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Tony-Romo-Jay-Cutler

Welcome to one of our last strategy sessions of the preseason (I think it’s our last. Besides comparing our rankings with those of ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS… which isn’t really strategy as it is, “haha, look how funny they are at ranking things type of post”). This is probably the biggest draft week (and weekend) in Fantasy Football, and I’m sure there are plenty out there who either play in formats that either start two quarterbacks, or change their touchdown point value from four to six. And in that regard, I bring you a post that should kill two birds with one stone, because ef birds, but also look guys at my profound ability to both have amazing geometric awareness and mind-bending arm dexterity to actually kill a living animal that can fly by bouncing a stone off of both of them!

Want to take on Razzball writers and contributors in the great game of Fantasy Football? For Prizes? OH MY GOD YES. Where do you sign up? Great question! (Even though you didn’t technically ask. I mean, you might have, but I couldn’t hear you…) You can join here!

 

2QB Leagues

So, in the first part of our strategy “session” (or sesh, as some people call it… well, I actually have no idea who uses that term, but it’s there, and we have to deal with it), we are going to go over two-quarterback leagues. (The 6-point TD will be covered below if that’s your thing.) Because having just Tony Romo lead your team to fantasy playoff aspirations until November hits and he spectacularly lets you down is not enough in these leagues. (Mostly because this year he already Romonobyled…) But back to the point, nope, in these formats, we need to add in the potential to both own Tony Romo and Jay Cutler on the same fantasy team, which I heard is the 19th sign of the end of the world. Obama was the 17th and 18th sign on the list, if you were wondering. Yes, that’s right, two-quarterback leagues are really, really different… I can’t stress that enough. Which is why you got two “really’s”. Everything you know about standard and PPR formats gets thrown out the window, as you’ll see the aforementioned Jay Cutler be drafted ahead of a guy like Alshon Jeffery in most of these leagues. That’s a cup of crazy, as they would say. Actually, they wouldn’t say that… I don’t think anyone has ever said that. (Hashtag “cup of crazy” to get that started.) So let’s get you primed for what is going to be the weirdest draft you’ve ever been a part of. Unless it’s a “salamanders in your pants” draft. That would probably top this one.

The format itself is generally easy to grasp. As I stated earlier, you have two QB slots (or a full flex, QB/RB/WR/TE, which should be flexed to the QB slot regardless), and with those slots, you should probably draft two QB’s. (Ya think?) How you determine to fill those spots, and more importantly, when, are the keys to this proverbial car. Unless you want me to start talking about crazy cups again. NEVER AGAIN. (#cupofcrazy.)

There are essentially four approaches you can take here…

Obviously, the first three options are the most recommended here, so unless you are either a professional scout, a mind-reader, or Jimmy Garoppolos mother, the fourth option is really something you should not consider if you’d like to compete in some manner or fashion.

So we’re left with three different ways of getting a quarterback. And though it might sound dull, with the state of QB mid-round depth this season, I usually aim for a top-15/top-15 split. Based on my own 2016 Projections, and to hammer the point even more of how important it is to get your QB’s early, here’s how I see the top-50 fantasy point leaders shaping up in this specific format (0.5-PPR):

Rank Player Pos Team Points
1 Cam Newton QB CAR 334.00
2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 332.90
3 Andrew Luck QB IND 330.20
4 Russell Wilson QB SEA 312.20
5 Drew Brees QB NO 303.80
6 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 291.20
7 Philip Rivers QB SD 280.80
8 Antonio Brown WR PIT 272.70
9 Carson Palmer QB ARI 272.60
10 Blake Bortles QB JAC 268.40
11 Tyrod Taylor QB BUF 267.40
12 Andy Dalton QB CIN 264.20
13 Kirk Cousins QB WAS 258.80
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ 258.50
15 Eli Manning QB NYG 256.50
16 Jameis Winston QB TB 256.10
17 Matt Ryan QB ATL 255.60
18 Derek Carr QB OAK 255.20
19 Julio Jones WR ATL 255.00
20 Matthew Stafford QB DET 253.10
21 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 252.50
22 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 251.70
23 Alex Smith QB KC 247.80
24 Marcus Mariota QB TEN 241.10
25 Joe Flacco QB BAL 239.80
26 Tom Brady QB NE 234.70
27 Jay Cutler QB CHI 234.30
28 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 233.60
29 Jamaal Charles RB KC 232.50
30 Le’Veon Bell RB PIT 228.00
31 A.J. Green WR CIN 224.10
32 Brock Osweiler QB HOU 223.70
33 Jordy Nelson WR GB 214.60
34 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 212.80
35 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 212.60
36 Lamar Miller RB HOU 211.10
37 Teddy Bridgewater QB MIN 209.70
38 Todd Gurley RB LA 207.90
39 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 207.00
40 Dez Bryant WR DAL 206.10
41 David Johnson RB ARI 205.20
42 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 205.20
43 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 201.50
44 Mike Evans WR TB 197.90
45 Brandin Cooks WR NO 197.00
46 Randall Cobb WR GB 196.80
47 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 196.70
48 Mark Ingram RB NO 195.80
49 Allen Robinson WR JAC 193.20
50 Keenan Allen WR SD 192.30

