What To Expect From This Year’s Rookie Tight Ends

After last year’s blockbuster draft class broke all sorts of records (as predicted in last year’s version of this article), we now return to your regular programming. This year sees little fantasy-relevant quality with one enormous exception. As always, hit us up with your questions and thoughts in the comments.

We’ll be looking back at rookie tight end production over the last decade (more for early rounders), evaluating their fantasy finishes and also when they first moved into a fantasy friendly role. As many tight ends can play 100% of snaps without so much as receiving a target, we considered a player’s first fantasy-relevant week as the week when they first ran at least 20 routes. 30 routes is generally a necessary number to be a top 10 tight end these days, but a player is at least startable with 20. Please note, routes run data was only available back to 2012 and missing for some players since then.

1^st round rookies (eg. Brock Bowers):

First round rookie tight ends are a rare and wonderful thing. Only fourteen have been drafted in the last 16 years and while we have grown accustomed to elite production thanks to Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid. in most years the first tight end won’t come off the board until Day 2. Brock Bowers was the fourth-highest drafted tight end since 2007 and he frankly could have gone a lot higher. That he went to a team who didn’t even need a tight end just highlights his quality.

First round tight ends have struggled to initially establish themselves. Outside Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram, who essentially played as big-bodied wide receivers, most will finish as a mid-low TE2 at best. Dalton Kincaid also fit this mould but didn’t break out until Dawson Knox got injured. Brock Bowers won’t have that problem. He’ll be the clear starting tight end in Vegas and has serious Top 5 upside as the potential number two option for Gardner Minshew.

Late 2^nd round rookies (eg. Ben Sinnott)

While tight ends in the late second round have traditionally struggled to make an initial impact, Pat Freiermuth showed there is the outside chance of an impactful rookie season. It’s unlikely that Ben Sinnott is at a level where he can make that happen though. Not only is he behind veteran Zach Ertz, he’s even been playing behind John Bates during the pre-season. I wouldn’t be drafting Sinnott in redraft leagues despite the perceived upside.

3^rd round rookies (eg. Tip Reiman)

3^rd round tight ends are so common we only needed to go back 7 years to get a good sample size. It’s not a pretty story either. While there’s plenty of familiar names here, very few have made an impact in their rookie seasons, in fact most barely had a role. Tip Reiman is primarily a blocking tight end and is currently playing behind both Trey McBride and Elijah Higgins. His upside is a Darnell Washington-style season. Don’t draft him.

4^th round rookies (eg. Ja’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson, Erick All, AJ Barner, Cade Stover, Jared Wiley)

Day 3 has seen a lot of quality tight ends drafted. Heck in 2022 alone we saw five players I currently have ranked inside my Top 40 drafted in the fourth round alone. But none of them had an impressive rookie season. I expect Ja’Tavion Sanders in particular to be a solid tight end moving forward but I want none of these rookies in my redraft teams this year.

6^th round rookies (eg. Tanner McLaughlan)

Tanner McLaughlan won’t be replicating Kaden Smith’s bizarre late season breakout as he’d need at least three injuries ahead of him to become relevant. In fact it’s far more likely that by the time you read this he’ll be off the Bengals’ roster. You can definitely do better.

7^th round rookies (eg. Jaheim Bell and Devin Culp)

I’m not even going to put together a table for this. The highest finish for a 7^th round tight end since 2014 is Tommy Sweeney. He was the TE97 back in 2019. Amazingly, he and Geoff Swaim have been the only last round tight ends in the last decade to as much as sniff fantasy-relevance at any point in their careers. These guys aren’t even worth touching in dynasty leagues.

Every year, rookie tight ends rise up expert rankings and ADP charts as pre-season buzz inflates their perceived draft value. Don’t be fooled. There’s far better veteran tight ends available in the later rounds who are significantly more likely to break out. Also look at the names in these tables and consider whether it’s really worth trading reliable veterans for dynasty draft picks that will turn into these guys. Outside Brock Bowers, I’d be looking elsewhere for redraft tight ends.

Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week we’ll be looking at redraft quarterback rankings.