It was a tough night for Bills fans on Thursday as hopes for a AFC East title and first round bye were likely dashed in Houston. On the other hand, James Cook fantasy owners woke up pretty happy with his performance, including 116 yards on the ground and a score. He also added a few fantasy points in the passing game. In PPR, that adds up to almost 22 points. Not bad.
Let’s do a quick review of his Zone vs. Gap results to see how our tool performed (I’m looking at this in real time, so you know I’m not stacking the deck). We’ll start at the pre-game information.
Here’s a quick peak behind the curtain. For my analysis, I look at both team’s offensive and defensive average yards per game for Zone and Gap rushing, as well as the number of attempts for each, then use a proprietary calculation to rank all the matchups. As a team, Buffalo had a mid-rank Zone matchup (16th overall) but the 2nd best Gap matchup. That suggests Buffalo success rushing primarily behind Gap blocking since the Texans have been limiting Zone rushers to just over 22 yards per game. Referencing our RB Zone vs Gap Rushing Tool, Cook’s season-long rushing breakdown is essentially 50:50 between Zone and Gap.
For the game, Cook had 17 designed rushes, but the breakdown is not the 50:50 or even tilted toward the Gap advantage, as we would have hoped. In fact, he only rushed behind Gap blocking 35% of the time. Take away his one 45-yard rush (for a TD), his numbers become somewhat disappointing at just 71 yards total over 16 rushing attempts, especially as most of them were against the 5th ranked Zone defense in the league.
I know what you’re thinking, what blocking scheme was used for the 45-yard rushing TD. Well, I went to the video and sure enough, he cut back through the A-Gap, practically untouched for the score. I’d say the Bills coaching staff missed an opportunity here.
So, let’s put that game behind us for now. Before we move to the rest of the slate, know you can do this analysis on your own as well. We give you all the tools – FOR FREE. You can view the Defensive Zone vs. Gap splits HERE and the RB Zone vs. Gap splits HERE. I’ll add the former table to the bottom of this article. For RB-specific numbers, go to the tool. Remember, it’s FREE!
Also, if you want a short refresher (or tutorial, if you’re new to this tool) on the table, simply go back to my previous article HERE.
Don’t just stop at RBs! We have a whole suite of FREE tools as well as Rudy’s premium tools to provide everything you need, no matter your fantasy taste. Here are links to both:
Be sure to check out Razzball Football’s updated rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!
Week 12 Matchups
Zone Matchups
- The top Zone matchup belongs to the Bears. The Bears RBs rush behind Zone blocking over 56% of the time with an average of almost 80 yards per game. The Steelers DEF is giving up an average of almost 50 yards per game and those teams are rushing behind Zone clocking schemes a majority of the time as well, placing the defense in the bottom third of the league with that stat. That bodes well for both D’Andre Swift (65% Zone) and Kyle Monangai (66% Zone).
- The next best Zone matchup belongs to the Jets. Yes, the Jets are still a dumpster fire (sorry Jets fans) but they are averaging over 60 yards per game with that scheme. The matchup against the improving Baltimore defense ranks 5th best for the week in that category. NOTE: remember, we average over the last 6 weeks of games so some of those atrocious Ravens results early in the season are not contributing anymore. That said, I’m still a little cautious with relying too heavily on Breece Hall (74% Zone) for my fantasy or DFS success.
- There are some other nice matchups to consider (Steelers RBs vs Bears, Falcons RBs vs Saints and Seahawks RBs vs Titans) but I’ll focus my last recommendation on Emanuel Wilson and the Packers. As of this writing, Josh Jacobs is still “Q” but I expect he’ll sit to be prepared for the annual Thanksgiving Day game. That means Wilson should be the primary beneficiary against a Vikings DEF giving up almost 60 yards per game to Zone rushing. In his limited work so far, Wilson is rushing behind Zone blocking 62% of the time. Fire him up, I am!