As you can see, Antonio Brown is the only player that even sniffs the top-10 in a league that has so much emphasis at the QB position. Julio Jones is the next player, and he just barely comes in at the top-20. Because of this (and the basic tenants of supply and demand), I have to stress that you go QB/QB in the first two rounds, or, at the very least, QB/RB or WR/QB in the first three. Once you start hitting the fourth round, there will be very few names to pick from, and just looking at the point totals, you’ll be leaving close to 150 or more fantasy points on the table depending on what plays out. That’s something you can ill-afford to do…

 

The 6-Point Touchdown

We always receive plenty of questions about this specific scoring format and I wanted to make sure we had a concrete answers to give. Though, I do prefer wood a bit more. (That’s what she said.) Plus, if a someone asks about this type of format and how it affects scoring, all I have to do is link them to this post. It’s always nice to answer things back in hyperlinks, because blue is a great color, you get a free underline, and you can interact with them! You only get one out of those three when paying $94.00 to go see the Blue Man Group. What. A. Steal. Regardless, we’re here to show data on how a 6-Point Passing Touchdown affects the scoring of your quarterbacks, and how that changes where they sit in the rankings, all based on our 2016 Projections.

Quarterbacks Ranked by the 6-Point Touchdown Format

Rank NAME TD INT 4-PT TD 6-PT TD % Increase
1 Andrew Luck 37 16 330.20 407.62 23.45%
2 Aaron Rodgers 36 7 332.90 404.54 21.52%
3 Cam Newton 28 14 334.00 389.24 16.54%
4 Drew Brees 36 17 303.80 375.22 23.51%
5 Russell Wilson 29 11 312.20 368.04 17.89%
6 Ben Roethlisberger 33 15 291.20 357.42 22.74%
7 Philip Rivers 33 14 280.80 346.22 23.30%
8 Carson Palmer 31 14 272.60 331.42 21.58%
9 Blake Bortles 26 17 268.40 324.62 20.95%
10 Andy Dalton 29 16 264.20 319.62 20.98%
11 Kirk Cousins 28 15 258.80 315.50 21.91%
12 Tyrod Taylor 22 11 267.40 313.98 17.42%
13 Eli Manning 29 16 256.50 312.28 21.75%
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick 25 15 258.50 308.46 19.33%
15 Derek Carr 27 13 255.20 308.30 20.81%
16 Matt Ryan 26 14 255.60 307.48 20.30%
17 Matthew Stafford 27 17 253.10 304.90 20.47%
18 Jameis Winston 24 15 256.10 301.52 17.74%
19 Ryan Tannehill 25 15 252.50 301.38 19.36%
20 Alex Smith 22 9 247.80 290.20 17.11%
21 Joe Flacco 24 15 239.80 288.62 20.36%
22 Tom Brady 27 7 234.70 286.92 22.25%
23 Marcus Mariota 21 13 241.10 283.32 17.51%
24 Jay Cutler 24 15 234.30 282.12 20.41%
25 Brock Osweiler 23 14 223.70 269.12 20.30%
26 Teddy Bridgewater 18 11 209.70 247.30 17.93%
27 Sam Bradford 18 10 173.20 214.98 24.12%
28 Dak Prescott 16 14 180.40 212.42 17.75%
29 Robert Griffin 13 10 177.90 203.80 14.56%
30 Jared Goff 17 14 165.80 198.58 19.77%

