LOGIN

This year’s wide receiver class is absolutely loaded with talent. From the big three early picks to the flurry of late Day 1 and early Day 2 picks, there’s a heap of rookie receiving talent available in your drafts this season. To find out what to expect, we’ll look at rookie receiver production over the last 5 to 17 years (depending on the round). We’ll also look at when they became a starter (defined as over 70% of snaps) and their rookie production after starting for the first time. As always, hit us up with your questions and thoughts in the comments.

Top 10 Draft Pick rookies (eg. Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze)

Few early picks have elite fantasy seasons with Ja’Marr Chase really breaking the mould in 2021 with his huge rookie breakout. Most Top 10 draft picks will finish as a WR2/WR3 but this year’s class is particularly special. Marvin Harrison Jr very much fits in the AJ Green/Julio Jones mould and they both finished in the Top 16 in year one; plus we know rookies are given opportunities far earlier these days. Malik Nabers is expected to finish as in the WR2 region as he’ll likely start from Week 1 but doesn’t have the offense to elevate him higher. Rome Odunze is the real concern. While he should start Week 1, he’s got a lot of target competition and I’d expect more of a Drake London season than a Jaylen Waddle season.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Calvin Johnson

2007

1.02

WR36

?

Amari Cooper

2015

1.04

WR17

1

Sammy Watkins

2014

1.04

WR33

1

AJ Green

2011

1.04

WR16

?

Ja’Marr Chase

2021

1.05

WR5

1

Corey Davis

2017

1.05

WR86

4

WR88

Justin Blackmon

2012

1.05

WR43

1

Jaylen Waddle

2021

1.06

WR14

3

WR12

Julio Jones

2011

1.06

WR12

?

Mike Williams

2017

1.07

WR136

Kevin White

2015

1.07

Injured

Mike Evans

2014

1.07

WR13

1

 

Darius Heyward-Bey

2009

1.07

WR113

?

Drake London

2022

1.08

WR38

2

WR33

Tavon Austin

2013

1.08

WR54

John Ross

2017

1.09

Ted Ginn

2007

1.09

WR83

?

Garrett Wilson

2022

1.10

WR22

8

WR14

DeVonta Smith

2021

1.10

WR30

1

Michael Crabtree

2009

1.10

WR36

 

Late 1st round rookies (eg. Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette):

Let’s be very clear, none of this year’s rookies are Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb. While the talent level of this year’s class is arguably higher than last year’s first round picks, you’re unlikely to see a true boom season. I think Brian Thomas and Xavier Worthy are best placed to replicate the success of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison, while Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette are likely to have to wait a while before they become every down players. The history of later first round wide receivers should certainly scare you off reaching for any of these four.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

CeeDee Lamb

2020

1.17

WR20

1

Treylon Burks

2022

1.18

WR85

15

WR78

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

2023

1.20

WR45

8

WR37

Kadarius Toney

2021

1.20

WR79

4

WR67

Nelson Agholor

2015

1.20

WR104

1

Quentin Johnston

2023

1.21

WR74

8

WR55

Jalen Reagor

2020

1.21

WR87

2

WR88

Will Fuller

2016

1.21

WR61

1

Zay Flowers

2023

1.22

WR25

1

Justin Jefferson

2020

1.22

WR8

2

WR4

Josh Doctson

2016

1.22

WR167

Jordan Addison

2023

1.23

WR27

6

WR23

Laquon Treadwell

2016

1.23

WR180

DJ Moore

2018

1.24

WR39

7

WR24

Brandon Aiyuk

2020

1.25

WR31

2

WR27

Marquise Brown

2019

1.25

WR44

3

WR60

Calvin Ridley

2018

1.26

WR22

9

WR25

Breshad Perriman

2015

1.26

Injured

Rashad Bateman

2021

1.27

WR73

10

WR45

Phillip Dorsett

2015

1.29

WR116

16

N’Keal Harry

2019

1.32

WR132

11

WR73

 

Early 2nd round rookies (eg. Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Lynn Polk)

