Why Ashton Jeanty Will Be A Star: Analyzing 20 Years of Fantasy Football Data

This year’s bumper crop of running backs will have plenty of booms and busts so valuing these players correctly is the key to fantasy football success. To find out what you should expect from Ashton Jeanty and friends, I’ll be looking at the career hit rates of players drafted in the ranges of this year’s rookies, categorizing them based on their career fantasy production both in the short- and long-term. I’ll judge players based on their peak success and their longevity to create an overall picture of wide receiver hit rate. Also make sure you check out my dynasty and rookie rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates. You can also follow hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown and on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn if you have any questions.

I looked at fantasy production from all running backs drafted since 2011, though I looked as far back as 2004 for the earlier picks to get a better sample size. Players were placed into one of 8 categories:

Superstars: A top 5 fantasy finish and 5+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Studs: A top 10 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Starters: A top 24 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Backups: A top 36 fantasy finish and 3+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Solid players: A top 60 fantasy finish and 3+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Booms: A top 10 fantasy finish and less than 3 years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Values: A top 60 fantasy finish and 2-3 years of fantasy-relevant production

Bust: Less than 2 years of fantasy-relevant production and no top 10 finishes

I also ignored any players who are too early in their careers to be fairly categorized. This included all players drafted in 2024. You’ll notice that my longevity cutoffs are lower than for wide receivers. This is to reflect the shorter career spans of running backs.

The full results are listed at the bottom of this article.

Top 20 Picks (Ashton Jeanty)

Every running back drafted in the top 20 since 2013 has at least one top five fantasy finish and at least 6 years of fantasy relevant production. This is, without doubt, the most predictable, projectable outcome of all rookie footballers. As a result, Ashton Jeanty will almost certainly be a star for fantasy football. After all, look at the company he is joining. Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. In fact, in the last ten years, the only running back to finish as the fantasy RB1 that wasn’t drafted in the top 20 was Jonathan Taylor. Ashton Jeanty must be the first pick in every rookie draft and is a no-doubt first round dynasty selection outside superflex leagues.

Late 1^st-Early 2^nd Round Picks (Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyeon Henderson)

NFL teams don’t draft running backs on day 1 or early on day 2 if they don’t plan to use them. A lot. But unlike top 20 picks, it hasn’t historically always worked out that way. Guys like Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel have had to work their way up the pecking order while the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Javonte Williams have disappointed despite plenty of opportunities. But there’s still plenty of superstar upside with Breece Hall, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs all logging top 5 fantasy finishes. So, what should we expect from this year’s rookies? I think projecting immediate fantasy fireworks will lead to disappointment, but I’d be surprised if all three aren’t at least top 20 fantasy running backs within the next couple of years. And there’s a good chance at least one booms. As for which? My money is on Omarion Hampton, but the other two certainly can’t be discounted.

Mid-Late 2^nd round picks (RJ Harvey)

RJ Harvey was selected just 22 picks after TreVeyeon Henderson but the difference in anticipated fantasy production is vast. Players drafted in this range are nearly ten times more likely to bust than their earlier counterparts and that doesn’t even include the tragedy that was Jonathon Brooks. And yet, the upside remains. In fact, significantly more superstars were drafted in the mid-late 2^nd round than in the remainder of the draft combined! We’re talking big names like Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte and many more. So, RJ Harvey does have plenty of upside, but I will likely have zero shares in fantasy. He’s undersized, a poor blocker, a middling pass catcher and likely to end up in a disappointing committee in Denver before too long. Yes, his situation indicates a serious boom opportunity, but I’m not sold on his talent so I’m being cautiously pessimistic on Harvey.

3^rd round picks (Kaleb Johnson)

Third round running backs lack the upside of second rounders, but they’re still usually drafted as fantasy contributors, with the majority likely to finish in the top 30 at some stage in their careers. But you’re far more likely to end up with a role player than an every down superstar, even if you do hit on an NFL starter. That’s been the case with smaller, explosive runners like De’Von Achane, Tyjae Spears and Antonio Gibson but it’s been even more common with early-down bangers like Brian Robinson, Tank Bigsby and Zack Moss. These guys are valuable contributors to their real-life NFL teams but are less productive in PPR fantasy leagues due to their lack of pass-game involvement. That will likely be the case with Kaleb Johnson, who profiles as a big, downhill runner who is a mediocre blocker and pass-catcher. These skills can be trained but ultimately, I expect Johnson will remain in a committee, initially with Jaylen Warren and maybe Kenneth Gainwell. So expect a cap of potential Top 20 fantasy output rather than a league winning superstar.

4th round picks (Bhayshul Tuten, Cam Skatterbo, Trevor Etienne, Woody Marks, Jarquez Hunter, Dylan Sampson)

Bucky Irving was a real find for fantasy last year, but don’t get over-excited. Even the earliest Day 3 running backs are nearly twice as likely to bust as their Day 2 counterparts. While names like Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller stand out, there are significantly more in the Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong and Hassan Haskins bust group. Interestingly, there have been even more disappointments in recent years, though last year’s class showed a lot of potential with Irving exploding and Ray Davis and Isaac Guerendo high-valued backups. So, while Cam Skatterbo is already going as early as the 8^th round in best ball drafts this year, I personally wouldn’t be touching him. These guys will all enter the season as backups and need the right mix of luck and talent to find a fantasy relevant role. Don’t overspend on them, but in dynasty Skatterbo, Woody Marks and Jarquez Hunter are great bench stashes.

5^th round picks (Jordan James, Jaydon Blue, DJ Giddens)

This time last year, I shouted out Tyrone Tracy as the most likely late rounder to boom and that went pretty well, so I’m going back to that well. Jaydon Blue is in a very weak backfield, with Javonte Williams far from a clear-cut lead back and Miles Sanders almost washed. The Cowboys are screaming out for a lead runner and have a history of giving opportunities to Day 3 running backs (remember Tony Pollard?). But what are the odds of success? History suggests pretty low. Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and Chase Brown did buck the trend but even they took a season or two as backups before earning the starting role. Nevertheless, I do think Blue has plenty of value and upside and I don’t mind DJ Giddens as a bench stash in dynasty either.

6^th/7^th round picks (Ollie Gordon, Devin Neal, Brashard Smith, Kyle Monangai etc.)

I bundled the later Day 3 rookies into one category as they’re statistically quite similar. This is usually a dead zone for other fantasy positions, with most players drafted here special teams fodder. That isn’t the case for running backs though, with the likes of Isiah Pacheco, Latavius Murray and Chris Carson finding moderate success in the last decade. It’s hard to love any of this year’s late round rookies given the super high bust rate though. Nevertheless, I will stump for Brashard Smith. Every year, my good friend Kiwi gives me his one pick for a late round rookie breakout. His last two have been Puka Nacua and Tyrone Tracy so I take him seriously. And this year, he loves the Kansas City runner. In a weak backfield with question marks over Pacheco’s health, Kareem Hunt’s age and Elijah Mitchell’s, well, everything, Smith could start as a Jerick McKinnon-style receiving back before emerging into an every down role. But understand, as with all players in this range, the bust likelihood is huge. Never give up even a weak fantasy asset for someone in this range.