Quarterbacks Ranked by Percentage Increased from 4-TD to 6-TD Formats

Rank NAME TD INT 4-PT TD 6-PT TD % Increase
1 Sam Bradford 18 10 173.20 214.98 24.12%
2 Drew Brees 36 17 303.80 375.22 23.51%
3 Andrew Luck 37 16 330.20 407.62 23.45%
4 Philip Rivers 33 14 280.80 346.22 23.30%
5 Ben Roethlisberger 33 15 291.20 357.42 22.74%
6 Tom Brady 27 7 234.70 286.92 22.25%
7 Kirk Cousins 28 15 258.80 315.50 21.91%
8 Eli Manning 29 16 256.50 312.28 21.75%
9 Carson Palmer 31 14 272.60 331.42 21.58%
10 Aaron Rodgers 36 7 332.90 404.54 21.52%
11 Andy Dalton 29 16 264.20 319.62 20.98%
12 Blake Bortles 26 17 268.40 324.62 20.95%
13 Derek Carr 27 13 255.20 308.30 20.81%
14 Matthew Stafford 27 17 253.10 304.90 20.47%
15 Jay Cutler 24 15 234.30 282.12 20.41%
16 Joe Flacco 24 15 239.80 288.62 20.36%
17 Brock Osweiler 23 14 223.70 269.12 20.30%
18 Matt Ryan 26 14 255.60 307.48 20.30%
19 Jared Goff 17 14 165.80 198.58 19.77%
20 Ryan Tannehill 25 15 252.50 301.38 19.36%
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick 25 15 258.50 308.46 19.33%
22 Teddy Bridgewater 18 11 209.70 247.30 17.93%
23 Russell Wilson 29 11 312.20 368.04 17.89%
24 Dak Prescott 16 14 180.40 212.42 17.75%
25 Jameis Winston 24 15 256.10 301.52 17.74%
26 Marcus Mariota 21 13 241.10 283.32 17.51%
27 Tyrod Taylor 22 11 267.40 313.98 17.42%
28 Alex Smith 22 9 247.80 290.20 17.11%
29 Cam Newton 28 14 334.00 389.24 16.54%
30 Robert Griffin 13 10 177.90 203.80 14.56%

Let’s take a look at my boy Philip Rivers for a moment to see how one’s value changes in this format. (???????????????????????????????????????? good sh*t go౦ԁ sH*t???? thats ✔ some good????????sh*t right????????there???????????? right✔there ✔✔if i do ƽaү so my self ???? i say so ???? thats what im talking about right there right there (chorus: ʳᶦᵍʰᵗ ᵗʰᵉʳᵉ) mMMMMᎷМ???? ???????? ????НO0ОଠOOOOOОଠଠOoooᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒ???? ???????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ????????Good sh*t) Alright, one of my favorite memes aside, there are some things I want to talk about before we get to the numbers. When trying to decipher which players benefit the most in this format, you have to look for quarterbacks who do one of two things. First and foremost, that’s throw a good amount of touchdowns. Duh… Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, etc. fit that mold. (And yeah, just ignore Sam Bradford, as that’s probably an aberration. Just like his health.) However, don’t dismiss mid-tier quarterbacks that don’t give up interceptions either, even without the gaudy touchdown totals, they could give you an edge. Granted, Aaron Rodgers and the previously mentioned Luck will score the most points in this type of league, that’s obvious. But look at what happens to the value of Philip Rivers with just two extra points. He’s in the top-5 of percentage gainers when you plop them into this format. And if there’s anyone who loves a good Christian plopping, it’s Rivers. Seriously though, him and others on the above table can be hidden gems in a league like this, and something to think about if you’d like to try and wait on this position as part of your strategy.

Now, where to draft these guys…There really isn’t an exact science here on how to draft in a 6-point TD league. Quarterbacks are obviously more valuable, but how much so? A crude representation is to simply take the percentage increase in value, average that out, and apply it to their average draft position. Right now, I have Cam Newton going as the 33rd overall player based on my rankings. If we take the fact that 6-point TD’s raise the value of all quarterbacks by 20.12% (based on the formula I just stated), then that would move him to 26th overall. However, you also have to add in the fact that the 6-point TD also affects running backs and wide receivers equally. Therefore, in terms of drafting, the actual point total shouldn’t affect a QB’s position in your drafts by that much. I say “that much” simply because there is one exception, and that is the fact that while your elite backs and receivers, in a really good year, will provide anywhere from 10-15 touchdowns total, an elite quarterback will net you 35+, even over 40 in a few cases, just another caveat to what is a complicated subject. The bottom line is, moreso than other leagues, you should uptick the elite throwers a bit, while keeping the rest about where they are. But the first point remains, find value when and where you can, and cash in on the players who benefit the most from this category, as shown in the second table.

Like anything, this strategy and the data provided is open to plenty of interpretation, but I hope this gives a general sense of both these formats and helps you draft and strategize in them. Any specific questions, I’m happy to answer below!