The early second round has been a real sweet spot for fantasy production over the last couple of seasons but that hasn’t always been the case. While Christian Watson had a massive late-season breakout in 2022, it’s very rare for players to make a late-season surge, with just as many players regressing after starting week 1. This makes projecting Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey and Ja’Lynn Polk very difficult. Coleman was my WR4 among the rookies coming out of the draft and everything I’ve seen has verified my perspective that he’ll be the Bills WR1 in Week 1. This hasn’t always been a good thing though and you have to go back to 2016 and Michael Thomas to find a player who truly made the most of his Week 1 starting opportunity. Ladd McConkey is also nominally a starter but there’s concerns about that offense and his snap count as a slot receiver and that certainly increases the possibility of a disappointing season. Ja’Lynn Polk meanwhile isn’t even playing ahead of KJ Osborn and Tyquan Thornton at the moment so for most redraft leagues, he shouldn’t be drafted. As you can see from the list, that doesn’t mean Polk will bust long-term. Just that he might need time to develop into a star.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Jonathan Mingo

2023

2A

WR81

1

Christian Watson

2022

2A

WR44

10

WR9

Wan’Dale Robinson

2022

2A

WR110

7

WR100

John Metchie

2022

2A

Injured

Elijah Moore

2021

2A

WR43

1

Tee Higgins

2020

2A

WR24

3

WR16

Michael Pittman

2020

2A

WR79

2

WR73

Laviska Shenault

2020

2A

WR49

6

WR73

KJ Hamler

2020

2A

WR81

3

WR78

Deebo Samuel

2019

2A

WR36

1

Courtland Sutton

2018

2A

WR49

2

WR46

Dante Pettis

2018

2A

WR68

1

Christian Kirk

2018

2A

WR55

1

Zay Jones

2017

2A

WR86

1

Curtis Samuel

2017

2A

WR125

9

WR109

Sterling Shepard

2016

2A

WR35

1

Michael Thomas

2016

2A

WR11

1

Devin Smith

2015

2A

WR137

3

WR129

Dorial Green-Beckham

2015

2A

WR64

10

WR47

Devin Funchess

2015

2A

WR82

10

WR62

 

Late 2nd round rookies (eg. Adonai Mitchell)

We’re now very much into crap shoot territory. While AJ Brown, Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster and DK Metcalf are all notable names who were useful WR3s in their first seasons (with Brown far better late in 2019) there’s a far longer list of players who were essentially useless for fantasy in their rookie years. Adonai Mitchell is a classic boom-bust option but we saw last year the surprise success of Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice so Mitchell will certainly have the opportunity to replicate their success. I’d expect much of his best work may come later in the season though.

Player

Year

Draft Pos.

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Jayden Reed

2023

2B

WR28

7

WR7

Rashee Rice

2023

2B

WR21

13

WR14

Marvin Mims

2023

2B

WR86

Tyquan Thornton

2022

2B

WR97

7

WR98

George Pickens

2022

2B

WR43

1

Alec Pierce

2022

2B

WR63

7

WR78

Skyy Moore

2022

2B

WR120

Rondale Moore

2021

2B

WR57

9

WR87

Dee Eskridge

2021

2B

WR145

14

WR133

Tutu Atwell

2021

2B

Terrace Marshall

2021

2B

WR138

4

WR161

Chase Claypool

2020

2B

WR25

3

WR28

Van Jefferson

2020

2B

WR128

Denzel Mims

2020

2B

WR105

7

WR82

AJ Brown

2019

2B

WR23

10

WR10

Mecole Hardman

2019

2B

WR64

1

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2019

2B

WR131

2

WR129

Parris Campbell

2019

2B

WR121

Andy Isabella

2019

2B

WR125

DK Metcalf

2019

2B

WR35

1

Anthony Miller

2018

2B

WR59

7

WR38

James Washington

2018

2B

WR131

2

WR130

DJ Chark

2018

2B

WR139

8

WR140

Juju Smith-Schuster

2017

2B

WR30

3

WR27

Tyler Boyd

2016

2B

WR62

1

 

3rd round rookies (eg. Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan, Luke McCaffrey)

This is where things really get ugly, with Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson notably bucking the trend by being solid fantasy options in their rookie seasons. Tank Dell and Josh Downs also looked good at times last year but both finished as WR4s. Even players like Bryan Edwards and Dyami Brown were Week 1 starters and still couldn’t break the top 140 wide receivers by the end of the season. So ideally we’re looking for players in messy situations who can earn a role early in the season. Jalen McMillan is the top option in the running for a starting spot as he battles Trey Palmer for the Buccaneers’ WR3 spot. That’s as good as it gets with the others buried down the depth chart and hoping for a mid-season emergence. That means none of these guys are worth drafting in redraft leagues.

