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Welcome to one of our last strategy sessions of the preseason (I think it’s our last. Besides comparing our rankings with those of ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS… which isn’t really strategy as it is, “haha, look how funny they are at ranking things type of post”). This is probably the biggest draft week (and weekend) in Fantasy Football, and I’m sure there are plenty out there who either play in formats that either start two quarterbacks, or change their touchdown point value from four to six. And in that regard, I bring you a post that should kill two birds with one stone, because ef birds, but also look guys at my profound ability to both have amazing geometric awareness and mind-bending arm dexterity to actually kill a living animal that can fly by bouncing a stone off of both of them!

Want to take on Razzball writers and contributors in the great game of Fantasy Football? For Prizes? OH MY GOD YES. Where do you sign up? Great question! (Even though you didn’t technically ask. I mean, you might have, but I couldn’t hear you…) You can join here!

 

2QB Leagues

So, in the first part of our strategy “session” (or sesh, as some people call it… well, I actually have no idea who uses that term, but it’s there, and we have to deal with it), we are going to go over two-quarterback leagues. (The 6-point TD will be covered below if that’s your thing.) Because having just Tony Romo lead your team to fantasy playoff aspirations until November hits and he spectacularly lets you down is not enough in these leagues. (Mostly because this year he already Romonobyled…) But back to the point, nope, in these formats, we need to add in the potential to both own Tony Romo and Jay Cutler on the same fantasy team, which I heard is the 19th sign of the end of the world. Obama was the 17th and 18th sign on the list, if you were wondering. Yes, that’s right, two-quarterback leagues are really, really different… I can’t stress that enough. Which is why you got two “really’s”. Everything you know about standard and PPR formats gets thrown out the window, as you’ll see the aforementioned Jay Cutler be drafted ahead of a guy like Alshon Jeffery in most of these leagues. That’s a cup of crazy, as they would say. Actually, they wouldn’t say that… I don’t think anyone has ever said that. (Hashtag “cup of crazy” to get that started.) So let’s get you primed for what is going to be the weirdest draft you’ve ever been a part of. Unless it’s a “salamanders in your pants” draft. That would probably top this one.

The format itself is generally easy to grasp. As I stated earlier, you have two QB slots (or a full flex, QB/RB/WR/TE, which should be flexed to the QB slot regardless), and with those slots, you should probably draft two QB’s. (Ya think?) How you determine to fill those spots, and more importantly, when, are the keys to this proverbial car. Unless you want me to start talking about crazy cups again. NEVER AGAIN. (#cupofcrazy.)

There are essentially four approaches you can take here…

  • Draft a top-10 quarterback and pair him up with a top-25 quarterback (i.e. Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater).
  • Draft a top-5 quarterback and pair him up with a top-35 quarterback (i.e. Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff).
  • Draft a top-15 quarterback and pair him up with another top-15 quarterback (i.e. Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr).
  • Draft a top-40 quarterback and pair him up with another top-40 quarterback (Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo)… and then pray for a miracle.

Obviously, the first three options are the most recommended here, so unless you are either a professional scout, a mind-reader, or Jimmy Garoppolo’s mother, the fourth option is really something you should not consider if you’d like to compete in some manner or fashion.

So we’re left with three different ways of getting a quarterback. And though it might sound dull, with the state of QB mid-round depth this season, I usually aim for a top-15/top-15 split. Based on my own 2016 Projections, and to hammer the point even more of how important it is to get your QB’s early, here’s how I see the top-50 fantasy point leaders shaping up in this specific format (0.5-PPR):

Rank Player Pos Team Points
1 Cam Newton QB CAR 334.00
2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 332.90
3 Andrew Luck QB IND 330.20
4 Russell Wilson QB SEA 312.20
5 Drew Brees QB NO 303.80
6 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 291.20
7 Philip Rivers QB SD 280.80
8 Antonio Brown WR PIT 272.70
9 Carson Palmer QB ARI 272.60
10 Blake Bortles QB JAC 268.40
11 Tyrod Taylor QB BUF 267.40
12 Andy Dalton QB CIN 264.20
13 Kirk Cousins QB WAS 258.80
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ 258.50
15 Eli Manning QB NYG 256.50
16 Jameis Winston QB TB 256.10
17 Matt Ryan QB ATL 255.60
18 Derek Carr QB OAK 255.20
19 Julio Jones WR ATL 255.00
20 Matthew Stafford QB DET 253.10
21 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 252.50
22 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 251.70
23 Alex Smith QB KC 247.80
24 Marcus Mariota QB TEN 241.10
25 Joe Flacco QB BAL 239.80
26 Tom Brady QB NE 234.70
27 Jay Cutler QB CHI 234.30
28 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 233.60
29 Jamaal Charles RB KC 232.50
30 Le’Veon Bell RB PIT 228.00
31 A.J. Green WR CIN 224.10
32 Brock Osweiler QB HOU 223.70
33 Jordy Nelson WR GB 214.60
34 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 212.80
35 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 212.60
36 Lamar Miller RB HOU 211.10
37 Teddy Bridgewater QB MIN 209.70
38 Todd Gurley RB LA 207.90
39 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 207.00
40 Dez Bryant WR DAL 206.10
41 David Johnson RB ARI 205.20
42 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 205.20
43 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 201.50
44 Mike Evans WR TB 197.90
45 Brandin Cooks WR NO 197.00
46 Randall Cobb WR GB 196.80
47 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 196.70
48 Mark Ingram RB NO 195.80
49 Allen Robinson WR JAC 193.20
50 Keenan Allen WR SD 192.30