 

 

  1. TTRA1N says:
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    I ended up with R.Wilson/Marcus Mariota/Teddy in my 12 team 2QB 6pt td league. Wow on the 13/10 projections for RG3 I was real bummed I missed him cause my cup auto picked L.Fitz on accident. Think RG3 destroys those projections.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @TTRA1N: Oh most definitely… but my projections tend to be a little conservative, just something to remember.

      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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        @Jay: lotta mccown in there (no i’m not defining “lotta”)

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Crapshoot Kershaw: Yeah, I’ve been manually downgrading a lot of players as the days go by… Mark Sanchez and Kaepernick are a couple of example. They’ll be updated again in a few days as well.

  2. mak says:
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    2 qb standard scoring. 10 person league. i had the 9th pick. can you check this team out.

    Adrian Peterson, MIN
    Carson Palmer, ARI
    Mike Evans, TB
    Philip Rivers, SD
    T.Y. Hilton, IND
    Latavius Murray, OAK
    Jeremy Maclin, KC
    Ryan Tannehill, MIA
    Zach Ertz, PHI
    Jordan Matthews, PHI
    Isaiah Crowell, CLE
    Justin Forsett, BAL
    Michael Crabtree, OAK
    Arizona Cardinals, ARI
    Dan Bailey, DAL

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @mak: I like the 2QB strat here, going with what I consider to be the safest play, two top-15ish starters. Evans and Hilton to round things out. I think you did well!

  3. Nightpandas says:
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    Morning Jay,

    Can you pick 9 of the following as I will need to draft 3 keepers from a mini draft of three new teams in this league I just joined. 12 team .5 ppr 1qb 2 rb 3 wr 1 te 1 ($200 budget, values to kept at below)

    R Wilson 8
    Big Ben 13
    Winston 5
    Brady 12

    Desean Jack 22
    Fitz 18
    D Parker 14
    Hurns 6
    DGB 5
    Rishard Matthews 5

    Barnidge 5

    Ingram 8
    Ryan Matthews 12
    J Charles 69
    Hyde 13
    Crowell 12
    Freeman 10
    Yeldon 28
    Doug Martin 34

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Nightpandas: Out of these guys, I like Ingram, Freeman, and Hurns the most. I think that’s amazing value on all three.

  4. Nightpandas says:
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    Should say 1 flex as well

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Nightpandas: Yeah, Barnidge and Mathews were close, but Hurns snuck in there, just to add.

  5. Michael says:
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    My draft is tonight, PPR and we start 2 QB but only 4 TD per pass.

    How much urgency to get 2 good QB’s? Should I have @ QB’s by the time I get to my fifth pick?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Michael: I tackled these two issues separately, but yeah, you should have both your Quarterbacks before the third round ends.

      • Michael says:
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        @Jay:

        Thanks Jay. I looked at our league draft results from last year and only 3 QB’s went in rounds 1-2. So unless I want one of the big 3 maybe I can go back to back in like rounds 4-5 and get 2 really good QB’s

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Michael: Yep, obviously 2QBs changes the scarcity of the position but ultimately scarcity is different depending on who you are drafting with and what they do. I talked about this in my “Myths” post http://football.razzball.com/tackling-fantasy-football-myths

          I really favor auctions for 2QB leagues in particular though because if you don’t know what your draft room is going to do it’s easy to get shafted in snake.

          • Michael says:
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            @RotoLance:

            Thanks great article!

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Michael: Yeah, if that’s the case, then they don’t know what they are doing in a 2QB league and you can take advantage of that by possibly landing two top-10 QB’s early (read how the draft is going) and cash in at the end of the season.

  6. Ryan says:
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    I’m in a 14 team .5 ppr league. I was just offered todd gurley marvin jones gary barnidge for demaryius thomas jordan reed gio bernard and tevin coleman. Does this trade help me or do i just stay put?

    qb andy dalton
    wr deandre hopkins
    wr keenan allen
    wr demaryius thomas
    rb danny woodhead
    rb giovani bernard
    te jordan reed
    w/r/t arian foster
    bn christine michael
    bn kamar aiken
    bn tevin coleman
    bn tajae sharpe
    bn rgiii
    bn michael thomas
    k steven hauschka
    def jets

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Ryan: I think it helps you… except in the WR area. This scenario sounds familiar… regardless, the Gurley upgrade I think gives balance to the downgrade of DT to Jones… tough to give up Reed here, but I think Barnidge is close enough to make it fair.

