Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will feature elite pass volume and highlight QB rushing ability. Even if it fails, Kyler Murray is still going to score a lot of fantasy points. Don’t worry that he’s a rookie and buy at his current ADP.

Close your eyes. Erase everything you know about the Arizona Cardinals from 2018. Stare into the void. Now, open your mind to new possibilities that may challenge your grasp on reality. There is a lot of chatter on the internet about the 2019 Cardinals offense and people seem to be generally optimistic. Much has been made about the bold move to hire Kliff Kingsbury, who essentially failed at the collegiate level, to his first NFL gig. To be clear, he failed at winning enough games, which is generally frowned upon. However, he certainly did not fail to create drool-inducing offenses.

Known Production

Kingsbury has run an offense either as an offensive coordinator (OC) or head coach (HC) since 2011, so there is plenty of data to work with. Below is a table displaying the passing production of his offenses:

  Games Pass attempts Attempts/ game Pass yards Yards/ attempt Pass TD
2011 UH OC 14 682 49 6301 9.2 54
2012 TAMU OC 13 492 38 4114 8.4 28
2013 TTU HC 13 714 55 5107 7.2 35
2014 TTU HC 12 559 47 4213 7.5 40
2015 TTU HC 13 620 48 5046 8.1 39
2016 TTU HC 12 653 54 5556 8.5 47
2017 TTU HC 13 541 42 4338 8.0 35
2018 TTU HC 12 535 45 4231 7.9 28
Averages 13 600 47 4863 8.1 38

That is a lot of offense! An average Kingsbury offense would have 2018 NFL rankings as follows: 7th in pass attempts, 4th in pass yards, tied for 6th in yards/attempt (Y/A) and 3rd in pass TD… in 13 games! Those numbers extrapolated to a 16 game NFL season would come to an astronomical 752 attempts for 6091 yards and 57 TDs. Of course, this offense is moving from the Big12 to the NFC West so it shouldn’t be assumed that it will directly carry over. No one has ever attempted 752 passes in a season, although Matt Stafford came close with 727 in 2012. Tempering projections down to a mere 600 attempts (37/game) seems prudent for this exercise.

Consider now Chip Kelly’s jump from the Pac12 to the NFC East in 2013: Kelly’s offense averaged about 8 Y/A at Oregon in 2011 and 2012 then in 2013 the Eagles’ offense had a Y/A of 8.7. Now, by all means sound the small sample size alert, but this shows it is possible for a creative college offense to find success in the NFL.

What To Expect

Kyler Murray can be reasonably projected to heave approximately 600 balls into the air in 2019. This is significant, and more will be said on the topic later but it is also notable that Kingsbury has let his quarterback run if said quarterback has shown this ability. In 2012 Johnny Manziel ran 201 times for 1410 yards and 21 TDs. In Patrick Mahomes’ 2 years as a starter for Kingsbury, he ran a total of 262 times for 741 yards and 22 scores. Kyler Murray can run, as evidenced by his 140 rushes for 1001 yards and 12 scores in 2018 as well as a recent clip where he appears to sprint to a draw with fellow rookie and 4.3 speedster Andy Isabella. Putting it all together, Murray has a very acceptable range of outcomes as a quarterback in a Kingsbury offense:

  Pass attempts Pass yards Yards/ attempt Pass TD Int Rush att Rush yards Standard points Hypothetical final rank
High 600 4800 8.0 38 18 100 540 362 QB2
Medium 600 4500 7.5 32 18 100 540 326 QB5
Low 600 4200 7.0 28 18 100 540 298 QB10

There are some assumptions made for Murray’s projections:

1) Pass attempts should remain stable regardless of outcome because that it how the offense is designed.

2) Y/A is the important variable and the “high” end is exact Kingsbury production from CFB data while the “low” is a 15% drop off from collegiate Y/A.

3) Pass TD are adjusted as well, albeit somewhat subjectively in this case.

4) The interception total was chosen based off historical rookie QB performances. Since 2008 the average first round rookie QB has thrown 18.8 INT for every 600 attempts. Narrowing the pool to the 11 QBs drafted in the top 10 who threw over 400 times in their rookie year, the number drops to 18.2 INT/600 att.

5) Rush attempts and yards were chosen based on typical seasons from NFL “rushing” QBs Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton who have regularly carried over 100 times a season with an average of 5.4 yards per carry (YPC). It should be concerning for NFL defenses that Murray averaged more YPC than Wilson, Watson, and Newton did in college.

6) Rush TDs were not accounted for because that is very difficult to project, but by not including rushing TDs the total points projections gain more stability assuming he does score on the ground a few times.

Conclusion

Unless something goes horribly and unreasonably wrong it appears that Kyler Murray will at worst be a weekly option in single QB leagues, with as much upside as any QB drafted in fantasy football. With an ADP of QB10-12 this offseason, he offers value being drafted at his probable floor.

