It’s always a good idea to draft for value in fantasy drafts.  Seems obvious, right?  Yeah, it is.  I like being obvious sometimes, obviously.  This here is a list of a few players that have some nice fantasy value this year based on their Average Draft Position (ADP).  It would be a wise move on your part to target these fellows in your fantasy drafts.  Obviously!

ADP statistics are taken from the fine folks at Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC) and Pro Football Focus (PFF).  All ADP statistics are accurate as of the day this was written, which was the 4th of July.  I’m patriotic like that.

Matthew Stafford (FFC: 106th overall – QB15; PFF: 92nd overall – QB13):  In the two full games Stafford played in last year, he had 24 fantasy points in both of them.  The sample size is too small to make a fair assessment, but if Stafford stays healthy all year, nobody should be surprised to see a 4,000 yard, 26-28 TD type season from him.  He has that kind of potential in this offense.  The only teams to throw more than the Lions in 2010 were the Colts and the Saints.  The sky is the limit if he can just say on the field and his upside is well worth your 8th or 9th round pick.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FFC: 156th overall -QB24; PFF: 128th overall – QB19):  In 13 games, Fitzpatrick finished 2010 as the 19th best fantasy QB in standard leagues.  The Buffalo offense isn’t going to change much.  A full 16 games from Fitzpatrick could have him easily cracking the top 15 fantasy QBs in 2011.  He has nice value as a back up QB and you can get him really late in drafts.

Marshawn Lynch (FFC: 70th overall – RB29; PFF: 66th overall – RB26):  A starting RB is a starting RB.  Lynch is one of those, which translates to fantasy numbers even if those numbers aren’t stellar.  He plays in a bad division and should see well over 250 touches this year.  Justin Forsett doesn’t pose much of a threat for significant carries.  Lynch is an ideal RB3/flex option that can be had for cheap.

LaDanian Tomlinson (FFC: 88th overall – RB35; PFF: 126 overall – RB45):  LT is being drafted like a piece of chopped liver.  I think he’s still a nice slice of in-tact liver that still has something to offer fantasy owners.  Yes, he’s 32 years old and Shonn Greene is expected to take over lead back duties, but LT should still see 180-200 total touches and contribute enough to outproduce his draft position.

Rashad Jennings (FFC: 151st overall – RB58; PFF: 150th overall – RB52):  Maurice Jones-Drew has admitted recently that his knee isn’t 100%.  This raises serious questions about his durability.  Considering those knee issues and the fact he missed time last season, Jennings may get plenty of opportunities in 2011 to contribute solid numbers.  The Jags would be wise to lighten MJD’s workload.  Jennings is being drafted as chump change and he ain’t no chump!

Stevie Johnson (FFC: 52nd overall – WR20; PFF: 49th overall – WR20):  Stevie J. finished 2010 as the 10th best WR in standard scoring leagues.  He slowed down towards the end of the year and his production likely won’t match his 2010 totals, but I expect them to be close.  He and Fitzpatrick will continue to be the engine that makes the Buffalo offense go and he’s a nice WR2 to target in the 4th or 5th round of your fantasy draft.

Kenny Britt (FFC: 65th overall – WR25; PFF: 67th overall – WR26):  Britt’s legal woes are well documented.  Over documented, in fact.  This over-documentation has caused Britt’s ADP to drop in drafts recently.  Britt can be drafted as a WR3 and will produce as a WR2.  His suspension won’t be a long one, if he gets one at all.  Even if the Tennessee QB’s only throw 18 TDs all season long, Britt is a good bet to get half of those.  He’s the only legit threat in the Titans passing game.

Mike Thomas (FFC: 119th overall – WR47; PFF: 87th overall – WR32):  There’s no way Thomas should be the 47th WR taken in drafts.  Mike Sims-Walker is out of Jacksonville, leaving behind 79 targets and 7 TDs to replace.  Thomas will account for some of that lost production, and his ability to contribute in the running game (12 carries, 114 rushing yards) make him a tremendous WR3.  A 1,100 yard, 7-8 TD season isn’t unreasonable to expect from Thomas.

Dustin Keller (FFC: 159th overall – TE18; PFF: 138th overall – TE16):  Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Brad Smith are three Jets wide receivers who become free agents whenever free agents become freed.  Holmes is expected back, but the other two may not be.  If Edwards and Smith move on, Keller would be the #2 in the Jets passing game.  His numbers won’t be outstanding, but they’ll be better than that of a 16th-18th drafted tight end.

For more value based on ADP, check out my first ADP post by clicking here.

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  1. Oilcan Giuseppe says:

    Doc….please help.I need to pick my QB for a 10 team h2h keeper league.The potential of Stafford is so tempting,but Josh Freeman seems like the safer pick.I feel like what I decide w/ Stafford will make or break my season.So….

  2. Doc

    Doc says:

    @Oilcan Giuseppe: Stafford has a lot more upside, but is riskier. A love Freeman, but I really don’t see him taking that big step this season that we need him to in fantasy. It’s really a choice of safety over ceiling. I’m more apt to go risky with Stafford.

  3. Sos says:

    I’m taking over a horrid team in a. 14 team league. We must keep one. The league plays one qb and then has an offensive player flex that includes qb. My only two options in my mind would be Flacco or Daily Show Jon Stewart? Leaning towards Stewart. Thoughts? (Punt is not an option!)

  4. Doc

    Doc says:

    QB does have a lot of value in that league, but I would probably lean Stewart. You’ll be behind on QBs so you’ll have to reach a little on them in the draft.

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