As you can see, Antonio Brown is the only player that even sniffs the top-10 in a league that has so much emphasis at the QB position. Julio Jones is the next player, and he just barely comes in at the top-20. Because of this (and the basic tenants of supply and demand), I have to stress that you go QB/QB in the first two rounds, or, at the very least, QB/RB or WR/QB in the first three. Once you start hitting the fourth round, there will be very few names to pick from, and just looking at the point totals, you’ll be leaving close to 150 or more fantasy points on the table depending on what plays out. That’s something you can ill-afford to do…

 

The 6-Point Touchdown

We always receive plenty of questions about this specific scoring format and I wanted to make sure we had a concrete answers to give. Though, I do prefer wood a bit more. (That’s what she said.) Plus, if a someone asks about this type of format and how it affects scoring, all I have to do is link them to this post. It’s always nice to answer things back in hyperlinks, because blue is a great color, you get a free underline, and you can interact with them! You only get one out of those three when paying $94.00 to go see the Blue Man Group. What. A. Steal. Regardless, we’re here to show data on how a 6-Point Passing Touchdown affects the scoring of your quarterbacks, and how that changes where they sit in the rankings, all based on our 2016 Projections.

Quarterbacks Ranked by the 6-Point Touchdown Format

Rank NAME TD INT 4-PT TD 6-PT TD % Increase
1 Andrew Luck 37 16 330.20 407.62 23.45%
2 Aaron Rodgers 36 7 332.90 404.54 21.52%
3 Cam Newton 28 14 334.00 389.24 16.54%
4 Drew Brees 36 17 303.80 375.22 23.51%
5 Russell Wilson 29 11 312.20 368.04 17.89%
6 Ben Roethlisberger 33 15 291.20 357.42 22.74%
7 Philip Rivers 33 14 280.80 346.22 23.30%
8 Carson Palmer 31 14 272.60 331.42 21.58%
9 Blake Bortles 26 17 268.40 324.62 20.95%
10 Andy Dalton 29 16 264.20 319.62 20.98%
11 Kirk Cousins 28 15 258.80 315.50 21.91%
12 Tyrod Taylor 22 11 267.40 313.98 17.42%
13 Eli Manning 29 16 256.50 312.28 21.75%
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick 25 15 258.50 308.46 19.33%
15 Derek Carr 27 13 255.20 308.30 20.81%
16 Matt Ryan 26 14 255.60 307.48 20.30%
17 Matthew Stafford 27 17 253.10 304.90 20.47%
18 Jameis Winston 24 15 256.10 301.52 17.74%
19 Ryan Tannehill 25 15 252.50 301.38 19.36%
20 Alex Smith 22 9 247.80 290.20 17.11%
21 Joe Flacco 24 15 239.80 288.62 20.36%
22 Tom Brady 27 7 234.70 286.92 22.25%
23 Marcus Mariota 21 13 241.10 283.32 17.51%
24 Jay Cutler 24 15 234.30 282.12 20.41%
25 Brock Osweiler 23 14 223.70 269.12 20.30%
26 Teddy Bridgewater 18 11 209.70 247.30 17.93%
27 Sam Bradford 18 10 173.20 214.98 24.12%
28 Dak Prescott 16 14 180.40 212.42 17.75%
29 Robert Griffin 13 10 177.90 203.80 14.56%
30 Jared Goff 17 14 165.80 198.58 19.77%

