Fantasy Football Advice

So, apart from Belichick’s gamble creating the greatest debate since Wittgenstein vs. Popper, the big news from last week was the slew of running back injuries. “But Razzball,” you say, “this is a passing matchup article — why are you bringing up running backs?”

Here’s why — teams that were either relying heavily on one back (like Atlanta or Cincinnati) or splitting carries between a couple backs (like Philadelphia or Miami) must now shift some offensive emphasis to their passing game. It’s unrealistic to expect these teams to hand the ball of 25-30 to the 2nd string RB (or some combination of the 2nd and 3rd RBs), so naturally, we can expect to see a small but still significant boost in passing attempts. This is especially important in games these teams lead by several touchdowns, as they may continue to throw more than usual in order to save wear and tear on their running backs.

So, yes, be happy that you snagged Jason Snelling or Justin Forsett. But also keep in mind the potential increase in value for the quarterbacks and receivers on these teams, and adjust your player evaluations accordingly.

Thursday game

Miami (27th) @ Carolina (4th)

Go ahead and cross Chad Henne off your “Has fantasy value in 2009″ list. He’s like a poor man’s rookie Matt Ryan — surprisingly competent, but just can’t be counted on for the yardage and TD’s necessary for fantasy success. Even with Ronnie Brown out, I’m not sure that throwing 5-10 more times per game really boosts Henne’s value, especially not against the Panthers’ 4th ranked pass defense. Davone Bess did total 72 yards on 4 catches, so he’s worth a look in better matchups than this.

MIA: Henne -2, Bess -1, Camarillo -2, Hartline -2, Ginn -2

Consider last week’s performance to be the realistic upside for the Carolina pass offense. Not a lot of yardage for Delhomme, but efficient in completions and touchdowns considering just 24 attempts. Miami has a putrid secondary, so look for a similar result this week. Muhammed led in receiving yards but Steve Smith caught both of Delhomme’s touchdowns. Kellen Winslow had a very nice day against the Miami defense so Rosario’s worth a shot in very deep leagues.

CAR: Delhomme +1, Smith +2, Muhammed +1, Rosario +1

Sunday 1 PM games

New Orleans (20th) @ Tampa Bay (15th)

Probably expected a bit more than 223 yards from Drew Brees against STL, didn’t you? I’d be more concerned about the 7 interceptions in the last 2 weeks. Unless you’ve got a straight up deal for Brady or Manning, however, he’s still your best option, and Tampa’s secondary is middling. I still think Colston is the best red zone target for the Saints so ignore the 2 straight supbar weeks. Devery Henderson had a better week than Colston. Meachem caught a touchdown on his only reception, bringing his year totals to 14 receptions and 4 touchdowns. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option. Shockey’s 105 yard game in Week 7 is starting to look like the outlier in his season, but he’s still a safe option for 50ish yards.

NO: Brees +1, Colston +1, Henderson +1, Meachem 0, Shockey +1

Against a terrible Miami secondary, Josh Freeman was….meh. To be fair, he’s severely lacking in downfield weapons, but our purpose here isn’t to be fair in our player evaluations — it’s to brutally dissect why you shouldn’t ever think about starting Freeman on your team. The upside? Well, he’s not scared of throwing to Kellen Winslow. For the second straight week, more than half of Freeman’s completions were to TE’s or RB’s. Stovall’s worth keeping an eye on in very, very deep TD-heavy leagues. It’s too bad there’s not more WR’s of interest here, because the Saints secondary is fubar — they just signed Chris McAlister as a stopgap measure. McAlister was once a good DB, so you know there’s a reason he was available halfway through the season. Darren Sharper will almost certainly return by Week 12 so the Saints secondary should improve a bit.

TB: Freeman +1, Stovall +1, Stroughter 0, Winslow +2

Atlanta (28th) @ New York Giants (2nd)

Matt Ryan at least cracked 200 yards against the Panthers. The Giants defense finally seemed to get back on track against San Diego (Rivers had 209 yards and 2 INT’s, though he did get a couple second half TD’s). I like Roddy White’s chances of a good game here, but I think the Giants defense may force Ryan into at least a couple errors. Assuming Turner doesn’t play, the Falcons may go with a slightly more pass heavy attack, which should boost yardage totals for White and Gonzalez.

ATL: Ryan -1, White +1, Gonzalez 0

After 3 subpar weeks in a row, Eli finally got back on track against…San Diego’s 11th ranked pass defense, surprisingly. 200+ yards, 2 TD’s, and best of all, no INT’s against a couple athletic and talented corners. This week’s matchup is much more favorable, though if it gets cold and windy for Sunday’s game you should probably temper expectations just a little. Steve Smith remains just a notch above Manningham and Nicks who seem to swap control of the #2 spot on a weekly basis. Kevin Boss only had 2 receptions but one was for a touchdown, but Atlanta has been holding TE’s in check so I’m not sure he’s a great option here.

NYG: Manning +2, Smith +2, Nicks +1, Manningham +1, Boss -1

Buffalo (9th) @ Jacksonville (26th)

Yeesh. I’m a big believer in the idea that continuity is more important for the passing game than the rushing game. Put a reasonably talented RB behind some guys who can block and he’ll figure it out. But there’s too many ways for a passing offense to get off track, and switching your QB (again) and head coach (even assuming the playbook remains the same) isn’t generally a recipe for success for a group that wasn’t terribly successful in the first place. So, what’s the status? Well, word is that Fitzpatrick will take over as QB. Earlier in the season, it was Fitzpatrick who seemed to light a fire under Lee Evans, so there’s at least hope that he won’t suffer from the changes. Fitzpatrick and Terrell Owens are not great options at this point, and time is running out on their chances to get it together.

BUF: Fitzpatrick -1, Evans 0, Owens -1

Given how bad Buffalo’s run defense is, I don’t expect a lot of pass attempts out of Garrard. Sims-Walker should get enough looks to make him playable, but you’d have to think that the Jacksonville will see what Chris Johnson did against the Bills and hand off to MJD as many times as they can. I’d avoid anyone beyond Sims-Walker.

JAC: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker 0, Holt -2

San Francisco (29th) @ Green Bay (6th)

Suddenly there’s plenty of open seats on the Alex Smith bandwagon. Go back a few weeks in the archives here and remember what we said about the risk of playing waiver wire QB’s over proven starters. Most concerning was that Vernon Davis, previously immune to poor passing days from the 49ers, totaled just 16 yards and no touchdowns. For now assume it was just a blip on the radar. Crabtree continues to confirm his talent and #1 role in SF — he’s playable as a WR2 even here.

SF: Smith -2, Crabtree -1, Davis -1, Morgan -2

Aaron Rodgers had a competent if not exciting day against Dallas — he didn’t reach 200 yards and threw just 1 TD, but he also didn’t throw any picks, and added a rushing TD to pad his totals. The 49ers don’t bring as much pressure or cover receivers as well as the Cowboys, so I’m expecting a total more in line with Rodgers’ usual production. Driver and Jennings are excellent plays here, but James Jones shot at being the clear 3rd option is gone with Jordy Nelson’s involvement. The TE production remains split between Lee and Havnar making both virtually worthless.

GB: Rodgers +2, Driver +2, Jennings +2, Jones/Nelson 0, Lee/Havnar -1

Seattle (22nd) @ Minnesota (23rd)

The Vikings defense gave up some surprising yardage to the Lions, so there’s no reason to think that the Seahawks won’t be able to throw against them as well. The big question, of course, is what the hell happened to Nate Burleson? He was targeted just 5 times (Housh had 17 targets) and didn’t catch a single pass. It’s worth noting, however, that in the first Seahawks-Cardinals game Burleson was also targeted 5 times, so I have a feeling it has more to do with Arizona rolling pass coverage his way and Hasselbeck hitting the uncovered receivers than it does any hidden injury or change in WR roles. I still think Burleson’s a better producer than Housh from here forward. Carlson should be in line for a nice game as the Lions TE’s combined for 6 catches, 56 yards, and TD against the Vikes.

