Fantasy Football Advice

Before we look at the games, I want to say thanks to Doc for stepping in for 3 weeks while I closed and moved into my first house. Like Pedro Cerrano, you’re in good hands with Doc. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

For these playoff games, I’m adding a short “What To Watch” section. I often pick a particular position matchup or aspect of the game that I intend to focus on, to break the habit of just watching the ball on every play. Sometimes the camerawork dictates how successful this endeavor is, but I’ve found it’s a good way to start noticing other parts of the game.

Saturday 4:30 EST

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Great start to the passing matchups…the Jets and Bengals combined for 63 yards passing last week. Even if you don’t count the sack yardage against the total, it doesn’t crack 100 yards between the two teams. While I expect improved totals from both teams, it’s hard to feel good about this matchup. The Jets won’t be able to run 57 times like last week, so while I can’t recommend Sanchez, there’s at least an opportunity for Cotchery to get some looks. Dustin Keller is affected more by Sanchez’s inconsistent play than the opposing defense.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1 (more…)

We continue our playoff rankings with wide receivers, tight ends, defenses, and kickers.  We went over quarterbacks and running backs yesterday.  So if you slap this post together with that one you have a rankings sandwich that will satiate your playoff hunger.

Wide receivers are a crapshoot already, but add a receivers inherent sketchiness to the playoffs one and done-ness, and you have a recipe for some poor choices.  And that tastes not nearly as good as a rankings sandwich.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: This is a bit of a shaky number one since there is always a chance that Peyton could use Reggie as a decoy, but I feel like he is the safest bet for overall production.

2. Randy Moss: His talent should put him at #1, but I worry about the Welker effect.  It’s similar to the Revis effect, but hurts Moss every game, not just when they play the Jets. You could argue that Moss will see more passes his way, but he should have some trouble shedding double coverage without Welker around.  He will get his no matter what, but will they get past Baltimore? If you think so he’s easily worth a top pick.

3. Miles Austin: I almost put him at number one, but he has a chance to be one and done.  Romo knows that trying to placate Roy Williams doesn’t win games and that Miles Austin is the real deal. (more…)

(Editor’s note: Make sure you join our week 16 contest.  If you don’t, people will laugh at you!)

Josh Morgan: The captain in you should take a shot of Morgan as the new aerial assault in San Fran has been turning coal into diamonds; if you’re a cagey owner, you just might find some in your stocking.  Jimmy Raye’s system has clearly benefited Morgan who has seen a jump in targets and production.  Last week he was targeted eight times (one behind Crabtree) catching seven balls for 61 yards and a touchdown.  Though his numbers in week 14 dipped slightly, he had six receptions in both week 12 and 13.  Though I wouldn’t bet the farm on Morgan, if you are an owner looking for a safe flex play without a tremendously high ceiling, I would take Morgan against the Lions.  Over his last four games he has been hovering around 5-6 receptions for 50-70 yards and his chances of scoring are relatively high this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey kids, Bowe knows drugs…and football.  Fresh off a four game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy (banned diuretic), Bowe had a strong showing with four catches for 56 yards on ten targets.  As much as I hate Dwayne Bowe (and I really hate Dwayne Bowe) you should grab him this weekend if he is somehow still on waivers.  He has a nice matchup against the Bengals who were absolutely torched by Vincent Jackson last week.  Who knows, perhaps his work ethic has improved as it is much harder to throw up after meals than it is to take a weight loss drug.

Mike Wallace: Many will be shopping at Wally world this holiday season but buyers beware; Wallace has only caught two passes in each of his last four games for a total of 156 yards.  His only two touchdowns over the last four weeks came this past weekend off his two receptions for 79 yards.  Yes, the win against the Packers may be the spark that Pittsburgh needs and yes, they do favor the pass which challenges everything I’ve ever known about Pittsburgh football, but to me he is a very risky play against Baltimore in one of the most important fantasy weeks of the year.  He is still a distant third on the team in targets, commanding only 11 over the past three weeks (Ward has 28 and Holmes has 31 over that same span), so before you jump on the Wallace wagon, proceed with caution.

