Christian Kirk might be Stephon Diggs in a suped-up offense and finding other WR values in the desert
Much noise has been made in fantasy circles about the Arizona Cardinals and the potential for a new-look, explosive offense in 2019. Some of the reasons to be excited for what Kliff Kingsbury will bring to the NFL were discussed in part 1 . Despite a lackluster 2018, David Johnson has seen his ADP remain at RB5/6 and Kyler Murray is being taken as a low end QB1 in the 8th round of redraft. A rookie QB has not been drafted that high since Robert Griffin III in 2011. But what about the pass catchers? Despite enthusiasm surrounding the offense in general, the beneficiaries of a supposed top 12 QB are not reaping rewards as it pertains to ADP. This is a gross mistake on the part of preseason drafters. To see this, it is helpful to refer to a chart of WR production in a Kingsbury offense:
|
|
WR1 Market Share |
WR2 Market Share |
WR3 Market Share |
WR4 Market Share |
||||||
|
Yardage |
TD |
Yardage |
TD |
Yardage |
TD |
Yardage |
TD |
|||
|
2011 |
OC |
UH |
28% |
37% |
20% |
22% |
15% |
9% |
5% |
4% |
|
2012 |
OC |
TAMU |
27% |
18% |
22% |
29% |
12% |
25% |
8% |
4% |
|
2013 |
HC |
TTU |
26% |
20% |
19% |
23% |
16% |
20% |
12% |
17% |
|
2014 |
HC |
TTU |
22% |
18% |
19% |
25% |
14% |
18% |
8% |
5% |
|
2015 |
HC |
TTU |
25% |
26% |
13% |
10% |
12% |
8% |
11% |
21% |
|
2016 |
HC |
TTU |
21% |
28% |
16% |
15% |
12% |
17% |
12% |
17% |
|
2017 |
HC |
TTU |
33% |
29% |
19% |
20% |
13% |
17% |
11% |
14% |
|
2018 |
HC |
TTU |
33% |
32% |
19% |
14% |
16% |
25% |
7% |
7% |
|
Averages |
27% |
26% |
18% |
20% |
14% |
17% |
9% |
11% |
||
Concentrated Production
It is evident after a cursory glance that in the Kingsbury offense, a clear WR1 is favored. Over the last 3 years in the NFL, the average market share for a team’s top pass catcher is roughly 25% compared to a 27% share on average in the Kingsbury offense. Despite the narrative that Kingsbury rolls out 4-wide sets and spreads the ball around, it appears that a feature WR is a staple. Given that a Kingsbury offense is very fertile soil, 27% of this passing game is very interesting for whoever emerges as the WR1. Even the second option in this offense likely will reward drafters with a nice return on investment. The question remains as to who will fill these various roles in Arizona.
The Not So Usual Suspects
The Cardinals return 2 notable pass catchers from last season in legend Larry Fitzgerald and 2018 2nd round pick Christian Kirk. Presumably in preparation to overhaul the offense, they drafted three more WRs in 2019: Andy Isabella in the 2nd, Hakeem Butler in the 4th and KeeSean Johnson in the 6th round. It is understandable that the mystery surrounding how these receivers will be deployed has kept their ADP from rising.
However, in chaos there lies opportunity. Below are potential outcomes from the WR 1 and 2 position in the 2019 Arizona offense under Kingsbury (pass yards taken from part 1):
|
|
Pass yards |
Pass TD |
Rec yards |
Rec TD |
FF points STD |
FF WR finish based on 2018 data |
|
|
WR1 |
High |
4800 |
38 |
1296 |
10 |
189.6 |
WR9 |
|
Medium |
4500 |
32 |
1215 |
8 |
169.5 |
WR11 |
|
|
Low |
4200 |
28 |
1134 |
7 |
155.4 |
WR16 |
|
|
WR2 |
High |
4800 |
38 |
864 |
8 |
134.4 |
WR23 |
|
Medium |
4500 |
32 |
810 |
6 |
117 |
WR28 |
|
|
Low |
4200 |
28 |
756 |
5 |
105.6 |
WR37 |
|
The WR1 in this offense is almost guaranteed to be a weekly WR2 on a fantasy team. Despite this potential, there is not an Arizona pass catcher being drafted inside the top 24 WR based on ADP. The market is the most bullish on Christian Kirk at and ADP of WR32, with Fitz at WR38 and afterthought rookies Isabella (WR59) and Butler (WR77) rounding out the group. Of course, it is difficult to project who will emerge as Murray’s top recipient and this author does not claim to know the future. But given potential finish and the current cost, why not take a bunch of them? Once the low WR1 tier has been selected there isn’t much that separates weekly streamers from locked in assets. Stack cheap options from this high volume group and wait to see what transpires.
Captain Kirk
If pressed for an answer, Christian Kirk has the best chance of making the leap to fantasy stud in 2019. He has 4.47 speed, an elite breakout age of 18.8 years, and solid college dominator rating in the 73rd percentile. An athletic comp is Stefon Diggs and he was one of the few bright spots on a disaster of a Cardinals offense in 2018. Kirk in particular seems to have many arrows pointing up, but at cost there isn’t a good reason not to invest heavily into this offense. Fitzgerald continues to produce and should still see heavy usage, while Isabella was hand-picked by Kingsbury as a versatile weapon. Butler was a pre-draft darling for many in the fantasy community and even KeeSean Johnson has an intriguing prospect profile although his 6th round draft capital should temper expectations.
Conclusion
At cost, throwing multiple darts at WRs in the Arizona offense is a no-brainer, with Christian Kirk in the pole position to be a league winner.
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