This is cut-and-dry. These are players I do not want to draft at their current cost or even at relatively lower prices. Most of these players would require multiple round falls for me to have any interest, as their prices in 2025 drafts are inflated due to name value, a “flukey” season, and/or a lack of injury information. We will assume this is for 12-team half-PPR leagues and go by round.
Round 1) RB Christian McCaffrey, SF
Does CMC have the most “upside” in fantasy? Sure. Has he played just two full seasons in the past five years? Absolutely.
Christian McCaffrey is not only an injury risk due to his history of lower-body issues, but he is also a risk given that he is coming off bilateral Achilles tendonitis. Achilles injuries and fantasy football do not mix, especially within the running back position.
McCaffrey returned from that injury late last season and performed below his standards, but looked very poor. He accumulated 348 yards and zero touchdowns on 65 touches through four games. Unfortunately, his already abbreviated season was cut short after suffering a PCL injury in Week 13.
All reports out of camp are positive on McCaffrey, yet we are paying far too steep a price in Round 1 for someone with his injury history. If he takes another step back this season, even a full 16 (fantasy) games are unlikely to return a profit.
Round 2) RB Kyren Williams, LAR
Kyren Williams is an enigma. He has some strengths–most notably, touchdown ability (31 TDs since 2023)–yet his weaknesses are too glaring to ignore. Williams has fumbled eight times across the past two seasons and is arguably the league’s least explosive starting RB.
Williams is entirely reliant on rushing volume to maximize his fantasy output. He is a poor receiving back (last in yards-per-route-run among starters), and the lack of home-run ability makes his position as a starter much more fragile.
Williams is the starting running back for Week 1, and while the Rams are attempting to extend his contract this offseason, there is no guarantee of retaining his workhorse role if his struggles continue. The Rams have leaned on him heavily across the past two seasons, but this is largely due to a lack of better options. Between post-achilles Cam Akers, Blake Corum, Ronnie Rivers, and Royce Freeman, the Rams’ backup RBs have been poor choices to spell Williams.
The Rams ranked last in explosive rush rate last year (1.8% according to FantasyPoints) and will try to solve that with Jarquez Hunter, their fourth-round rookie RB. There is no guarantee that Hunter plays early in this season, but he is looming if his training camp, preseason, and in-season practices show well. 2024 Round 3 pick Blake Corum failed to assert himself into the rotation last year, but that does not preclude Hunter from proving his worth.
Round 3) WR Rashee Rice, KC
Rice’s 2024 season ended abruptly after Patrick Mahomes fell onto his knee. This resulted in a torn LCL, hamstring, and PLC that required surgery and kept him out through the regular season and playoffs. Rice is now deemed “fully healthy” and looks spry in open-field practice footage where he is running and cutting on routes.
Unfortunately, practice footage in June or July means very little for a football player, whether they are fully healed or not. Rice is also likely to face a four-to-six game suspension in 2025. There are too many variables under consideration to make this pick. If he were to fall into the 5th round, especially in PPR formats, then he would be a solid choice.
Round 4) RB Joe Mixon, HOU
The Houston Texans’ offense underwent major changes this offseason. The team let go of Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik, hired Nick Caley to replace him, spent multiple draft picks on WR, traded up for an RB (Woody Marks, and signed veteran RB Nick Chubb. They also traded star LT Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders and replaced him with free agent Cam Robinson.
Meanwhile, Joe Mixon is reportedly walking in a boot due to “foot and ankle” issues and another year older this year (like everybody, but more notable for RBs after 27). Mixon is entering the 2025 season as a 29-year-old who struggled to maintain efficiency in the back half of 2024.
His 2024 season splits are staggering with 4.5 yards/carry and 7.3 yards/target in the first 11 games, then 3.4 yards/carry and 4.4 yards/target in the final 6 weeks. Between this downtick, his added age, a foot injury, the added depth at RB, and the downgrade in offensive line quality, there are major concerns with Mixon in 2025.
Round 5) RB David Montgomery, DET
David Montgomery, like the aforementioned Joe Mixon, is another RB aging away from his prime. The “Knuckles” to Jahmyr Gibbs’ “Sonic” is now 28 years old and coming off of his sixth straight 1000-yard season. Montgomery secured this impressive feat in just 14 games each of the past two seasons!
Unfortunately, the veteran RB tore his MCL in December and opted to rest it rather than undergo the recommended surgery to return for the playoffs. Montgomery returned for the Lions’ short-lived playoff run and accrued nearly as many passing yards (20) as rushing yards (28).
With his potentially lingering knee, “mastermind” offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in Chicago, the Lions replacing multiple pieces within their OL, and Jahmyr Gibbs improving yearly, Montgomery’s role could dwindle this season.
Round 6) WR Chris Godwin, TB
Chris Godwin was the WR2 in PPG in PPR formats last season. During Week 7, his ankle twisted to the side and was fractured like former NBA player Gordon Hayward’s in 2017. Since then, we witnessed the rise of WR Jalen McMillan and TE Cade Otton in the second half of last year and were informed that Godwin underwent a second procedure on his ankle.
The Buccaneers also selected WR Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. This is not a nail in the coffin, but a signal that the Buccaneers are not fully confident in Godwin’s recovery despite re-signing him this past offseason. Godwin is a lifelong Tampa Bay Buccaneer and was rewarded for his production to date, yet that does not preclude him from struggling beyond this ankle injury.
Yes, Chris Godwin recovered well from his torn ACL in 2022. However, he was several years younger then, and ACL tears are no longer the boogeyman of yesteryear. Recovering from a fractured ankle at 29 years old is likely more difficult than an ACL at 26.
Round 7) RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE
The Cleveland Browns have now found themselves with a troublesome second-round pick for a second year in a row. They drafted DT Mike Hall Jr. in 2024. He was arrested for domestic violence four months later and placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Hall Jr. pleaded the case down in September, then played eight games as a rookie.
2025 rookie RB Quinshon Judkins finds himself in a similar situation after an arrest was issued for a similar crime. The details are horrible, and we can assume this case will linger for some time. Whether he is guilty or innocent is to be determined, but in the meantime, there is no reason to draft him at his current price, or even a deflated one.
The Browns’ offense is horrible, and Judkins is not worth the headache. If you want a Browns’ RB badly, they drafted another rookie in Round 4 (Dylan Sampson) and have a trusted veteran in Jerome Ford, both of whom are available late in drafts.
Round 8) TE Travis Kelce, KC
Anyone who watched Travis Kelce last season can attest to his decline. This veteran TE finally lost a step, and once you do at his age, it is almost impossible to recover it. The numbers agree as well. Kelce’s yards/game (51.4), yards/target (6.2), and TD total (3) were all the lowest of his career, and this was in a season where he stayed healthy!
The future HOF TE is turning 36 in October and has played until February for three straight seasons. He still earned a fantastic 24% target share and 24% target/route last season, but posted a mediocre 1.48 YPRR. This was lower than Noah Gray and Samaje Perine on his team and par with average TEs like Pat Freiermuth (1.50) and Hunter Henry (1.54).
With Rashee Rice returning midseason, Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco healthy, and Kelce turning another year older, this pick is not worth clicking at his cost.
