Week 8 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss Players Splits

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This week, I’m going to speak briefly about teammates.

In Week 7, against my better instincts, I recommended Amari Cooper as a start, even though he changed teams midweek from the Cleveland Browns to the Buffalo Bills. There are a lot of moving parts on a football field and in my estimation, it’s one of the more difficult sports to change teams because in part each team has different terminologies and formations they use. But I decided that since Cooper was an upper-level player and the Bills were an upper-level team, they would find a way to get the ball in the end zone together.

That very well may not have happened without the intervention of a teammate.

On the play Cooper scored, he was out of place in the formation. Enter Keon Coleman who was lined up outside Cooper, noticed the mistake and instructed Cooper on the correction.

A heady play for any teammate, and impressive for a rookie in particular to speak up to a ten-year veteran.

I will be a fan of Keon Coleman for as long as he plays because of little things like that.

We get a bye week from bye weeks and international games before the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers are off in Week 9 and the final international game in Munich, Germany in Week 10.

Let’s look at some WR3s and flexes for Week 8.

 

STARTS

Player: Jaylen Waddle

Team: Miami Dolphins

Spread: -3.5 vs Arizona Cardinals

Win/Loss: +6.5, W/L Index 177

I’ll start with a condition: Tua Tagovailoa returned to practice today to see if he can return in Week 8. If he does, fantasy players should rejoice as all the Dolphins we paid so richly for have suffered in his absence. If Tyler Huntley starts another game (or Tim Boyle has to start), I’ll park an alternate player to start in the comments at the bottom of the Win/Loss Players Splits table.

This may be the last time I can use Waddle as a start here when Tua plays for a while, and I love the matchup: the outside corners for Arizona, Starling Thomas and Max Melton, are part of a unit that is allowing nearly 20 PPR points per game to outside receivers in 2024.

I think the spread is still a bit conservative until there’s a clearer picture on Tua’s Week 8 status, but in my eyes there’s a chance a team that has been hemmed in by key injuries breaks out this week, and Waddle is averaging 19.3 PPR points in wins above 8 points.

That’s the first time I’ve been able to use the “blowout” section of the W/L table. It’s kinda fun.            

Player: Romeo Doubs

Team: Green Bay Packers

Spread: -7.0 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Win-Loss: +2.6, W/L Index 129

A couple of quick facts: if you click on the first link underneath the column title (“Slot vs Wide PPG Allowed”) you’ll see the Jaguars are allowing the most PPR PPG to wideouts (26.1) in 2024. Romeo Doubs lines up wide 90% of the time.

I’m a little dubious selecting a Packers receiver on a given week as they’re all talented and there are only so many footballs to go around, but I love this matchup for Doubs vs. Tyson Campbell (0.28 fantasy points per route run) and Ronald Darby (0.33 FP/RR).

The W/L Index of 129 makes me feel even better.

Player: Rashod Bateman

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Spread: -9.0 at Cleveland Browns

Win/Loss: +4.1, W/L Index 211

This is the farthest down the rankings I’ve gone to date as Bateman sits in the WR5 range of most rankings. It will not be the first or last time you’ll think I’ve lost my mind. I’m also not overreacting to one tremendous Monday Night game. Well, maybe a bit.

I’ve had Bateman as a guy to watch for a few years now. He’s had 3 touchdowns in his last 5 games, including 2 in his last 3 to go along with 250 yards. He’s averaging 18.76 yards per reception this season.

He’s not a volume play, but the 49-yard touchdown he had Monday was one of the best deep balls I’ve seen Lamar Jackson throw.

Cleveland’s outside corners (Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward) are part of a unit allowing 19.5 PPR PPG to wideouts and Bateman lines up outside 90% of the time. The Ravens held a walk-through today, but Zay Flowers did not participate in it after tweaking his ankle Monday.

I’ve liked Bateman for a while and guys smarter than I am do as well. This is me on a limb, but caution isn’t pretty. And Lamar looked on a mission Monday.

W/L favors Bateman in wins but in this case, Bateman has yet to bust out, so I take that with at least a small grain of salt.

 

SITS

 Player: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Spread: +3.5 at Miami Dolphins

Win-Loss: +4.7, W/L Index 154

 I’m sure people will be thrilled I’m telling them to sit their (likely) second- or third-round pick, but Miami is giving up the fewest PPR PPG to receivers in 2024 at 22.2. Harrison lines up wide on 77% of his snaps and is facing a shadow situation opposite Jalen Ramsey who allows 0.14 FP/RR in 2024.

This is risky as I do think there is a possibility of a shootout, but I like the matchups for Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Trey McBride, and James Conner better. And Harrison is ranked low enough this week that he’s in my domain.

I’m not telling anyone to bench Harrison for Rashod Bateman, but there are plenty of other WR3/flex players in the domain I feel better about. Feel free to ask me about any of them.

Player: Alexander Mattison

Team: Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: +10.0 vs Kansas City Chiefs

Win-Loss: -2.1, W/L Index 79

 I hate to rain on the Alexander Mattison redemption tour. He’s been terrific, one of the Raiders’ offensive bright spots. He’s playing for a heavy underdog, and he has a W/L Index of 79, favoring stronger performances in losses.

What is my problem?

The opponent: the Chiefs. They’re allowing 90.2 yards per game (including a Week 1 122-yard performance by Lamar Jackson) and only two rushing touchdowns and that’s with none of their games getting out of hand, forcing a nearly all-passing situation.

Their Chiefs’ front seven is miserable to run against. I know anything goes in this rivalry, but if the Raiders are going to make this a competitive game, their defense is going to have to play out of their minds.

Player: Diontae Johnson

Team: Carolina Panthers

Spread: +10.0 vs Denver Broncos

Win-Loss: +2.6, W/L Index 124

 Apologies for the low-hanging fruit, but sometimes the red flags pile up.

Sadly, Andy Dalton was in a car accident yesterday and he’s banged up enough that he’s already been ruled out for Week 8 per head coach Dave Canales, which means we’ll likely see Bryce Young this weekend.

I wouldn’t like the matchup with Denver even if Dalton was healthy, and even if Pat Surtain II is not able to return this weekend. With the safeties Denver has, Riley Moss and Levi Wallace will be fine on the outside where Johnson lines up 81% of the time. The 13.3 PPR PPG Denver allows to wideouts is the 4^th-lowest in 2024.

The W/L meter does not favor Johnson in losing scenarios, but he’s only won once in Carolina: it’s too small a sample here. Either way, I’m looking for another option.

 

That’s a wrap for this week. Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 8!