SEA: Hasselbeck +1, Burleson +1, Houshmandzadeh 0, Carlson +1

So Favre did (more than) double his yardage from the first Lions matchup, but only tossed 1 TD pass, and it didn’t go to Rice, Harvin, Berrian, Shiancoe, or anyone you had any chance of finding on a fantasy roster. Dugan howzat? Chalk it up to the random nature of football and move on. Rice horded over half of Favre’s yardage to himself, but I think you’ll see Favre spread it around a bit more against a (somewhat) better secondary. Berrian had some red zone targets so don’t forget about him.

MIN: Favre +1, Rice +1, Harvin 0, Berrian 0, Shiancoe 0

Indianapolis (16th) @ Baltimore (13th)

The Ravens pass defense is rapidly climbing the rankings but…so what? The Patriots have been ranked near the top all year in pass defense and it just didn’t matter. Yeah, a couple picks, but 300+ yards and 4 TD’s more than makes up for it. I don’t see that kind of shootout here, but Manning, Wayne, and Dallas Clark are all must starts against any D. Collie and Garcon continue to split value; last week, Collie caught more balls but Garcon snagged the TD. I still give the edge to Collie for now, but this may not be the matchup to take a chance on either of them if you can avoid it. Terrell Suggs will be out for BAL so the defense may not be quite as tough as they’ve been in recent weeks.

IND: Manning 0, Wayne +1, Clark +1, Collie 0, Garcon -1

Everyone expected a little more out of Baltimore’s offense against Cleveland, but the Browns defense played them fairly tough, and the Browns offense was so inept that there wasn’t much reason to take chances. I doubt we’ll see the Ravens rush 36 times and pass just 19 times (including Ray Rice’s wounded duck) against the Colts this week. The Colts are probably a little better in pass defense than their current ranking — giving up that much yardage to Brady and Moss is bound to skew the numbers for a little bit. Derrick Mason and Todd Heap both made some nice grabs last week but I’d bet on Mason being the one to continue his success.

BAL: Flacco -1, Mason 0, Heap -1

Washington (1st) @ Dallas (18th)

The Cowboy’s pass defense is another that finds itself improving statistically each week, and if you think Jason Campbell + imposing pass rush = offensive success, that’s just fuzzy math. Campbell did total nearly 200 yards against the Broncos, but he’s returned to (or stuck with?) his habit of dinking and dunking passes to every TE and RB on the roster. This is a terrible matchup for Campbell, and by extension, Santana Moss, who generally is the only pass receiver of note in Washington. Fred Davis isn’t Chris Cooley but he’s playable — however I worry that his questionable pass-blocking skills may mean fewer snaps for him this week.

WAS: Campbell -2, Moss -2, Davis -1

Last week the Redskins furthered Denver’s woes, taking advantage of the loss of Kyle Orton and coming back to win. The total numbers looked pretty good for the Redskins D, but take a closer look — Orton nearly hit 200 yards in just a half game (and Brandon Marshall was absolutely abusing the Washington secondary). It wasn’t until Chris Simms took over the helm that the Redskins “clamped down”. Romo did just fine against a talented Packers secondary and I don’t see him having a problem here. Teams have been gameplanning around shutting down Miles Austin and Jason Witten (thus the upspike in Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton’s production), but I think Austin’s yards-after-catch skills will net him some big gains here.

DAL: Romo 0, Austin +1, Williams 0, Crayton 0, Witten +1

Pittsburgh (12th) @ Kansas City (24th)

No two ways about it — Roethlisberger looked terrible against the Bengals. 40 pass attempts to get 174 yards is not good. But while Cincy’s D looks bad statistically and can be kind of good, the KC defense is just as bad on the field as they are on paper. They looked alright last week against JaMarcus Russell and Bruce Gradkowski but basically every defense looks good against the Raiders. The only risk here is whether the Steelers will shift to a run-heavy attack. As such, you may want to temper expectations in terms of yardage, but I’d still look for the Steelers to take a few shots downfield with Holmes and Wallace, and target Ward and Miller in the redzone.

PIT: Roethlisberger +1, Holmes +1, Ward +1, Miller +1, Wallace 0

There’s the stinker from Cassel: just over 200 yards, no TD’s, and a pick to boot. And to top things off, the Chiefs just lost Bowe for 4 games. Chambers steps into the #1 role. You’ll see lots of recommendations for Lance Long, but I can’t help but wonder if the Chiefs will move Mark Bradley into the #2 WR spot and leave Long in the slot (hey-o!). Still, he should get a few more targets over the next 4 games. Fortunately, you should not be tempted to start any of them against the Steelers, even sans-Polamalu, so you have a week to see how things play out.

KC: Cassel -2, Chambers -1, Bradley -2, Long -1

Cleveland (19th) @ Detroit (32nd)

Holy smokes. Can we just move on? The only pass-involved Brown with a pulse was Josh Cribbs; apparently Brady Quinn found this insufferable and used his final playcall of the Monday night game to sabotage the single remaining interesting player. Who’s looking forward to Derek Anderson in another week or two? Here’s a fun stat — in the last 12 months, no Browns RB or WR has scored a touchdown.

CLE: The Field -10

Signs of life from the Lions pass offense! The Vikings secondary isn’t great, but still, you can’t feel too bad about Stafford spreading the ball around, hitting Calvin Johnson 8 times, Northcutt 6 times, and his TE (Pettigrew and Heller, no sign of FitzSimmons this week) 6 times. The Browns defense was motivated on Monday night against a division rival, but an early game against Detroit that will be televised virtually nowhere? I like it. I think Megatron should have massive success against the Browns secondary, Northcutt’s not a bad low-end option, and I still believe Pettigrew is the TE to have out of the group.

DET: Stafford +1, Johnson +2, Northcutt +1, Pettigrew +1

4 PM games

Arizona (30th) @ St. Louis (25th)

Cake. Walk. Excepting his 5-INT game (and yes, I know that’s one huge exception), Warner has been incredibly reliable, and while you’re always holding your breath when he gets hit, you have to love this matchup. Larry Fitzgerald? Yes please! Anquan Boldin? Don’t mind if I do! Steve Breaston? Go for it! Early Doucet? Just kidding. Go back to the bench, Early. It’s an added bonus if the Rams offense looks as frisky as it did last week against the Saints so the Cardinals keep throwing right to the end.

ARI: Warner +2, Fitzgerald +2, Boldin +2, Breaston +2

Apparently they’ll let just about anybody try to knock off the Saints these days. I know the Cards are ranked 30th in pass defense, but I’m not convinced their secondary is quite as rough as the injury-depleted Saints unit was last week. Still, if you need a stopgap measure, this isn’t a terrible matchup for Bulger and Avery (just remember what we’ve said about managing risk in regards to playing weekly matchups over proven starters). Brandon Gibson played great in place of Keenan Burton (out for the season), but before you consider starting him, just remember that for most of the year there was barely enough pass offense to make Donnie Avery startable.

STL: Bulger +1, Avery +1, Gibson 0

Cincinnati (21st) @ Oakland (14th)

I was right on the money in predicting 180 yards for Palmer last week (though I did figure on a touchdown which he didn’t get) — not great, but completing 60% and not tossing a pick against Pittsburgh is pretty good too. Oakland’s pass defense isn’t as good as their rating; it’s at least partially a product of teams preferring to run on the terrible Raiders run defense, and avoiding Asomugha. The Bengals won’t want to run too much with Benson and risk overworking Bernard Scott, so I’m expecting a nice day from Palmer. Asomugha may suppress Ochocinco’s totals just a bit but he’s still worth playing. Coles has stepped nicely into the #2 role (finally) and is a strong WR2 play here. The Bengals released Ben Utecht, for any of you playing in 5-TE leagues.

