Our panel of’ ‘perts takes a look at the top 5 RB’s and give their reasoning behind each pick. Take a look-see-a-doo and see if you agree, disagree, or abstain from thought all together. I choose the latter usually. Linkaruski.
Edit: The Fantasy Football Drafting Tiers have been updated. Take a look.
Jay Cutler was booed and booed some more by the Bronco faithful last night and I cried at least six tears, one for each of Cutler’s incompletions. I’ll give Cutler some credit; he played well under adversity. Not that Denver has much of a defense. I was thrown a bit by Chris Collinsworth’s investigative reporting of Jay Cutler hooking up with Greg Olsen and his wife for a threesome. Now I don’t condone deviant sexual behavior in my draft picks but I will overlook it for Mr. Olsen who I have a fantasy crush on, apparently not in the same way Cutler does.
Matt Cassel: It looks like he will be sidelined week one with a MCL sprain. The Ravens were looking forward to doing that to him in week 1, but now they’ll have to settle for injuring Tyler Thigpen.
Samkon Gado: Didn’t this guy help Frodo destroy the ring of doom? Well, now he’s backing up Steven Jackson. The Rams have been looking for a #2 RB for a while now and with 2 TD’s in the last game it looks like Gado is the man. In deep leagues he is Jackson’s handcuff, but I think I’d rather have someone else if SJax goes down. No offense to Samkon, but his feet are just way too hairy.
Chris Henry: The man with two first names scores a TD for his third straight preseason game, this time against the powerhouse Rams defense! Well, whoever it was against, Henry has looked good all preseason. If he didn’t have Coles blocking him he would be going in the top 75, but he does. He has a lot of upside, but don’t reach for him just because he has had some good preseason games.
Byron Leftwich: He has won the starting job in Tampa. I was rooting for him, but this has little fantasy implication. There are some fantasy worthy players in Tampa, but I’m staying pretty far away from them.
Tom Brady: He looked like he was playing catch in the backyard with Moss once again. If Moss has single coverage it’s a touchdown. There really is no stopping them, well, unless someone like Fat Albert Haynesworth smashes Brady into the dirt and breaks his little quarterback torso in two. But sadly thankfully Brady will be ok after getting planted.
Aaron Rodgers: The Packers/Cardinals game didn’t have much defense in it, but it is always nice to see a little offensive explosion from one of your favorite players. King Friday decreed this Mr. Rodgers Day as he threw 14-19 for 358 yards and 3 TD’s in just a half. He also ran for 39 yards on 2 carries. The guy is impressive.
Chris Wells: On the other side of the ball Beanie showed he was well by rushing for 2 TD’s. This cranked his value right back up after being out with injuries. He is more talented than Hightower, but this one game doesn’t make him the starter. Temper your early season expectations and remember he may not stay healthy.
Kevin Smith: He looked good against Indianapolis, rushing for 50 yards on 8 carries and he also had 3 receptions for 33 yards. He will be solid this year. I would not be worried at all with him as my #2 RB as long as Samkon Gado isn’t my #1.
Drew Brees: It looked like a regular season game as Brees picked apart the Raiders like a beignet in the French Quarter. I like mine with coffee from Du Monde. The Raiders are soft. They have some nice players, but nothing holding them together. I know this isn’t a revelation, but keep this in mind when playing matchups.
Ray Rice: Even though Rice didn’t look great on the ground he still ended the game with 18 touches for 99 yards. This is what you get when you have a back that catches the ball as much as he runs it. Rice won’t carry the ball 30 times, but with 20 touches he’ll get you over a hundred all purpose yards. I keep drafting him whenever I can.
Hakeem Nicks: Trying to decipher the Giants’ wide receiver situation is a full time job and I am not a fan of work. The latest contender is Nicks. He caught 6 passes for 144 yards and 2 TD’s. This of course was in the second half with David Carr at QB. But with Smith and Hixon not exactly blowing people away Nicks is someone to watch, which means Smith and Hixon aren’t as high as they once were.
