Fantasy Football Advice

It’s the first annual Razzball Fantasy Football awards!!! This is your last chance to reminisce and pretend that football season’s not over with and that, after the playoffs, you won’t be stuck watching the NBA.

When the fantasy season ends, or when all their teams are out of contention, most people just shut it down until late August. I think it’s worth it to reflect on the year a little bit; it helps you to recognize trends and patterns that develop and sharpens your decision-making the following season. So if nothing else, this is an opportunity to do that.

Razzball Football is a 365 day a year operation. In this, our first season, we have built and expanded upon our fan base more than we thought possible. You can count on fresh content every single day of the year so if you’ve got a football itch, you know where to go to get it scratched.

Some of our readers may not have checked out the Razzball Baseball site yet. This is actually where Razzball began. Grey does an incredible job with baseball and he’s year-round as well. So if you play Fantasy Baseball, be sure to check out our baseball site and stay tuned all season long. It’ll pay huge dividends in the way of you winning your league this year.

Greatest Player in the History of the Universe (for 2009)

Chris Johnson: his preseason ADP was 12^th despite the huge numbers last year because people feared the newer, thinner version of LenDale White would steal touches. That turned out not to be the case. We have entered an age of the NFL where splitting touches between two or three running backs is the norm. In addition teams game plan to contain the biggest threat on the other team. Regardless of all of this Chris Johnson had a ridiculous season. Look at the numbers: 2,006 yards rushing, 50 catches for 503 yards.16  total touchdowns (14 rushing, 2 receiving). In .5 PPR Johnson put up 368 points for the season! The second best position player was Adrian Peterson with 304 points, a difference of over 4 fewer per game. On the surface I know people will say “It’s not that big a deal, one player always has a good season.” The distance from his competition, though, is shocking.  It’s akin to having owned Albert Pujols in Fantasy baseball last year. In 2010 Johnson will clearly be the consensus #1 player in every format. This year the big debate was “AP or MJD?” Some people threw Turner in the mix, which I thought was stupid. In 2010 we shouldn’t have to listen to any of that mind-numbing conversation.

MVP’s by Position

The end of the season brought a lot of surprises to the NFL. After clinching bye weeks in the playoffs several teams elected to sit their starters or bench them mid-game. This was disastrous for fantasy owners because these teams (Colts and Saints in particular) were high powered offenses and contained some of the best quarterbacks in the league. It’s uncertain what the long term ramifications will be; the NFL wants teams to go full strength the entire regular season. If that doesn’t happen we might have to occasionally re-think owning certain players. Personally, I’m hoping that Peyton Manning and Drew Brees’ value take a slight hit so I can own them next season on the cheap.

The reason I bring up the fact that a lot of teams rested their starters is that it mixed up this section of the awards, particularly at quarterback. Peyton Manning had a great statistical season and Drew Brees broke the record for completion percentage. But none of that mattered because they killed your team in weeks 16 and 17. Statistically speaking, Rodgers and Rivers hung with Peyton and Brees anyway. But the fact that the young guns carried you in the playoffs while the veterans hung you out to dry tips the scales in their favor. I put the runners up in parenthesis.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Phillip Rivers)

Running Back: Chris Johnson (Maurice Jones-Drew)

Wide Receiver: Andre Johnson (Larry Fitzgerald)

Tight End: Vernon Davis (Jason Witten)

Return League MVP

Josh Cribbs was a beast this season. Let’s just look at the numbers: 1,994 return yards, 4 return touchdowns. MONSTER season on that alone but then wait, there’s more: 20 receptions for 135 and a TD, 381 yards rushing with one TD, and he threw for 18 yards but no touchdown and there was an interception. So in other words if you were cagey enough to grab Josh Cribbs in the draft you ended up with 2,500 all purpose yards and 6 total touchdowns. In a year when there weren’t a lot of good return men that’s HUGE differential.

IDP MVP

Patrick Willis is a man-child. His hobbies include stomping kittens and single-handedly conquering small countries. His numbers this year were ridiculous: 152 tackles (114 of them solo), 4 sacks, 8 passes defended, 3 interceptions, and one touchdown. Basically, Lawrence Taylor but with less sacks and without the rampant cocaine use.

Sleeper(s) of the Year

You know all those Chuck Norris one-liners that make him out to be a deity? Basically you can cross his name out of all those and replace it with Jamaal Charles. Here at Razzball we’re not afraid to pat ourselves on the back. We were touting Charles from the beginning of the season as a player with huge breakout potential. He didn’t get much playing time until mid-season but once he did Charles became a top producer on a weekly basis. Through 9 weeks in .5 PPR he’d only accumulated 36.9 points. Consider that he finished with 207.7 points while only starting from week 10 on. Once he took over he averaged 24 Fantasy points per game! There were some nice sleepers this year in fantasy but in my mind there’s only one top Sleeper of the year- Jamaal Charles

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers

Running Back: Cedric Benson, Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison

Wide Receiver: Miles Austin, Mike Sims-Walker, Steve Smith (NYG), Sidney Rice

Tight End: Vernon Davis, Brent Celek

Team Defense: San Francisco 49’ers, NY Jets

Hyped Players that were Busts

What’s the secret to successful fantasy football? The first thing that comes to mind is “picking the best sleepers.” That is certainly a huge part of it, and probably the most fun thing about fantasy football. More important than that, however, is avoiding the biggest busts.