CIN: Palmer +1, Ochocinco 0, Coles +1

Russell got benched (again), and the QB who replaced him was arguably worse (at least Russell hadn’t turned the ball over yet). Gradkowski is only marginally interesting, in that he may be able to get the ball more consistently to Zach Miller. Emphasis on “may”. This is a bad situation and it’s not getting any better — treat it like the Raiders all have the H1N1 virus (actually, that would explain a lot).

OAK: Gradkowski -2, Miller -2, Are you really going to make me list the Oakland WR’s?

San Diego (11th) @ Denver (5th)

Rivers was excellent against the Eagles blitz attack, hitting 80% completion and getting sacked just twice. Weirdly, he did it while all but ignoring Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates was the beneficiary and he may be in line for another nice game if Denver can bring pressure on Rivers. Jackson is still too dominant physically to bench but Champ Bailey is as smart as they come so be prepared for another subpar game from V-Jax (hopefully better than last week, anyway). Floyd has yet to put together a game that will make him worth starting in most leagues, and Naanee’s involvement may keep Floyd’s value from increasing much.

SD: Rivers 0, Jackson -1, Floyd 0, Naanee 0, Gates +1

Orton’s status is the issue here. As of Wednesday he was not practicing (Simms was taking first team snaps) but said he intended to play if possible. While it probably won’t be as bad as Simms getting tossed into the middle of a game, you have to figure that whether it’s Orton or Simms, the Denver pass offense is going to suffer. Brandon Marshall is still playable as a WR2 here, but I am a little afraid of the situation and would definitely avoid playing Royal. If you’re desperate, an argument can be made for playing Scheffler as the Chargers have a history of giving up big plays to TE’s.

DEN: Orton/Simms -2, Marshall -1, Royal -2, Scheffler 0

New York Jets (3rd) @ New England (7th)

The Patriots lost the first Jets game, they lost last week to Indy, and all their defense has been hearing on ESPN is how their coach doesn’t trust them. Think they’ll be a little motivated? I do not like this matchup at all for Sanchez, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish with fewer than 200 yards and a couple picks. Cotchery is ok here but I’m not sure you want to bank on a big play from Braylon Edwards to salvage his day. Dustin Keller is getting more and more involved, but NE has a habit of shutting down TE’s so this may not be the week to rely on him.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1

This is not the same Pats offense that couldn’t crack 300 total yards against the Jets in Week 2. New York’s secondary is good (we all know about Revis by now), but other than possibly a yardage hit to Moss, don’t downgrade your Patriot starters much if any. At this point, beyond Moss and Welker, the ball is spread around too much for fantasy relevance. Ben Watson remains a marginal fantasy TE.

NE: Brady 0, Moss -1, Welker 0, Watson 0

8 PM game

Philadelpha (10th) @ Chicago (8th)

The best case for any commitment to the rush in Philly would be a healthy Westbrook and McCoy, splitting carries in order to keep both of them fresh. As it is, with Westbrook still out (and out for the forseeable future), Andy Reid has no qualms about throwing the ball on nearly every down and every situation. This will result in the occasional turnover, but you can’t argue with the yardage. DeSean Jackson actually turned in a normal WR line (8 catches, 91 yards), Maclin remains a nice #2 WR, and Avant stole the show with 156 receiving yards. Avant’s still a clear #3 in that offense though, and probably the 4th option when you include Celek. Chicago “shut down” the 49ers pass offense — big whoop. Play your Eagles here, ignore the 8th place ranking.

PHI: McNabb +1, Jackson +1, Maclin 0, Avant 0, Celek +1

I’m pretty curious about this matchup. I know that Cutler wasn’t responsible for all 5 of his interceptions last week, but it’s not as if he’s known for having the poise of Philip Rivers, and the Eagles will definitely sell out to put pressure on him. Cutler’s success is going to rest heavily on the play of the offensive line and the blitz pickup by the RB’s and TE’s. But if the Eagles get in his face, you know he’s willing to take the risky shots downfield that result in turnovers. Forte and Olsen may end up with a good bit of receiving yardage again if the Bears use the screen and dumpoff to combat the Eagles blitz.

CHI: Cutler -1, Hester -1, Bennett -1, Knox -2, Olsen 0

Monday game

Tennessee (31st) @ Houston (17th)

Can it be said that the Tennessee passing game was effective last week? Does dumping it off to Chris Johnson and letting him run through the defense count? CJ caught 9 balls; nobody else caught more than 2. Houston’s defense is a little more balanced that Buffalo’s, so you’ll likely see some more passes to the WR’s, but other than deep, TD-heavy leagues, I don’t see a lot of value in Nate Washington or Kenny Britt the rest of the year. There will be big pass plays occasionally as defenses sell out against the run, but not frequently enough to count on.

TEN: Young 0, Washington 0, Britt -1, Scaife 0

This ought to be a nice return to action for the Texans after their bye. Andre Johnson should shred the Titans secondary, Kevin Walter is a strong WR2 play especially in PPR leagues, and Jacoby Jones is worth a look in deep leagues or return yardage leagues. Dreessen caught a couple balls in Week 9 but it’s clear they aren’t going to try to make him something he isn’t (namely, Owen Daniels).

HOU: Schaub +2, Johnson +2, Walter +2, Jones +1

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I’m fresh out of risk management parables and parlor game analogies this week, so I’m going to indulge myself by just skipping to the good stuff.

Let’s recap how the system works here: start with your basic ranking of players, and then consider -1 and +1 ratings to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier. A -2 and +2 rating bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. The team’s pass defense ranking (in passing yards allowed per game) is in parentheses.

Thursday game

Chicago (12th) @ San Francisco (24th)

Just when Cutler was reaching the point where owners were playing QB2’s over him, he slices up the Cardinals for 369 yards and 3 TD’s. Feel comfortable starting him this week? I wouldn’t, even against the 49er’s 24th ranked secondary. If you’re stuck with him, be thankful for the big games, but with most leagues about to reach the trade deadline, I’d be looking for the Bears fan in your league to sell Cutler as high as possible after last week. Still, on a roll is better than spiraling downward, and SF does give up yards, so a mild upgrade here. Olsen caught all three touchdowns last week…I hate to invoke the overplayed “chemistry” thing-ness (don’t most good quarterbacks throw to whoever isn’t being covered?), but at least we have confirmation that Cutler knows he’s allowed to throw to Olsen in the red zone. San Fran seems softer over the top than in the middle, so I see a bigger game for Hester (who is consistently putting up WR1 catches and yardage – but not touchdowns) and Bennett than Olsen. Knox is sliding out of the picture which means we’re due for Knox and Bennett to swap places and confuse things all over again.

CHI: Cutler +1, Hester +1, Bennett +1, Knox 0, Olsen 0

Alex Smith is doing a credible Sage Rosenfels impression, which isn’t bad (other than Rosenfels being drafted roughly 100 picks later). More importantly, Smith’s mistakes don’t hurt the other 49er’s as long as he puts up yardage and touchdowns. Vernon Davis is a must start – if he’s your TE2, stop reading and go trade your TE1 now. The Bears rank pretty highly in pass defense but they’ve been exploited (most notably by the Bengals). Crabtree’s still the only WR you want to be playing right now. Bruce is done, Morgan’s unreliable, and there’s probably a reason nobody had heard of Jason Hill before last week. Click the flag, not the cross, and let someone else waste their waiver priority on Hill. (One game down and we’ve already had a Sage Rosenfels reference and Yahoo! league specific advice!)

SF: Smith 0, Crabtree 0, Morgan -1, Hill 0, Davis +1, Bruce is toast

Sunday 1 PM games

New Orleans (16th) @ St. Louis (23rd)

And broadcast football for the poor folks starts out with an ugly one. Start Brees, Colston, and Shockey no matter what. I don’t know what the ceiling for Brees is in this game but I’m thinking it’ll involve sustainable cold fusion and a smarter grid. Then, flip a coin for Henderson or Meachem — Henderson’s a little safer, but Meachem has a knack for busting a big play. Whither Lance Moore? I don’t know, but I hope it’s not your starting roster. If you ask me to rank Lance Moore in a PPR league, I’m going to rank him last from now on, even if the other options include Rae Carruth and Peter Warrick.