- I’m a little worried about the recent rushing resurgence with Chase Brown and the Bengals. Cincy RBs are having success on the ground of late and the matchup against the Patriots for Zone rushing is pretty good. The caution I see here is that the Bengals don’t commit one way or the other. Brown’s rushing numbers are 46% Zone and 47% Gap and the Patriots have one of the best Gap rushing defenses in the league, limiting RBs to only 16 yards per game there. So, if the Bengals don’t commit to Zone rushing, Brown’s streak of 3 games > 18.5 fantasy points may be in jeopardy.
- Other Zone matchups that don’t look great:
- Jaguars RBs vs Cardinals
- Bucs RBs vs Rams
- Titans RBs vs Seahawks
- Browns RBs vs Raiders
- Cardinals RBs vs Jaguars
Gap Matchups
- Many times, I see a poor Zone matchups turn into good Gap matchups. That’s the case with the first one: Cardinals vs Jaguars. Arizona is primarily a Gap rushing team whose RBs average 60+ yards per game behind Gap blocking. That combination makes them #1 in the league there. Jacksonville DEF? Well, not so much. The combination of yards per game and Gap attempts vs their DEF places them in the bottom third in the league. I’d be yelling from the rooftop if Trey Benson was back in the fold, but he’s not. So, you’ll have to roll with Bam Knight (76% Gap) and Michael Carter (70% Gap).
- Next up is Carolina vs San Francisco. Rico Dowdle (52% Gap) is the play here. The Panthers rank #9 in Gap offense while the 49ers rank 31st in Gap defense. ‘Nuff said!
- You don’t need me to tell you to start Jonathan Taylor but on paper the matchup vs the Chiefs may give you pause. The Chiefs Gap defense is allowing only 26 yards per game but the Colts Gap offense is averaging over 68 yards per game. Something must give. I lean towards Taylor (58% Gap) carrying the Colts on his back.
- You may have thought I was losing my mind when I said above that a RB matchup vs the Raiders is not good. The Zone matchup may not look good, but the Gap matchup does. Quinshon Judkins (59% Gap) has cooled considerably but this looks a lot like a “get right” game. The Raiders are giving up over 40 yards per game and just like the Jaguars above, ranks in the bottom third in the league.
- On the flip side of that game, I’m concerned about Ashton Jeanty. Over the past four games, Jeanty (61% Gap) is averaging a miniscule 32 yards per game. The Browns DEF ranks #4 in Gap rushing defense. It’s hard for me to think Jeanty is going to blow up Sunday. You’ve been warned.
That’s All Folks
Do you take advantage of all our free tools? If you don’t, why not? All of the RazzballNFL staff is here to help so get on the ball. Be sure to read our daily articles and especially join us on gameday morning for the Razzball Sunday Start/Sit show. We had another great turnout last Sunday with excellent (i.e., tough) lineup questions to talk through. Keep bringing it!