  7. Hammer toes says:
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    Hello,

    Would you trade Sammie Coates for Tyrod taylor? 16 team ppr league. I’m loaded at Wr. I have sheppard, Corey coleman, Coates, john brown on my bench to go with marshall, cobb, emmanual sanders. I got stuck with flacco and rg 3 at qb. Make this deal? I like coates as a sleeper in a few weeks.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Hammer toes: Yeah, I’m okay with that trade, and if you need a QB, I’d pull that trigger.

  8. DORIAN says:
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    Jay,
    “A rising tide lifts all boats.”

    There is no discernable weekly increase in value for quarterbacks relative to running backs and wide receivers in 6 point ptd leagues, because the increase is over a season, and weekly results and variance mean that you can find replacement level production just as easily.

    Invest in wr/b as usual, don’t over think the 6 point ptd.

    https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/5712/your-fantasy-football-draft-strategy-shouldn-t-change-in-leagues-with-6-points-per-touchdown-pass

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @DORIAN: Yeah, Dorian, I have to say, I had tunnel vision and only was thinking of QB’s by themselves. I’m going to actually change my analysis because this is a very good point that I didn’t even bother thinking about.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @DORIAN: Yeah that’s a great post that I mostly agree with. People overrate the difference between 4 and 6 point leagues. I will tell you though that I played in a 6 point TD league and I always did well be identifying the elite level QB that isn’t going for an elite level price. And the difference between a 6 point passing TD league and Standard is you get just a little extra out of the elite level TD there. But it’s not a huge difference. I think the difference seems bigger psychologically because you are seeing consistent 25+ point performances out of your 6pt elite QB, but yeah other QBs have their value raised too. I know every year when a QB goes off in 6pt passing TDs like Peyton Manning did most recently, Aaron Rodgers before that, Tom Brady before that and Peyton Manning again before that the team with that QB is guaranteed to make the playoffs. However that was probably true in 4pt TD leagues as well.

      But part of the story that wasn’t covered in that numberfire post is what happens when your QB does go off for 45+ TDs and how much that helps you. And by taking an elite QB you give yourself a better shot at that.

      I’m actually still a little skeptical of the number fire post however, I’m not sure I’m completely on board with the “weekly” argument but it is a great argument to make. But the main problem I have is with his streaming strategy, It’s a great strategy. But it’s hardly ever done in my experience.

      I had a pretty good take on this last year:
      http://football.razzball.com/6-point-passing-td

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @RotoLance: I should clarify what I mean about the numberfire post not taking into account a huge season… The projections based approach it uses (in the initial section for instance) doesn’t consider the massive upside those elite QBs have. It might not properly express the range of outcomes.

        I’ll also clarify that my strategy in 6pt passing TD was often to take an elite level QB in round 3 (that’s how I nabbed Tom Brady his record setting year) particularly if they were coming off a bad year. But I think the reason it worked so well as a strategy also had to do with the volatility of the RBs taken in the same area. By taking an elite QB I was protecting myself from having taken an RB bust. Now that we are at least smarter about drafting more WRs early it’s less of a valid strategy.

        • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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          @RotoLance: i know last year in a 6 pt league where i had Luck the only reason i was competitive at ALL was that i lucked in bortles right when he was going crazy. top 6 QB’s in 6 pt TD’s are quite useful to have. now that doesn’t mean when you draft a top 6 QB he ends up a top 6 QB of course. Rodgers wasn’t last year. Luck neither.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Crapshoot Kershaw: Yeah like I said, I like to take the elite guys coming off of bad years in 6pt TD. The price otherwise is too expensive. I’ve never really even considered taking a QB in the 1st and that’s in about 12 years of my home league being that format.

            Good analysis by the way.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Crapshoot Kershaw: I think when we are taking an elite QB early (ish) we aren’t hoping for a top 6 QB, we are hoping for a huge #1 overall player season. Because there is always that upside.

  9. Rice says:
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    Looks like Bridgwater just went down in practice with a possibly serious non-contact knee injury.

    How far should we move Diggs down the rankings?

    Any effect to AP?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Rice: Just saw that, I’m going to wait a little bit to see what goes on, but this could move him back a bit. I will be updating rankings late tonight once I get a handle on it. “Adrian Peterson, Matt Asiata and Adam Thielen locked arms in prayer huddled over prone Bridgewater, who clutched left knee and never moved.” So yeah, honestly, this could change things.

      • Rice says:
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        @Jay: Speaking Tuesday, Vikings coach Mike Zimmer confirmed Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury is “significant.”

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Rice: I’m a Vikings fan and this is just terrifying for us.

          Fantasy wise the weird thing about Diggs is he was already so underrated. I mean arguably. I’d make that argument. I don’t think people are building in enough regression to the mean in the passing volume. They were 32nd last year so you expect that to come up a bit, but at the same time it wasn’t accident, they are in fact below average in passing volume.

