Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish	Total
1	22
2	12
3	11
4+	29
Grand Total	74

 

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Marquise Brown

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

Marquise Brown vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	25	3.4	48	0.5	9.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage	3	4.3	3.7	0	4.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Marquise Brown hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in 2020 only getting the followed once back in week 2 by Bradley Roby. In that game Brown caught 5 receptions for 42 yards with no scores. In three career games in shadow coverage Brown has yet to top 50 yards in any game. This has led to his career PPG to be just under 5 in .5 PPR.

Week 16 Recommendation – Sit

This week Marquise Brown will square off vs. Giants top CB James Bradberry. Bradberry so far in 2020 has faced 8 WRs in shadow coverage holding them to a combined 8.4 PPG in .5 PPR. This includes holding D.K. Metcalf (5-80), Amari Cooper (2-23) and Allen Robinson (3-33) well below their season averages in 2020. Granted Brown is coming off four straight productive games but this matchup vs. James Bradberry makes him a fade in week 16.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,200 / DK $5,700

Marquise Brown is listed as a top 24 WR on each site making him a DFS fade for week 16. Notable players in the same price range I would pivot to include Jarvis Landry vs. NYJ and Cole Beasley vs. NE.

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: Amari Cooper

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	30	5.7	76.1	0.5	13.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage	15	4.4	57.5	0.4	10.3
vs. Darius Slay	1	3	38	0	5.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

In 2020 Cooper has only faced two shadow coverage matchups. This includes a week 5 matchup vs. James Bradberry where he went for 2-23 and in week 14 he faced William Jackson and found the end zone securing 4-51-1. This dip in production isn’t just from 2020 as in his career he has scored nearly 3 points per game less vs. shadow coverage.

Week 16 Recommendation – Sit

This week Cooper gets a rematch vs. the Eagles and Darius Slay. Earlier this year Slay left the game early vs. Cooper only playing on 33% of the team’s snaps. Even with Slay out, Cooper didn’t do much in the game vs. the Eagles only catching 1 pass for 5 yards. Prior to this season Slay and Cooper squared off when Slay was in Detroit and in that game Slay got the best of Cooper only allowing 3 receptions for 38 yards. Overall, it doesn’t seem like the Slay Bells are ringing for Cooper so he’s probably best left of benches in week 16.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $6,600 / DK $5,700

Amari Cooper is priced as a top 24 WR on both sites which is right in line with how he has performed this season. However, based on his production vs. shadow coverage you are banking on a TD to get any value for him in week 16. This is hard to bank on which is why I would pivot to Russell Gage vs. KC or Sammy Watkins vs. ATL.

 

Team: Seattle Seahawks

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams

WR1: D.K. Metcalf

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jalen Ramsey

 

D.K. Metcalf vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	19	4.6	71	0.7	13.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage	11	4.1	70.4	0.4	11.3
Vs. Jalen Ramsey	2	4	53	0	7.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

D.K. Metcalf has been as dominate as they come in 2020 lighting up most of his competition on his way to a top 5 WR finish. However, there has been notable exceptions which includes a 2-28 performance vs. Jalen Ramsey earlier this year. Metcalf hasn’t been his usual self vs. Ramsey but did have a solid performance back in 2019 where he secured 6-78.

Week 16 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

To say Metcalf will be his usual WR1 self in week 16 is insane as he has yet to top 50 yards when facing top CBS like Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson. However, Metcalf has proven to be able to win enough in these matchups to justify him as a start in week 16. This is clear by his career 11.3 PPG when in shadow coverage which is still good for low-end WR2 numbers.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,700 / DK $7,800

D.K. Metcalf is priced as a top 7 option on both sites which based on his career performances vs. Jalen Ramsey makes him a complete fade in week 16. Players I would pivot to include Allen Robinson vs. JAX and Robert Woods vs. SEA.

 

Team: Buffalo Bills

Opponent: New England

WR1: Stefon Diggs

Shadow Coverage Matchup: J.C. Jackson

Stefon Diggs vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	36	6.5	82.8	0.4	14.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage	9	4.4	58.1	0.6	11.4

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Ironically the last time these two teams met Stephon Gilmore was out for that game as well. This led to solid day for Stefon Diggs catching 6 balls for 92 yards. This season Diggs has seen shadow coverage in just 1 matchup overall which was Patrick Peterson in week 10. In that game Diggs did his thing securing 10 receptions for 93 yards a score.

Week 16 Recommendation – Start

Diggs has been nearly automatic all year being inside the top 3 in the NFL in targets, receptions, and yards on the season. This week shouldn’t be any different as the Patriots will be down top DB Stephon Gilmore. Does Bill know that he needs to takeaway Diggs…yes but can he probably not. Therefore we should all keep rolling with Diggs in week 16.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,000

This game is played on Monday night so if you want to play Diggs you would need to include that game. Personally, I am not going out of my way to get Diggs into my lineups as even though he is a strong season long start his top 5 price point on each site is too rich for my blood. Players I would pivot to include Allen Robinson vs. JAX and Robert Woods vs. SEA.