Fantasy Football Advice

Fantasy drafts are happening all over the place and yours may be this weekend.  Or maybe  you’re planning on doing your 12th fantasy draft this weekend because you have a fantasy football addiction like me.  It’s a common affliction this time of year.  Whether it’s your first draft or your 12th draft, the late rounds are important to winning any fantasy championship.  Value and upside are key in the late rounds, and St. Louis Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola provides both, especially in PPR leagues.

Since Amendola is a white receiver who catches a lot of passes I’m obligated as a fantasy writer to compare him to Wes Welker, the best white receiver since Ed McCaffrey.  So here it is – Danny Amendola is a lot like Wes Welker.  He’s a high motor, high character guy.  Wait, those two clichés are for white defensive lineman.  Dammit.  I get all the white clichés mixed up.  The bottom line here is Amendola is a slot receiver who quietly caught 85 passes with a rookie quarterback last year, and I think he’ll catch more than that this year.

Josh McDaniels is the new offensive coordinator for the St. Louis Rams.  When McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots in 2007 and 2008, his white slot receiver (Wes Welker) caught 112 passes and 111 passes in those years, respectively.  Not to mention the over 1,150 yards from Welker both of those seasons to go with all those receptions.  A McDaniels offense features a white slot receiver heavily, and Danny Amendola is just that.  Good news for Mr. Amendola.  Hooray for whiteness!

Amendola’s quarterback, Sam Bradford, is entering his second year after a very successful rookie campaign.  He threw the ball 590 times in 2010, good for the third most in the league.  The coaching staff is obviously comfortable with Bradford throwing often, which bodes well for Amendola.  Amendola was targeted 122 times in Bradford’s rookie year.  With McDaniels calling the plays, that number could increase.  Welker was targeted 145 times in 2007, and 150 times in 2008 in McDaniels’ New England offenses. (more…)

Nothing beats a rambling preamble.  By the time the tumbleweed stopped tumbling, Sam Elliot wrapped up his narration, and the Dude finished paying for his milk with a check for 69 cents, you knew you were about to witness greatness.   Circumnavigating the fantasy football world, you come across a lot of bizarre characters.  (When did douche become so ubiquitous and multi-faceted?  That’s not a name they’d self-apply where I come from.)  Of course, if there’s one thing uniting this motley band of fellow travelers, it’s this: The Sleeper List.

There’s only one problem.  The vast majority of the players mentioned aren’t real sleepers.  Can Jimmy Graham be a sleeper if he’s being drafted within a round of Vernon Davis and ahead of Owen Daniels?

A guy with exciting potential doesn’t morph into a sleeper just because he’s surrounded by overpriced veterans.  If you had to choose between Ryan Grant and James Starks in the fifth round (you don’t have to, thank God), Starks would be a no-brainer.  Sure, if you had the magical ability to average the results of the 2011 season across all existing parallel universes, Grant would finish with a lot more points.  Sadly, nobody who drafts Ryan Grant in the fifth round is going to make their league playoffs, so what’s the point?  On the other hand, in those rare instances where Starks breaks out, you actually have a legitimate starting running back.

On the third hand – possibly one of those hands emerging from the aliens and trying to molest Olivia Wilde – Starks has an ADP right at the tail end of the 7^th round.  You’re spending starter dollars on a guy who won’t start on his own team in Week One and maybe not ever.  If the possibility of a breakout is already (over)priced into his ADP, can he really be a sleeper?

Trying to decide exactly who falls into what category is challenging but important.  You’ve got post-hype (Kevin Kolb, Ryan Mathews), breakout (Dez Bryant, Mike Thomas), rookies who are already overexposed and yet you try to convince yourself are sexy upside picks (A.J. Green, Mark Ingram), post-post-hype (Jay Cutler), and even boring veterans that might not actually suck (Fred Jackson).

Sleepers are different, a special breed.  They are Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson.  If a guy’s being drafted anywhere in the first 10 rounds, he isn’t a sleeper.  He’s just somebody you’d rather have on your team than Joseph Addai.  After all, this isn’t Nam.  It’s fantasy football.  There are rules.  Any entry that violates this rule really requires only one response: Mark it zero.

