NFL Week 12 Takeaways

I am grateful for the opportunity Razzball has given me to share my takeaways with you this season. Writing about fantasy football has been a dream come true for me. I want to give a shoutout to everyone at Razzball!

To all the readers, I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving with your loved ones and enjoyed some delicious food while watching football.

For Week 12, I will only be focusing on Sunday’s games. So, without further ado, let’s take a look at my Week 12 takeaways.

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Jaguars at Texans

The legend of Zay Jones continues to grow in Jacksonville as Trevor Lawrence threw for a season-high 364 yards with one passing touchdown,  a 2-point conversion, and a rushing touchdown. Calvin Ridley led the receiving group with five catches for 89 yards and one TD. Ridley dropped a TD. Christian Kirk also went for 89 receiving yards on four catches on seven targets. The Jags TEs accounted for 13 targets, as Evan Engram tallied five grabs for 49 yards. I expected more going up against the fifth-friendliest defense to TEs. Travis Etienne Jr. rushed 20 times for 56 yards and caught four passes for 30 yards.

C.J. Stroud did everything to give his team a chance to win, completing 26/36 for 304 yards with two TDs while rushing for 47 yards and one TD. He has now thrown for at least 300 yards in four consecutive games and leads the NFL with six games over 300 passing yards. Stroud looks like a waiver wire league winner at his current pace and doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

Nico Collins paced Houston with seven receptions for 104 yards with one touchdown on nine targets. Tank Dell caught five balls for 50 yards and one TD.

Devin Singletary led the Texans’ running back room with six carries for 18 yards and six catches for 54 yards. Dameon Pierce returned but was a non-factor, with five carries for 14 yards.

Takeaway:

• Next up for the Jags is a Monday Night Showdown against the Bengals, who made the Steelers offense look good. Cincinnati’s pass defense allows the 12th-most points to QBs, ninth to WRs, and fourth to TEs. RBs average over 90 rushing yards per game, which is 10^th most in the NFL. I expect the Jags to showcase a balanced offense, which should allow everyone to eat. Start your Jags with confidence. 
• The Texans will host the Broncos, who still allow the most yards and points to RBs after their disastrous Week 3 game against the Dolphins. There was even a split between the RBs against Jacksonville, but Singletary offers the highest ceiling, so I am most comfortable plugging him into a lineup. Denver allows the 10th-most points to QBs, so look for Stroud to have his fifth consecutive game with 300 yards as Dell and Collins will flirt with WR1 & WR2 numbers.

Buccaneers at Colts

Jonathan Taylor shouldered the Colts with 15 carries for 91 yards and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay, who allowed the second-fewest points to RBs this season and were one of two teams who had not allowed a rushing TD to an RB. Michael Pittman Jr. posted 10 receptions for 107 yards on 13 targets. Josh Downs drew another 13 targets, finishing with five grabs for 43 yards. Gardner Minshew finished as a top-10 QB with 251 passing yards and one rushing TD.

The Bucs were paced by Baker Mayfield, who completed 20/30 for 199 yards with two touchdowns and one interception despite an ankle injury. Rachaad White rushed 15 times for a season-high 100 yards and caught two passes for 10 yards. This was White’s first 100 rushing game this season, and he was one of four RBs to rush over 100 yards in Week 12. Over the past month, White has been the second-most valuable RB behind Christian McCaffrey. Mike Evans was targeted nine times, securing six passes for 70 yards and a Week 12-high two receiving scores. Evans was the WR1 for Week 12.

Takeaway:  

• The surprising 6-5 Colts will travel to the Music City in what should be an ugly game. The Titans are most vulnerable on outside to WRs, allowing the eighth-most points. Pittman Jr. and Downs look to be solid plays. Tennessee has allowed over 100 rushing yards in five out of their last six games, which gives me a glimpse that JT will be in the RB2 discussion.
• Tampa Bay will host the Panthers in Week 13, who allow the second-most points to RBs, which will keep White busy early and often. To my surprise, the Panthers pass defense offers the fifth-fewest to WRs and ninth-fewest to QBs. Baker could struggle, but Evans has been on a tear as the fourth-best WR over the last four weeks, so he’s the only pass catcher I would start from the Bucs. 

Saints at Falcons

The training wheels are slowly starting to come off Bijan Robinson, and it’s glorious. Robinson rushed 16 times for 91 yards with a rushing TD and secured three passes on six targets for 32 yards and a receiving TD. Desmond Ridder was under center following the Falcons’ bye, completing 13/21 for 168 yards with one TD, two interceptions, and 30 rushing yards. Drake London is the only viable receiving option on this offense, as he caught five passes for 91 yards.

All of the Saints’ points came from the kicking game in Week 12. Kickers, man. Derek Carr was 24/38 for 304 yards and one pick. Chris Olave was targeted nine times, securing seven passes for 114 yards in just three quarters. Olave sustained a concussion and was ruled out. Alvin Kamara rushed 15 times for 69 yards and caught four passes for 50 yards.

Takeaway:     

• New Orleans will host the Lions, who are coming off a bad loss on Thanksgiving to the Packers. Detroit allows the eight-most points to QBs and the 10th-most to WRs. Carr should be forced to throw a ton. If Olave misses this game, look for Rashid Shaheed to be more involved. I want to say Kamara will be involved in the passing game, but the Lions allow the seventh-fewest receptions to RBs and sixth-fewest total points to RBs. This has the makings of a Taysom Hill game.
• Next up for the Falcons is a matchup against the Jets in New York. The Jets allow the eight-most points to RBs, which is the Falcons’ strength as they are third in rushing attempts this season. Fire up, Robinson! I am not confident in Atlanta’s passing attack with Ridder, so I am not looking to start any pass catcher if I can help it. 

