Christian Kirk might be Stephon Diggs in a suped-up offense and finding other WR values in the desert

Much noise has been made in fantasy circles about the Arizona Cardinals and the potential for a new-look, explosive offense in 2019. Some of the reasons to be excited for what Kliff Kingsbury will bring to the NFL were discussed in part 1 . Despite a lackluster 2018, David Johnson has seen his ADP remain at RB5/6 and Kyler Murray is being taken as a low end QB1 in the 8th round of redraft. A rookie QB has not been drafted that high since Robert Griffin III in 2011. But what about the pass catchers? Despite enthusiasm surrounding the offense in general, the beneficiaries of a supposed top 12 QB are not reaping rewards as it pertains to ADP. This is a gross mistake on the part of preseason drafters. To see this, it is helpful to refer to a chart of WR production in a Kingsbury offense:

 

 

 

 

 

 

WR1 Market Share

WR2 Market Share

WR3 Market Share

WR4 Market Share

Yardage

TD

Yardage

TD

Yardage

TD

Yardage

TD

2011

OC

UH

28%

37%

20%

22%

15%

9%

5%

4%

2012

OC

TAMU

27%

18%

22%

29%

12%

25%

8%

4%

2013

HC

TTU

26%

20%

19%

23%

16%

20%

12%

17%

2014

HC

TTU

22%

18%

19%

25%

14%

18%

8%

5%

2015

HC

TTU

25%

26%

13%

10%

12%

8%

11%

21%

2016

HC

TTU

21%

28%

16%

15%

12%

17%

12%

17%

2017

HC

TTU

33%

29%

19%

20%

13%

17%

11%

14%

2018

HC

TTU

33%

32%

19%

14%

16%

25%

7%

7%

Averages

27%

26%

18%

20%

14%

17%

9%

11%

Concentrated Production

It is evident after a cursory glance that in the Kingsbury offense, a clear WR1 is favored. Over the last 3 years in the NFL, the average market share for a team’s top pass catcher is roughly 25% compared to a 27% share on average in the Kingsbury offense. Despite the narrative that Kingsbury rolls out 4-wide sets and spreads the ball around, it appears that a feature WR is a staple. Given that a Kingsbury offense is very fertile soil, 27% of this passing game is very interesting for whoever emerges as the WR1. Even the second option in this offense likely will reward drafters with a nice return on investment. The question remains as to who will fill these various roles in Arizona.

The Not So Usual Suspects

The Cardinals return 2 notable pass catchers from last season in legend Larry Fitzgerald and 2018 2nd round pick Christian Kirk. Presumably in preparation to overhaul the offense, they drafted three more WRs in 2019: Andy Isabella in the 2nd, Hakeem Butler in the 4th and KeeSean Johnson in the 6th round. It is understandable that the mystery surrounding how these receivers will be deployed has kept their ADP from rising.

However, in chaos there lies opportunity. Below are potential outcomes from the WR 1 and 2 position in the 2019 Arizona offense under Kingsbury (pass yards taken from part 1):

 

Pass yards

Pass TD

Rec yards

Rec TD

FF points STD

FF WR finish based on 2018 data

WR1

High

4800

38

1296

10

189.6

WR9

Medium

4500

32

1215

8

169.5

WR11

Low

4200

28

1134

7

155.4

WR16

WR2

High

4800

38

864

8

134.4

WR23

Medium

4500

32

810

6

117

WR28

Low

4200

28

756

5

105.6

WR37

 

The WR1 in this offense is almost guaranteed to be a weekly WR2 on a fantasy team. Despite this potential, there is not an Arizona pass catcher being drafted inside the top 24 WR based on ADP. The market is the most bullish on Christian Kirk at and ADP of WR32, with Fitz at WR38 and afterthought rookies Isabella (WR59) and Butler (WR77) rounding out the group. Of course, it is difficult to project who will emerge as Murray’s top recipient and this author does not claim to know the future. But given potential finish and the current cost, why not take a bunch of them? Once the low WR1 tier has been selected there isn’t much that separates weekly streamers from locked in assets. Stack cheap options from this high volume group and wait to see what transpires.