A real sleeper is somebody most people will look at George Bluth-style and think, “Him?”

Someone like Tarvaris Jackson.

Err . . . huh?  The guy who’s been the biggest punch line of the free agent period?  Fantasy value?  It’s down there somewhere.  Let me take another look. (more…)

The free agent insanity going on around the NFL has opened a big door for Chargers rookie wide receiver Vincent Brown.  Former San Diego wide receiver Legedu Naanee has signed with the Carolina Panthers, and by the time you read this article free agent Malcom Floyd might be on a different team.  As I write this Floyd is still a free agent, but there are strong rumors of him being signed by the Ravens as soon as today (August 5th).

So if Naanee is gone and Floyd is on his way out, who’s going to be the #2 wide receiver for this high powered San Diego offense?  It’s going to be a camp battle between Patrick Crayton and Vincent Brown and Brown has a great shot at winning it.

The #2 wide receiver spot in San Diego is a valuable one in fantasy football.  We’re talking about an offense that features a 3-time Pro Bowl quarterback – Philip Rivers – who threw for 4,700 yards and 30 TDs last season.  Even the third option in the passing game will record solid stats with a guy like that throwing the ball around.  Hell, Rivers made guys like Naanee and Seyi Ajirotutu fantasy relevant at times last season.  If he can do that for those guys, he can do it for Vincent Brown too.

Heading into April’s draft, Brown was considered one of the most NFL ready wide receivers in the entire class.  He’s a very polished route runner and he played in a pro style offense at San Diego State.  In his final season at SDSU, he recorded 69 catches, 1,352 yards (19,6 yards per catch) and 10 TDs.  Even in the Mountain West conference those are pretty impressive numbers.

The biggest knock on him is his speed – he ran a 4.71 at the combine.  He later improved that time at his Pro Day when he ran a 4.52 and a 4.57.  That’s better, but still not overly fast.   He’s also considered undersized at 5’11 and 187 lbs.  These two issues are legit concerns, but what he lacks in size and speed he makes up for with great hands and NFL-ready route running skills.  Despite his faults, he was still a 3rd round pick in the draft.  That should tell you something.  The kid can play. (more…)

Late season production from the previous year can provide a glimpse of potential production for the upcoming year.  There were a few players that came on strong in the last quarter of the 2010 season after having a not-so-great first three quarters of the season.  These here fellers are looking to build on their late season studliness in 2011.  But should you trust them for your fantasy team?  Let’s take a closer look.

Tim Tebow (DEN – QB): Tebow finished 2010 with three consecutive games of 20+ fantasy points (standard scoring). Within this three game stretch, Tebow had a rushing TD in every game and over 75 rushing yards in two of them.  His solid play gave everyone in Denver a collective Tebow-ner and according to Steve Wyche of the NFL Network, the starting QB job in Denver is Tebow’s to lose.

Denver is asking for a 2nd round pick for Kyle Orton, but will likely only get a 3rd round pick and some shaving cream and a razor since Tebow will use that stuff and Orton won’t.  Orton may not be back.  A John Fox offense isn’t going to pass as much as a Josh McDaniels offense, but Tebow’s rushing ability combined with the vote of confidence from the NFL peeps around the league make Tebow a borderline top 15 fantasy QB heading into 2011.  The Tebow-ner fantasy meter is on the rise.  Pun intended.

Ryan Mathews (SD – RB): With Darren Sproles set to test free agency, there will be a good chunk of work – particularly in the passing game – to replace in the Charger backfield if he leaves.  Mathews’ 349 total yards and 5 touchdowns in the final four games of 2010 show he’s capable of nice numbers, even if Mike Tolbert theives a goal line TD or six or seven.  I’m drafting Mathews with confidence as my RB2.  He’ll be the main horse in San Diego, or in Saint James if you speak English like I do.