Jabar Gaffney: He is out with a fractured thumb for a few weeks which will make Brandon Marshall’s presence even more imperative. I’m not dropping Marshall any further. I think he is worth a late third round pick.
Teddy Bruschi: He finally retires after 47 years in the NFL. He seemed like he was a nice guy and a class act and all that, but I didn’t know him. He could have eaten live miniature horses for all I know.
The ESPN Fantasy Football Championships may be just a bit of a misnomer since anybody with ten bucks and an April cheat sheet can walk through the door unmolested. There was some interesting info from John Clayton, Stephania Bell, and Mr. Matthew Berry, but mostly I was sitting there adding apps to my iphone.
"And Winslow was there too."
Coach Ditka was supposed to be there to import some of his fantasy knowledge, but his plane went down in flames, oh wait, let me check my notes. No, his plane was late, which means he was passed out in a hotel room somewhere. Ditka and fantasy advice don’t go together anyway. Ditka and “coherent sentence” don’t really go together either, but that’s neither here nor there. After Ditka bailed we broke up into groups to draft.
What 500 men with nothing better to do on a Saturday morning look like.
As you can see LT and Peyton drafted together. When I asked each for their autograph they were extremely rude. Don’t pick them this year. Also, Cutler was drunk and belligerent.
So there were around forty 10 team leagues and the overall winner gets five grand and a trip to the desert. My league was a mixture of novices and what seemed to be seasoned players. There were some odd and downright bad picks and a few good ones. I was a bit thrown by some of the picks and got scared and hid under the table.
10. RB: Steven Jackson — I’ve been a little down on my man SJax lately, but at #10 he was a steal. I was getting a little giddy when MJD lasted until #7! I knew things were going to get a bit wacky at that point.
11. RB: Chris Johnson — CJ was a no-brainer in round 2. I knew this would make WR’s a little tougher to get, and Randy Moss was just sitting there all alone like the nerdy girl with glasses in one of those teen movies where everyone in the theater knows she’s hot but for some reason the people in the movie are completely oblivious.
30. WR: Steve Smith — I don’t like Smith that much, but he was the best left on the board. I wanted to just grab 2 WR’s at this point, but AGonz was next on my list and I had a hunch that my league mates might let him slip back to me so I went with my man crush next.
31. FLEX: Ronnie Brown — Hey, I know I’m going out on a limb touting Brown as much as I have. He will lose some carries to Williams and he has his injury history. He is a bit of boom or bust, but I love his boom, and not his bust.
50. WR: Anthony Gonzalez – So someone took Tony Gonzalez and I thought I heard him say Sir Gonzo the 2nd, but thankfully he dropped to me. My other man-crushinator isn’t my ideal #2, but I am happy I got him at #50.
51. QB: Donovan McNabb — I continue to make the same mistake with QB’s. Rivers and Rodgers were gone and I was worried McNabb or Schaub wouldn’t get back to me at 70, but I should have known Schaub would have made it, and he would have. For as much as I preach not to grab QB’s early I always seem to get an itchy trigger finger. If only my man Sage was around. We could have a shootout!
71. Bench: Hines Ward — We have Hines ranked higher than others, but I still see him as the clear #1 in Pittsburgh and I wanted a consistent backup to Smith. And his smile is just so contagious, not like the swine though.
90. Bench: Matt Schaub — I just couldn’t pass on him. I like having a good backup QB and I could see him surpassing McNabb. And weirdly this league doesn’t allow trades because they are afraid of cheating so I felt a good backup QB was essential.
91. Bench: Derrick Mason — I like my solid old WR’s!
110. Bench: Leon Washington — I will dub thee LDub and you shall surpass Tom Jones in touches and I decree that when this happens all shall bow to The Razzballian!
111. TE: Zach Miller — I could have waited on Miller, but I like him quite a bit and I didn’t see anyone else on the board that just had to be taken, and the tight end hole needed to be filled. (ok, ok)
130. Bench: Jerious Norwood – I think Norwood will get more touches this year to spell Turner and if Turner goes down to the gypsy curse of 370 JerNor (no?) will be awesome in that offense.
