up your wins now before it’s too late. I’ll do my best to help us both achieve that.
But before we get into the matchups, I’m going to kick the podium again because it’s working for me. Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE. I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
Paying Up
- Player: Jordan Love
- Game: Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- DK: $7,100 / FD: $8,900
For the second week in a row, I’m rolling with Jordan Love here. Last week, he put up 220 yards and 3 TDs against the 6th worst defense in allowing fantasy points to QBs. This week he draws the worst defense, as Jacksonville is giving up an average of 27 fantasy points to QBs. In two previous games this season against bottom-four QB defenses, he threw for 4 TDs in both. Currently, the Packers are favored by 4.5 on the road and based on our Win/Loss Player Splits tool, Love’s Win PPR rating is +6 over his Loss PPR rating (21.6 vs 15.7). That means, he’s taking care of business when he should be.
- Player: Jordan Mason
- Game: Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
- DK: $7,900 / FD: $8,900
The 49ers suffered a big loss last week when Brandon Aiyuk went down with a bad knee injury. The 3-4 49ers will need to lean on their playmakers to avoid falling out of the playoff race right before Christian McCaffrey returns after the upcoming bye week. Enter Jordan Mason who has been nursing injuries of his own, but he continues to show up and carry the load. A disappointing Dallas team comes to town, sporting the 2nd worst run defense in the league. Our Adjusted Line Yard metric confirms the choice RB matchup here, ranking the matchup versus the Dallas defense as the 2nd best for RBs. Our Home/Road Player Splits tool agrees as well, showing Mason as 47% better at home.
- Player: Ja’Marr Chase
- Team: Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
- DK: $8,500 / FD: $9,200
As our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows, the Eagles are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to slot WRs. The Bengals tend to run all their WRs through the slot but the one that contributes the most? You guessed it, Ja’Marr Chase. With Tee Higgins popping up on the injury report Friday, Joey B. should be ultra focused on getting the ball to his best WR.
- Player: Brock Bowers
- Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
- DK: $6,100 / FD: $7,400
Another week in the books and the Chiefs still give up more points to TE than any other defense. Who’s the next beneficiary? That would be Brock Bowers. Bowers continues to lead all TEs in receiving yards and is now the clear #1 target in the Raider’s passing game. He’s been fairly consistent regardless of who is throwing him the ball, so look for another good one this week with Minshew. Could we get another TE though? He only has one on the season but we’ve seen a noticeable increase in the number of RZ targets so it’s just a matter of time. My money says it’s this week. Perhaps I should consider an “anytime TD” prop?
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Bo Nix
- Game: Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos
- DK: $5,600 / FD: $6,900
Another week, another rookie QB in the bargain bin. Bobby and I talked about Bo Nix in our Wednesday night Streamers and Flexes show. He may not be throwing for a ton of yards, but he’s supplementing his numbers with his legs (16 rushes for 136 yards in his last two games) and he’s facing a defense giving up the 4th most scoring to QB. Also, the data set may still be small, but our Home/Road Player Splits tool suggests Nix is 36% better in the mile high air than on the road.
- Player: Brian Robinson Jr.
- Game: Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
- DK: $6,400 / FD: $7,600
I had Tank Bigsby in this spot last week, a recommendation anchored by a 4th best matchup in our Adjusted Line Yard metric. I hope you took my advice as he ran through the Patriots defense for 118 yards and 2 TDs. This week’s 4th best Adjusted Line Yard metric belongs to the Commanders and Brian Robinson Jr. He’s not exactly “bargain bin” cheap but the RB position is expensive this week and he comes in at 21st and 17th in salary on DK and FD, respectively. He’s getting the vast majority of the RB work in the Red Zone and has come away with TDs in 5 of 6 games played. The Commanders will need to establish the run and may be without their top rusher, QB Jayden Daniels. Backup QB Marcus Mariota can contribute some in that department, but he’s no Daniels. All signs are pointing to another solid effort by BRob!
- Player: Jerry Jeudy
- Team: Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
- DK: $4,800 / FD: $6,00
There’s plenty of drama going on in the city by the lake, with Deshaun Watson on IR and Amari Cooper now residing in Buffalo. Those changes open the door for Jerry Jeudy to step up into a prominent role. It also clears a path for Jameis Winston at QB, who is not shy about tossing the pigskin. Our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows the Ravens DEF allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs, especially to wideouts where Jeudy is scoring 89% of his fantasy points. Certainly there is some risk here but at the bargain basement costs required, he provides a great opportunity to save a little dough for other positions.
- Player: David Njoku
- Team: Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
- DK: $5,100 / FD: $5,500
Staying in the same game, David Njoku got a whopping 14 targets last week and now draws the defense with the 3rd most TE targets. Those targets are translating into the 3rd most receptions (6.43) and 2nd most yards (76.57). I’d better add him to my prop plays below too.
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Kirk Cousins (Passing Yards, Passing TDs): Remember that breakout game Cousins had a few weeks ago where he passed for 504 yards and 4 TDs? Which defense was that against? Right, it was the Buccaneers, who happen to be on the schedule again this week. He won’t need to match those stats for the Falcons to handle business this week, but see where the over/unders are at your favorite site.
Rachaad White (Rush + Receiving Yards, Receptions): It’s all hands on deck for the Buccaneers with both Godwin and Evans out. Would anyone be surprised if White leads the team in receptions this week? I wouldn’t.
Javonte Williams (Rushing Yards, Anytime TD): Bobby and I talked about this one as well our Wednesday night Streamers and Flexes show. Our adjusted line yard metric shows the Broncos with the best RB-DEF line matchup to exploit this week. Javonte returns home after posting 88 yards and 2 TDs in the Bayou last week. If it ain’t broke…
Romeo Doubs (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): After needing a week to get his head straight in week 5, Doubs has 14 targets, 143 yards and 2 TDs. This week, he’ll enjoy a nice matchup against the Jaguars in which our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows as allowing the 4th most fantasy points to WRs.
Andrei Iosivas (Receptions, Yards): With the prospects of Higgins sitting this one out Sunday, look for Iosivas to become the defecto #2 in the Bengals offense. He had 17 targets in the first three games, where Higgins missed most of the time, but only 7 targets since. Phily is still allowing the 3rd most to slot WRs, a role Iosivas could shine in Higgins’ absence.
Darnell Mooney (Receptions, Yards): Looking at our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool, the Bucs have the 5th highest WR PPG allowed with 61% going to wideouts. Mooney shows as the likely beneficiary of that stat with 56% of his fantasy points out wide, according to our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool.
Brock Bowers (Receptions, Yards & Anytime TD): Bowers has 8 or more receptions in each of his last three games. He should get plenty of looks against the friendliest TE-DEF matchup for the week.
David Njoku (Receptions, Yards): The justification for this one is above. If you’re ambitious, throw in an anytime TD and take advantage of Njoku going back-to-back.
BONUS: You don’t need me to tell you this but look at props for all the Dolphins. With Tua back under center, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane and even Raheem Mostert are in play.
That’s All Folks
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!