Each season certain players are touted by the fantasy universe as breakout candidates. We all target these players in our drafts and feel uber-smart when we get them, even if we reached. They are like sticks of dynamite on our roster, waiting to explode and carry our team to greatness.

Some of these players end up exploding like dynamite and having a huge impact on our team, but in a negative fashion. If you had several of these players on your team you probably didn’t fare too well.

Quarterback: Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan

Running Back: Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas

Wide Receiver: Eddie Royal, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Roy Williams

Tight End: Zach Miller

Team Defense: NY Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers

Veteran Players that Busted

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer

Running Back: Marshawn Lynch, Derrick Ward, Brian Westbrook

Wide Receiver: Terrell Owens, Greg Jennings, T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Tight End: Surprisingly, there weren’t any players that fit in this category. Jason Witten was extremely disappointing early in the season but he finished really strong.

Rookie of the Year

Doing the awards for this season has makes you realize how very sub-par this draft class was. There are some nice players out there, I loves me some Jeremy Maclin for shizzle; but think about who would have been up for these awards last season and the type of numbers they put up. There’s a lot more talent overall in this year’s NFL draft class (which we’ll be covering extensively) and that’s exciting for Fantasy next year. I didn’t end up with hardly any of the rookies from this year’s class on my teams because they were being drafted too high for my blood- the monster 2008 rookie campaigns that Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, etc. had boosted the price too high. Anyway, back to the awards:

Quarterback: Do we really have to give an award out for this one? Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both played well and led their teams to the playoffs last season, making it difficult to pick who was better. This year we get to choose between Stafford and Sanchez, both of whom had flashes of brilliance but no consistency. As an aside if I were to choose between these two for next season I’d probably go with Stafford; but for this season, the award has to go to Mark Sanchez. Congratulations, Mark; don’t go all “Matt Leinart” on us (a.k.a. Poor Man’s Joe Namath) in the offseason now.

Running Back: It’s really surprising that none of these players took the bull by the horns and ran away with this award. Here’s a stat that’s hard to believe: number of rookie running backs with 1,000 yards rushing this season- 0. Clearly this is a race between Moreno, McCoy, and Beanie Wells. Knowshon you’re not a bad guy, I think you will be undervalued next season and I will probably own you, but you just didn’t do enough this season. Beanie Wells closed out the year solidly but Tim Hightower stealing the goal line work really killed his production. Congratulations LeSean McCoy, but don’t get too big of an ego. You wouldn’t have even been in the conversation for this award last year.

Wide Receiver: This was clearly the best position for Fantasy this year in terms of rookies. It’s a difficult position to come in to the NFL and be productive at. Jeremy Maclin put up huge numbers but wasn’t really integrated in to the game plan until mid season. Michael Crabtree was very productive but the holdout stymied him having a breakout season. The player who wins this award didn’t close out the season that strong, due to injuries and other factors. Even so, Percy Harvin compiled 60 receptions for 790 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also had 1,156 return yards and two touchdowns.

Tight End: There were no real impact rookies at Tight End this season. Brandon Pettigrew was the best with 30 receptions for 346 and two touchdowns. He went on IR but if he’s healthy coming in to next season I will definitely be touting him as a sleeper at TE.

Surprise Season from a Veteran Player

Quarterback: Brett Favre

Running Back: Thomas Jones (Ryan Grant)

Wide Receiver: Chad Ochocinco

Tight End: Visanthe Shiancoe

Best Kicker

David Akers, Nate Kaeding

Before we look at the games, I want to say thanks to Doc for stepping in for 3 weeks while I closed and moved into my first house. Like Pedro Cerrano, you’re in good hands with Doc. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

For these playoff games, I’m adding a short “What To Watch” section. I often pick a particular position matchup or aspect of the game that I intend to focus on, to break the habit of just watching the ball on every play. Sometimes the camerawork dictates how successful this endeavor is, but I’ve found it’s a good way to start noticing other parts of the game.

Saturday 4:30 EST

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Great start to the passing matchups…the Jets and Bengals combined for 63 yards passing last week. Even if you don’t count the sack yardage against the total, it doesn’t crack 100 yards between the two teams. While I expect improved totals from both teams, it’s hard to feel good about this matchup. The Jets won’t be able to run 57 times like last week, so while I can’t recommend Sanchez, there’s at least an opportunity for Cotchery to get some looks. Dustin Keller is affected more by Sanchez’s inconsistent play than the opposing defense.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1 (more…)

We continue our playoff rankings with wide receivers, tight ends, defenses, and kickers.  We went over quarterbacks and running backs yesterday.  So if you slap this post together with that one you have a rankings sandwich that will satiate your playoff hunger.

Wide receivers are a crapshoot already, but add a receivers inherent sketchiness to the playoffs one and done-ness, and you have a recipe for some poor choices.  And that tastes not nearly as good as a rankings sandwich.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: This is a bit of a shaky number one since there is always a chance that Peyton could use Reggie as a decoy, but I feel like he is the safest bet for overall production.

