This year’s wide receiver class is absolutely loaded with talent. From the big three early picks to the flurry of late Day 1 and early Day 2 picks, there’s a heap of rookie receiving talent available in your drafts this season. To find out what to expect, we’ll look at rookie receiver production over the last 5 to 17 years (depending on the round). We’ll also look at when they became a starter (defined as over 70% of snaps) and their rookie production after starting for the first time. As always, hit us up with your questions and thoughts in the comments.
Top 10 Draft Pick rookies (eg. Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze)
Few early picks have elite fantasy seasons with Ja’Marr Chase really breaking the mould in 2021 with his huge rookie breakout. Most Top 10 draft picks will finish as a WR2/WR3 but this year’s class is particularly special. Marvin Harrison Jr very much fits in the AJ Green/Julio Jones mould and they both finished in the Top 16 in year one; plus we know rookies are given opportunities far earlier these days. Malik Nabers is expected to finish as in the WR2 region as he’ll likely start from Week 1 but doesn’t have the offense to elevate him higher. Rome Odunze is the real concern. While he should start Week 1, he’s got a lot of target competition and I’d expect more of a Drake London season than a Jaylen Waddle season.
Player |
Year |
Draft Pos. |
Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
1st week over 70% snaps |
Fantasy Finish after first start |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calvin Johnson |
2007 |
1.02 |
WR36 |
? |
– |
Amari Cooper |
2015 |
1.04 |
WR17 |
1 |
– |
Sammy Watkins |
2014 |
1.04 |
WR33 |
1 |
– |
AJ Green |
2011 |
1.04 |
WR16 |
? |
– |
Ja’Marr Chase |
2021 |
1.05 |
WR5 |
1 |
– |
Corey Davis |
2017 |
1.05 |
WR86 |
4 |
WR88 |
Justin Blackmon |
2012 |
1.05 |
WR43 |
1 |
– |
Jaylen Waddle |
2021 |
1.06 |
WR14 |
3 |
WR12 |
Julio Jones |
2011 |
1.06 |
WR12 |
? |
– |
Mike Williams |
2017 |
1.07 |
WR136 |
– |
– |
Kevin White |
2015 |
1.07 |
Injured |
– |
– |
Mike Evans |
2014 |
1.07 |
WR13 |
1 |
|
Darius Heyward-Bey |
2009 |
1.07 |
WR113 |
? |
– |
Drake London |
2022 |
1.08 |
WR38 |
2 |
WR33 |
Tavon Austin |
2013 |
1.08 |
WR54 |
– |
– |
John Ross |
2017 |
1.09 |
– |
– |
– |
Ted Ginn |
2007 |
1.09 |
WR83 |
? |
– |
Garrett Wilson |
2022 |
1.10 |
WR22 |
8 |
WR14 |
DeVonta Smith |
2021 |
1.10 |
WR30 |
1 |
– |
Michael Crabtree |
2009 |
1.10 |
WR36 |
– |
– |
Late 1st round rookies (eg. Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette):
Let’s be very clear, none of this year’s rookies are Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb. While the talent level of this year’s class is arguably higher than last year’s first round picks, you’re unlikely to see a true boom season. I think Brian Thomas and Xavier Worthy are best placed to replicate the success of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison, while Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette are likely to have to wait a while before they become every down players. The history of later first round wide receivers should certainly scare you off reaching for any of these four.