NO: Brees +2, Colston +2, Shockey +2, Henderson +1, Meachem +1, Moore -1

Encouraged by that mid-pack rating for the Saints pass defense? That yardage against is coming in 37.1 attempts per game — only Pittsburgh is allowing fewer yards in as many attempts. The fact that teams go pass-crazy trying to keep up with the Saints offense is not a good thing. This is where you back away from the Rams and stop trying to squeeze the last bit of fantasy value out of Bulger and Avery. They couldn’t come through against the Lions…don’t you need to see at least a couple good games before you try them again?

STL: Bulger -1, Avery -1

Cincinnati (25th) @ Pittsburgh (14th)

Tough call here — Palmer and Ochocinco are too…well…too competent to bench, but I think Palmer at least needs to be downgraded a bit. I actually think he may have a nice game, but it could closer to 180 yards and a TD than the 300 yard, 3 TD line you’re hoping for. Coles seems to be find his spot in the offense (and Chris Henry won’t be poaching looks anymore) — I don’t like him in this game but he’s worth flier for the upcoming weeks. Caldwell managed to sneak another TD to salvage his day, but I wouldn’t want to bank on it every week.

CIN: Palmer -1, Ochocinco 0, Coles -1, Caldwell -1, Henry ixnay on the easonsay

The Pittsburgh offense shifted emphasis to the rushing attack against Denver (or, at least, evened things out a little) and Roethlisberger still managed to rack up 233 yards and 3 touchdowns. Holmes nearly cracked 100 yards (but didn’t!), Ward all but did handsprings into the endzone, and Mike Wallace turned his standard 2-4 catches into 69 yards and a touchdown (insert requisite Morley Safer joke). Heath Miller was the only real disappointment in the bunch, but he’s a TE and his name isn’t Antonio Gates so who cares? Love them all here. Leon Hall is good but can’t handle Santonio Holmes, and everyone else will have a great time.

PIT: Roethlisberger +1, Holmes +1, Ward +1, Wallace +1, Miller +1

Jacksonville (26th) @ New York Jets (2nd)

How ’bout that Mike Thomas! I was surprised to see how much attention was being paid to him…hope you followed my lead and ignored him. This happens. Teams gameplan around shutting down the biggest threat and occasionally some random 4th or 5th WR will benefit. Don’t chase the big game after it’s already happened — you’ve already missed most of the fantasy value Mike Thomas will have for 2009. Garrard and Sims-Walker asserted their personality against the Chiefs, but I expect Revis to shut that down. The Jags pass offense is marginal and this isn’t the matchup you want.

JAC: Garrard -2, Sims-Walker -1, Holt -2, Lewis -2

I haven’t been as high on Sanchez as a lot of people but I do like this matchup. Sanchez looked very good against a comparably bad Miami secondary. The bye week shoudl have given Cotchery the chance to heal up and Braylon the opportunity to develop a little more timing and familiarity with Sanchez. I’m giving Sanchez a +2 here but remember I’m not so excited about him as a fantasy QB this year — you should still be playing your QB1’s over him. Clowney’s probably out of the picture until further notice.

NYJ: Sanchez +2, Cotchery +2, Braylon +2, Keller +2, Clowney 0

Detroit (31st) @ Minnesota (21st)

How often do you see 2 tight ends on the same team lead in receptions and receiving yards? Pettigrew and FitzSimmons (with his jaunty capital S) managed to do just that. Maybe it had something to do with Stafford being worried about throwing it to the other team? Or perhaps he felt Calvin Johnson was listening but not really hearing him. In any case, this bears watching. Mostly for Megatron owners trying to figure out what’s going on, but also just for the novelty of having 2 fantasy relevant tight ends on same team. The Vikings secondary isn’t great, but expect a ton of pressure on Stafford from Jared Allen. Calvin Johnson and Pettigrew are playable; ignore the rest.

DET: Stafford -1, Calvin Johnson 0, Pettigrew 0, Bryant Johnson -1, Northcutt -1, FitzSimmons (watch him just for kicks)

The first time around against Detroit, Favre completed 85% of his passes and tossed a couple TD’s. This was before he started slinging it downfield, however. He totaled 155 yards passing in Week 2 against the Lions — he might double that total this time around. After some premature Sidney Rice ass-crowning, Harvin and Berrian have retaken some ground in the offense. None of them are WR1’s but Rice and Harvin are excellent WR2’s (and Berrian may get there shortly). Shiancoe has 6 TD’s in 8 games — I don’t know what kind of deal he and Favre made but ride it as long as possible.

MIN: Favre +2, Harvin +2, Rice +2, Berrian +2, Shiancoe +2

Tampa Bay (15th) @ Miami (28th)

I’d like to start this section with a moment of silence for the “Joshes” joke — it doesn’t look like Josh Johnson is likely to get another shot at QB in the near future. 3 TD’s against the Packers was unexpected, but lost in the jubilation is the fact that Freeman completed fewer than half his passes and just cracked 200 yards in 31 attempts. Moreover, half of his completions were to TE or RB position. This could be a good sign for Winslow, but with Antonio Bryant’s knee acting up, there isn’t much value in the Bucs receiving core. Stroughter is interesting, but don’t get cute trying to chase production from him this week until we see if Freeman can get the ball downfield.

TB: Freeman 0, Winslow +1, Bryant -1, Stroughter 0

Henne was surprisingly competent against the Patriots. He threw 34 times without getting picked off for nearly 220 yards, but the only passing TD was stolen by Wild Ronnie Brown. Both Bess and Camarillo had decent if unexciting days. Unfortunately, despite all the talk from reporters and assistant coaches that Bess is Henne’s “security blanket” and Camarillo is “primed for a big second half”, the numbers just aren’t there on a weekly basis. Bess is playable-ish in deeper PPR leagues. That said, TB’s defense isn’t as good as the rating, so if you’re stuck, this isn’t a terrible matchup. Look for 200 yards and a TD from Henne, and 50-70 yards for Bess and Camarillo.

MIA: Henne +1, Bess +1, Camarillo +1, Hartline 0, Ginn 0, Fasano 0

Denver (7th) @ Washington (1st)

Pittsburgh made Kyle Orton look like evil Jay Cutler (or, well, Kyle Orton before this year). Orton’s prone to these kind of games occasionally, since neither his arm nor the Denver offense is built for forcing the ball downfield. He still managed 221 yards (and the last INT was clearly a product of one last gasp at scoring). On the upside, Eddie Royal was targeted early and often — he wasn’t as efficient as as Marshall as converting the looks into catches, but it’s still a good sign. Daniel Graham outproduced Scheffler, which means you don’t want either. I don’t expect Washington to force as many mistakes as Pittsburgh did, but this is still a tougher matchup.

DEN: Orton -1, Marshall 0, Royal -1, Scheffler -1

Descriptions of Ben Roethlisberger which also apply to Jason Campbell: human, 4 limbs, wears a helmet to work. Descriptions of Roethlisberger that do not apply to Campbell : has earned the trust of his employer, can succeed against the Broncos defense. Besides getting kicked around by Atlanta (and briefly pulled), Campbell doesn’t have the weapons or the ability of Roethlisberger, and I expect the Denver defense to be highly motivated. Downgrade Fred Davis from “possible Chris Cooley stand in” to “scrap heap TE schmohawk”. Santana Moss is the only semi-reliable receiver, and I wouldn’t be looking for much here.

WAS: Campbell -2, Moss -1, Davis -2

Atlanta (27th) @ Carolina (6th)

And Ryan’s terrible schedule continues. If you are already past your trade deadline, it’s time to start looking at other options, even if it means playing the waiver wire rotation. Even if he plays well, I think it’s going to look more like 160 yards and TD (even if you’d rather take the “bad” 250 yard, 2 TD, 2 INT kind of game). Gonzalez seems to be able to get his looks even in the limited passing opportunities, but this may cut into Roddy White’s production going forward as well, making him more like a WR2 with upside than a true WR1 for the rest of the year. Any chance Jenkins had of developing fantasy value is gone.