2. Randy Moss: His talent should put him at #1, but I worry about the Welker effect.  It’s similar to the Revis effect, but hurts Moss every game, not just when they play the Jets. You could argue that Moss will see more passes his way, but he should have some trouble shedding double coverage without Welker around.  He will get his no matter what, but will they get past Baltimore? If you think so he’s easily worth a top pick.

3. Miles Austin: I almost put him at number one, but he has a chance to be one and done.  Romo knows that trying to placate Roy Williams doesn’t win games and that Miles Austin is the real deal. (more…)

Good Christmas Eve morning/day/evening to all y’all’s!  I had planned on airing my Festivus grievances today, but I thought I’d do some passing matchup analysis instead.  But there is one that’s relevant here and could actually be my biggest grievance on this lovely morning; it is not knowing how long the Colts will play their starters! Read on to find out my take for now.  The rankings are based on my strategery chart which I’ll post this afternoon.  Everyone have a good Festivus and good luck on your feats of strength!

Make sure you enter our week 16 contest. A Razzball mug that says “Sonavabench!” on it will make you a hipster, but nobody will know you’re one!

Christmas Night 7:30 pm

San Diego (24th) @ Tennessee (14th)

Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson have started connecting again, but Cortland Finnegan is also back from his injury and is playing well on #1 receivers.  It really depends on how much Rivers wants to test Finnegan.  Peyton Manning just went to Garcon instead of throwing to Wayne when they faced him.  I would downgrade VJax a bit, but it’s not exactly a Revis situation. I do look for Antonio Gates to have a big game against DVOA’s 31st ranked defense against tight ends. Malcolm Floyd has been getting enough looks to be a decent play in deeper leagues.

San Diego: Rivers +2, Jackson +1, Floyd 0, Gates +2

Vince Young had a career high 3 passing touchdowns last week.  His hamstring seems to be better and he gets a Chargers’ pass defense that in the last 8 games is giving up on average 265 yards passing and almost 2 TDs.  A lot depends on how badly the Chargers want to stop Chris Johnson, but no matter what, they have to try.  With Justin Gage back the Titans have three legit receivers which makes it harder to decipher who gets the fantasy points, but Kenny Britt is still the best receiver and with VY in there, is a good start. Bo Scaife is getting his targets, but they are usually check downs. If you need 4-5 receptions for 40-50 yards, he’s there.

Tennessee: Young +1, Britt +1, Gage 0, Washington 0, Scaife 0

Sunday 1 pm

Tampa Bay (9th) @ New Orleans (18th)

Josh Freeman had shown some life for Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow, but Bryant had a choice matchup against Seattle and sadly couldn’t do much.  Winslow on the other hand continues to get a lot of work no matter what.  The Saints have been tough on TEs and held Winslow to 29 yards in Tampa, but he still got 5 receptions.  Sammie Stroughter actually had more looks than Bryant last week, but he also broke his foot. Does this mean Bryant will see more work? Yes, and they will probably be throwing a lot indoors. He is a risky start, but I love me some Antonio Bryant.

Tampa Bay: Freeman -2, Bryant +1, Winslow 0

Drew Brees and company looked mortal against Dallas last week, but they get a much easier opponent this week.  The Saints still need to win to clinch home field throughout and Payton says he won’t rest players, so unless they get up big, which they might, I would feel good with starting them. Tampa’s pass D is actually decent statistically, but they’ve also faced some pretty poor passing attacks lately.  I would have no qualms with starting Colston and Meachem and possibly the founder of Wendy’s, Dave Thomas, if Shockey doesn’t play.

New Orleans: Brees +2, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Thomas 0

Houston (8th) @ Miami (22nd)

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are quickly becoming a top 3 duo and Miami isn’t equipped to stop them. Schaub is focusing on AJ and then spreading the ball around too much to his secondary receivers for them to be worth much in your fantasy championship.

Houston: Schaub +2, Johnson +2

Sparano doesn’t mind giving Chad Henne a lot of work when behind (not from behind) and this could be one of those games. Henne is too risky to start, but this game could become a shootout and Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess should see a lot of targets.  They are only options in ppr leagues, but I feel like they are fairly safe, especially Camarillo.

Miami: Henne o, Camarillo +1, Bess 0, Fasano -1

Seattle (31st) @ Green Bay (20th)

The Seahawks just lost to Tampa Bay at home and now they get to travel to Green Bay. They can’t seem to settle on a starting running back and Matt Hasselbeck is always an injury risk. Add to that, their best wide receiver Nate Burleson is hurt and you have the makings for a poor showing. Deion Branch actually led in targets, but still had a poor game last week.  The Packers gave up 500 yards passing to the Steelers, but don’t expect half of that this week.  The only Seahawk who looks like he has a shot of a decent game is John Carlson, but even then I think you can find a better option.

Seattle: Hasselbeck -1, Houshmandzadeh -1, Branch -2, Carlson 0

This could get ugly.  If I ranked quarterbacks each week Aaron Rodgers would be at the top. The forecast looks cold, but clear right now, so it shouldn’t be too much of a factor.  Jermichael Finley has led the Packers in targets the last 2 games and is a great play once again. He’s easily a top 5 TE this weekend.  Greg Jennings had a big game last week, but now with Finley grabbing so many targets Jennings and Driver might have a little trouble both having big games. The matchup is too good to sit them though.