Justin Gage: If success is “gauged” on touchdowns in your league, than Gage is “Justin’” time to bring you a fantasy championship.  Gage is truly a playmaker and he hasn’t had much time to reap the benefits of the newly polished Tennessee offense.  Starting in the 3^rd receiver spot on Sunday after coming off a back injury, Gage was targeted three times (2^nd behind Washington who had 5), catching two passes for 43 yards and two touchdowns.  Now that’s efficiency.  Expect Gage to see an increased role moving forward and he has a pretty good matchup against San Diego this weekend.

David Anderson: The Texans’ third receiver may actually have some safe play value in deep leagues.  Anderson’s role has certainly increased as a result of Daniels’ injury and he has been fairly consistent over the second half of the season.  Over the last three weeks Anderson has accumulated 15 targets.  Last week Anderson caught five passes for 34 yards and he has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games.  Don’t get me wrong, I think you have to be really desperate to use him, but if the other options are picked over he can at least give you some stability in deeper PPR leagues.

Devin Aromashadu: The man who caught eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown in week 14 was much less impressive this past weekend, catching only two passes for ten yards.  The good news is that he was targeted ten times though three of those targets were intercepted.  The hapless Jay Cutler likes Aromashadu, but lately he’s been as responsible with the football as Tiger Woods has been with his marriage.  At this point I can’t say that I recommend Aromashadu, but he could be a risk reward play for you daring owners against a Minnesota pass defense that was ripped up by Matt Moore. P.S. check Hester’s injury status before investing.

Greg Camarillo: The Dolphins’ possession receiver has looked good lately and though I still think that Bess is the man, Camarillo’s consistency could come in handy, especially in PPR leagues.  This past weekend he led Dolphin receivers with ten targets, catching five passes for 46 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Camarillo is only one behind Bess in total targets with 27 and he had a monster game against Jacksonville in week 14, catching seven passes for 110 yards.  Camarillo’s lack of touchdown production will keep his ceiling low, but he may be able to provide a solid 8-12 points or more against Houston this weekend.

Target Trends

1. Player with the most targets last week

-Steve Smith (Car) (15)

2. Players with fewer targets last week than Deion Branch (10)

-Santonio Holmes, Marques Colston, Mike Sims-Walker, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Donald Driver, Larry Fitzgerald

3. Brandon Marshall has the most targets over the last three weeks (48)

4. Michael Crabtree has the 6^th most targets over the last three weeks (32)

5. New Orleans Saints’ receiver target leaders over the last three weeks

-Meachem (24), Colston (22)

6. Players with equal to or fewer targets than Malcom Floyd over the last three weeks

-Randy Moss, Desean Jackson, T.O., Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne

The old adage “Sell High, Buy Low” just doesn’t do it for me. I’m not convinced it covers enough of the strategy landscape. So what I’ve done is tweak it a little bit to include “Buying High” and “Selling Low.”

There are times when buying high isn’t a bad idea. Players break out- it’s what we’re looking for, really. I feel like everyone is so focused on the “Sell High” paradigm that they will trade a player when he’s doing well just because they feel like they’re cashing in on a profit.

Selling low isn’t desirable but it’s better than the alternative sometimes. You are better off getting something for a player who is underperforming than waiting on him a few more weeks and being forced to drop him, getting nothing in return.

Some of these players will ruin your ability to “Buy Low” because they will put up numbers and raise their price. Conversely some players that have played beyond their means will come back to earth, ruining your ability to “Sell High.” But at the end of the day you should end up with a few players to target in trade and perhaps a player or two on your team you’d like to get rid of.

Buy High

Rashard Mendenhall – Looks like he’s about to put up some digits. Willie Parker has turf toe and it looks like he won’t play. Turf Toe is one of those injuries that nags players and especially for someone like Parker who relies on his burst this could be disaster.  Mendenhall’s stock just went up but he hasn’t done anything yet this season so trade now.

