2024 Fantasy Football Rookie Breakouts

It’s time to break out the crystal ball to make breakout predictions about this talented rookie class. Breakouts are defined by QBs/TEs finishing the season within the top 12 and RBs/WRs finishing the season within the top 24 of their position.

Be sure to check out Razzball Football’s updated rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF

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2024 Fantasy Football Rookie Breakouts

• Player: Caleb Williams
• Team: Chicago Bears
• Position: QB
• Dynasty Rookie Rank: 1

Our projections by Rudy have Williams finishing as QB10 with 4,528 yards and 23 TDs. Williams would become only the sixth rookie in NFL history to throw over 4,000 passing yards. The Trojan has all the passing options to be successful with two WRs Keenan Allen and D.J Moore who have a combined 10 seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards. Mix in a rookie WR, Rome Odunze, who was drafted in the top 10, and TE Cole Kmet, who is coming off career-highs in receptions and receiving yards, Williams has more options than any rookie QB in a long time. New OC Shane Waldron is no stranger to manufacturing QB success with three wide sets by designing mismatches for his playmakers. Williams is one of two players with win-now appeal in dynasty and redraft leagues.

• Player: Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Team: Arizona Cardinals
• Position: WR
• Dynasty Rookie Rank: 2

This player holds high value in dynasty and redraft leagues. The top WR in the 2023 draft enters a Cardinals team with little competition for targets from former number pick, Kyler Murray. It’s not a stretch to think Harrison Jr could see 25-30% target share in his first season while flirting with 80 catches for at least 1,000 yards and eight TDs. The last time Murray had an “elite WR,” DeAndre Hopkins finished as WR4 in 2020. I believe the emergence of Trey McBride will keep opposing defenses honest, allowing the former Buckeye space to operate all over the field. He’s easily one of the top WRs to target in all formats.

• Player: Malik Nabers
• Team: New York Giants
• Position: WR
• Dynasty Rookie Rank: 4

I view Nabers as a top talent in this draft but I am not confident he will be a WR1 in his rookie season. His QB, Daniel Jones, has never thrown at least 100 targets to his top WR since entering the league in 2019. Since becoming the head coach in New York in 2022, Brian Daboll’s top WR has only seen 71 and 79 targets. Daboll has a history of targeting his best player while in Buffalo when Stefon Diggs drew 160 targets in back-to-back seasons and 2011 when Brandon Marshall saw 141 targets down in Miami. For Nabers to end up in WR2 territory, Jones will need to target Nabers a minimal 130 times, which I think he will since Saquon Barkley is out of the picture. 

Honorable Selections

• Player: Jayden Daniels
• Team: Washington Commanders
• Position: WR
• Dynasty Rookie Rank: 3

Daniels enters an ideal situation in D.C. with Kliff Kingsbury as his OC. Kingsbury developed his former rookie QB, Kyler Murray, into Rookie of the Year and two Pro Bowls. From a fantasy perspective, Murray ended his rookie campaign as QB7 in 2019. Daniels is a dual-threat quarterback with traits similar to Murray. Daniels has the benefit of veterans Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, and one of my rookie sleepers, Luke McCaffrey, at his disposal. He’s currently a borderline QB1/QB2 for me. If Brandon Aiyuk finds his way on this roster, Daniels will finish the season as a top-12 QB.

• Player: Jonathon Brooks
• Team: Carolina Panthers
• Position: RB
• Dynasty Rookie Rank: 10

Panthers Head Coach Dave Canales prioritized pairing skill players alongside Bryce Young in his first draft. Brooks was the first RB selected in the 2024 draft after the Panthers traded up in the second round. Carolina has a plan for Brooks, who was recovering from ACL surgery this offseason. As of this article’s date, he is cleared to practice during training camp. Brooks is the most explosive and dynamic RB on the Panthers’ roster and once he’s fully healthy he’ll be a bellcow RB. Canales has produced a top-10 RB as the OC in Tampa Bay with Rachaad White. If Brooks can earn and sustain the workload by Week 4, Brooks should be able to put up RB2 numbers.  He is most likely going in the end of the first round in rookie drafts but his ADP in the 90s in redraft screams value.

• Player: Keon Coleman
• Team: Buffalo Bills
• Position: WR
• Dynasty Rookie Rank: 12

Coleman is an honorable selection because of his opportunity in Buffalo. It can’t be stressed how much fantasy success is determined by opportunity. The former Seminole was fortunate enough to get selected to play alongside Josh Allen, who suddenly needs WR help with 241 available targets in his WR room. As the Bills’ WR1, Stefon Diggs finished as a top-10 WR in four consecutive seasons (2020-23). Coleman is best suited for the X-role in the offense, taking over for Diggs. He could lead all Bills’ WRs in targets within his rookie season and should Coleman be the top dog in Buffalo, he has an outside shot finishing as a WR2. 

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