Green Bay: Rodgers +2, Jennings +1, Driver +1, Finley +2

Carolina (6th) @ New York Giants (29th)

Steve Smith had a retro game last week and seems to be playing a bit better with Matt Moore under center.  He should out duel the other Steve Smith and then that Steve Smith will have to change his name to Jacob Higgenbottom.  Moore also had a big game last week, but going to the Meadowlands is going to be a taller order to fill.  Yes, the Giants pass defense is terrible, but Moore is too unproven to throw him into your championship starting lineup.

Carolina: Matt Moore 0, Steve Smith +1

Carolina hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to hit 16 fantasy points all season and only 5 to get above ten.  Little Brother has been tearing it up lately and quietly having a pretty good year.  He has a lot of weapons, and even though there probably won’t be one stand out fantasy , is hard to bench the guy throwing to them.  I’d lower expectations a bit, but in a tough choice, ride the hot hand.

New York: Manning +1, Smith 0, Nicks 0, Manningham 0

Oakland (23rd) @ Cleveland(25th)

Talk about your clash of the passing titans! This is like the 2007 Patriots vs. the 99 Rams! Let’s look at the numbers. The Browns QB’s are averaging 9.1 fantasy points a game while the Raiders QB’s are averaging 9.0 fantasy points!  This game could decide which team has the worst fantasy passing attack of the year! Oh, and I have to say QB’s instead of a player’s name because there are quite a few of them out there for these pitiful teams. Charlie Frye looks like he will play again, and even though Jamarcus Russell led them on a game winning drive, Frye gives their one fantasy player through the air a chance and that’s tight end Zach Miller.  He is back from a concussion and could have a productive game.

Oakland: Frye -2, Miller +1

Derek Anderson will get the start which doesn’t really mean much.  Both offenses will try to rely on the run for the most part.  There isn’t one QB/WR/TE I would start on the Browns team.

Cleveland: ugh

Jacksonville (26th) @ New England (28th)

The forecast is calling for mid 4o’s, but a chance of rain and snow.  It’s too early to get wind predictions so it’s something to keep an eye on, but for now we’ll look at it as if they’re playing in an airplane hangar.  Both of these teams have something to play for, so feel warm and fuzzy about that.  David Garrard, like I’ve said before has a multiple personality disorder, well, this team does actually.  You never know how they’ll play. I would not want to start Garrard, but depending on your options he may be the lesser of two evils. Mike Sims-Walker looks like he is healed up and makes a good play against a bad Patriots secondary.

Jacksonville: Garrard 0, Sims-Walker +1

Tom Brady might have caught some of what Garrard has.  His consistency has gone down the toilet, but at home against the Jags you start him and are happy about it.  And that goes for Randy Moss and Wes Welker as well. The secondary receivers and TE’s no longer get any love.

New England: Brady +2, Moss +2, Welker +2

Kansas City (7th) @ Cincinnati (5th)

Cassel had a nice game against the Browns, but the Browns are the Browns are the Browns. Cincinnati’s pass defense is much better and they need a win.  The Chiefs don’t really need anything except to not break something.  Chris Chambers had a nice game, but that came on limited targets.  Dwayne Bowe got the most targets which included red zone looks. His opportunities should be there again and he has a good chance to get in for a TD, even in a tough matchup.

Kansas City: Cassel -2, Bowe 0

The Chiefs’ good pass D numbers come from facing some pretty poor quarterbacks, i.e. Quinn, Fitzpatrick, and Russell.  All good QB’s have torched them.  There is a good chance we will see a lot of Benson, but Palmer should at least have the opportunity to put up decent numbers.  He broke out of his slump last week, but he was in a pretty big slump.  It would be hard for me to trust him, but if you’re in a pinch, well, you know. I would be able to trust Ochocinco though.  He is by far Palmer’s best receiver and should do well.

Cincinnati: Palmer +1, Ochocinco +2

Baltimore (2nd) @ Pittsburgh (21st)

Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been getting destroyed and with their run defense still playing tough Joe Flacco should be airing it out. I wouldn’t expect 4 touchdowns and no interceptions like he had against the paper Bears, but he is better than a lot of options out there. Derrick Mason continues to do his thing so you should continue to start him. Of course Todd Heap goes off last week after doing about zilch all year.  I would stay away from him.  The same goes for Demetrius Williams, but with the caveat that he is worth a look in deeper leagues. The guy is good, but we just can’t trust him yet.  Keep a keeper eye on him.

Baltimore: Flacco +1, Mason +1, Williams -1, Heap -1

Big Ben went off on a good Packers defense to the tune of 500 some odd yards, 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He was out with a concussion and being chastised by Hines Ward the last time they met the Ravens. In such a heated rivalry often stats have to be thrown out the window and Roethlisberger proved that he can put up great numbers on great defenses.  You don’t start him over a top tier QB with a better matchup, but he is a good start otherwise.  The same goes for Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward.  They are strong plays in a game the Steelers must win.

Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger +1, Holmes +1, Ward 0, Wallace -1, Miller -1

Buffalo (3rd) @ Atlanta (30th)

Brian Brohm will get the start for the Bison. I like that his first and last name shares the same first two letters. Can you think of anymore NFL players that have names like that? And don’t go googling it! But that’s about all I like about Brohm.  He is a downgrade for TO and Evans.

Buffalo: Brohm -2, Owens -2, Evans -2

Buffalo’s pass defense is for real, but they did lose ball hawking rookie Jairus Byrd (get it, he’s a bird and a ball hawk).  The Falcons (another bird) will run the ball a lot with Snelling and Norwood (like ostriches) so I would stay away from Ryan, but Roddy White should be in line for a few targets. He’s not a huge play, but he’s Roddy White and he doesn’t have Revis on him.  Oh, and play Gonzo.  He’s earned it.

Atlanta: Ryan -1, White 0, Gonzalez +1

Sunday 4 pm

Detroit (31st) @ San Francisco (12th)

Drew Stanton will get the start over Daunte Culpepper which is the right move, but Stanton isn’t exactly Y.A. Tittle, but who is? Besides Y.A. Tittle? He is a slight upgrade which helps Megatron a little.  With CJ’s numbers recently I don’t blame you for being extremely skittish, but if you are on the fence about him, Stanton might push you over.

Detroit: Stanton -2, Johnson +1

Alex Smith looked horrible in Philadelphia, but that happens to a lot of QB’s. He’s not a lock, but at home against Detroit is the best Smith is going to get.  If you don’t have an elite QB feel pretty good about starting him as well as most of the other offensive components.

San Francisco: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Morgan +1, Davis +2

St. Louis (16th) @ Arizona (15th)

Keith Null should get the start once again.  He was a little effective last week, but not fantasy effective. The Rams passing game is putrid and spread out.  That isn’t a good combo.

St. Louis: Null -2, WR’s -2

Kurt Warner hasn’t looked like his old self, well he’s looked like his old self, but not his old self.  Oh nevermind.  If you have Warner and another top QB I think I would err on the side of caution and eeny-meeny yourself to the non-Warner guy.  But Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson blew up the Rams last week and Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin really should be able to do the same.

Arizona: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2, Breaston 0

Denver (4th) @ Philadelphia (11th)

Kyle Orton is boring. Thankfully he does throw to Brandon Marshall and Brandon Marshall is the only safe player on the Broncos this week. The Eagles will Flip . . Flip . . Flipadelphia! the Broncos. Or not, we’ll actually have to wait until they play the game.

Denver: Orton -1, Marshall +1

McNabb and company face a good, but deflated Denver pass defense.  McNabb has been playing well and can’t be sat just because they are going against a tough pass defense. Jeremy Maclin practiced and should play, but I would be wary.  Get Desean Jackson and Brent Celek in there.  DJax is the home run hitter and Celek is hitting for average.

Philadelphia: McNabb +1,  Jackson +2, Celek +1, Maclin -1

New York Jets (1st) @ Indianapolis (26th)

This game is extremely hard to analyze because Caldwell won’t tip his hand as to how much the starters will play.  But no matter what, Mark Sanchez is starting, which makes it hard to feel great about their passing attack.  Braylon Edwards caught a long TD last week, but it’s hard to ask for that 2 weeks in a row.  The Colts have been giving up a lot of yardage to receivers so I could see going with Cotchery or Edwards if you had to, but I wouldn’t be doing back flipadelphias over the idea.

New York: Sanchez -2, Edwards 0, Cotchery 0, Keller -2

Do I know how long the Colts starters will play? No, but at this point in the week nobody knows and there is a chance we won’t know until Manning puts on his cap and starts shooting a commercial on the sidelines.  Unless we hear otherwise, regard all Colts as extremely risky.  Besides not knowing if the starters will play a couple series or the whole game, they also get to face the #1 pass defense in the league.  Reggie Wayne faces Revis AND might not go the whole game! You do the math. Of course news might change this week and we could have a clearer picture, but if they were playing in five minutes, I’d say to sit them all unless you have Brian Brohm, Deion Branch and Randy McMichael as your only other options.

Indianapolis: Manning -1, Wayne, -2, Garcon -2, Collie 0, Clark -1

Sunday 8:20 pm

Dallas (10th) @ Washington (16th)

Tony Romo has turned into a must start recently, so you must start him.  The same goes for Miles Austin.  The Redskins have thrown in the towel and the Cowboys want to keep winning in December and in front of national television audiences whereas the Redskins don’t mind looking like utter fools in front of national television audiences.  Jason Witten is up to his old razztastic tricks, but he is getting enough targets to keep starting him. Roy Williams just isn’t that good, but Washington isn’t great against #2 receivers.

Dallas: Romo +2, Austin +2, Williams 0, Witten +1

Jason Campbell went from surging to purging. That offensive smelling line sure didn’t help matters.  Dallas and Washington have played some crazy games in the past, but I just don’t see the Skins turning this season around enough to put up much of a fight. Your only hope is Fred Davis.  Lets hope he gets to the Death Star in time.