131. Defense: San Diego — I’d like Sproles to return a TD or two and Merriman and company to get some sacks and interceptions. Thank you.
150. Bench: Lauverneous Coles — He was the best left on the board. He’s a possession receiver and when you think possession you think Bengals.
151. Kicker: Adam Vinateiri — Colts are going to score a lot. At least I’ll get all those PATs, that’s that.
If you’re like me (and let’s not kid yourself, you definitely want to be like me) over the last month you’ve probably heard all the fantasy advice clichés you can stand. You’ve ranked your players, you’ve tiered your positions, you’ve identified your sleepers, and you’ve done a silly number of mock drafts while at work, but now as draft day approaches you’re getting nervous. Or maybe you’ve screwed the pooch and draft day is in 15 minutes. Either way, don’t freak out, just remember a few simple tips and you can draft like a seasoned pro, or at the very least you’ll make it look you like spent more than 20 minutes preparing.
Tip 1: Be aware of your surroundings.
No joke, depending on where/how your league drafts, different times/locations/styles/formats can have significant impact on your draft success. For example, if you’re drafting in bar or restaurant, buy your leaguemates drinks and plenty of them, preferably shots. If you’re doing a live internet draft, make sure the draft application works on the computer you’ll use, find a comfortable chair, and hurl insults mercilessly from your mom’s basement to other players; hopefully they’ll be too busy conjuring rebuttals they won’t be able to focus on the task at hand. If doing auction, bid up players you know other owners have mancrushes and remember to throw down a Tight End joke when you successfully get them to bid too much on Greg Olsen.
Tip 2: Take risks.
Fantasy sports are not won by going down the list of ranked players and picking the next best available player. You’ve seen this before: guy shows up with magazine purchased 10 minutes ago on the way to the draft. Guy picks players from the overall 100 list until his roster is full. Guy loses. Don’t be that guy. Be prepared to reach for some players you really like, be prepared to pass over a “sure thing” or the big name if you have a gut feeling. Remember winning requires a combination of skill and luck, without taking a risk here and there you’ll significantly reduce your potential for catching Marques Colston in a bottle.
Tip 3: Don’t draft backup QBs, and in some cases a Kicker.
Many perts advocate waiting till the final round to draft your kicker, and that’s fine if your drafting late in the preseason, but I take this a step further. If I’m drafting with a couple weeks or more left in preseason, I ignore the Kicker and backup QB positions altogether and many times I’ll bypass D as well. By freeing up these picks, you can make a few more high upside picks at the WR and RB positions. When the start of the season rolls around, you’ll have a much better idea of which of your sleeper choices are going to get playing time, then drop or trade some players to grab a waiver wire kicker and defense. Barring injury, you won’t need your backups until week 4 at the earliest (when bye weeks start).
Tip 4: Have fun.
Remember that it’s just a game. Have fun, drink some beers, make some passes at the waitress or leaguemate’s sister. If you’re so stressed about fantasy football your blood pressure is rising, you shouldn’t be playing. Seriously, take up poker because most of us don’t want to play with you. Enjoy the camaraderie of the league and use the draft to catch up, crack jokes, and have an all around good time. If you do this, I promise you won’t be so bummed when Adrian Peterson gets his knee destroyed in a vicious frog-splash pancake tackle by Shaun Rogers in week 1 (you heard it here first!).
There are a lot of football players in the NFL. So many that if you tried to fit them into a clown car you’d have to have a monster sized blender and even then I just don’t see it happening. So fitting 50 NFL players on this little screen was no small feat. If you are extremely on top of things, you may notice that Thomas Jones skipped from the top 50 post into this one. And Ray Rice flew from this post in the future and is now in the top 50 post. It’s all very complicated and I have my people on it, but suffice it to say, Jones dropping, Rice rising.
I will be using these rankings when I draft at this Nerd Festival outside Chicago. I hope to meet my childhood hero, Matthew Berry. Where I will do my journalistic duty and find out once and for all what he reads between masturbation sessions.
Also, if you get a hankerin, there are still a couple slots left in the RCL Leagues. Give the organizers an email for more info.