Player |
Year |
Draft Pos. |
Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
1st week over 70% snaps |
Fantasy Finish after first start |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CeeDee Lamb |
2020 |
1.17 |
WR20 |
1 |
– |
Treylon Burks |
2022 |
1.18 |
WR85 |
15 |
WR78 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
2023 |
1.20 |
WR45 |
8 |
WR37 |
Kadarius Toney |
2021 |
1.20 |
WR79 |
4 |
WR67 |
Nelson Agholor |
2015 |
1.20 |
WR104 |
1 |
– |
Quentin Johnston |
2023 |
1.21 |
WR74 |
8 |
WR55 |
Jalen Reagor |
2020 |
1.21 |
WR87 |
2 |
WR88 |
Will Fuller |
2016 |
1.21 |
WR61 |
1 |
– |
Zay Flowers |
2023 |
1.22 |
WR25 |
1 |
– |
Justin Jefferson |
2020 |
1.22 |
WR8 |
2 |
WR4 |
Josh Doctson |
2016 |
1.22 |
WR167 |
– |
– |
Jordan Addison |
2023 |
1.23 |
WR27 |
6 |
WR23 |
Laquon Treadwell |
2016 |
1.23 |
WR180 |
– |
– |
DJ Moore |
2018 |
1.24 |
WR39 |
7 |
WR24 |
Brandon Aiyuk |
2020 |
1.25 |
WR31 |
2 |
WR27 |
Marquise Brown |
2019 |
1.25 |
WR44 |
3 |
WR60 |
Calvin Ridley |
2018 |
1.26 |
WR22 |
9 |
WR25 |
Breshad Perriman |
2015 |
1.26 |
Injured |
– |
– |
Rashad Bateman |
2021 |
1.27 |
WR73 |
10 |
WR45 |
Phillip Dorsett |
2015 |
1.29 |
WR116 |
16 |
– |
N’Keal Harry |
2019 |
1.32 |
WR132 |
11 |
WR73 |
Early 2nd round rookies (eg. Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Lynn Polk)
The early second round has been a real sweet spot for fantasy production over the last couple of seasons but that hasn’t always been the case. While Christian Watson had a massive late-season breakout in 2022, it’s very rare for players to make a late-season surge, with just as many players regressing after starting week 1. This makes projecting Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey and Ja’Lynn Polk very difficult. Coleman was my WR4 among the rookies coming out of the draft and everything I’ve seen has verified my perspective that he’ll be the Bills WR1 in Week 1. This hasn’t always been a good thing though and you have to go back to 2016 and Michael Thomas to find a player who truly made the most of his Week 1 starting opportunity. Ladd McConkey is also nominally a starter but there’s concerns about that offense and his snap count as a slot receiver and that certainly increases the possibility of a disappointing season. Ja’Lynn Polk meanwhile isn’t even playing ahead of KJ Osborn and Tyquan Thornton at the moment so for most redraft leagues, he shouldn’t be drafted. As you can see from the list, that doesn’t mean Polk will bust long-term. Just that he might need time to develop into a star.
Player |
Year |
Draft Pos. |
Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
1st week over 70% snaps |
Fantasy Finish after first start |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Mingo |
2023 |
2A |
WR81 |
1 |
– |
Christian Watson |
2022 |
2A |
WR44 |
10 |
WR9 |
Wan’Dale Robinson |
2022 |
2A |
WR110 |
7 |
WR100 |
John Metchie |
2022 |
2A |
Injured |
– |
– |
Elijah Moore |
2021 |
2A |
WR43 |
1 |
– |
Tee Higgins |
2020 |
2A |
WR24 |
3 |
WR16 |
Michael Pittman |
2020 |
2A |
WR79 |
2 |
WR73 |
Laviska Shenault |
2020 |
2A |
WR49 |
6 |
WR73 |
KJ Hamler |
2020 |
2A |
WR81 |
3 |
WR78 |
Deebo Samuel |
2019 |
2A |
WR36 |
1 |
– |
Courtland Sutton |
2018 |
2A |
WR49 |
2 |
WR46 |
Dante Pettis |
2018 |
2A |
WR68 |
1 |
– |
Christian Kirk |
2018 |
2A |
WR55 |
1 |
– |
Zay Jones |
2017 |
2A |
WR86 |
1 |
– |
Curtis Samuel |
2017 |
2A |
WR125 |
9 |
WR109 |
Sterling Shepard |
2016 |
2A |
WR35 |
1 |
– |
Michael Thomas |
2016 |
2A |
WR11 |
1 |
– |
Devin Smith |
2015 |
2A |
WR137 |
3 |
WR129 |
Dorial Green-Beckham |
2015 |
2A |
WR64 |
10 |
WR47 |
Devin Funchess |
2015 |
2A |
WR82 |
10 |
WR62 |
Late 2nd round rookies (eg. Adonai Mitchell)
We’re now very much into crap shoot territory. While AJ Brown, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf are all notable names who were useful WR3s in their first seasons (with Brown far better late in 2019) there’s a far longer list of players who were essentially useless for fantasy in their rookie years. Adonai Mitchell is a classic boom-bust option but we saw last year the surprise success of Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice so Mitchell will certainly have the opportunity to replicate their success. I’d expect much of his best work may come later in the season though.