Player

Year

Draft Round

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Tank Dell

2023

3

WR38

2

WR39

Jalin Hyatt

2023

3

WR97

6

WR92

Cedric Tillman

2023

3

WR121

5

WR102

Josh Downs

2023

3

WR44

1

Michael Wilson

2023

3

WR65

1

Tre Tucker

2023

3

WR98

Velus Jones

2022

3

WR146

Jalen Tolbert

2022

3

WR195

David Bell

2022

3

WR116

15

WR124

Danny Gray

2022

3

WR197

Josh Palmer

2021

3

WR89

13

WR42

Dyami Brown

2021

3

WR143

1

Amari Rodgers

2021

3

WR180

Nico Collins

2021

3

WR97

13

WR56

Anthony Schwartz

2021

3

WR137

Bryan Edwards

2020

3

WR151

1

Devin Duvernay

2020

3

WR114

11

WR132

Diontae Johnson

2019

3

WR41

3

WR31

Jalen Hurd

2019

3

Injured

Terry McLaurin

2019

3

WR25

1

Miles Boykin

2019

3

WR106

Michael Gallup

2018

3

WR77

6

WR60

Tre’Quan Smith

2018

3

WR76

6

WR73

Cooper Kupp

2017

3

WR24

4

WR21

Taywan Taylor

2017

3

WR102

ArDarius Stewart

2017

3

WR159

Carlos Henderson

2017

3

Injured

Chris Godwin

2017

3

WR85

9

WR60

Kenny Golladay

2017

3

WR76

12

WR61

Chad Williams

2017

3

WR160

Amara Darboh

2017

3

WR148

 

Day 3 rookies (eg. Troy Franklin, Javon Baker, Devontez Walker, Johnny Wilson and more)

The list below doesn’t look too bad, until you realise it’s only the players in the last five years who finished in the top 100 after their first start. There were another 73 players who didn’t even make the list. That means under 20% of Day 3 picks will be even a Top 100 player at any time during their rookie season. Eeeeek. So while Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St Brown, Darius Slayton and Gabe Davis make taking a late rounder look appealing, it very rarely pans out. 2023 was a bit of an exception with five players at least making this list but Nacua was the only true star. This year, Troy Franklin has been a dynasty darling but he’s buried behind even fellow rookie Devaughn Vele in the pre-season. Javon Baker has also been massively over-hyped and Devontez Walker is at best the WR7. Oddly sixth rounder Johnny Wilson is most likely to win a starting job as he sits behind just Parris Campbell in the battle for the Eagles’ WR3 job. Meanwhile seventh rounder Brendan Rice shockingly started last weekend’s pre-season game ahead of both DJ Chark and Quentin Johnston but he’s still impossible to draft in redraft. Just ignore this group altogether.

Player

Year

Draft Round

Fantasy Finish (PPR)

1st week over 70% snaps

Fantasy Finish after first start

Romeo Doubs

2022

4

WR66

3

WR64

Amon-Ra St Brown

2021

4

WR30

4

WR19

Gabriel Davis

2020

4

WR54

3

WR49

Keke Coutee

2018

4

WR96

4

WR85

Antonio Callaway

2018

4

WR62

2

WR58

DaeSean Hamilton

2018

4

WR108

12

WR38

Dontayvion Wicks

2023

5

WR68

14

WR34

Puka Nacua

2023

5

WR4

1

Collin Johnson

2020

5

WR102

11

WR70

Darnell Mooney

2020

5

WR50

4

WR53

Hunter Renfrow

2019

5

WR61

2

WR56

Darius Slayton

2019

5

WR37

6

WR24

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2018

5

WR67

4

WR47

Demario Douglas

2023

6

WR64

8

WR60

Trey Palmer

2023

6

WR72

3

WR72

AT Perry

2023

6

WR97

10

WR58

Kelvin Harmon

2019

6

WR94

10

WR64

Equanimious St Brown

2018

6

WR110

5

WR85

Olabisi Johnson

2019

7

WR87

7

WR70

Marcell Ateman

2018

7

WR130

10

WR81

 

There’s a lot of rookie wide receivers who will tempt you in your redraft leagues. Their new names make them appealing to some but don’t pay their inflated prices. Trust in the known commodities for starters and fill your bench with upside. Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week, I’ll be looking at the wide receivers.