ATL: Ryan -1, White -1, Gonzalez 0

After Carolina put the clamps down on Delhomme the previous week, it was a good sign to see him throw it 30 times. Unfortunately, this only netted 201 yards, and no touchdowns. With the way DeAngelo Williams is rolling right now, there isn’t much need for the Panthers to take any chances with the passing game. Hopefully, you’re not relying on Delhomme anyway, but more critical is the fact that Steve Smith’s production will be limited as well. Smith still has the talent to put up good numbers against a weak ATL secondary given his ability to gain yards after the catch, but he’s basically the only fantasy worth starter on the Panthers. Unless Rosario suddenly re-enters the offensive picture, I’m going to be leaving him off the report from now on.

CAR: Delhomme 0, Smith +1

Buffalo (10th) @ Tennessee (32nd)

The Titans are quickly improving, but they still gave up 286 yards and 2 TD’s to Alex Smith. Unfortunately, change is (again) afoot in Buffalo, with Trent Edwards ready to resume his starting role. Playing Lee Evans and Terrell Owens as WR2’s isn’t a bad idea, but if you have safer receivers, I’d wait to see how Edwards’ return affects things. You might miss a nice game here, but it’s not worth the risk unless you’re out of options.

BUF: Edwards 0, Evans 0, Owens 0

Blech. Justin Gage put up a nice 97 yard total last week, but if you take away that 49 yard completion, the whole Titans pass offense looks pretty weak. And if you had to, would you bet for or against Vince Young making that throw on a weekly basis? Buffalo is so bad against the run and good enough against the pass that I don’t see Jeff Fisher letting Young take too many chances. Avoid, avoid, avoid. And cross your fingers that one of the Titans receivers steps forward as a clear red zone option, because I think that’s about as much value as can be hoped for.

TEN: Young -1, Gage -1, Washington -1, Scaife 0

4 PM games

Kansas City (30th) @ Oakland (13th)

Matt Cassel is really weird. Three times this season he’s passed for 240+ yards. Four times he’s passed for 2 TD’s. Sounds great, right? Wait for it. Three times he’s passed for fewer than 130 yards. Weirder still, in those less-than-130 yard games, he had two of his 2 TD games. What’s it all mean? Just that he’s one of the most up and down QB’s in the league. So far, except for one boring 186 yard, no TD, no INT game, he’s managed to either log decent yardage or decent TD’s in each game (and occasionally both yardage and TD’s). This is why you have to look at the games. If you check his fantasy numbers per game, they aren’t half bad. But when you start him against anything but the worst pass defenses, you risk eating a low yardage, no TD game. In other words, don’t. Chris Chambers is an interesting addition (well, at least it’ll be interesting to see how long he lasts in KC). I’m not convinced Chambers will have continued fantasy relevance, but I do think it can’t hurt Dwayne Bowe. More interesting to me is that Lance Long (hey-o!) was targeted more than Bowe or Chambers. Watch closely to see if the slot receiver’s production was a result of the defensive matchup or an ongoing trend. He may get more looks this week if Asomugha stays on Bowe most of the game.

KC: Cassel -1, Bowe 0, Chambers 0, Long +1

Yeah, I know, KC’s terrible on defense. If you ask me about starting any Raider other than Zach Miller, I’m still telling you no. It is a nice matchup for Miller, though, so take advantage. By the way, I will be copying and pasting this “analysis” for Oakland for the rest of the year and just changing the name of the opponent.

OAK: Russell 0, Miller +2

Philadelphia (11th) @ San Diego (5th)

Expected a little more from McNabb against Dallas, didn’t you? Especially after he torched the much more highly ranked Giants defense the week before, right? This is why defensive trends are as important as the overall performance — the Cowboys and Giants defense were headed in opposite directions. If you hear advice to start someone against the “weak Cowboys secondary”, take a moment and rethink it. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that while San Diego is limiting passing yards, they did let Eli complete 75% of his passes last week along with a couple TD’s and no picks. Don’t worry too much about McNabb here. More troubling is that yet again the Eagles could not get Jackson involved. He’s a must start in most formats, but keep your fingers crossed for that big play. Celek has a nice matchup here with the Chargers’ weakness over the middle. Avant seems to make one amazing catch per game but not much besides.

PHI: McNabb 0, Jackson 0, Maclin 0, Celek +1

Philip Rivers had what was probably his worst game last week, with just 209 yards and 2 INT’s….and he still managed to sneak in 3 TD’s before his day was over. Tomlinson’s inability to grind tough yards along with V-Jax’s excellent route-running and jump ball ability are creating the perfect redzone storm for Rivers. I don’t care what matchup your QB2 has, you play Rivers. If the Eagles’ blitz gets the pressure to Rivers, look for more dump-offs to Gates and Sproles. Floyd didn’t do much last week but he bears watching just for the potential. The Eagles have been burned by TE’s over and over again (which may be a product of the heavy blitzing), so expect a big day from Gates.

SD: Rivers 0, Jackson 0, Floyd 0, Gates +2

Dallas (20th) @ Green Bay (8th)

As mentioned above, while Tampa did stick 38 points up against the Packers, they still held Freeman under 50% completion rate and just over 200 yards (and picked off a pass for good measure). Take away the 2 defensive touchdowns and the Packers D gave up 24 points — that’s still not great against a bad Tampa team, but it looks a lot better than 38. You can’t downgrade the Cowboys too much here, but keep in mind that teams are already gameplanning to shut down Miles Austin and Witten. Roy Williams and Crayton benefit from this shift in defensive attention, but don’t get crazy.

DAL: Romo -1, Austin 0, Williams 0, Crayton, Witten 0

Even with 3 picks against Tampa, Rodgers put together a decent fantasy day with 266 yards and a couple TD’s. I’m a little worried about the offensive line play against Dallas, as we’ve seen Rodgers take a ton of punishment. Driver had his usual, and while you’d prefer to see Jennings get in the end zone, at least Rodgers is getting the ball to him. James Jones broke out with 100+ yards, but just remember he’s going to be a boom or bust play as the third WR. Finley may be nearing his return so don’t play any of the TE’s for the time being.

GB: Rodgers +1, Jennings 0, Driver +1, Jones 0, Lee/Finley -1

Seattle (17th) @ Arizona (29th)

With Julius Jones unable to find running room against Detroit (yikes), Seattle proved they weren’t scared to open things up with Hasselbeck throwing 51 times for 329 yards (but sadly just a single TD). Arizona is a little better than Detroit defensively (but not as much as you might think). I expect Hasselbeck to split the difference between last week’s numbers and his first shot at Arizona in Week 6, a 10-29, 112 yard abomination. Houshmandzadeh snared the only passing TD against Detroit but Burleson remains the leader in receiving leader in looks and yardage. Keep an eye on Hasselbeck’s sore shoulder.

SEA: Hasselbeck 0, Burleson +1, Houshmandzadeh 0, Carlson 0

Two weeks ago Warner threw 5 picks! Then last week he threw 5 TD’s! Also last week Seattle intercepted Stafford 5 times! What’s it all mean?! Not much, actually, other than what we already know — that Warner throws a lot, and will continue to throw even when he’s having a bad day, that he’s capable of putting up monster numbers when he’s not having a bad day (and he’s not Stafford), and that Seattle’s defense is a little schizophrenic. Warner’s a must start, but the big question is Boldin’s health. Given that Boldin thought he would be starting, it’s likely that Boldin will be back this week at (nearly) full strength. Great for Boldin owners, bad for Breaston owners.

ARI: Warner 0, Fitzgerald 0, Boldin +1, Breaston -1

Sunday night game

New England (4th) @ Indianapolis (9th)

The Colts tend to cover over the top and softer underneath, so I have a feeling we may not see Randy Moss bust a long TD like last week, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. Welker will run slants and Moss will run short routes, and they’ll just get their yardage in smaller chunks. Ben Watson looked like a normal TE last week, netting 49 yards but failing to get his usual sneaky TD. Go figure. If he gets some looks again this week, he may be moving to the top of the waiver fodder tier.