Washington: Campbell -1, Moss -2, Thomas -1, Davis +1

Monday 8:30 pm

Minnesota (19th) @ Chicago (13th)

The Brett Favres hit a little Major Dad speed bump, but they get the folding Chicago Bears on Monday night to help right the ship (count the mixed metaphors and win a prize!)  Can you rely on Favre after his down games? Not really. Do you start Kyle Orton over him? Not really.  This game should be the Adrian Peterson show.  Sidney Rice is really the only sure start this week, with Harvin and Berrian bringing up the rear.

Minnesota: Favre 0, Rice +2, Harvin +1, Berrian 0, Shiancoe -1

The Bears are in shambles.  I wouldn’t touch any of them with a 10 foot cattle prod, well, maybe a cattle prod.

Chicago: Cutler -2, WR’s -2, Olsen -2

I’m subbing for Mark this week and bringing you my take on the passing matchups.  Instead of going with just the passing yards against for the last 6 weeks, I’ve gone to my Statistical Strategery numbers for this week’s matchups.  (Which I’ll be posting later today) And to the main event:

Thursday 8:20 PM

Indianapolis (24th) @ Jacksonville (23rd)

The word is good for this week regarding the imminent sittitude of the Colts studs. Can colts be studs? Ok, this isn’t Horse Digest. Jacksonville has been poor defending the pass all season.  Reggie Wayne has had two good corners on him the last two weeks and should be able to break out of his slump in prime time against the Jags poor CB’s. Pierre Garcon may not see as many looks this week, but he’s still startable.  The Jags have been fairly tough on tight ends, but Dallas is a rich man with a death wish in his eye.

Colts: Manning +2, Wayne +2, Garcon +1, Clark +1

The Colts pass defense has not been great lately.  In the last 8 games their young corners have given up 191 yards a game to wide receivers.  That is 32nd or dead last or not good.  The problem with facing the Colts is they give you the yardage, but make it tough to get into the endzone.  Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Ranger is probable to play.  After his doubtful status got turned into 100% starting status and then turned into sucking status it’s hard to know how he’ll play, but he’s worth a WR #3 play.  David Garrard is a tough nut to crack.  His best game recently was against the Jets in New York! He’s too erratic to risk your playoff matchup on.

Jaguars: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker 0, Lewis -2

Saturday 8:20

Dallas (13th) @ New Orleans (19th)

Romo has thrown 7 touchdowns and averaged 316 yards passing in the last 3 games.  They aren’t winning, but Romo is still helping fantasy teams. Roy Williams has settled down into an ok receiver, not an elite receiver, an ok receiver.  Miles Austin is back near the top of the stud-o-meter and is a must start.

Cowboys: Romo +1, Austin +1, Williams 0, Witten +1

Dallas’ pass defense has been decent, but decent doesn’t stir the jumbalaya in New Orleans.  Start them like you were going to before you started reading this.

Saints: Brees +2, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Shockey 0

Sunday 1 PM

Cleveland (14th) @ Kansas City (14th)

Cleveland has a nice matchup, but they usually don’t capitalize on nice matchups.  The sometimes mighty Quinn has been amazing for a couple games, but then mostly horrid.  He is too inconsistent to even think about starting in your fantasy playoff game.  With his inconsistency goes the rest of the team’s inconsistency.  Mangini in a bottle is looking to give Cribbs more looks in the backfield which will probably look fairly wildcatty, or wild brownie. If he gets the looks, he’s worth a start.  I like him as a WR #3 in this game and if you are in a return yardage league you don’t need me to tell you nothin’.

Browns: Quinn -1, Cribbs +1, Massaquoi -1, Moore 0

Non-Performance Enhanced Dwayne will be playing and has gotten a thumbs up from his coach. It is hard to be really confident in starting him after being off 4 weeks, but he does have a good matchup.  Bowe’s return will hurt Mark Bradley the most, but you don’t own him.  Chris Chambers has gone from startable to not.  With Bowe back he will remain not.

Chiefs: Cassel -1, Bowe +1, Chambers -1

Houston (21st) @ St. Louis (14th)

The Rams recent pass defense numbers are still being inflated by facing some poor quarterbacks.  Feel very good about starting Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.  Sadly they could be sitting on the bench fairly early because the Rams can’t score.  Kevin Walter and David Anderson are getting about the same amount of looks and are canceling each other out.  I think it’s time to give up on Walter if you haven’t already.

Texans: Schaub +2, Johnson +2, Walter -2

Null threw 5 interceptions last week and Boller didn’t practice due to an illness.  Boller may play, but he’s not much better than Null, literally and figuratively.  If you take a look at the targets week by week for the Rams wide receivers on a graph it is a pretty funky roller coaster.  They’ve got some fantasy quality receivers if only they had a fantasy quality QB.

Rams: Boller/Null Ø, Any Rams WR -2

Atlanta (30th) @ NY Jets (1st)

No matter who starts at quarterback for the Falcons, don’t start him.  Matt Ryan did not participate in practice on Wednesday and is questionable right now.  The Jets pass defense at home makes the whole Falcons’ passing game extremely questionable.  Sadly Roddy White might as well not show up, because his stats at the end of the day will look like he hadn’t.  He will get Revis’d, but good.  Michael Jenkins did put in a good statistical game last week, but he’s not worth owning.  Gonzo is always a start cuz he’s Gonzo.