Quarterbacks Ranked by Percentage Increased from 4-TD to 6-TD Formats

Rank NAME TD INT 4-PT TD 6-PT TD % Increase
1 Sam Bradford 18 10 173.20 214.98 24.12%
2 Drew Brees 36 17 303.80 375.22 23.51%
3 Andrew Luck 37 16 330.20 407.62 23.45%
4 Philip Rivers 33 14 280.80 346.22 23.30%
5 Ben Roethlisberger 33 15 291.20 357.42 22.74%
6 Tom Brady 27 7 234.70 286.92 22.25%
7 Kirk Cousins 28 15 258.80 315.50 21.91%
8 Eli Manning 29 16 256.50 312.28 21.75%
9 Carson Palmer 31 14 272.60 331.42 21.58%
10 Aaron Rodgers 36 7 332.90 404.54 21.52%
11 Andy Dalton 29 16 264.20 319.62 20.98%
12 Blake Bortles 26 17 268.40 324.62 20.95%
13 Derek Carr 27 13 255.20 308.30 20.81%
14 Matthew Stafford 27 17 253.10 304.90 20.47%
15 Jay Cutler 24 15 234.30 282.12 20.41%
16 Joe Flacco 24 15 239.80 288.62 20.36%
17 Brock Osweiler 23 14 223.70 269.12 20.30%
18 Matt Ryan 26 14 255.60 307.48 20.30%
19 Jared Goff 17 14 165.80 198.58 19.77%
20 Ryan Tannehill 25 15 252.50 301.38 19.36%
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick 25 15 258.50 308.46 19.33%
22 Teddy Bridgewater 18 11 209.70 247.30 17.93%
23 Russell Wilson 29 11 312.20 368.04 17.89%
24 Dak Prescott 16 14 180.40 212.42 17.75%
25 Jameis Winston 24 15 256.10 301.52 17.74%
26 Marcus Mariota 21 13 241.10 283.32 17.51%
27 Tyrod Taylor 22 11 267.40 313.98 17.42%
28 Alex Smith 22 9 247.80 290.20 17.11%
29 Cam Newton 28 14 334.00 389.24 16.54%
30 Robert Griffin 13 10 177.90 203.80 14.56%

Let’s take a look at my boy Philip Rivers for a moment to see how one’s value changes in this format. (???????????????????????????????????????? good sh*t go౦ԁ sH*t???? thats ✔ some good????????sh*t right????????there???????????? right✔there ✔✔if i do ƽaү so my self ???? i say so ???? thats what im talking about right there right there (chorus: ʳᶦᵍʰᵗ ᵗʰᵉʳᵉ) mMMMMᎷМ???? ???????? ????НO0ОଠOOOOOОଠଠOoooᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒ???? ???????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ????????Good sh*t) Alright, one of my favorite memes aside, there are some things I want to talk about before we get to the numbers. When trying to decipher which players benefit the most in this format, you have to look for quarterbacks who do one of two things. First and foremost, that’s throw a good amount of touchdowns. Duh… Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, etc. fit that mold. (And yeah, just ignore Sam Bradford, as that’s probably an aberration. Just like his health.) However, don’t dismiss mid-tier quarterbacks that don’t give up interceptions either, even without the gaudy touchdown totals, they could give you an edge. Granted, Aaron Rodgers and the previously mentioned Luck will score the most points in this type of league, that’s obvious. But look at what happens to the value of Philip Rivers with just two extra points. He’s in the top-5 of percentage gainers when you plop them into this format. And if there’s anyone who loves a good Christian plopping, it’s Rivers. Seriously though, him and others on the above table can be hidden gems in a league like this, and something to think about if you’d like to try and wait on this position as part of your strategy.

Now, where to draft these guys…There really isn’t an exact science here on how to draft in a 6-point TD league. Quarterbacks are obviously more valuable, but how much so? A crude representation is to simply take the percentage increase in value, average that out, and apply it to their average draft position. Right now, I have Cam Newton going as the 33rd overall player based on my rankings. If we take the fact that 6-point TD’s raise the value of all quarterbacks by 20.12% (based on the formula I just stated), then that would move him to 26th overall. However, you also have to add in the fact that the 6-point TD also affects running backs and wide receivers equally. Therefore, in terms of drafting, the actual point total shouldn’t affect a QB’s position in your drafts by that much. I say “that much” simply because there is one exception, and that is the fact that while your elite backs and receivers, in a really good year, will provide anywhere from 10-15 touchdowns total, an elite quarterback will net you 35+, even over 40 in a few cases, just another caveat to what is a complicated subject. The bottom line is, moreso than other leagues, you should uptick the elite throwers a bit, while keeping the rest about where they are. But the first point remains, find value when and where you can, and cash in on the players who benefit the most from this category, as shown in the second table.

Like anything, this strategy and the data provided is open to plenty of interpretation, but I hope this gives a general sense of both these formats and helps you draft and strategize in them. Any specific questions, I’m happy to answer below!