James Starks (GB – RB): Starks was a bit of a playoff hero with his play in the post-season, but when you take a closer look the guy averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and scored just once in those four games.  Ryan Grant is still the better back, and I see a 65%-35% type of split in touches between the two in 2011.  Grant’s job appears safe – he just comes with some injury risk.  He’s still a 18-25 touches-a-game RB. (more…)

We’re in full draft prep mode here at Razzball football.  We’ve got wide receiver rankings, running back rankings, drafting tiers, ADP analysis, and a whole lot more fantasy football draft prep goodness to warm your fake football hearts.  It’s enough to make your head spin!

As part of this draft prep, we’re scouring the NFL landscape for potential break out candidates.  I took my talents to the Bay Area and found a nice piece of fantasy football potential buried within the cockles of the Oakland depth chart.  Hey, the opportunity to use the word cockles presented itself, so I had to take it.  It’s a word I don’t get to say much but it’s just so fun to say. Cockles.

Outside of a stud running back and a solid tight end, there isn’t much fantasy goodness to be found in Oak-town.  Once upon a time WR Chaz Schilens was on the fantasy radar, but injuries have slowed down his career.  Attention shifted to WR Louis Murphy who has had decent games here and there, but nothing fantasy owners could rely on.  Darrius Heyward-Bey has been a Heyward-Bust.  So who is going to step up for this Raider wide receiving corps?  Jacoby Ford, that’s who!

Ford didn’t play much until week 7 of the 2010 season.  Once he got his chance to show the NFL world what he could do, he made the most of the few opportunities he was given.  Ford, in limited playing time, scored 4 touchdowns on 35 offensive touches, including a 71-yard TD run against the Broncos and a 44-yard TD reception against the Chiefs.  When you look at his three 94-yard, 99-yard, and 101-yard kickoff return TDs, it’s easy to see Ford is a threat to score any time he touches the ball.  That’s what 4.28 speed will do for a player.  He’s wicked fast.  Wicked, I tell ya!

Ford is by no means a polished receiver.  This is just his second season in the NFL after all, so he still has some learning to do.  Given head coach Hue Jackson’s recent comments, it appears Ford will have every chance to improve his game.

“Obviously Jacoby is going to become a household name because he has some very special ability.  He’s very good with the ball in his hands – he’s very good without the ball in his hands because he draws a lot of attention.  He’s just scratching the surface of what he can truly be.” — Raiders head coach Hue Jackson on Jacoby Ford via NFL Network (more…)

Most fourth round NFL draft selections go relatively unnoticed by fantasy footballers.  In fact most rookies regardless of what round they’re drafted in take a while to make any major NFL impact.  But as I continue my search for those elusive diamonds in the fantasy rough, I’ve stumbled upon a rookie that has a good shot to make some noise this year.

Washington traded up to select Nebraska running back Roy Helu in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL draft.  Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has a knack for finding productive running backs in rounds three or later.  He finds one-cut, speedy running backs to compliment his zone blocking offensive scheme.  Shanahan has made running backs like Selvin Young, Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson, and Mike Bell all fantasy relevant, and none of them were selected in the first or second round.  Those guys were only fantasy relevant for a brief time, but at one time they all were producing for fantasy teams.  Roy Helu may be next.

Helu has prototypical NFL size at 6’0″, 220 lbs.  He can handle first and second down duties.  For a man that big, he has exceptional speed as well.  Helu ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at the 2011 NFL Combine.  In a zone blocking scheme, game-breaking speed may be the most important asset a running back can have to find success.  Helu has it.  One cut, hit the hole, gone.  Remind you of any Mike Shanahan running back?  Helu reminds Shanahan himself of one of his former running backs:

“In Denver with Clinton [Portis], he was that 4.45 guy coming out, very physical, and once he had that open lane, he could go the distance.  At that time, he was about 205 pounds and averaged almost six yards a carry.  I look at Helu as having that type of ability, that type of speed.” — Mike Shanahan on Roy Helu

Shanahan likes Helu.  Good to know.  The only thing standing in the way of Roy Helu being a third or fourth round fantasy selection is the presence of Ryan Torain.  Torain is fairly productive under Shanahan – he averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season.  The problem is Torain runs with an upright running style which makes him vulnerable to injury.  In 2008 while in Denver (under Shanahan), Torain tore his ACL in his first start of the season.  Done for the remainder of the year.  In 2010 while in Washington (again under Shanahan), Torain suffered a hamstring injury and missed essentially 5 games.  Does that concern you?  It certainly concerns the Washington Redskins.  The guy gets hurt.