          Anyway the point is Diggs was already so low due in part to volume concerns so maybe he only moves down about a round?

          I think changes in RB value due to a QB change are often exaggerated.

          • Rice says:
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            @RotoLance: good points. thanks!

            • RotoLance

              RotoLance says:
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              @Rice: All that was assuming Teddy is gone for the year of course. Which is a mighty big, yet I feel, a relatively safe assumption.

            • Jay

              Jay says:
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              @Rice: Yeah, I’ve removed Bridgewater from my rankings and added Shaun Hill to die on. Eeeesh. I slightly downgraded Diggs and the other WRs, but actually moved AP up a bit.

              • RotoLance

                RotoLance says:
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                @Jay: Smart to move AP up. I just remembered something obvious to us Vikings fans. Teddy likes to play out of the shotgun, that’s where he’s best. That’s where AP is worst. That shouldn’t be a problem for AP anymore, they won’t run plays out of the shotgun except in those obvious passing situations where any team would. Last year there was sort of a push-pull thing going on as far as how many plays they would run out of each formation.

  10. Scott says:
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    Hi Jay. Which one of these RB stashes should I drop in an RCL?
    Ajayi
    Sproles
    Ware
    Starks

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @Scott: gotta be one of starks/sproles. technically projections say ware, but if this RBBC news out of KC is real i’d think that moves west up the most, ware some. ajayi is likeliest starter of that group, so can’t be him.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Scott: Hmm, I think Ware is the weakest link here… only because McCarthy seems to have a thing for Starks.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @Jay: I don’t see how Sproles has the upside. He’s 150 touches in a best case scenario for him.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @RotoLance: I think Frank Reich will use him a bit more, and it’s a PPR format, I like him on the bench here.

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Jay: Yeah I guess half PPR makes him somewhat worthwhile. He has plenty of upside in full PPR.

  11. Rondo says:
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    I was going to say something about “that’s not what they meant at Vikings practice when they told Teddy to take a knee” but I thought t might be too soon. I do hope he makes a full recovery. Has his whole career ahead of him.

    All that being said, how you ranking them in a .5PPR after all of the news the last 3 weeks (Teddy out, Romo down, Green knee tweak, Bell 3 games out, etc.,)?

    A.J. Green
    Elliot
    Peterson
    Bell
    Bryant
    K. Allen
    J. Charles

    Thanks.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Rondo: He took enough for two knees. I’d probably keep Green as is there until we know more… but I’d probably skip him overall if I’m drafting tonight, just let someone deal with the uncertainty, then Peterson, Elliot, Bryant, then Bell.

      • Rondo says:
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        @Jay: There is one more wrinkle to this. My keepers are Allen Robinson and Mike Evans. We can start 4WR and are only required to start 1RB.

        If Green is NOT available, do I still go AP or grab a WR since 4 can be started?

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Rondo: Hmm, that is a wrinkle. I might go WR here. Yeah, I think I would…

  12. I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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    in a 14 team super flex i have picks at 6th, 20th, 34th, 48th, 62nd if i drop d.adams and ellington.
    QB palmer (dropping hoyer/keenum/foles, yeah real life rosters hurt me)
    RB gurley/hyde/woodhead/coleman (dropped denard R, ellington, start 2)
    WR green/dez/cooks/marvin jones (dropped d.adams, start 2)
    TE j.thomas/walker (start 1)
    1 regular flex (TE/WR/RB)
    1 super flex
    K mcmanus
    DEF MIN
    2 IR slots (and yahoo’s made these more accurate, anybody missing a game can slot into, like espn already does, yahoo being the inbred cousin who learns to tie his shoes at age 14)
    1. agree that i should drop d.adams?
    2. it’s 15 yds receiving and rushing per point, only 25 per throwing yard AND super flex.
    so i’m guessing i gotta go elliot (he won’t be there at 6) but is this about the best QB order for these: prescott/goff/wentz/lynch/siemian/hill/g.smith/garrapololo/sanchize/mccown (i’m going off this year’s QB rankings, since dynasty ones didn’t include the MIN/DAL/DEN situations being changed). it’s pretty obvious at 6th overall i have to go QB in this league. and probably again at 34th if any of those above are around, maybe even 20th. palmer is old as F.