Player |
Year |
Draft Pos. |
Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
1st week over 70% snaps |
Fantasy Finish after first start |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jayden Reed |
2023 |
2B |
WR28 |
7 |
WR7 |
Rashee Rice |
2023 |
2B |
WR21 |
13 |
WR14 |
Marvin Mims |
2023 |
2B |
WR86 |
– |
– |
Tyquan Thornton |
2022 |
2B |
WR97 |
7 |
WR98 |
George Pickens |
2022 |
2B |
WR43 |
1 |
– |
Alec Pierce |
2022 |
2B |
WR63 |
7 |
WR78 |
Skyy Moore |
2022 |
2B |
WR120 |
– |
– |
Rondale Moore |
2021 |
2B |
WR57 |
9 |
WR87 |
Dee Eskridge |
2021 |
2B |
WR145 |
14 |
WR133 |
Tutu Atwell |
2021 |
2B |
– |
– |
– |
Terrace Marshall |
2021 |
2B |
WR138 |
4 |
WR161 |
Chase Claypool |
2020 |
2B |
WR25 |
3 |
WR28 |
Van Jefferson |
2020 |
2B |
WR128 |
– |
– |
Denzel Mims |
2020 |
2B |
WR105 |
7 |
WR82 |
AJ Brown |
2019 |
2B |
WR23 |
10 |
WR10 |
Mecole Hardman |
2019 |
2B |
WR64 |
1 |
– |
JJ Arcega-Whiteside |
2019 |
2B |
WR131 |
2 |
WR129 |
Parris Campbell |
2019 |
2B |
WR121 |
– |
– |
Andy Isabella |
2019 |
2B |
WR125 |
– |
– |
DK Metcalf |
2019 |
2B |
WR35 |
1 |
– |
Anthony Miller |
2018 |
2B |
WR59 |
7 |
WR38 |
James Washington |
2018 |
2B |
WR131 |
2 |
WR130 |
DJ Chark |
2018 |
2B |
WR139 |
8 |
WR140 |
Juju Smith-Schuster |
2017 |
2B |
WR30 |
3 |
WR27 |
Tyler Boyd |
2016 |
2B |
WR62 |
1 |
– |
3rd round rookies (eg. Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan, Luke McCaffrey)
This is where things really get ugly, with Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson notably bucking the trend by being solid fantasy options in their rookie seasons. Tank Dell and Josh Downs also looked good at times last year but both finished as WR4s. Even players like Bryan Edwards and Dyami Brown were Week 1 starters and still couldn’t break the top 140 wide receivers by the end of the season. So ideally we’re looking for players in messy situations who can earn a role early in the season. Jalen McMillan is the top option in the running for a starting spot as he battles Trey Palmer for the Buccaneers’ WR3 spot. That’s as good as it gets with the others buried down the depth chart and hoping for a mid-season emergence. That means none of these guys are worth drafting in redraft leagues.
Player |
Year |
Draft Round |
Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
1st week over 70% snaps |
Fantasy Finish after first start |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tank Dell |
2023 |
3 |
WR38 |
2 |
WR39 |
Jalin Hyatt |
2023 |
3 |
WR97 |
6 |
WR92 |
Cedric Tillman |
2023 |
3 |
WR121 |
5 |
WR102 |
Josh Downs |
2023 |
3 |
WR44 |
1 |
– |
Michael Wilson |
2023 |
3 |
WR65 |
1 |
– |
Tre Tucker |
2023 |
3 |
WR98 |
– |
– |
Velus Jones |
2022 |
3 |
WR146 |
– |
– |
Jalen Tolbert |
2022 |
3 |
WR195 |
– |
– |
David Bell |
2022 |
3 |
WR116 |
15 |
WR124 |
Danny Gray |
2022 |
3 |
WR197 |
– |
– |
Josh Palmer |
2021 |
3 |
WR89 |
13 |
WR42 |
Dyami Brown |
2021 |
3 |
WR143 |
1 |
– |
Amari Rodgers |
2021 |
3 |
WR180 |
– |
– |
Nico Collins |
2021 |
3 |
WR97 |
13 |
WR56 |
Anthony Schwartz |
2021 |
3 |
WR137 |
– |
– |
Bryan Edwards |
2020 |
3 |
WR151 |
1 |
– |
Devin Duvernay |
2020 |
3 |
WR114 |
11 |
WR132 |
Diontae Johnson |
2019 |
3 |
WR41 |
3 |
WR31 |
Jalen Hurd |
2019 |
3 |
Injured |
– |
– |
Terry McLaurin |
