Wow, what a Week 8 in Fantasy Football. We saw so many anytime TDs, so many big-time games across the board. I hope you got a piece of the action. I sure did. Many of my predictions last week hit in a big way. I did have some misses as well. C’mon Javonte! As good as it was, Week 8 is in the past and it’s time to move on. Let’s Go!
But before we get into the matchups, I’m going to kick the podium again because it’s working for me. Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE. I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
Paying Up
- Player: Jalen Hurts
- Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
- DK: $7,800 / FD: $9,300
If you’re going to pay a premium for QB this week, look no further than Jalen Hurts. After a pair of road games in which he scored a total of seven TDs and zero INTs, the struggling Jaguars, allowing the most fantasy points to QBs, come to town. He’s not passing for a ton of yards but there’s still no defense against the tush-push. Saquon owners don’t like it but it’s certainly effective.
- Player: Alvin Kamara
- Game: New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
- DK: $7,800 / FD: $8,800
Alvin Kamara is happy (new contract) and healthy. His prize, a matchup against the friendliest defense against RBs. The Panthers are as solid as Styrofoam, yielding a cool 25.5 fantasy points to RBs. The Broncos twin-backfield of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for 91 last week but neither are Alvin Kamara. Look for a big day here!
- Player: Jayden Reed
- Team: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
- DK: $6,400 / FD: $7,300
As our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows, the Lions defense is still the #1 most vulnerable to slot WRs. Enter Jayden Reed, who is scoring 77% of his fantasy points from the slot position. If the Packers stay true to form, he’ll get a carry or two as well. He comes in as the #25/#20 priced WR in DK and FD, respectively. So, he’ll save you a little salary for the rest of your build.
- Player: Cade Otton
- Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
- DK: $4,500 / FD: $6,100
This feels like Groundhog’s Day. I’m going to keep picking on the Chiefs defense with TEs until they climb out of the fantasy scoring basement. If my prediction holds, it won’t be this week. We know the Bucs are still missing their top two weapons, but Cade Otton picked up the slack admirably last week with a 10 target, 9 reception, 81 yards and 2 TD game. I’ll give the Chiefs credit though, they did hold Brock Bowers to 58 total yards, but it was still 11 yards per reception on average, so not much credit.
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Derek Carr
- Game: New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
- DK: $5,600 / FD: $7,000
How about a stack! Derek Carr is back, and he has a healthy complement of skilled players. We already talked about Alvin Kamara. Chris Olave is also finally healthy and has a 100+ yard game under his belt to prove it. Even Taysom Hill is healthy. Carr faced the Panthers at home in Week 1 and passed for 200 yards and three TDs. Our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows Carr is a slightly better play at home but not enough to diminish the enthusiasm of playing one of the friendliest defenses vs the QB.
- Player: Chase Brown
- Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
- DK: $5,900 / FD: $6,300
Chase Brown has been steadily taking over the majority of the workload for the Bengals. With Zack Moss now doubtful, that workload is about to increase in this must-win tilt versus the Raiders. A quick look at our Home/Road Player Splits tool agrees, finding Chase as a slightly better play in the Queen City! For their part, the Raiders are in the bottom-third of the league in allowing RB TDs. Perhaps I should have saved this for the Prop Plays. Maybe I’ll just do both!
- Player: Michael Pittman Jr
- Team: Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
- DK: $5,900 / FD: $5,800
The top wideout matchup in our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool this week favors the Colts. The Vikings give up a whopping 26.8 fantasy points to wideouts. The best news of all – Joe Flacco is back under center. It should be no surprise that Pittman’s best 3 games this season line up with the 3 games started by Flacco. Although more of a slot WR, don’t sleep on Josh Downs (DK: $6,000 / FD: $6,900) either.
- Player: Evan Engram
- Team: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
- DK: $5,300 / FD: $6,400
How can you not love Evan Engram this week? Remember the stretch of games he had last season when Christian Kirk was injured? Had he gotten into the end zone a couple times, he would have ended the year as TE#1. Fast forward to now and the same situation presents itself. With fewer weapons available, expect Engram to act more as a slot receiver with Brenton Strange lining up tight. Oh, did I mention the Eagles allow the 5th most fantasy points to slot receivers?
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Kirk Cousins (Passing Yards, Passing TDs): If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I had Kirk Cousins here last week and he delivered with 276 yards and 4 passing TDs. The Cowboys haven’t been putting up a lot of resistance to QBs either so let’s make it two for two.
Alvin Kamara (Rush + Receiving Yards, Anytime TD): Have I picked on the Panthers too much? NOPE! Kamara should smash in this one, especially with Carr back in the huddle. Don’t get too crazy with the rushing prop, but the TD prop is practically a guarantee.
Chase Brown (Rushing Yards, Anytime TD): As promised, I’m going to play Brown’s props too. He does average a few targets per game, and with Moss likely out this should increase a little, so I don’t blame you going with a modest Rush + Receiving prop. However, I’m going to stick with the rushing alone, along with a TD of course.
Rome Odunze (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): With D.J. Moore getting the bulk of the defensive attention, look for Odunze to take advantage of the 8th most generous defense as listed in our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool. Why Odunze and not Keenan Allen? Well, the Cardinals allow a majority of WR points to wideouts, where Odunze tends to roam.
A.J. Brown (Yards, Anytime TD): A.J. Brown is averaging 20 points per game, with 82% coming out wide. The Jaguars are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points out wide. At the time of this writing, Brown’s yardage prop is 80.5, a number he’s been over every game this season.
Darnell Mooney (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): Looking at our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool, the Cowboys have the 7th highest wideout scoring, allowing almost 21 fantasy points per game. Mooney shows as the likely beneficiary of that stat with 62% of his fantasy points out wide, according to our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool.
David Njoku (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): Njoku was cleared to go today and comes in after back-to-back TD scoring games. He also has 28 targets over the last three games.
That’s All Folks!
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
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Until next time, my friends!