And I’ve updated the 2009 Fantasy Football Tier Rankings because I care.
51. Desean Jackson: All the reports about DJax out of camp have been glowing and hopefully not the radioactive kind. His ceiling is somewhat low with the amount the Eagles spread the ball around, but he is their true #1 and should put up close to #1 numbers. ADP: 43 Projection: 7/1000
52. Eddie Royal: Much of Royal’s value comes from Brandon Marshall’s lack of value. And Marshall’s value seems to fluctuate with every training camp report. Royal should get more looks because the Broncos’ want to see him do well with the unpredictability of Marshall and his lack of playbook knowledge, but don’t go overboard on Royal. He will have a good season, but Marshall is sticking around and they will throw him the ball. ADP: 55 Projection: 6/1050
53. Chad Ochocinco: The annoying one has looked good in preseason. He has risen up my draft charts a little, but I still worry about the Bengals’ O-line and how loco en la cabeza Ocho is. ADP: 37 Projection: 8/950
54. Hines Ward: Mr. Consistent, Ward blocks, he catches, he smiles. We know his upside by now, but that upside is worth quite a bit. I tend to take a mixture of upside and consistency on my teams and Ward has consistency out the upside! ADP: 77 Projection: 7/1000
55. Donald Driver: Hines’ counterpart on the consistency front, Driver is tough and stable. He won’t win you any dropped jaws when you take him to the prom, but he’ll put out. ADP: 81 Projection:7/1000
56. Tony Romo: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.
57. Antonio Bryant: His injury in preseason hurts already low expectations for Bryant this year. He won me leagues last year and I want to like him again, but the coaching and QB situation hurt him more than his preseason injury which he should recover from. ADP: 71 Projection: 7/975
58. Willie Parker: Things have been looking good for FWP in preseason. Not that he has wowed the world, but that Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t. The prospects aren’t amazing for Parker, but they aren’t as horrible as they looked earlier. ADP: 65 Projection: 6/950, 1/150
59. Torry Holt: He is old and his fingers go into positions no fingers should go, but he is wiley and crafty and all that stuff and he will run good routes and catch the ball. Garrard hasn’t really had that luxury with his wide receivers. With the constant threat of MJD even on 3rd downs Holt should be able to get open and should have a productive year. ADP: 95 Projection: 7/950
60. Julius Jones: His value keeps fluctuating like a Mike Holmgren heart monitor. First there was news of a trade for Thomas Jones and then the Seahawks signed Edge and then they dropped TJ Duckett! The RB situation is not clear, but I believe Jones has more life in his legs than Edge and will get the bulk of the work. I’m sticking with JJ, for now. ADP: 93 Projection: 5/1000, 1/150
61. Thomas Jones: It’s not unusual to want to draft Thomas Jones. It’s not unusual to look at his stats near the end zone. But if you draft him too high I’m going to see you cry. Oh, you’ll wanna die. ADP: 58 Projection: 7/900, 1/100
62. Joseph Addai: How this RBBC shizz will break down is beyond me. It seems like the “ambiguously starting duo” will see their production mirror each other pretty well over the entire season. I sure don’t expect the Colts to help us fakefootballers out here. ADP: 57 Projection: 5/830, 2/225
63. Donald Brown: See above, weep. ADP: 78 Projection: 5/790, 1/300
64. Lee Evans: Evans is a peculiar case. With the addition of TO he should have more opportunities to get open deep which is what he does well, but he will lose looks. If Edwards was an elite QB I’d be doing a little jig for Evans, but he is way too inconsistent with a Swiss cheese line. He will have some big games along with some duds, just like every year. ADP: 64 Projection: 7/950
65. Derrick Mason: Here forms the triumvirate of oldish consistent WR’s. The Bran Triumvirate of Ward, Driver and Mason will not let you down, so to speak. Flacco has looked good in preseason and should help Mason have another high reception year with decent yardage and TD’s. I don’t see Clayton taking away any touches so he will be the man once again. But check his ADP, he can be had later at value. ADP: 99 Projection: 6/1000