Follow me @whataBOOF

  1. Honchooooo says:
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    If I was Kyler, I would be most worried about an O-line that allowed 52 sacks and 109 QB hits after leaving a team that allowed 19. It may take a bit for the Air Raid to build the O-line they need.

    I’m also wondering if the author knows what few limited and undesirable uses there are for “boof”…

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      Honch! Good to hear from ya! You bring up an excellent point. In the interest of brevity I did not address the OL issue in the article but rest assured it was considered! You are right the Cards OL is baaaaaaaAaaaaAAAAAAAd. Ranked 32/32 by PFF (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-by-pass-blocking-efficiency).

      Now, they did bring in some reinforcements including Marcus Gilbert who is a good player when healthy, and should have all starters back healthy to start the season. Even so, they’re still going to be bad.

      So, let me point you to the Houston Texans who also have a terrible OL and allowed a league high 253 pressures in 2018. This did not stop Watson from finishing as QB4 on the season, partly because when the pocket breaks down he can extend/make plays with his legs (sounds like Murray).

      While the OL is a concern in real life and the running game,I don’t think it will matter substantially for Murray and his potential fantasy production. Of course with the caveat that injury will ruin everything. But I don’t like to try and project injury.

  2. Commish says:
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    I’ve been in a fantasy league with the author of this article for 7 years now. He’s marginal at best and has yet to win our league. Listen to his advice though.

    Fondly, Commish.

    PS Love you Fred

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      Thanks for your engagement Commish!

      Has it really been 7 years? Time flies… Im still trusting the #process I guess

  3. Professor says:
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    A few obvious things for the readers of this post:

    1) The writer of this article is not qualified to give fantasy advice, his last 3 years rankings in a 14 team league are 9th, 11th, and 7th…
    2) This publication is obviously bush-league, they didn’t even check for reference from your prior years of sucking in the LOG…
    3) Reading this article is like watching a video teaching me how to read, by someone who can’t read.

    The writer made a critical mistake of sharing this with his fantasy football “friends” – we jointly apologize for this rubbish, and have issues said “WhatADoof” a formal reprimand. His writing is only slightly worse than his fantasy play – he is neither an accurate or endorsed representation of our beloved league.

    Best,

    • MB

      MB says:
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      This is fantastic. I’ve never seen a writer get dragged so hard by his friends

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      Thank you for your continued support

      • What a BOOF

        What a BOOF says:
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        also @Professor watch out for fake news, I think you have my finishes wrong

  4. The Freak says:
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    This is a great article….for me to poop on

  5. As a fellow doctor and scientist, I think this is a fine contribution to the upcoming year, with strategy that will help teams at least earn a ‘participation trophy’ in fantasy football in 2019.

    I don’t think I care enough to do research like this — where I learn players names, OL weights, etc — as I focus my research more on how to optimize my team for the playoff season using cold, hard science. Science, mind you, is the only thing we know that leads to repeatable championships.

    Boof, you are no Patriot, but you are surely no Provolone either. I do think Boofs Meds will make a solid showing this year with this kind of output. I am going to start following you here on razzball and through your myspace.com page (https://myspace.com/boofband/music/songs) for more posts.

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      Agree, science is the future

  6. The Freak says:
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    In all seriousness this author knows what he’s talking about…said no one ever

    We used to be allies, until I met him in person and realized he was Big Bird from Sesame Street. I’m literally going to print out this article, crumble it into pieces and use it as toilet paper
    #formetopoopon

  7. Dr. Steve Brule says:
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    What a Boof is spot on. Finding out a particular member of our league authored this post is like finding out your girlfriend’s Pomeranian authored an advice column on a bear hunting blog. Reading this was cute and also sad. The guy doesn’t even participate in the group chat, much less impress anyone on the field of play. This site should vet its writers a bit harder….hold on, my Yorkshire Terrier is trying to post an article on the site convincing readers to draft Andy Dalton in 1st round

  8. Hornball says:
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    Great article, do you think the cardinals will take a step forward in 2020 with the offense.

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      I am not Nostradamus. Lets see if I’m even right on 2019

  9. Duke’s Johnson aka boof’s nightmare says:
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    As the fantasy league rival and dominator of #whataboof I feel I should speak into this….everything #whataboof has ever said, done, breathed, or written is a lie. However, I do think kyler will be top notch at the next level so I find myself stuck between my dismay for #whataboof and my admiration for kyler. Sorry kyler….my hatred for #whataboof is stronger!

  10. Kip’s Dong says:
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    This article is Dzzz

  11. Scott Hoffman says:
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    The comments section so far is such a display of bullying and bro culture mean spiritedness. This guy writes a well meaning piece backed with TONS of data and makes his position pretty clear and then ARE YOU KIDDING ME? KLIF KINGSBURY? COME ON. League member who shall remain nameless this is pure clown journalism.