Jerome Harrison – Jamal Lewis is doubtful, and James Davis is out for the season. Coming into the season I was really big on Harrison; I targeted him in every draft. Then I drank the “James Davis Kool-Aid” and started sleeper-crushing on him like everyone else. The price may be a little too high now that Davis is out, but if Lewis gets some work soon I’d target Harrison.

Vincent Jackson — His value won’t be much higher than it is now, but there is no reason to think he’s going to slow down.  Make your opponent believe he is selling high, because he is!

Cedric Benson — I have to admit he’s looked good, even against a stout Pittsburgh run defense.  If you get someone who still doesn’t believe in him grab him up.

Sell High

Darren Sproles – You might be able to get a lot for him. I’ve said over and over that I don’t think LT will stay healthy but anything can happen. With all the injuries a lot of people are freaking out at RB and you might be able to get a high round pick for Sproles. As much as I love this guy I think it’d be worth it.

Willis McGahee – His value is derived from touchdowns and there’s no way he’s going to keep up this torrid pace. The injury concerns have also got to be a factor. I’ve seen him starting to get traded a lot and that’s the play.

Julius Jones – Ranked 12^th overall in Yahoo right now. If someone is really hurting for a running back you might be able to get really good value out of him.

Donald Driver – But he made a one handed catch! Yes, I know he did. Right now Driver is 28^th overall in Yahoo and I say if you can get anything close to that in value it’s trigger-pulling time.

Buy Low

Larry Fitzgerald – The “freakout fest” has officially begun. Preseason ESPN was declaring that we should all worship Larry Fitzgerald. Now all of a sudden they are putting a smear campaign on him. They are going Tanya Harding on his Fantasy Value. Look to trade for him everywhere. Don’t believe this nonsense. I could go on for a whole column about this but I’ll just stop here.

Kevin Smith — If he doesn’t go against the Bears or if he does and doesn’t get much playing time I would look hard at trading for him.  He is good and the Lions offense will continue to improve.

Marshawn Lynch – First week out there the Bills may not give him a ton of carries.

Calvin Johnson – The breakout game is coming folks. I had him on here last week also. Hopefully he doesn’t break for another week giving all non-owners a chance to get him.

Ray Rice — Yes he is losing goalline carries to McGahee, but he still has more overall carries.  McGahee could easily be good all season, but Rice can be too, and he isn’t as old, and injury prone.  If McGahee goes down Rice will be worth a ton, if he doesn’t, he still will have value.

Sell Low

Frank Gore – I wouldn’t want any part of his injury concerns. You won’t get equal value for him but you should still be able to get something decent and you’d be protected in case he comes back and gets hurt again.

LaDanian Tomlinson – He’s scheduled to play this weekend against Pittsburgh. Hopefully he plays well and looks healthy so you can unload him on someone.

Ryan Grant – He is an every down starter and teams need every down starters, but he is also not explosive and just doesn’t look like the breakout back from 2 years ago.  I’d pair him up with a WR for a Ronnie Brown/Kevin Smith type.

There are a lot of football players in the NFL.  So many that if you tried to fit them into a clown car you’d have to have a monster sized blender and even then I just don’t see it happening.  So fitting 50 NFL players on this little screen was no small feat.  If you are extremely on top of things, you may notice that Thomas Jones skipped from the top 50 post into this one.  And Ray Rice flew from this post in the future and is now in the top 50 post.  It’s all very complicated and I have my people on it, but suffice it to say, Jones dropping, Rice rising.

I will be using these rankings when I draft at this Nerd Festival outside Chicago.  I hope to meet my childhood hero, Matthew Berry.  Where I will do my journalistic duty and find out once and for all what he reads between masturbation sessions.

Also, if you get a hankerin, there are still a couple slots left in the RCL Leagues.  Give the organizers an email for more info.

And I’ve updated the 2009 Fantasy Football Tier Rankings because I care.