    3. i’m going by dynasty rankings, but they are in PPR, so how should i adjust this (just a general rule, not for each guy of course):
    elliot/all those QB’s/the BIG 4 dynasty WR’s/henry/thomas/caroo/dixon/fuller/perkins/booker/boyd/coates/prosise/
    k.wright/mitchell/t.smith/smallwood/washington (OAK)/d.adams/
    drake/j.williams (BUF)/thompson/ellington (and so on),
    but that would get me through pick 34 (and i’ll have like 5 days after keepers are due to rank the other dropped players in that list).
    something like “move the RB’s up X spots” or some such.

    • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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      @I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail: thinking being you kinda need at least 4 QB’s that either start already or could (or won’t but eventually could actually be good, so a longer term version of “could”). ideally at least 3 starters. probably no way in hell i get 2 of the ones who’ll keep jobs even if using picks 6 and 20 though. (i’m making assumption sanchize/foles/keenum/g.smith/garrapppololo and to lesser extent mccown/hill don’t have much chance of keeping jobs, if they even get them). last year i had at least 3 at different times.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail: crap, looking at what might only be dropped (no way to know), the best of it might be mckinnon/blue/v.cruz/k.williams/randle/bolden/hillman/ (maybe t.west), so i’m probably having to keep d.adams (so no pick at 62nd), and maybe even ellington (so no pick at 48th), then still grab the 2 QB and just best player with the other one. ugly decision on ellington, 3rd string RB. projections (even for standard) and dynasty list have d.adams higher.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Honestly, I have no idea what to do with Ellington here. I’d still like hold on in this format, but how long can you wait? It’s been years now where the hype has been a let down. The ceiling is lower, but if he puts in some games…

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail: 1) Yeah, I think it’s an okay drop. 2) Yeah, I’ll update those dynasty rankings in a few days, that’s actually a great job reminding me. But I like how you have them ranked, Prescott has the easiest path to a lot of starts. 3) I would probably move any receivers and pass-catching running backs down about, 5-10 spots outside the top-10. For example, a guy like Brown will still be a number one pick in any format. But Allen Robinson? Probably move him five spots down.

      • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor and $6000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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        @Jay: i don’t have to worry about top any position, only guys around were the ones listed. we keep up to 16 players each team (14 teams). my only decision is whether to keep d.adams or ellington or draft at 48th and/or 62nd. keepers due in about 9 hours. and if i’m reading that right you’d rather keep ellington than adams (or just both, which is what i’m thinking NOW, that i’ve seen just how ugly the dropped, available players could be for me to get at pick 48). projections for just this year alone (standard ones) have d.adams higher by a non negligible amount

  13. Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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    don’t remember if you did that handy chart last year for 2 QB leagues, but DAMN, only a.brown and julio made the top 21. having done some of those, they tend to not draft THAT extreme, but they probably SHOULD. last year at pick 2 (this was dynasty as well) i went rodgers/forte/forehead (with assumption that forehead just had a top TEN year left in him, i also had no idea how he’d possibly fall to pick 26 in a 12 team 2 QB league at the time, so got flustered when he was there)

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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      @Crapshoot Kershaw: and went forte since RB’s were going off faster than WR’s, even though it was PPR. i could’ve been in worse shape exiting the 3rd round with no RB and a slightly better WR. still got edelman/allen/d-jax as starters in that (with jordy stashed).

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Crapshoot Kershaw: I believe I did, and I don’t remember it being that extreme. But I think it’s because running backs, top tier ones, were a bit more steady. And I think you correctly drafted there.

  14. Derrick says:
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    Thoughts on this team I just drafted?

    1st (8) WR Allen Robinson
    2nd (17) WR Alshon Jeffrey
    3rd (32) TE Jordan Reed
    4th (41) WR Donte Moncrief
    5th (56) RB Frank Gore
    6th (65) RB Arian Foster
    7th (80) WR DeSean Jackson
    8th (89) RB LaGaratte Blount
    9th (104) QB Phillip Rivers
    10th (113) RB Jeremy Hill (KEEPER)
    11th (128) TE Tyler Eifert
    12th (137) WR Markus Wheaton
    13th (152) QB Andy Dalton
    14th (161) RB Latavius Murray (KEEPER)
    15th (176) Jets D

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Derrick: Is it PPR? I’m assuming it is, and I think you did well to wait on RBs there, you should be okay. Love the receivers you got, and with Hill and Murray, the Foster and Gore picks should be safe.

  15. justin says:
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    what you think about this team. 2 QB league. 10 players.