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      I feel attacked

  12. Joseph Randle says:
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    I made $60 an hour surfing the web

  13. Lynn says:
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    This guy must have one incredible league…

    Obviously, Cliff Kingsbury is probably NOT going to become an NFL coaching legend, but he will be a massive flash in the fantasy pan(ts…your welcome). Even if their OL is garbage, they’ll be playing from behind (wink) and possible fantasy gold.

    I’m moving Kyler up in my draft order – maybe not
    Full adp, but perhaps Part 2 can convince me….

    Curious, any sleeper AZ WRs you’d be willing to take a chance on???

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      I think you’re gonna LOVE part 2… stay tuned for next week!

  14. JuulThirty says:
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    The first clear mistake Kingsbury made was not picking up the Boat in free agency. Bortles is a gun slinging, cig ripping, future hall of famer. He just needed to get out from under Jagwads

    That Kyler Murray midget will lead the NFL in interceptions. Mark my words!

  15. Reefer Chiefer AKA Juul Cherry says:
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    So are you saying any QB in that system would flourish in Fantasy? My bro The Boat would roll Kyler Murray up and smoke him like a blunt. I think Kingsbury made a mistake not bringing him in as competition. He may not be as pure a passer as Murray but he has the NFL size and he has some wheels!

  16. Sonic & Kliff says:
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    Another LOG member here (same league as the author)

    Here’s a few more gems…

    In 2007, he drafted Thurman Thomas in the first round, failing to realize that he had been retired for 9 years.

    In 2012, he decided he would let his girlfriend draft for him because “he had to go pick up his Hawaiian pizza from Dominos” after his “order got messed up”. He finished 4th that season…still his highest finish to date.

    In 2015, he drafted Tim Tebow in the 3rd round, and tried to sway another league member to trade Le’Veon Bell for him, stating “Tebow’s throwing motion has been perfected by his pre-season stint with the Patriots”. He followed this statement up with “trust me” in all caps. The league member wasn’t swayed. Needless to say, this wasn’t a good season for Boof’s Meds

    Last season, he attended our draft weekend and brought marshmallows and Carlo Rossi. Everyone was instructed to bring their favorite cigar and bourbon to share. He didn’t even bring Stay Puft brand marshmallows…

    But, yeah, totally trust his opinion. Totally.

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      You know I can take a lot of razzing but you’ve gone TOO FAR suggesting I’d eat a Hawaiian pizza. You monster.

      • Honchooooo says:
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        Coach Bro eats a Papa Johns Hawaiian pizza the night before every game. How else do you think he maintains his girlish figure?? Kyler is about to adopt the Coach Bro pregame diet.

        I mean, college football failure has always lead to NFL coaching success, right?

        • Captain D says:
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          WAB is not here making a defense of Coach K, he merely seems to be stating that his philosophy and offensive strategy is likely to yield much fantasy fruit, and Kyler is well suited for this style of play.

          Please correct if needed WAB.

          Also, as you seem to me amidst some don’t of initiation ritual as a new writer on this forum – might you enlighten us on your chosen pseudonym?? Literalists amongst your readers beg for an explanation.

          Thank you,

          • What a BOOF

            What a BOOF says:
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            Right on Capt’n

            As for the moniker, BOOF has been used in my circle of friends to mean basically any kind of blunder. A person can be a BOOF. An action can be a BOOF. BOOF can be a verb eg. “Man, I BOOFd that”

            Because most of this fantasy game is making mistake and learning from them… I call myself WAB to personify the futility of all the researcher put into the game. At the same time I can’t stop won’t stop playing

            Thanks for your engagement!

  17. Dr. Op Mike Rapone says:
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    A. Boof in normal type I can understand. BOOF in all caps begs for an acronym. Readers, any ideas? Keep in mind #WAB is a sensitive type, so be ginger and delicate with him/her.
    B. @#WAB, thanks for letting us know you plan to draft Kliff Dingleberry at his fantasy floor… Good luck with that, mate.
    C. Couldn’t agree more with the esteemed Dr. Crème Brulée about low participation in the fantasy WhatsApp chat(ter). As a busy social worker, just like your better half, I still make time to check in once a month whether or not the league needs emotional support. Are you really saying your job, family, and five other leagues are more important than our league? Readers, again, please join in on this point.

  18. REID says:
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    ALEXA. WHAT IS RAZZBALL DOT COM?

    • Alexa says:
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      playing old town road by lil nas x featuring billy ray cyrus

  19. Love seein the guys havin fun. Haha. I’m also in an actually serious league with this author. Haha. We would carpool to and from draft weekend together. We’ve spent many long nights together in cars. Haha.

    I agree with this analysis. O-Line? More like NO Line. Haha. Anyways it will be fun to see who wins this season. Play ball!

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