NE: Brady 0, Moss 0, Welker +1, Watson 0

Do you think that the #4 pass defense ranking the Pats have racked up against the likes of the Bills, the Jets, the Titans, and the Bucs is going to seriously impede the Colts offense? Dallas Clark (who went apeshit in the first quarter last week), Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon owners can secretly rejoice over Anthony Gonzalez’s latest setback with his knee — it’s looking less and and less like he’ll be any factor at all this year. Garcon outproduced Collie last week but I still think Collie’s the safer bet going forward. I’m not convinced Shawn Springs or Leigh Bodden can handle Reggie Wayne so I expect to see him double covered frequently.

IND: Manning 0, Wayne 0, Clark +1, Collie 0, Garcon 0

Monday night game

Baltimore (19th) @ Cleveland (22nd)

Flacco had a tough day against the Cincy defense which is actually ranked a little worse than Clevelands. Numbers lie. The Browns secondary is much worse than the Bengals secondary — teams just don’t throw on them quite as much since it’s too easy to just run right at them. This should be a nice, comfy matchup for Flacco to get back on track. Look for nice totals from Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. Since Ray Rice gets targeted so much, there isn’t a lot of value in the Ravens receivers beyond that.

BAL: Flacco +2, Mason +2, Heap +1

Baltimore’s defense is a little like the Cowboys — after getting torched early, they’ve been steadily improving. Don’t assume that they are easy pickins. Moreover, we’ve got a serious case of buyer’s remorse with the Browns coaching staff and Derek Anderson, so we’re going back to Brady Quinn. Would you rather the Cleveland receivers be worthless because their quarterback isn’t accurate enough to get the ball near them, or because their quarterback is scared of throwing the ball more than 10 yards downfield? Those are your options.

CLE: Quinn -2, Massaquoi -2, Cribbs 0 (return yardage leagues)

Be sure to have your lineup ready for the Thursday night game, and check back for updated injury news!

As I flipped back and forth between MNF and the World Series (and thought over my fantasy baseball and fantasy football seasons), I couldn’t help but compile a mental fantasy baseball vs. fantasy football monologue in my head. Most of it probably only made sense to me in that moment, but through it I realized that the same reasons that people give for fantasy football being easier than fantasy baseball are also the same reasons it can be harder. The player pool is smaller, the scoring is simpler, and it doesn’t require researching 3 levels of minor leagues to have an edge when the latest prospect gets called up. This makes things easier for you. But it also means it’s harder for you to gain an advantage by simply outworking your opponents. The “experts” are all analyzing the same players and dealing with the same random nature of football, meaning most of them will give you the same advice, and when someone does go out on a limb and get it right, it’s usually too late to take advantage of it (how many of you had already picked up Ryan Moats when Drew mentioned him weeks ago?).

The point is this: the information, to a certain degree, is limited. We’re all getting better at figuring out what information is pertinent and what isn’t, but at a certain point football can’t be broken down like baseball can. It’s not played in discrete chunks, player vs. player, that are easily represented by statistics. So the advantage to be had is in filtering out the noise and when you take risks, you take the best calculated risk the situation allows. Risk assessment. Fantasy baseball is like chess — fantasy football is like poker. You may be more skilled than your opponent and still lose. We want to provide the information that gives you the best understanding of the risks.

Let’s recap how the system works here: start with your basic ranking of players, and then consider -1 and +1 ratings to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier. A -2 and +2 rating bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. The team’s pass defense ranking (in passing yards allowed per game) is in parentheses.

1 PM games

Washington (2nd) @ Atlanta (31st)

The Redskins offense had a surprisingly effective pass attack against the Eagles in Week 7. Jason Campbell had a solid fantasy line (284 yards, 2 TD’s) and even managed to get the ball 6 times to Santana Moss. Campbell should still be considered a highly risky play even against a relatively poor secondary like Atlanta’s (of course, lots of secondaries look bad after a game against the Saints). He’s just as likely to get the hook at halftime as he is throw for 250+ yards. Of particular note is the loss of Chris Cooley. If you need a TE and Fred Davis wasn’t picked up because of the bye week, grab him now. Davis and Cooley combined for 10 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown — most of it by Davis after Cooley went down. That total is a little optimistic, but Davis has the situation and talent to put up excellent numbers.

WAS: Campbell 0, Moss +1, Davis +1

SSDD. Things don’t get any easier for Matty Ice(cold) this week. The Washington defense is legit, particularly its secondary. The Redskins held Celek to 3 catches for 8 yards, so don’t expect a monster day from Tony Gonzalez, but he’s still a must play on most rosters. DeSean Jackson’s big plays against might give hope to Roddy White owners, but they get their big gains in different ways so I’m not sure White will be as successful. Jenkins continues to produce just enough to tease but not enough to warrant a pickup.

ATL: Ryan -2, White -1, Gonzalez -1

Green Bay (9th) @ Tampa Bay (15th)

The issue with Greg Jennings this year seemed to be pass protection (or lack thereof). With Rodgers constantly under pressure, the offense didn’t have the time necessary to set up downfield pass plays, instead relying on over the middle shots to Driver and the TE’s. Well, Rodgers was sacked 6 times by the Vikings defense, and he still managed to find Jennings 8 times for 88 yards and a score. Is Jennings back? I’m not sure he won’t turn in a few more stinkers, but he is definitely playable — the Packers are finding ways to get him the ball. If you’re looking for a long shot TE, check out Spencer Havner — he only caught 2 passes, but both were for touchdowns. Clearly, the red zone offense is set up for some TE targets, so take advantage. Tampa’s not even as good as their mid-pack ranking (and don’t rush the passer nearly as well as the Vikings), so start all your Packers with confidence.

GB: Rodgers +2, Jennings +2, Driver +2, Havner +2

Meh. The Bucs’ pass offense isn’t even bad in an exciting way, like the Raiders — they are boringly bad. The dullest quarterback controversy in the history of the NFL sucks almost all of the value out of this offense. Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow are talented receivers, but you are rolling the dice if you start them. Both could just as easily turn in 2 catch, 18 yard days as they could bust 100+ yards and score a couple times. Use only if you are in a bad, bad way and need all the high-risk you can fit on a roster.

TB: Joshes -2, Bryant -1, Winslow -1

Miami (12th) @ New England (5th)

I’m not sure the Patriots secondary is nearly so good as that number may indicate — they have had the good fortune of facing the Titans and Bucs offenses the previous 2 games. Of course, Miami’s pass offense might be closer to those 2 teams than they are to the units that had success like the Broncos. The Dolphins mustered just 112 yards passing last week against the Jets (and lost 60 in sack yardage). I don’t like young quarterbacks facing the Patriots (even Sanchize only threw for 163 yards and a single touchdown) — this is not the week to take a risk with Henne and the Dolphins. They just don’t throw enough to make Bess, Camarillo, Fasano, the newly promoted Hartline (goose-egg), or the newly demoted Ginn (goose egg in the passing game) worthwhile.

MIA: Henne -2, Bess -1, Camarillo -2, Fasano-2, Hartline -2, Ginn -2

This isn’t quite the creampuff matchup that the Patriots enjoyed against the Titans and Bucs, but the same principle stands — New England doesn’t have the RB depth to pound the ball, so expect 30+ passes from Brady. Welker will again be used to move the chains with occasional downfield shots to Moss. Aiken bears watching after catching a long TD in Week 7. Normally Ben Watson doesn’t get enough looks for my liking, but this is a nice matchup for him, and he often sneaks a red zone TD even when he’s not being targeted frequently.