    QBPhilip RiversSD
    QBJameis WinstonTB
    RBDavid JohnsonARI
    RBFrank GoreIND
    WRDeAndre HopkinsHOU
    WRRandall CobbGB
    TEJordan ReedWAS
    FLXEric DeckerNYJ
    DSTNew York JetsNYJ
    KStephen GostkowskiNE
    BNRyan TannehillMIA
    BNRashad JenningsNYG
    BNMichael CrabtreeOAK
    BNCharles SimsTB
    BNSterling ShepardNYG

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @justin: Love RIvers in these leagues, that’s for sure. Winston paired with him should be just fin, especially when you land a guy like Johnson at the RB and Hopkins at the WR. Well done. Love the Cobb pick too.

  16. BAC says:
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    2QB, 4 pt QB TD, 1.0 PPR league.

    Have the first pick (Newton, Wilson will be gone with keepers) and am keeping Beckham Jr. for an 11th round pick.

    Two questions:

    Who should I take for the additional keeper among the choices below? I think it has to be Carr right?
    Carr – 9th round
    Langford 10th round
    Rawls 10th round
    Gordon 10th round
    Parker 10th round
    K White 10th round

    Then, should I go with Brown, Luck or Rodgers with first pick? Leaning towards Brown

    Thank you!

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @BAC: I think it’s Carr… but who’s available there? I’d really want to hold onto Rawls there… You could hold Rawls and go Rodgers. Hate to lose on Brown, but that iteration might be pretty good too.

      • BAC says:
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        @Jay: Part of it is I have to guess on the keepers a little bit. I’m projecting Bortles, Newton, Big Ben, Taylor and Cousins/Luck and Wilson/ Winston to be gone so I wanted to keep Carr but I can just take two at the turn if any are left. Maybe leave me with a Dalton/Manning turn so I would have Brown, Rawls, Beckham, Dalton, Manning? I’m finding Rodgers tough to pull the trigger on since he was the 11th best QB in this league last year but maybe I need to look past that.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
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          @BAC: Yeah, I’m actually okay with that scenario. You don’t necessarily need to look past it, but I think Rawls fits your team the best here.

  17. omar says:
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    Thoughts on this trade. 12 team 1pt PPR:

    Give:
    Gronk
    Edelman
    Forte

    Get:
    Julio
    Lat Murray

    Eifert is on the wire. Would mix and match waiver wire best available TE based on matchups until his return. Too much to give up for Julio?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @omar: I think it’s a little too much. I like the players you’re getting back, but I think Edelman is what throws the trade in their favor. Especially in a PPR.

  18. Dave says:
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    Hi Jay miss your stuff! Just drafted this 2qb PPR team what do you think?
    Rivers
    Cousins
    Keenan
    TY Hilton
    Jarvis Landry
    David Johnson
    CJ Anderson
    Gates
    Flex – Jordan Matthews
    With Derrick Henry, Desean and Tajae Sharpe, RG3 on the bench

    • Dave says:
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      @Dave: Also have Gio on the bench I must add

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Dave: Hey Dave! I really love this team. Could be the Chargers… but it’s a great QB setup in this format, your WRs are strong, I’m hyped about Landry, but CJ Anderson does make me a little nervous. But overall I think it’s a great team.

  19. Frank White says:
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    Jay wutup my man!! I just drafted my PPR 12 team league, 3 reciever… Can i get your honest advise? Lol
    Brees
    Allen Robinson
    moncrief
    E sanders
    freeman
    blount
    J reed
    V jackson
    gostkowsi
    new england (who cares cause i stream my Defense
    BENCH –
    I Crowell
    T Colemen
    L Treadwell
    M Thomas NO WR
    P dorsett
    T Hightower
    Thanks Buddy!!! Be harsh if you want but i was trying to go by your rankings and i got out picked a pick or 2 before my turn..Lol

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @Frank White: What up! Honestly, I like this team. I think your weakest spot is the bench, but I think you have enough here with ARob and Sanders to be okay. I like that Thomas pick, I think he’s the sleeper on your team. And I think Blount is being a bit undervalued right now.

      • Frank White says:
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        Thanks buddy.. When i find more players that are better on the wire, i got the 2nd waiver pick, who should i drop off the bench?? Thanks Man and Good Luck this year!!

  20. Josh says:
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    I have a unique league where we start 2 QB’s but the flex can only have a QB for 6 weeks. Same goes for WR and RB, etc. Obviously this decreases the importance of picking QB’s early in the draft and I have Russel Wilson as a keeper in Round 5. It s a 4pt TD league.

    Do I still reach for a second QB in round 1 or 2 with it only being a 6 week flex spot?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      Yeah, that’s kinda random. In that case, probably not, I would aim for something in the third or fourth probably, and try again in the seventh, depending on the draft trends…

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