With Torain’s inability to stay healthy, Helu may get his shot to be the lead back in Washington sooner rather than later.  However, there are some strikes against Helu.  He’s not a strong pass catcher.  He doesn’t block well either.  These flaws keep him from being the ideal every down NFL back, and these flaws are also what contributed to him slipping to the fourth round of the NFL draft.  Like any rookie, he has some work to do.  If he does get his shot, he’ll likely be the first and second down back with Keiland Williams remaining the third down back.  Even with that said, if he does get his opportunity, he’ll be productive.  All Shanahan backs are.  That’s just the way it is.

Roy Helu had 11 touchdowns to go along with his 1,245 yards on 188 carries (a 6.6 yards per carry average) in his 2010 season at Nebraska.  That tells me he’s an explosive, productive running back.  He didn’t miss a game in 2008, 2009, or 2010.  That tells me he can handle a heavy workload.  With this lockout situation Torain will begin the season as the starter, but don’t be surprised if Roy Helu takes the job by mid season.  A starting Shanahan running back would hold solid value in fantasy football, don’t you think? Yes, indeed.

Helu is currently being drafted in the 10th and 11th rounds of 12-team 2011 fantasy drafts as an RB4 or RB5.  Torain will get another shot, but he’s running out of chances.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Helu starting by mid season and producing RB2 fantasy numbers.  Helu may end up being the best 10th round pick you ever made.  Don’t forget about him late in your fantasy drafts.  He’s worth the risk.

For more 2011 Sleeper Files from yours truly, check out my post on this Pittsburgh Steelers wide out.

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After an injury riddled rookie season Ryan Mathews has been as high as #8 in some fantasy rankings and as low as #26 with respect to running backs.  There was a lot of hype surrounding Mathews and his high draft selection in 2010.  Except between injuries and the stellar play by Mike Tolbert, Mathew’s touches were cut into dramatically.  However, this year is certain to be different, better.  Mathews only played in 12 games in his rookie season. (Only had 5 carries in another game thanks to an injury)  Even with missing all that time, Mathews was still able to accumulate very respectable rookie numbers, with 158 carries for close to 700 yards and seven scores.  Yes, three of those came in the finale against Denver, but it was on the road with Tim Tebow at the helm so we can assume that they were still playing hard.  Mathews also added in 22 receptions for almost 150 yards.

With the Chargers having traded up 16 spots to snatch Mathews, it is a safe bet to say that the Chargers are not going to let one subpar year deter them from giving Mathews another go at carrying the load.  Last year coach Norv Turner said they would look to get Mathews anywhere from 300 to 350 touches.  Why should this year be any different?  This year I look for him to be an absolute workhorse.  Perhaps Sproles will sneak into a third down role every now and again, of course he will still have his package of plays and Tolbert may steal a few goal line touches.  That being said, I still see Ryan Mathews as a breakout star and in a division where the Chargers are still the cream of the crop.  This year I think they break out of their traditional early season stumbles and really grab the AFC West by the horns.

With Mathews having such a down year in his rookie year there are going to be a lot of fantasy owners that will shy away from the second year player for fear of a repeat performance.  He will most likely drop in my opinion into a third or fourth round of standard drafts and in keeper leagues he was almost undoubtedly dropped from most all teams.  In those leagues I still would see him as a second or third round selection at best.  He is kind of the forgotten man in the fantasy world, especially after all the excitement that stirred about him before last season.  Now given these circumstances it is hard to ignore that the value of where someone will get him is without question, a steal.  When you can get someone who is going to produce a thousand yard season that is also a legitimate threat to catch passes out of the backfield, then you have indeed found yourself a sleeper.  In keeper leagues, I look for Mathews to be kept in upwards of 95% of them after this season.  Thus, bringing him full circle in only his second NFL season, going from sleeper to keeper.