NE: Brady +1, Welker +2, Moss +1, Watson +1, Aikin 0

Kansas City (28th) @ Jacksonville (26th)

Cassel was horrible against San Diego before the bye week, but if you’re stuck with waiver options at QB I think he’s playable here. Bowe salvaged his 11 yard day by recording a touchdown, while Bobby Wade racked up 66 yards, but Bowe’s the only one you want to be playing. If you’re stuck with Bowe on your roster, this is the week you play him — and if you can’t play him here, then go ahead and sell low on him, because the situation just isn’t going to get a lot better.

KC: Cassel +1, Bowe +2, Wade +1

What a mess. After Garrard threw 2 picks and barely completed 50% of his passes (meanwhile, MJD averaged 22 yards a carry but was only given the ball 8 times) against the Titans, the scuttlebutt is that Garrard’s decision-making is under question (oh really?) and that he may be “handcuffed” to avoid costly mistakes (you don’t say!). Garrard was already an up-and-down fantasy QB, so this may not change his value that much, but it could have devastating consequences for Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt. For now, cross your fingers and hope that Garrard regains the coaching staff’s trust in a tasty matchup against the Chiefs, but be prepared to sell just a little low on Sims-Walker and Holt if it’s apparent they aren’t getting the downfield targets.

JAC: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker -1, Holt -1, Thomas -1, Lewis 0

Houston (14th) @ Indianapolis (7th)

If I told you that a talented Houston player would rank at the top of his fantasy position for 8 weeks before being lost to injury, you’d have guessed Matt Schaub, right? Oh wait…I guess you could also guess Andre Johnson. Maybe Houston needs a better sports medicine department. Anyway, Owen Daniels is lost for the year, and that means potentially big value changes for 2 players. Kevin Walter goes from being the 3rd wheel to Andre Johnson’s sidekick, and Joel Dreessen gets the opportunity to fill in for Daniels. For now, assume most of that extra value goes to Walter, but keep an eye on Dreessen — a lot of the Texans’ playbook revolved around Daniels so I think he’ll get some looks. For now, Schaub’s value dips just a little, and Andre Johnson’s holds steady. Oh yeah. They’re playing Indy, who is really, really, really good at suppressing long pass plays. Did I mention Kevin Walter’s value is going up?

HOU: Schaub -1, Johnson -1, Walter +1, Jones -1, Dreessen +1, Daniels (drop)

Following our quiz motif for this game, if I told you a Colt passer had a perfect QB rating in last week’s game, would you guess…Manning? Sorgi? Whoever is the 3rd string QB? Nope, it’s Joseph Addai! The Colts had a tough time scoring against the 49ers, but that didn’t stop Manning from racking up 347 yards. Pray to the fantasy football gods that a RB doesn’t steal a passing touchdown this week. In other news, Reggie Wayne is the first WR to be targeted 20 times in a game. Until Anthony Gonzalez returns in full health, Wayne is the big play guy and the clutch 3rd-down guy, all wrapped into one. With Owen Daniels down for the count, Dallas Clark is now clearly the best fantasy TE in the game. Gonzalez isn’t expected back this week, so Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are playable as well.

IND: Manning 0, Wayne +1, Clark 0, Collie 0, Garcon 0

Baltimore (19th) @ Cincinnati (30th)

The difference between fantasy and real football can be seen in Flacco’s last game against Denver. 175 yards and a single touchdown is barely acceptable in fantasy; in real life, he completed 80% of his passes, didn’t turn it over, and got what yardage was available from a tough Broncos D. That doesn’t help you if you started him, but it’s a good sign — even against tough opponents, he’s not likely to implode. Fortunately, that’s not a concern this week. Now that the Bengals are the 3rd worst team in passing yardage against, can we stop talking about their surprising defense? Expect Mason to top the receiving yardage again; neither Mark Clayton nor Kelley Washington are productive enough to consider playing. Heap remains a low-risk, low-reward option.

BAL: Flacco +2, Mason +2, Clayton +1, Washington +1, Heap +1

The question here is this: does one look at Baltimore’s ranking and year-to-date statistics, or does one look at the last game against a previously successful Denver offense? The Ravens used more blitzes and defensive shifts to pressure Orton instead of letting the front four go at it and hoping the secondary holds up. The smart play here is to assume that the Ravens aren’t quite the easy mark they were early in the year, but Palmer and Ochocinco are too talented to downgrade much. Unfortunately, after some nice early games, Andre Caldwell seems to have fallen back to the pack — Caldwell, Coles, and Henry are converging in value, making none of them more than spot WR3 starts.

CIN: Palmer 0, Ochocinco 0, Caldwell -1, Coles 0, Henry 0

Arizona (20th) @ Chicago (12th)

Are the Bears the team that held the Browns to 74 yards passing or the team that gave up 5 TD’s to Carson Palmer? Probably somewhere in the middle, but I wouldn’t be worried about starting your Cardinals in this game. Anquan Boldin aggravated his sprained ankle last week; even if he plays, I’d upgrade Steve Breaston just because he’s likely to be involved more than usual. If Boldin does play, keep him in your lineup — he can be productive even when hobbled.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston +1

Starting to worry about Jay Cutler as your starting QB? You should be (this applies to Bears fans and Cutler owners alike). The Browns are not a good pass defense, and Cutler managed just 225 yards with no TD’s and a pick against them. After leaving the Detroit game with an injury, Hester has logged 3 straight games of 80+ yards — but he also missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. If Hester can’t play, upgrade Knox. Bennett seems to have been pushed to WR3 status. At this point, accept the fact that Olsen is a steady but unexciting TE.

CHI: Cutler -1, Hester 0, Knox 0/+1, Bennett 0, Olsen 0

4 PM games

Detroit (27th) @ Seattle (18th)

Stafford couldn’t put together a good game against St. Louis. You don’t want to play him here. For the sake of argument, if Calvin Johnson plays, Stafford gets a little upgrade, but it’s not enough to start him. CJ looked good in Wednesday’s practice but remains a game-time decision. Play him if he starts, but not over other top-tier WR’s. Pettigrew has yet to put together a second game so ignore him for now. Northcutt led in looks last week but Bryant Johnson made the plays. Don’t start either.

DET: Stafford -1, Calvin Johnson 0, Pettigrew -1, Northcutt -1, Bryant Johnson 0

I really thought that Dallas would put more pressure on Hasselbeck, but the Seahawks put together a nice game against the Cowboys. Clearly, this is a much better matchup and Hasselbeck, Burleson, Houshmandzadeh, and Carlson are all playable here. If you are considering starting Hasselbeck over a top-tier starter with a tougher matchup, remember that everything you’re reading about Hasselbeck is the same stuff people said about Bulger last week. It’s not a perfect parallel, since Hasselbeck has more experienced and talented receivers, but take it as fair warning. Burleson is returning punts which is a nice boost for return yardage leagues.

SEA: Hasselbeck +2, Burleson +2, Houshmandzadeh +1, Carlson +1

Carolina (1st) @ New Orleans (17th)

If the Panthers stick to their new gameplan, they’ll probably win more, but it’s going to cut into Delhomme’s production (and by extension, Steve Smith’s production). Delhomme isn’t playable until we see whether he’ll be allowed to throw the ball more than 15-20 times a game. Depending on your roster, you might be stuck playing Smith, but you’ve got to cross your fingers and hope he connects on a deep throw for a TD. Not a great situation, not a great matchup. Avoid it if you can.

CAR: Delhomme -2, Smith -1

So are you going to be the guy that didn’t learn his lesson when he benched Drew Brees against the (formerly) #1 Giants pass defense? Yes, the Panthers picked off Warner 5 times. Doesn’t matter. Brees may not have his best game of the year, but at this point it’s a fool’s wager to bet against him. Devery Henderson is separating himself from the pack as the WR2, and Colston and Shockey are must starts. Start downgrading Moore and Meachem — most weeks the ball is spread around too much for either to put together a big number.