51. Desean Jackson: All the reports about DJax out of camp have been glowing and hopefully not the radioactive kind.  His ceiling is somewhat low with the amount the Eagles spread the ball around, but he is their true #1 and should put up close to #1 numbers. ADP: 43 Projection: 7/1000

52. Eddie Royal: Much of Royal’s value comes from Brandon Marshall’s lack of value.  And Marshall’s value seems to fluctuate with every training camp report.  Royal should get more looks because the Broncos’ want to see him do well with the unpredictability of Marshall and his lack of playbook knowledge, but don’t go overboard on Royal.  He will have a good season, but Marshall is sticking around and they will throw him the ball. ADP: 55 Projection: 6/1050

53. Chad Ochocinco: The annoying one has looked good in preseason.  He has risen up my draft charts a little, but I still worry about the Bengals’ O-line and how loco en la cabeza Ocho is. ADP: 37 Projection: 8/950

54. Hines Ward: Mr. Consistent, Ward  blocks, he catches, he smiles. We know his upside by now, but that upside is worth quite a bit.  I tend to take a mixture of upside and consistency on my teams and Ward has consistency out the upside! ADP: 77 Projection: 7/1000

55. Donald Driver: Hines’ counterpart on the consistency front, Driver is tough and stable.  He won’t win you any dropped jaws when you take him to the prom, but he’ll put out. ADP: 81 Projection:7/1000

56. Tony Romo: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.

57. Antonio Bryant: His injury in preseason hurts already low expectations for Bryant this year.  He won me leagues last year and I want to like him again, but the coaching and QB situation hurt him more than his preseason injury which he should recover from. ADP: 71 Projection: 7/975

58. Willie Parker: Things have been looking good for FWP in preseason.  Not that he has wowed the world, but that Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t.  The prospects aren’t amazing for Parker, but they aren’t as horrible as they looked earlier. ADP: 65 Projection: 6/950, 1/150

59. Torry Holt: He is old and his fingers go into positions no fingers should go, but he is wiley and crafty and all that stuff and he will run good routes and catch the ball.  Garrard hasn’t really had that luxury with his wide receivers.  With the constant threat of MJD even on 3rd downs Holt should be able to get open and should have a productive year. ADP: 95 Projection: 7/950

60. Julius Jones: His value keeps fluctuating like a Mike Holmgren heart monitor.  First there was news of a trade for Thomas Jones and then the Seahawks signed Edge and then they dropped TJ Duckett!  The RB situation is not clear, but I believe Jones has more life in his legs than Edge and will get the bulk of the work.  I’m sticking with JJ, for now. ADP: 93 Projection: 5/1000, 1/150

61. Thomas Jones: It’s not unusual to want to draft Thomas Jones.  It’s not unusual to look at his stats near the end zone.  But if you draft him too high I’m going to see you cry. Oh, you’ll wanna die. ADP: 58 Projection: 7/900, 1/100

62. Joseph Addai: How this RBBC shizz will break down is beyond me.  It seems like the “ambiguously starting duo” will see their production mirror each other pretty well over the entire season.  I sure don’t expect the Colts to help us fakefootballers out here. ADP: 57 Projection: 5/830, 2/225

63. Donald Brown: See above, weep. ADP: 78 Projection: 5/790, 1/300

64. Lee Evans: Evans is a peculiar case.  With the addition of TO he should have more opportunities to get open deep which is what he does well, but he will lose looks.  If Edwards was an elite QB I’d be doing a little jig for Evans, but he is way too inconsistent with a Swiss cheese line.  He will have some big games along with some duds, just like every year. ADP: 64 Projection: 7/950

65. Derrick Mason: Here forms the triumvirate of oldish consistent WR’s.  The Bran Triumvirate of Ward, Driver and Mason will not let you down, so to speak.  Flacco has looked good in preseason and should help Mason have another high reception year with decent yardage and TD’s.  I don’t see Clayton taking away any touches so he will be the man once again. But check his ADP, he can be had later at value. ADP: 99 Projection: 6/1000

66. Donovan McNabb: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.

67. Derrick Ward: If he was the every down back he would be the second coming of 2008’s Derrick Ward, but with a rotation of Graham and “Don’t call me Yugo” Williams it is very difficult to see how the backfield will shake out.  I’m staying away even though I’m tempted. ADP: 47 Projection: 4/850, 1/275

