Strength Of Rush Defense, 2010 Schedule
July 18, 2010
Category: 2010 Fantasy Football, Statistical Strategery
Using my rankings from the last post I did sum calculatin’ and came up with what we have below. Long story long, the numbers are the average overall defensive rush ranking for each opponent through 16 weeks, 8 weeks and weeks 14 through 16 (week 17 is null and void).
There is absolutely no way to know how well a defense is going to play for the upcoming season. There are too many variables from year to year to take the previous years numbers as gospel. I know it, you know it and the American people kinda know it. But the big BUT is that we don’t have a ton to go on. Yes, the Bears should be better with Urlacher and Peppers (why doesn’t Brian change his last name to Salt?), but they also lost Alex Brown and you just don’t know how the team will come together. And when I say the five worst run defenses last season were KC, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and St Louis, I think we are safe in assuming they aren’t going to switch places with Green Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Dallas. On the average, the poorest defenses stay poor and the strongest stay strong. It usually takes a couple years for a very bad defense to completely turn things around.
In this chart I have it sorted so the teams with the easiest schedules against the run for the entire season are at the top. So with all that said, here are the numbers –
For those of you (me) touting Justin Forsett, this makes you (me) breathe a little easier. Seattle gets Oakland, KC, St Louis, New Orleans, Denver and Tampa Bay. Really, the AFC West and NFC West face each other and themselves and that means plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Our man Ray Rice gets a good playoff schedule facing Houston, New Orleans and Cleveland.
Chris Johnson also gets a nice playoff schedule with Indianapolis, Houston and Kansas City. So you might want to up CJ’s ranking from 1 to Double 1. (no, not 11)
Beanie Wells gets the easiest first half of the season schedule.
The Giants have the toughest playoff schedule with Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay. Makes me dislike Brandon Jacobs more, but like Ahmad Bradshaw a bit less.
Ricky and Ronnie have a tough first half of the season, but it gets better and better. Whoever is still kicking at mid-season might end up being a good trade target.
Overall there are some good backs with favorable schedules including, Forsett, Gore, Charles, MJD, SJax, Wells, Moreno and the Panther duo.
The losers in these rankings are any Buffalo Bills’ running back (but weren’t they already?), The Giants’ duo, LeSean McCoy (his receptions should off set some of that), Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant and Matt Forte.
Just a little food for thought. I don’t let these rankings skew my overall rankings too much, but they can help. Last season I always had Jamaal Charles a click away because of his playoff schedule and it paid off. Keep an eye on those matchups!
Now click on that Borg cube and you’ll see the entire schedule –
July 19th, 2010 at 7:38 am
Doc – I would really appreciate your help picking my keepers. My team has not made the playoffs in a few years although I have been 4th or better in total points. It seems my players are very streaky.
Our 10-team league uses requires us to keep 4 players (out of 17). Keepers are kept in the round that they were drafted. 1/2 point per reception, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing / receiving, 1 pt per 25 yards passing. 6 pts bonuses for over 100 yards receiving / rushing or 300 yards passing. 8 pts for rushing / receiving tds, 6 pts for passing tds.
My options are as follows:
Deangelo Williams – 5th round
Favre – 14th
Big Ben – 11th
McFadden – 2nd
Calvin Johnson – 3rd
LeSean McCoy – 7th
Miles Austin – 17th
Marcus Colston – 17th
Vernon Davis – 17th
B Celek – 17th round
I think that Calvin, Austin, Colston and DeAngelo are the best options, but I didn’t know about McCoy in the 7th because I am able to keep him for the forseeable future and if he turns into a player than the 7th is a very reasonable round for a #1 or 2 back. What do you think? Also, if you think I should package a couple of these guys and go after someone that you think might have a breakout year, please let me know that.
Thanks!
July 19th, 2010 at 8:17 am
Is Alex Gonzalez going to come back next season and be the WR he was in 2008? If so he seems like a huge sleeper pick.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:32 am
this is awesome
July 19th, 2010 at 9:38 am
@Giacomo: In my opinion Favre, Ben, McFadden, B Celek are out due to age, where you drafted them and Davis and Celek are in the same round so advantage Davis.
That leaves Johnson, McCoy Austin, Colston and Davis.
With the value left I would keep McCoy, Austin, Colston and Davis due to the fact that you can still draft Calvin in an early round again but by the rounds that you have the other players they most likely will be gone.
Hope that helps.
@Giacomo: That’s tough. Those 17th rounders are great value, but Deangelo, Johnson, Austin and McCoy are the most keeper worthy. It’s hard to judge without knowing who might be available in those rounds.
@Shack: AGonz is still up in the air injury wise. The Colts aren’t being to upfront. Plus Pierre Garcon looked pretty awesome last season. Any Colt receiver who is healthy has value of course, but I’m not high on him right now.
@Dominic: Thanks!
July 19th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Thanks Doc. I know you are very high on Jamaal Charles, and I might be able to trade one of the 17th rounders for him. If I could do Colston straight up for him or Moreno, I should do it, correct? Moreno is a 5th rounder and Charles is a 12th rounder. Obviously Charles would be better but if he won’t move him, then Moreno would be another option.
@Giacomo: I would trade Colston for either.
July 19th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Oops I didn’t see DeAngelo haha yea I would keep him.