NO: Brees 0, Colston 0, Shockey +1, Henderson +1, Moore -1, Meachem -1

Tennessee (32nd) @ San Francisco (29th)

As expected, the QB switch to Vince Young proved to be detrimental to the Titans’ WR group. Nate Washington salvaged his day with a TD, but nobody had more than 41 yards total. For the time being, expect Gage, Washington, and Britt to be nearly unplayable in all formats. Scaife might enjoy an upgrade if Young checks down more often that Collins.

TEN: Young 0, Gage -1, Washington -1, Britt -1, Scaife 0

I have to admit — I’m very interested to see what Alex Smith does this week. He managed just under 200 yards and a TD against a tough Indy secondary; it’s not hard to imagine he could easily top 200 yards with a couple TD’s this week. He’s got athletic weapons in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree and an experienced outlet in Isaac Bruce, and his decision-making looks much, much better than his first go-round as a starter. Definitely worth stashing in 2 QB leagues. Josh Morgan seems to have gotten the worst of the Crabtree promotion, so don’t rely on him for anything right now. Last week’s game didn’t convince me that the Titans are anything but a bad pass defense, so Smith, Crabtree, and Davis all get the bad-defense upgrade.

SF: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Davis +1, Bruce 0, Morgan -1

San Diego (6th) @ New York Giants (3rd)

Since the Saints opened the floodgates, nobody seems to be scared of the Giants’ pass defense at all. Given San Diego’s general inability to run the ball (and the strength of the Giants D-line), I expect Rivers to pass a lot in this game, using dumpoffs to Tomlinson and Gates to move the chains. Malcolm Floyd takes over the WR2 position from now-released Chris Chambers and gets an automatic +1 for the promotion, but we won’t have real gauge on his production level for a couples games. For now, assume he’ll get about the same number of looks as Chambers but converts a higher percentage of them (ideally, somewhere north of 50%).

SD: Rivers 0, Vincent Jackson 0, Gates +1, Floyd +1

While I don’t expect a Delhomme-style handcuffing, it would make sense for the Giants to pound the ball with Jacobs and Bradshaw here. Eli’s been making mistakes, the WR core is a little dinged up, and San Diego is about as bad a stopping the run as it is shutting down the passing game. Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks will have some trouble with the athletic SD corners, and while Manningham returned to practice on Wednesday, he’s been losing time to Nicks anyway. Kevin Boss had an excellent game last week, but injured his ankle — if he starts, he’s playable, but have a backup plan ready.

NYG: Manning -1, Smith -1, Nicks -1, Manningham -2, Boss -1

8 PM game

Dallas (22nd) @ Philadelphia (10th)

This is a tough matchup for Dallas — Romo, Austin, and Witten are too good to bench, but the Eagles blitz-happy attack induces mistakes and this could be difficult for a risk-taking QB like Romo. Still, there should be yards available in the passing game so don’t downgrade Romo too much other than expecting 1 or 2 INT’s. Roy Williams has been complaining publicly about his role and chemistry with Romo; there’s been no word concerning team discipline, but I’d downgrade him a bit anyway. Crayton is marginal except in return-yardage leagues. Witten owners should hope he’s over his case of the drops, because Kevin Boss demonstrated there’s room in the Philly defense for a TE to take advantage.

DAL: Romo -1, Austin 0, Williams -2, Crayton -1/0, Witten 0

The Cowboy’s pass defense is improving but Seattle proved they can still be thrown on. Celek re-established his offensive role last week, and DeSean Jackson is a WR1 whether it’s a return yardage league or not. Jeremy Maclin is getting consistent looks and I like him to tally 4-6 catches this week. There’s not much value beyond that — Avant shows up every couple of weeks, but it’s not enough to rely on.

PHI: McNabb +1, Jackson +2, Maclin +1, Celek 0

Monday game

Pittsburgh (16th) @ Denver (8th)

Denver’s defense wasn’t as bad as the points total looked last week — they still held Flacco to 175 yards and a touchdown. That line happens to be identical to the line Roethlisberger put up against Minnesota in Week 7. With FWP returning to action, we may be seeing the Steelers shifting the offensive load off of Roethlisberger. He still may be successful, but that success may not translate into fantasy numbers. With that in mind (and Denver’s secondary), I think a downgrade is in order for most of the Steelers. I have a feeling Ward may find some room underneath the secondary so he’s exempt. I don’t like Wallace’s chances of busting a long one this week.

PIT: Roethlisberger -1, Holmes -1, Ward 0, Miller -1, Wallace -1

I think Orton may be forced to throw frequently as I don’t see Denver having much success running the ball on Pittsburgh. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad — lots of attempts against a good defense generally produce turnovers. Orton’s smart enough to avoid bad interceptions, but it won’t be surprising if Polamalu catches one. Royal’s been horrible at converting the targets he’s getting into catches, but it’s worth noting he got as many looks as Marshall did last week, so they are trying to get him involved in the offense. After a nice game in Week 6, Scheffler reverted back to almost worthless status (and was outgained by Daniel Graham) — dump him and roll the dice with someone else.

DEN: Orton -1, Marshall 0, Royal -1, Scheffler -1

The name of the game this week is injury management. Three members of the top tier of wide receivers (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Wayne) are all dinged up heading into Week 8. Chris Cooley is out for at least a month, possibly the entire season. Jermichael Finley won’t be back for at least a couple of weeks. You may even be struggling with the loss of Trent Edwards.

If you’ve built some depth into your roster, and find yourself near the middle of the pack in your league, don’t panic. You don’t want to toss away future strength just to give yourself a marginally better chance at winning this week. If, however, you find yourself near the bottom of the standings, you can’t afford to give away any games and still expect to have a shot at the playoffs. Fortunately, this is a fantastic week for waiver pickups. Injuries to top-flight players results in more looks for lower ranked players. Additionally, four of the worst teams (and worst defenses) are facing off on Sunday, meaning you can grab some of the overlooked players from those normally undesirable offenses.

Just lost Jermichael Finley? Take a shot with Marcedes Lewis (@TEN) or Brandon Pettigrew (STL). Wondering how you’re going to fill in for Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson? Try Donnie Avery (@DET) or Torry Holt (@TEN). If Wayne and Calvin Johnson can’t play on Sunday, don’t overlook Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie (both SF), or Dennis Northcutt (STL). You’ll get more detailed injury information and last minute waiver savers from Razzball as we approach the weekend, so make your plans and be ready to take advantage of the matchups. (more…)

Introductory paragraphs are the most difficult. The temptation to say things like, “Hello, everybody out there in cyberspace!” is almost overwhelming. Also, clever titles are difficult. This is a weekly look at pass defense matchups, so I considered “Air Force One” (GET OFF MY PLANE!) or “Air Traffic Control” (maybe a humorous line about the labor strike?). Feel free to make suggestions, or I’ll just make Doc write one for me.

A quick word about my rating system — I think league settings vary too much for me to be able to rank players accurately for you. Instead, I’m going to assume you have a basic ranking of players already, and will use a weekly rating of -2, -1, 0, +1, or +2 to indicate how I think this week’s matchup affects the base value of the player. Consider -1 and +1 to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier; -2 and +2 bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. Long term value changes will be discussed and the rating adjusted accordingly.

1 PM games

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Cleveland and Buffalo are both just a bit worse than league average in pass defense; unfortunately, both teams have so many questions surrounding their pass offenses that it’s a bit of a waste. For Cleveland, Derek Anderson had a decent second week as a starter against Cincinnati, but with Braylon Edwards on his way to the Jets, it remains to be seen if Massaquoi and Robert Royal can get open while drawing primary defensive attention. New addition Chansi Stuckey is unplayable. For Buffalo, Trent Edwards shouldn’t be relied on as more than a QB2 or bye week fill-in. T.O. and Lee Evans are still talented enough to play as WR2’s in most leagues. Buffalo doesn’t utilize TE’s enough to garner consideration. In other circumstances this ought to be a good week for both offenses, but most of their problems are internal.

CLE: Anderson 0, Massaquoi 0, Royal 0, Stuckey -2
BUF: Edwards 0, Owens 0, Evans 0 (more…)