68. Kurt Warner: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.

69. LenDale White: LenScaled-Down White will continue to get goalline carries.  If you need the TD’s then grab the TD’s. ADP: 66 Projection: 11/750

70. Jonathan Stewart: His lingering achilles injury is concerning a lot of owners right now.  How long will it linger?  Will it flare up during the season? Will it run off and join the circus?  All valid questions.  Right now I am somewhat concerned, but his TD potential is too good to let him drop far. ADP: 68 Projection: 7/800, 0/125

71.  Chris Wells: I hate rookies. I mean, really, what good are they?  But sadly rookie RB’s can be good and Wells is in a good situation to produce.  Hightower couldn’t do much last season except score touchdowns, so Wells, if he can learn the system and show something in preseason could see a lot of work early on.  I am not sold on either him or Hightower and could see either or neither making an impact this season.  How’s that for waffling?! But Wells’ upside is higher while Hightower’s stability is higher.  Go with the upside. ADP: 76 Projection: 5/795, 1/175

72. Matt Schaub: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.

73. Dallas Clark: The Colts have a nice schedule against poor pass D’s and Manning is ready to go.  Clark will continue to do well, with more upside this year than the last. ADP: 58 Projection: 6/825

74. Tony Gonzalez: Gonzo will block more this season and won’t get nearly the targets he got with KC last year.  But he will have a better QB and supporting cast so he should see plenty of Red Zone targets. ADP: 53 Projection: 6/800

75. Leon Washington: It looks more and more likely that a large share of the offense will run through him, but he’ll have to fight off mean Jones and Greene. ADP: 105 Projection: 4/750, 1, 250

76. Felix Jones: There isn’t much room in the Cowboys backfield for Jones to get too many looks.  A lot will depend on what he does when he gets those looks.  He has the ability to break one at any time. ADP: 72 Projection: 2/600, 2/425

77. Santana Moss: I’ve been preaching against Moss this preseason and I’m not going to stop until the whole world knows my message! I will spam email you, will leave little anti-Moss pamphlets on park benches!  Ah, he’s not THAT bad, he’s just too inconsistent with a sad QB.  In head to head leagues he will make you cry.  ADP: 74 Projection: 6/950

78. Fred Jackson: He gave all those Lynch owners who handcuffed him a scare when he injured his wrist, but it looks like he’ll be ok for the season.  He’s tied to Lynch, but with a little more upside than other handcuffs because he will get 3 games of extensive work. ADP: 103 Projection: 3/650, 1/375

79. Cedric Benson: He’s a starter.  Not a very good one.  ADP: 73 Projection: 4/800, 1/175

80. Owen Daniels: He looked poised for a huge season until Schaub went down.  He still ended up with top 10 numbers, but this year with a healthy Schaub he should push the big 4. ADP: 92 Projection: 5/850

81. Rashard Mendenhall: Mendy is dropping like that stone in the stone vs. feather experiment.  If only we lived in that vacuum!  Willie Parker is small, injury prone, light as a feather, and in the last year of his contract.  The Steelers want Rashard to get a lot of time and take over, but he’s just not doing it yet.  I need to see a little more life out of him. ADP: 103 Projection: 5/700, 1, 200

82. Matt Ryan: See the Top 10 Quarterbacks post for projections.

83. Santonio Holmes: Holmes has breakout potential, but I think Ward will still get most of Big Ben’s attention unless Holmes learns how to fix a TV. ADP: 60 Projection: 7/850

84. Greg Olsen: He will be Cutler’s security blanket.  He is now the official starter and will challenge the top 5 TE’s this year.  And he could be related to Merlin Olsen. ADP 67 Projection: 5/850

85: Carson Palmer: Lots of upside and lots of downside because there’s a good chance he’ll be on his backside.  If he can stay healthy I think he’ll have a good year.  Ochocinco, Coles and Henry make up a nice core of receivers and he’ll need to get them the ball a lot. ADP: 86: Projection: 27/3650