66. Donovan McNabb: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.
67. Derrick Ward: If he was the every down back he would be the second coming of 2008’s Derrick Ward, but with a rotation of Graham and “Don’t call me Yugo” Williams it is very difficult to see how the backfield will shake out. I’m staying away even though I’m tempted. ADP: 47 Projection: 4/850, 1/275
68. Kurt Warner: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.
69. LenDale White: LenScaled-Down White will continue to get goalline carries. If you need the TD’s then grab the TD’s. ADP: 66 Projection: 11/750
70. Jonathan Stewart: His lingering achilles injury is concerning a lot of owners right now. How long will it linger? Will it flare up during the season? Will it run off and join the circus? All valid questions. Right now I am somewhat concerned, but his TD potential is too good to let him drop far. ADP: 68 Projection: 7/800, 0/125
71. Chris Wells: I hate rookies. I mean, really, what good are they? But sadly rookie RB’s can be good and Wells is in a good situation to produce. Hightower couldn’t do much last season except score touchdowns, so Wells, if he can learn the system and show something in preseason could see a lot of work early on. I am not sold on either him or Hightower and could see either or neither making an impact this season. How’s that for waffling?! But Wells’ upside is higher while Hightower’s stability is higher. Go with the upside. ADP: 76 Projection: 5/795, 1/175
72. Matt Schaub: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.
73. Dallas Clark: The Colts have a nice schedule against poor pass D’s and Manning is ready to go. Clark will continue to do well, with more upside this year than the last. ADP: 58 Projection: 6/825
74. Tony Gonzalez: Gonzo will block more this season and won’t get nearly the targets he got with KC last year. But he will have a better QB and supporting cast so he should see plenty of Red Zone targets. ADP: 53 Projection: 6/800
75. Leon Washington: It looks more and more likely that a large share of the offense will run through him, but he’ll have to fight off mean Jones and Greene. ADP: 105 Projection: 4/750, 1, 250
76. Felix Jones: There isn’t much room in the Cowboys backfield for Jones to get too many looks. A lot will depend on what he does when he gets those looks. He has the ability to break one at any time. ADP: 72 Projection: 2/600, 2/425
77. Santana Moss: I’ve been preaching against Moss this preseason and I’m not going to stop until the whole world knows my message! I will spam email you, will leave little anti-Moss pamphlets on park benches! Ah, he’s not THAT bad, he’s just too inconsistent with a sad QB. In head to head leagues he will make you cry. ADP: 74 Projection: 6/950
78. Fred Jackson: He gave all those Lynch owners who handcuffed him a scare when he injured his wrist, but it looks like he’ll be ok for the season. He’s tied to Lynch, but with a little more upside than other handcuffs because he will get 3 games of extensive work. ADP: 103 Projection: 3/650, 1/375
79. Cedric Benson: He’s a starter. Not a very good one. ADP: 73 Projection: 4/800, 1/175
80. Owen Daniels: He looked poised for a huge season until Schaub went down. He still ended up with top 10 numbers, but this year with a healthy Schaub he should push the big 4. ADP: 92 Projection: 5/850
81. Rashard Mendenhall: Mendy is dropping like that stone in the stone vs. feather experiment. If only we lived in that vacuum! Willie Parker is small, injury prone, light as a feather, and in the last year of his contract. The Steelers want Rashard to get a lot of time and take over, but he’s just not doing it yet. I need to see a little more life out of him. ADP: 103 Projection: 5/700, 1, 200