Chiefs at Raiders

Not to get carried away, but it appears Patrick Mahomes found his future WR1 in Rashee Rice. Rice posted eight grabs for a season-high 107 yards and one touchdown on a team-high 10 targets. Mahomes completed 27/34 for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Kelce caught six balls for 91 yards. Isiah Pacheco had the backfield to himself with Jerrick McKinnon out, contributing 15 carries for 55 yards with two rushing TDs and caught five passes for 34 yards.

Josh Jacobs had his second 100-yard rushing game of the season, finishing with 20 carries for 110 yards and a 63-yard rushing score. Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams each drew a team-high seven targets. Meyers finished with six catches for 79 yards with one TD and Adams caught five balls for 73 yards.

Takeaway:

• The Chiefs will travel to Lambeau for Sunday Night Football. Green Bay allows the eighth-fewest points to QBs and sixth-fewest to WRs. We’ll see how they hold up against Mahomes on National Television. The Packers allow the 11th-most points to RBs. Pacheco should be featured in this one, as he has averaged nearly 17 carries per game over his last three games.
• Las Vegas has a Week 13 bye and will face the Vikings in Week 14.

Bills at Eagles

In the clash of the best dual-threat QBs, Jalen Hurts came out on top in OT and was QB2 for Week 2. Hurts was 18/31 for 200 yards with three touchdowns and rushed 14 times for 65 yards with two rushing TDs, including the game-winning rushing score. DeVonta Smith led the Eagles’ WRs with seven catches for 106 yards and one TD on eight targets. A.J. Brown drew a team-high nine targets, catching five for 37 yards and one score. D’Andre Swift rushed 14 times for 80 yards and caught one pass for four yards.

Josh Allen was the QB1 of Week 12 in his OT defeat. Allen completed 29/51 for 339 yards with two passing TDs and rushed nine times for 81 yards with two rushing TDs. We got the good Gabe Davis this week, who caught six passes for a team-high 105 yards and one TD on 12 targets. This was the second time Davis has seen double-digit targets and his first since Week 9. Stefon Diggs drew 11 targets, securing six passes for 74 yards and one TD. James Cook saw seven targets, catching six for 57 yards and rushing 16 times for 43 yards. The Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points to RBs and the Bills RBs group rushed 31 times for 92 yards.   

Takeaway:  

• Philadelphia will host the 49ers after a tough three-game stretch against Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo. San Francisco allows the second-fewest to QBs and has yet to allow a QB rushing score. I suspect that changes next week with the tush-push. The Niners are third-best against RBs from a fantasy perspective, so lower expectations for Swift. Their one weakness is to wideouts, so expect Brown and Smith to be heavily targeted.
• Buffalo has a Week 13 bye and will face the Chiefs in Week 14.

Notables:

• Kyren Williams returned from his ankle injury and finished as RB1 in Week 12 with 16 carries for 143 yards and six catches for 61 yards with two receiving touchdowns. His outlook is looking great, but next week’s game against Cleveland is less than desirable.  
• Tyler Higbee was TE1 for Week 12 after catching two red zone TDs, finishing with five catches for 29 yards.
• The Cardinals seem to only score points on their first and last drive in their last two games, which may continue as they travel to Pittsburg for Week 13. 
• The Steelers offense looked their best all season behind Najee Harris’s 15 carries for 99 yards with one TD and Jaylen Warren’s 13 carries for 49 yards. Fire your OC, and instant offense. Is anyone catching on to this trend?
• Pat Freiermuth saw the most TE targets in Week 12 with 11, securing nine catches 120 yards against the Bengals who allow the second most points to TEs. Freiermuth will be a popular waiver add next week with six teams on a bye. It should be noted he was more involved in the offense with the Steelers’ new OC. Perhaps it’s a sign of things to come or just a favorable matchup? I am willing to find out. 
• Without Joe Burrow, it’s hard to feel confident about Bengals’ skill players moving forward. Start them at your own peril.
• Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 21 times for 98 yards with one TD and caught five balls for nine yards. Stevenson has rushed for at least 87 yards in three consecutive games, and his upcoming schedule is very favorable.
• Derrick Henry rushed for 76 yards and two scores against the second-friendliest defense to RBs. I still don’t trust the Titans offense.
• As much as I believed in the Browns offense, I cannot trust them without a viable QB moving forward as Dorian Thompson-Robinson was diagnosed with a concussion.
• Keenan Allen saw Week 12-high 16 targets, catching 14 for 106 yards, but lost a fumble. He’s locked in as WR1.
• Without Mark Andrews, the Ravens created touches for Zay Flowers, who rewarded them with two touchdowns. Flowers had five receptions for 25 yards, with one receiving TD on six targets and a 37-yard rushing TD. Flowers should continue to get the majority of looks from Lamar Jackson.  

Bye Week Update

• Week 13 Bye includes the Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota, and NY Giants. Adjust your lineups accordingly!

🚨 Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage Update 🚨 

• Miami leads the NFL with 72%. Rounding out the top 10 are Buffalo (67%), Baltimore (65%), LA Chargers (64%), Philadelphia (63%), Chicago (62%), San Francisco(61%), LA Rams (58%), Indianapolis (60%), and Arizona (59%).
• The bottom five teams in Red Zone TD Scoring Percentages are the NY Jets (28%), Tennessee (38%), NY Giants (40%), New Orleans (43%), and Pittsburgh (43 %). 

Thanks for your time checking out Week 12 takeaways. While you are here, check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jefferson__21. 

If I did not mention your favorite team or players, please leave some comments or questions! I am here to answer any questions you may have. Cheers!