86. Kellen Winslow: Winslow should do well in his new tropical environs.  Whoever his QB ends up being, probably Leftwich, he’ll need to have an outlet like Winslow.  He should have a top 10 season with top 5 potential.  Why do I think of cantaloupes when I think of Winslow? ADP: 80 Projection: 5/825

87. Devin Hester: Cutler will make Hester better.  It is inevitable.  He will never be a true #1 receiver, but he can get close on the back of Jay Cutler’s arm (mixed metaphor alert!). ADP: 79 Projection: 6/925

88. Jerricho Cotchery: There isn’t much drabber than Mr. Cotchery.  He makes me sleepy just typing his name. ADP: 94 Projection: 6/900

89. Percy Harvin: He is a wildcard at this point.  He is explosive, but sometimes explosions are, well, painful.  He is very much worth a flier, but the hype machine is in full force, so don’t get caught in it’s gears. ADP: 97 Projection: 1/100, 5/800

90. Chris Cooley: He is a safe bet for 75-80 receptions, but on a Redskins team that I find painful to watch I don’t see him getting into the endzone too often. ADP: 84 Projection: 5/800

91. Steve Breaston: He only needs Boldin to tweak something for a few games for him to post big numbers for a #3 receiver. ADP: 101 Projection: 6/900

92. Patrick Crayton: He is being overlooked, but he is the #2 receiver on a team that is built to put points on the oversized giant low hanging scoreboard. ADP: 140 Projection: 6/875

93. Ted Ginn: Another player being overlooked this season, Ginn is the #1 receiver on a team that should be better offensively this year.  This is also his magical 3rd year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him belch first downs and fart rainbows. ADP: 106 Projection: 6/870

94. Donnie Avery: He seems to be healing quickly from his stress fractured foot.  I just don’t know what kind of stress his foot must have been under?  Did his foot have to speak in front of a large crowd or was his foot behind on his mortgage payment?  Whatever the problem it seems to be getting better and Avery is the best receiver on that Rams team. ADP: 89 Projection: 6/850

95. Laverneus Coles: He seemed like a nice replacement for Houshmandzadeh, but with Henry playing so well in preseason I could see Coles losing some looks to him.  There is even a possibility Henry could take over as the #2 so I am going with Henry if I can get him later. ADP: 88 Projection: 7/800

96. Jay Cutler: He has an arm bestowed by Purple Jesus himself.  But sometimes he thinks he’s bigger than PJ and nobody is bigger than PJ!  He will make the Bears better, but won’t have the numbers he had last year. ADP: 85 Projection: 24/3600

97. Tim Hightower: Beanie is a weanie or at least his muscles and ligaments are and if he can’t really take over the job it defaults to Hightower.  He is worth a late round pick. ADP: 98 Projection: 5/700, 1/175

98. Pittsburgh Steelers: The only defense I would even contemplate picking in the top 100.  I still wouldn’t do it, but I’d contemplate it. ADP: 90 Projection: Bringing Pain!

99. Ahmad Bradshaw: I am banking on Jacobs injuring himself this year.  When I wrote that down and slid it to the teller they thought I was robbing the place.  Getting Bradshaw late in your draft might be like robbing your league mates, bah doomp chee cha! ADP: 91 Projection: 3/550, 2/380

100. LeSean McCoy: With Westbrook’s oldness taking over his leg area McCoy is a safe bet to get at least some work, but with a chance for much more. ADP: 83 Projection: 4/650, 1/275

101. Kevin Walter: The Houston offense is going to be a fantasy village to pillage. ADP: 82 Projection: 5/825

UPDATE: Brandon Marshall: (Marshall has been suspended for the rest of the preseason.  He will drop in ADP, but as long as he gets on the field he is still worth a pick.  I’ll insert him back in the rankings soon) Well, he didn’t get sent to prison so he will be playing football, which needs to happen if you want him to score points on your team.  Eddie Royal looks to take away some of his receptions this year and he has Orton (or maybe Simms) throwing to him rather than the strong armed Cutler.  He won’t disappear, but lower your expectations a bit. ADP: 37  Projection: 7/1050