82. Matt Ryan: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.
83. Santonio Holmes: Holmes has breakout potential, but I think Ward will still get most of Big Ben’s attention unless Holmes learns how to fix a TV. ADP: 60 Projection: 7/850
84. Greg Olsen: He will be Cutler’s security blanket. He is now the official starter and will challenge the top 5 TE’s this year. And he could be related to Merlin Olsen. ADP 67 Projection: 5/850
85: Carson Palmer: Lots of upside and lots of downside because there’s a good chance he’ll be on his backside. If he can stay healthy I think he’ll have a good year. Ochocinco, Coles and Henry make up a nice core of receivers and he’ll need to get them the ball a lot. ADP: 86: Projection: 27/3650
86. Kellen Winslow: Winslow should do well in his new tropical environs. Whoever his QB ends up being, probably Leftwich, he’ll need to have an outlet like Winslow. He should have a top 10 season with top 5 potential. Why do I think of cantaloupes when I think of Winslow? ADP: 80 Projection: 5/825
87. Devin Hester: Cutler will make Hester better. It is inevitable. He will never be a true #1 receiver, but he can get close on the back of Jay Cutler’s arm (mixed metaphor alert!). ADP: 79 Projection: 6/925
88. Jerricho Cotchery: There isn’t much drabber than Mr. Cotchery. He makes me sleepy just typing his name. ADP: 94 Projection: 6/900
89. Percy Harvin: He is a wildcard at this point. He is explosive, but sometimes explosions are, well, painful. He is very much worth a flier, but the hype machine is in full force, so don’t get caught in it’s gears. ADP: 97 Projection: 1/100, 5/800
90. Chris Cooley: He is a safe bet for 75-80 receptions, but on a Redskins team that I find painful to watch I don’t see him getting into the endzone too often. ADP: 84 Projection: 5/800
91. Steve Breaston: He only needs Boldin to tweak something for a few games for him to post big numbers for a #3 receiver. ADP: 101 Projection: 6/900
92. Patrick Crayton: He is being overlooked, but he is the #2 receiver on a team that is built to put points on the oversized giant low hanging scoreboard. ADP: 140 Projection: 6/875
93. Ted Ginn: Another player being overlooked this season, Ginn is the #1 receiver on a team that should be better offensively this year. This is also his magical 3rd year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him belch first downs and fart rainbows. ADP: 106 Projection: 6/870
94. Donnie Avery: He seems to be healing quickly from his stress fractured foot. I just don’t know what kind of stress his foot must have been under? Did his foot have to speak in front of a large crowd or was his foot behind on his mortgage payment? Whatever the problem it seems to be getting better and Avery is the best receiver on that Rams team. ADP: 89 Projection: 6/850
95. Laverneus Coles: He seemed like a nice replacement for Houshmandzadeh, but with Henry playing so well in preseason I could see Coles losing some looks to him. There is even a possibility Henry could take over as the #2 so I am going with Henry if I can get him later. ADP: 88 Projection: 7/800
96. Jay Cutler: He has an arm bestowed by Purple Jesus himself. But sometimes he thinks he’s bigger than PJ and nobody is bigger than PJ! He will make the Bears better, but won’t have the numbers he had last year. ADP: 85 Projection: 24/3600
97. Tim Hightower: Beanie is a weanie or at least his muscles and ligaments are and if he can’t really take over the job it defaults to Hightower. He is worth a late round pick. ADP: 98 Projection: 5/700, 1/175
98. Pittsburgh Steelers: The only defense I would even contemplate picking in the top 100. I still wouldn’t do it, but I’d contemplate it. ADP: 90 Projection: Bringing Pain!
99. Ahmad Bradshaw: I am banking on Jacobs injuring himself this year. When I wrote that down and slid it to the teller they thought I was robbing the place. Getting Bradshaw late in your draft might be like robbing your league mates, bah doomp chee cha! ADP: 91 Projection: 3/550, 2/380
100. LeSean McCoy: With Westbrook’s oldness taking over his leg area McCoy is a safe bet to get at least some work, but with a chance for much more. ADP: 83 Projection: 4/650, 1/275
101. Kevin Walter: The Houston offense is going to be a fantasy village to pillage. ADP: 82 Projection: 5/825
UPDATE: Brandon Marshall: (Marshall has been suspended for the rest of the preseason. He will drop in ADP, but as long as he gets on the field he is still worth a pick. I’ll insert him back in the rankings soon) Well, he didn’t get sent to prison so he will be playing football, which needs to happen if you want him to score points on your team. Eddie Royal looks to take away some of his receptions this year and he has Orton (or maybe Simms) throwing to him rather than the strong armed Cutler. He won’t disappear, but lower your expectations a bit. ADP: 37 Projection: 7/1050
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