2019 |
3 |
WR25 |
1 |
– |
Miles Boykin |
2019 |
3 |
WR106 |
– |
– |
Michael Gallup |
2018 |
3 |
WR77 |
6 |
WR60 |
Tre’Quan Smith |
2018 |
3 |
WR76 |
6 |
WR73 |
Cooper Kupp |
2017 |
3 |
WR24 |
4 |
WR21 |
Taywan Taylor |
2017 |
3 |
WR102 |
– |
– |
ArDarius Stewart |
2017 |
3 |
WR159 |
– |
– |
Carlos Henderson |
2017 |
3 |
Injured |
– |
– |
Chris Godwin |
2017 |
3 |
WR85 |
9 |
WR60 |
Kenny Golladay |
2017 |
3 |
WR76 |
12 |
WR61 |
Chad Williams |
2017 |
3 |
WR160 |
– |
– |
Amara Darboh |
2017 |
3 |
WR148 |
– |
– |
Day 3 rookies (eg. Troy Franklin, Javon Baker, Devontez Walker, Johnny Wilson and more)
The list below doesn’t look too bad, until you realise it’s only the players in the last five years who finished in the top 100 after their first start. There were another 73 players who didn’t even make the list. That means under 20% of Day 3 picks will be even a Top 100 player at any time during their rookie season. Eeeeek. So while Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St Brown, Darius Slayton and Gabe Davis make taking a late rounder look appealing, it very rarely pans out. 2023 was a bit of an exception with five players at least making this list but Nacua was the only true star. This year, Troy Franklin has been a dynasty darling but he’s buried behind even fellow rookie Devaughn Vele in the pre-season. Javon Baker has also been massively over-hyped and Devontez Walker is at best the WR7. Oddly sixth rounder Johnny Wilson is most likely to win a starting job as he sits behind just Parris Campbell in the battle for the Eagles’ WR3 job. Meanwhile seventh rounder Brendan Rice shockingly started last weekend’s pre-season game ahead of both DJ Chark and Quentin Johnston but he’s still impossible to draft in redraft. Just ignore this group altogether.
Player |
Year |
Draft Round |
Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
1st week over 70% snaps |
Fantasy Finish after first start |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Romeo Doubs |
2022 |
4 |
WR66 |
3 |
WR64 |
Amon-Ra St Brown |
2021 |
4 |
WR30 |
4 |
WR19 |
Gabriel Davis |
2020 |
4 |
WR54 |
3 |
WR49 |
Keke Coutee |
2018 |
4 |
WR96 |
4 |
WR85 |
Antonio Callaway |
2018 |
4 |
WR62 |
2 |
WR58 |
DaeSean Hamilton |
2018 |
4 |
WR108 |
12 |
WR38 |
Dontayvion Wicks |
2023 |
5 |
WR68 |
14 |
WR34 |
Puka Nacua |
2023 |
5 |
WR4 |
1 |
– |
Collin Johnson |
2020 |
5 |
WR102 |
11 |
WR70 |
Darnell Mooney |
2020 |
5 |
WR50 |
4 |
WR53 |
Hunter Renfrow |
2019 |
5 |
WR61 |
2 |
WR56 |
Darius Slayton |
2019 |
5 |
WR37 |
6 |
WR24 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
2018 |
5 |
WR67 |
4 |
WR47 |
Demario Douglas |
2023 |
6 |
WR64 |
8 |
WR60 |
Trey Palmer |
2023 |
6 |
WR72 |
3 |
WR72 |
AT Perry |
2023 |
6 |
WR97 |
10 |
WR58 |
Kelvin Harmon |
2019 |
6 |
WR94 |
10 |
WR64 |
Equanimious St Brown |
2018 |
6 |
WR110 |
5 |
WR85 |
Olabisi Johnson |
2019 |
7 |
WR87 |
7 |
WR70 |
Marcell Ateman |
2018 |
7 |
WR130 |
10 |
WR81 |
There’s a lot of rookie wide receivers who will tempt you in your redraft leagues. Their new names make them appealing to some but don’t pay their inflated prices. Trust in the known commodities for starters and fill your bench with upside. Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week, I’ll be looking at the wide receivers.