Captain Kirk

If pressed for an answer, Christian Kirk has the best chance of making the leap to fantasy stud in 2019. He has 4.47 speed, an elite breakout age of 18.8 years, and solid college dominator rating in the 73rd percentile. An athletic comp is Stefon Diggs and he was one of the few bright spots on a disaster of a Cardinals offense in 2018. Kirk in particular seems to have many arrows pointing up, but at cost there isn’t a good reason not to invest heavily into this offense. Fitzgerald continues to produce and should still see heavy usage, while Isabella was hand-picked by Kingsbury as a versatile weapon. Butler was a pre-draft darling for many in the fantasy community and even KeeSean Johnson has an intriguing prospect profile although his 6th round draft capital should temper expectations.

Conclusion

At cost, throwing multiple darts at WRs in the Arizona offense is a no-brainer, with Christian Kirk in the pole position to be a league winner.

 

Follow me @whataBOOF

  1. Lockwood says:
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    WhatAFART talks a lot about throwing darts even though Kyler won’t be. There will be a lot of Larry in the slot because Kyler will be getting murdered by larger, faster defenses than he saw in the pitiful Big 12ish. David Johnson will be the highest receiver on the team, followed by Larry, followed by Kirk tearing an ACL. This is all assuming Kyler makes it back from his first two concussions. Coach Bro will then be throwing darts…at a map…to determine his next high school coaching position.

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      You make really good points, Lockwood. Thanks!

  2. Commish says:
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    Commish again-

    Once again, the author’s esteemed commissioner from the LOG, here to lay down some wisdom. After perusing through the second article by Boof’s Meds it appears clear to me why these articles were written in the first place. Boof owns Christian Kirk in our (keeper) league. This is purely out of self-promotion. He cant’ wait to brag to everyone that he has a super cheap keeper and it was a super smart move to “draft” him last season in our auction.

    In conclusion, I’ll break down Boof’s conclusion: “At cost, throwing multiple darts at WRs in the Arizona offense is a no-brainer, with Christian Kirk in the pole position to be a league winner.” I’d rather throw “multiple darts” at a dartboard while sipping on your Carlo Rossi and eating non-Stay Puft marshallows (See part 1 of Boof’s article in the comment section) than touch any of the WRs that you previously mentioned. “No brainer”- the act of not having a brain. EX: I was reading Boof’s article when I realized he was kind of a no brainer, and then I stopped reading. “League winner”- never been used to describe the author…in 7 years…never been used….

    #Commish

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      This is my year

      • Mista Baloon says:
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        The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

        May the force be with you WAB, and may the Commish’s post be hung on your wall as motivation, then framed and mailed to this would-be sage.

        Get em,

  3. The Freak says:
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    Reading this reminds me of the 5 minutes I wasted watching Speed 2: Cruise Control

  4. The Real Freak says:
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    Real Freak here-

    BOOF,
    You have a gift, sir! Ton of insight and knowledge to offer readers. I’m no prophet, but I see your career skyrocketing. I may try and trade for Kyler Murray. I think you are on to something. Even better than RG3 in his debut. Please keep these articles coming!

    Don’t worry about the other members trashing your reputation. Over half of them need Penuma, especially Duke’s Johnson.

  5. FarmandRules says:
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    Razzballs WAB is my new favorite columnist.

    If not for quality of content, at least for the quality of schlackings on the comments board. This is indeed a worthy read during my sacred throne time.

    If WAB proves to be correct, he may indeed find himself to be the fortune-teller of the ages, and lock in his value among with his fantastical crystal-ball – a true fortune teller and king-maker.

    Of course, there is the obvious issue that buying stock, and filling a roster with a potentially TERRIBLE offense could render ones 2019 fantasy season doomed for Suck Bowl Championships ONLY, but… nothing ventured nothing gained!

    Curious to see if the BOOF stomachs his own meds and goes all in on KK. Time will tell!!!

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