Falcons: Redman/Ryan -2, White -2, Jenkins -2, Gonzalez 0

Mark Sanchez practiced and if everything goes well he probably will go.  His gunslinging ways help the Jets receivers and I think upgrade Cotchery and Edwards against a poor Falcons pass defense. With Clemens in, they just rush, rush and then rush for good measure.  Sanchez may also be handing off a lot as well, but he does have a better arm than Clemens. His start still isn’t for sure so keep an eye on that.

Jets: Clemens/Sanchez -2, Cotchery +1, Edwards +1, Keller -2

Miami (18th) @ Tennessee (16th)

Chad Henne has been throwing the ball a lot since the wildcat was disbanded and doing fairly well, but the Dolphins are still a running team.  Henne is accurate, tying Pennington’s 17 straight completions, and has a strong arm.  They aren’t going to turn him loose unless they get behind like they did to New England where he threw for over 300 yards.  If the Dolphins are playing the game they want, Henne will throw for 175-225 yards 1 TD and no interceptions.  Not exactly QB 1 numbers, which of course makes it hard to get wide receivers a lot of yards.  Bess was doing well in ppr leagues, but got dinged up last week.  Keep an eye on his status and reserve him for ppr only.

Dolphins: Henne 0, Bess 0, Camarillo 0

Miami’s pass defense hasn’t been good this season and can be beat. Of course a lot depends on Vince Young’s status. He sat out of practice on Wednesday, but says he could have come back into the game on Sunday.  The Titans are a completely different team with Collins behind center.  If VY practices Thursday and Friday I’d feel good about starting him, but if he doesn’t practice I would look elsewhere. Kenny Britt is turning into a legitimate #1 receiver and even with Collins he’ll get his looks.  Otherwise you can’t really rely on any Titans’ receiver/tight end.

Titans: Young +1, Collins -2, Britt +1

San Francisco (12th) @ Philadelphia (20th)

Alex Smith is frustrating to own.  He’s about as on again, off again as you can get.  The Eagles have shown some weaknesses in their pass defense of late.  Does this mean Alex Smith can take advantage? I think so, but I think his contributions will help Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree more than him, at least fantasy wise.  I wouldn’t start Smith in a playoff game in Philadelphia, but I would start his best two targets.  

49’ers: Smith 0, Crabtree +1, Morgan, -1, Davis +2

The Niners pass defense is erratic.  Last Monday night they shut down one of the best passing offenses in the league. They play with emotion, just like their coach.  Will they travel cross country off a emotional Monday night game and play with that same intensity? I don’t think so. McNabb has owned the Niners in his 5 career games against them, averaging 277 yards and 2 TD’s.  Jeremy Maclin is hurt so Jason Avant may have some value.  Keep an eye on Brent Celek’s injury status, but he should play.

Eagles: McNabb +2, Jackson +2, Avant 0, Celek +1

New England (29th) @ Buffalo (2nd)

The Patriots aren’t clicking on all cylinders and going to face one of the best pass defenses in the league in the house that Ralph built is not the way to get back on track.  Moss may be pissed about all this “doggin it” talk, and they may want to knock the talking heads off so I just can’t say you should sit him and you can never sit Wes Welker, but you just can’t feel confident about the situation.

Patriots: Brady 0, Moss 0, Welker +1, Watson -2

The Patriots have been pretty awful in pass defense, but the Bills and Ryan Fitzpatrick aren’t exactly passing juggernauts. Lee Evans has been useless this season. T.O. is finding the endzone again and is worth a start against a poor Pats D.

Bills: Fitzpatrick -1, Owens +1, Evans -1

Arizona (22nd) @ Detroit (32nd)

This game should be over before it starts.  The Cardinals will want to reassert themselves after an ugly loss to the 49ers and the Detroit Lions are a good team to do that against.  The only worry is that the starters will be sitting before the first 2 minute warning, but you have to start the studs.  Watch Larry Fitzgerald’s status, but he seems to be fine.  I think you can even start Breaston here.

Cardinals: Warner +2, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2, Breaston +1

It’s looking like Culpepper will get the start again which isn’t the greatest news you could ever hear.  The only player you can think of playing is Megatron.  Daunte threw the ball a ton, but has little to no accuracy left.  Megatron was targeted a lot, but still had a down game.  As long as he’s getting his targets I think you have to start him, especially since they will be down and throwing a lot.

Lions: Culpepper -2, Johnson +1

Chicago (8^th) @ Baltimore (5th)

I’m thinking the Bears shot their wad last week against their rival.  There is no reason to believe Cutler can go to Baltimore and do anything besides throw interceptions and get sacked.  Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu have some skills, but they’re too young to be consistent, especially against the Ravens. Devin Hester hasn’t practiced and even if he does I’d bench him or drop him.

Bears: Cutler -2, Bears WR’s -2

The Bears pass defense has been decent and held down the best fantasy quarterback this year last week, but like I said I expect a let down in Baltimore. That doesn’t mean you go and start Flacco, but Mason is always a solid play.  You will see a lot of Ray Rice and company pecking at the dead Bear flesh.  I hear Ravens go for the fleshy parts first; think eyes and genitals.

Ravens: Flacco -1, Mason +1, Heap -1

Sunday 4 PM

Oakland (25th) @ Denver (3rd)

Charlie Frye is starting and Zach Miller probably won’t play because of a concussion. Enough said.

