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In this article, we are going to look at how players perform the season after a major injury. The injuries in this study include ACLs, Achilles, Ankle Fractures, and Lisfranc injuries.  For this study, we reviewed positional ADP vs. positional PPG finish to see if players returned value the year after a major injury. Furthermore, for a player to qualify for the study they had to have an ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator the year after a major injury occurred. The list of players that we compiled for this study was collected from fantasyinjuryteam.com.

 

Historical Data

 

Player

Injury

Year of Injury

ADP

Finish

Difference

Cole Beasley

Ankle Fracture

2020

62

40

22

Cooper Kupp

ACL

2018

19

4

15

Le’Veon Bell

Lisfranc

2013

14

1

13

Jimmy Garoppolo

ACL

2018

21

14

7

Julian Edelman

ACL

2017

29

22

7

TJ Hockenson

Ankle Fracture

2019

14

8

6

Tyler Lockett

Ankle Fracture

2016

62

56

6

Joe Burrow

ACL

2020

13

8

5

Dallas Goedert

Ankle Fracture

2020

10

9

1

Emmanuel Sanders

Achilles

2018

33

33

0

Dak Prescott

Ankle Fracture

2020

6

7

-1

Julio Jones

Lisfranc

2013

5

6

-1

Deshaun Watson

ACL

2017

2

4

-2

Ronnie Brown

Lisfranc

2009

24

26

-2

Hunter Henry

ACL

2018

6

9

-3

Chris Thompson

Ankle Fracture

2017

40

45

-5

Maurice Jones-Drew

Lisfranc

2012

16

21

-5

Courtland Sutton

ACL

2020

35

44

-9

Amari Cooper

Ankle Fracture

2020

15

27

-12

Allen Robinson

ACL

2017

25

39

-14

Odel Beckham Jr.

Ankle Fracture

2017

3

17

-14

Carson Wentz

ACL

2017

8

23

-15

Marcus Mariota

Ankle Fracture

2016

8

23

-15

Derek Carr

Ankle Fracture

2016

6

24

-18

Will Fuller

ACL

2018

34

53

-19

Dalvin Cook

ACL

2017

11

30

-19

Ameer Abdullah

Lisfranc

2016

23

42

-19

Demaryius Thomas

Achilles

2018

62

83

-21

Saquon Barkley

ACL

2020

9

30

-21

Darren McFadden

Lisfranc

2011

4

25

-21

Michael Crabtree

Achilles

2013

22

46

-24

Preston Williams

ACL

2019

52

77

-25

Marlon Mack

Achilles

2020

62

89

-27

Odell Beckham

ACL

2020

27

55

-28

Alshon Jeffery

Lisfranc

2019

53

148

-95

Average

23.9

33.9

-10.1

 

The chart above shows that 25 of the 35 players in the sample saw a negative outcome regarding their positional ADP vs. positional PPG finish. That means 71% of players end up not returning value vs. their positional ADP the year after a major injury. To dive deeper, 17 of the 35 (49%) failed to hit their ADP by 10 spots. That 49% rate is 20% higher than players who met or exceeded their positional ADP (29%) the year after one of these injuries.  

When reviewing by position, RBs seemed to be the most impacted as 89% did not return value the year after these injuries. This is 17% higher than the next highest group (QBs). The next category that stood out was positional ADP. Players drafted inside the top 12 at their position failed to meet their ADP 92% of the time. This drops to 76% for players drafted inside the top 18 at their position and 73% for players drafted inside the top 24. The final key piece was the type of injury. Lisfranc topped the list at 86% of players failing to meet their positional ADP the year after that injury.

 

2022 Fantasy Football Relevant Players Impacted by Injury

 

Player

Pos

Team

Injury

Positional ADP

Overall ADP

Cam Akers

RB

LAR

Achilles

16

31

Travis Etienne

RB

JAC

Lisfranc

20

43

J.K. Dobbins

RB

BAL

ACL

23

50

Chris Godwin

WR

TB

ACL

27

63

Robert Woods

WR

TEN

ACL

48

109

Michael Gallup

WR

DAL

ACL

56

127

James Robinson

RB

JAC

Achilles

46

134

Jameson Williams

WR

DET

ACL

59

136

D.J. Chark

WR

DET

Ankle Fracture

64

147

Jameis Winston

QB

NO

ACL

20

153

Gus Edwards

RB

BAL

ACL

53

153

Robert Tonyan Jr.

TE

GB

ACL

21

163

Logan Thomas

TE

WAS

ACL

26

188

 

The Case For Players Who Can Buck The Trend

Player: Cam Akers

Injury: Achilles

Time of Injury: Preseason

The timing of Cam Akers’ Injury and his late-season return in 2021 makes it likely for him to buck the trend.  Pro Football Doc on sicscore.com says he has a great chance to return to form and has him at nearly 90% heading into 2022. The Rams gave Akers over 15 carries a game in their playoff run so it’s hard to fade a workhorse back in a high-powered offense. We should watch his positional ADP as he is currently sitting at RB16. If he starts creeping into the top 12, we might need to start fading him at that cost.

 

Player: Travis Etienne

Injury: Lisfranc

Time of Injury: Preseason

Travis Etienne is another RB that should benefit from the timing of his injury. It helps that fellow RB James Robinson is coming off an Achilles injury that occurred nearly 5 months after Etienne. Even though this injury isn’t ideal for an RB like Etienne, Le’Veon Bell was able to top the RB charts in 2014 after his injury in the preseason of 2013.  Doug Pederson’s propensity to divvy up RB touches might cap Etienne’s ceiling, but his passing game chops should make him a solid RB2.

To see where the latest ADP is for Travis Etienne and Cam Akers check out the Razzball ADP Tool!

Conclusion

There doesn’t seem to be much upside in drafting players the year after these major injuries. Outside of Le’Veon Bell in 2013 and Cooper Kupp in 2018, none of the other players featured in the study beat their ADP and were a big-time fantasy football contributor that season. Now targeting these players mid-season could be a solid strategy as fantasy owners get impatient with a slower start. However, when it comes to attacking these players in drafts, it might be best to pivot in 2022.

Sources: Razzball, Player Profiler, RotoHeat, Fantasy Pros, Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Spotrac, Overthecap, Ourlads, Bestball 10s, Underdog Fantasy, Sleeper, Yahoo, ESPN and NFC