As always, the show airs LIVE on the Razzball YouTube channel this Sunday from 11:00 am EDT (8:00 PDT) right up right up to gametime. Sky – @SkyGuasco, Matt – @Stiles08, Dave – @Crewser128, Jeff – @Jefferson__21 and I will be there to answer all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
As always, look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m also on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Team | Def_Designed Rush Yds/Gm | Def Zone Yds/Gm | Def Gap Yds/Gm | Def Zone% | Def Gap% | Def Undesigned Scr Yds/Gm | Next Opponent | Off Rush Yds/Gm | Off Zone% | Off Gap% | Off Scr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 137 | 81.1 | 46.9 | 59% | 34% | 0 | CIN | 97 | 44% | 50% | 2% | |
| ATL | 82 | 33.7 | 46.0 | 46% | 52% | 0 | LA | 142 | 47% | 50% | 1% | |
| BLT | 74 | 30.3 | 37.0 | 47% | 44% | 0 | GB | 106 | 52% | 39% | 4% | |
| BUF | 110 | 43.6 | 48.8 | 42% | 46% | 0 | PHI | 110 | 57% | 33% | 3% | |
| CAR | 114 | 68.1 | 38.2 | 60% | 32% | 0 | SEA | 103 | 52% | 38% | 3% | |
| CHI | 99 | 53.0 | 35.5 | 60% | 30% | 0 | SF | 103 | 64% | 27% | 3% | |
| CIN | 109 | 53.2 | 43.8 | 51% | 41% | 0 | ARZ | 65 | 35% | 61% | 1% | |
| CLV | 121 | 55.1 | 51.1 | 48% | 39% | 0 | PIT | 113 | 62% | 31% | 1% | |
| DAL | 65 | 31.0 | 25.2 | 46% | 37% | 0 | WAS | 95 | 51% | 44% | 2% | |
| DEN | 66 | 28.4 | 32.1 | 46% | 47% | 0 | KC | 65 | 61% | 29% | 4% | |
| DET | 124 | 62.5 | 52.7 | 52% | 42% | 0 | MIN | 94 | 45% | 47% | 2% | |
| GB | 105 | 57.7 | 38.6 | 54% | 37% | 0 | BLT | 131 | 53% | 39% | 2% | |
| HST | 84 | 49.7 | 28.3 | 54% | 37% | 0 | LAC | 100 | 46% | 47% | 2% | |
| IND | 103 | 66.4 | 28.7 | 61% | 31% | 0 | JAX | 90 | 50% | 40% | 3% | |
| JAX | 64 | 32.7 | 22.7 | 47% | 42% | 0 | IND | 104 | 41% | 57% | 0% | |
| KC | 89 | 50.4 | 33.4 | 57% | 39% | 0 | DEN | 85 | 37% | 50% | 2% | |
| LV | 124 | 63.0 | 51.6 | 51% | 41% | 0 | NYG | 107 | 64% | 31% | 3% | |
| LA | 95 | 51.1 | 38.1 | 51% | 45% | 0 | ATL | 129 | 79% | 17% | 0% | |
| LAC | 85 | 54.7 | 26.4 | 64% | 29% | 0 | HST | 90 | 49% | 42% | 2% | |
| MIA | 89 | 58.1 | 24.8 | 66% | 28% | 0 | TB | 109 | 47% | 45% | 2% | |
| MIN | 115 | 65.9 | 45.0 | 57% | 40% | 0 | DET | 99 | 52% | 44% | 0% | |
| NE | 112 | 57.1 | 44.8 | 55% | 38% | 0 | NYJ | 68 | 63% | 28% | 3% | |
| NO | 103 | 67.7 | 28.6 | 67% | 25% | 0 | TEN | 97 | 48% | 44% | 0% | |
| NYG | 124 | 60.8 | 53.5 | 47% | 45% | 0 | LV | 51 | 54% | 33% | 1% | |
| NYJ | 102 | 59.9 | 34.7 | 51% | 38% | 0 | NE | 114 | 33% | 54% | 3% | |
| PHI | 110 | 75.1 | 33.3 | 61% | 36% | 0 | BUF | 133 | 43% | 46% | 3% | |
| PIT | 105 | 59.8 | 40.0 | 56% | 38% | 0 | CLV | 66 | 58% | 34% | 4% | |
| SEA | 88 | 47.7 | 39.0 | 52% | 47% | 0 | CAR | 79 | 49% | 41% | 4% | |
| SF | 88 | 39.1 | 41.3 | 39% | 53% | 0 | CHI | 131 | 66% | 27% | 2% | |
| TB | 78 | 52.0 | 24.0 | 63% | 35% | 0 | MIA | 153 | 55% | 37% | 2% | |
| TEN | 63 | 31.4 | 25.2 | 50% | 41% | 0 | NO | 61 | 72% | 21% | 4% | |
| WAS | 141 | 68.3 | 59.6 | 46% | 45% | 0 | DAL | 100 | 64% | 31% | 2% | |
| NFL | 99 | 53.4 | 38.1 | 53% | 39% | 0 | NFL | 100 | 53% | 39% | 2% |