Raiders: Frye -2, Anyone else -2

Kyle Orton threw the ball 28 times to Brandon Marshall.  That doesn’t leave much room for anybody else to put up any fantasy numbers.  Don’t expect the same this week against Asomugha, but he often doesn’t shadow the opponent’s best receiver so he doesn’t shut down single players like Revis does.  Play Marshall, just don’t expect insane numbers.  Last week they couldn’t run the ball to save their life.  This week Moreno should get a lot of carries and Frye will keep the Raiders from scoring so Orton won’t need to pass nearly as much.

Broncos: Orton +1, Marshall +1

Cincinnati (3rd) @ San Diego (26th)

This is an interesting game. The Bengals have been able to win on defense and rushing, but their passing game has yet to really click. I don’t see it clicking in San Diego.  The last time the Bengals traveled to the west coast they lost to the Raiders.  They will need to slow down the Chargers, by pushing them around in the running game, not trying to go toe to toe in the passing game.

Bengals: Palmer -1, Ochocinco +1

Phil Rivers has been pretty matchup proof this season.  The Bengals are tough and don’t expect a huge game, but Rivers has only missed 16 fantasy points once this year.  Vincent Jackson got back on track last week and is just too good to bench and Antonio Gates is Antonio Gates.

Chargers: Rivers +1, Jackson 0, Gates 0

Tampa Bay (9th) @ Seattle (31st)

The Seahawks pass defense has been non-existent as of late. Josh Freeman has been throwing like he put his hands up and just don’t care and he must not because many of his passes go to the other team, especially in the red zone.  But the Bucs don’t have much of a running game and they do have Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow.  I expect both to get a lot of looks up in the Emerald City. Start both, for reals.

Buccaneers: Freeman -2, Bryant +2, Winslow +2

Matt Hasselbeck is an injury waiting to happen, Houshmandzadeh is a bust and Nate Burleson is out.  Housh may see an uptick in targets, but he’s hard to start the way he’s been playing. Tampa Bay is worse against the run and Talib is a shut down corner so it would behoove the Seahawks to run and run and run with Forsett, not Jones.  Can you hear me Mora?

Seahawks: Hasselbeck 0, Housmandzadeh 0, Carlson -1

Green Bay (7th) @ Pittsburgh (11th)

We’ve all heard it, but it’s true; the Steelers pass defense is average without Polamalu. That doesn’t mean that the Steelers blitz packages won’t hurt Rodgers enough to keep him from going off, but it also doesn’t mean you sit him.  Donald Driver was held to just 11 yards last week, but the Packers will need to throw to move the ball.  I think Driver will get his looks.  Jennings just hasn’t been that good this season.  We could blame it on the offensive line early, but now even when Rodgers gets him the ball he’ll drop it.  He’ll get you 4-5 catches and 50 yards, but asking for more is plain silly.

Packers: Rodgers +1, Driver +1, Jennings 0, Finley +1

The Packers pass defense has been taken over by Chuck Woodson.  They are tough and don’t give up much to wide receivers.  You need to temper your expectations for Big Ben and company.  Santonio Holmes has been playing very well, but will have trouble if Woodson shadows him.  All are starts in the right situation, but be careful.

Steelers: Roethlisberger 0, Holmes -1, Ward 0, Miller -1

Sunday 8:20 PM

Minnesota (9th) @ Carolina (6th)

Carolina continues to have a good pass defense so you’ll probably see a lot of Purple Jesus on Sunday.  I’m not high on Favre out of the dome against a good defense.  Sidney Rice continues to be a stud so it’s very difficult to sit him, so I’d take the easy route and start him. Percy Harvin is still having migraines and has a late start so I would sit him unless we get some good reports.  Berrian just can’t seem to get right, he’s been mini-Jennings this year.

Vikings: Favre -1, Rice 0, Berrian -2, Harvin (check injury reports), Shiancoe -2

Matt Moore should get the start again.  Steve Smith has been doing fine with him in there, but this week he’ll probably get Antoine Winfield which hurts him a lot.  They will have a lot of trouble running on Minnesota so they’ll probably have to throw, so Smith will get his looks, but is a risky play this week.

Panthers: Moore -2, Smith 0

Monday 8:30 PM

NY Giants (27th) @ Washington (17th)

Little Brother had a huge game in a shootout loss last week, but has been inconsistent as usual. The Redskins haven’t been quite as good in pass defense lately.  We might be in store for another high scoring game in D.C. so I see Eli as a low QB #1.  Steve Smith and the recently promoted Hakeem Nicks make good WR #3 starts. Washington has been tough on wide receivers so I’d be careful about starting Boss.

Giants: Manning +1, Smith +1, Nicks +1, Boss -1

Jason Campbell has turned around his season and gets a pitiful Giants’ secondary to work against on Monday night.  I like Campbell, but no receiver is really taking over as a fantasy starter.  Fred Davis is probably the closest player right now.  Davis has been finding the end zone a lot and in the last 8 weeks the Giants have given up 86 yards a game and 11 fantasy points a game to tight ends.  Get Davis in your lineup.

Redskins: Campbell +1, Thomas 0, Moss 0, Davis +2