This year, I’m starting a new series where I peer into the trenches. That’s right, the big boys up front need some fantasy love too! The goal of this effort is to identify pass and rush matchups to exploit and those to avoid.
As the season progresses, I’ll continue to refine and correlate the data week-by-week to give an accurate picture of what we’re seeing in the rush and passing games. For Week 1 though, we’ll need to look backwards to 2024 data. Sure, some players have new addresses, and some teams have changed their offensive/defensive schemes but again, that’ll start to flesh out in the coming weeks. For today, we go with what we have.
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Passing Game
Let’s start with the passing game. The table below shows the O-Line’s ability to protect the QB in the passing game as compared to the D-Line (and LBs) ability to disrupt said passing game. Green favors the offense (expectation for good pass protection) and red favors the defense (sack party?).
Exploit
Denver Broncos Offense vs Tennessee Titans Defense: It is common knowledge around fantasy football circles that Denver comes into the season boasting the top fantasy defense. It’s a lesser-known fact that the Broncos also sported one of the top (#1 in this analysis) O-Lines in pass protection. Bo Nix certainly knows that (I hope he took care of his lineman during the offseason). On the flip side, the Titans finished as a bottom-5 defense in pressuring the QB. They didn’t do much to bolster their D-Line but did overhaul their LB corp by adding Dre’Mont Jones and Cody Barton in Free Agency (both with former ties to the Broncos) and rookie Cedric Gray. The Titans run a 3-4 scheme so the question will be if these new arrivals can generate more of a pass rush.
Neutral
Washington Commanders Offense vs New York Giants Defense: The Giants front seven is arguably the strength of their team. With the addition of rookies Abdul Carter and Darius Alexander, along with veteran Roy Robertson-Harris, the pass rush should be even more formidable than last season. Will they be able athletic enough to contain Jayden Daniels for four quarters? That is the big question. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Giants Defense keeping it close throughout.
Fade
Dallas Cowboys Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Defense: Although they come in with a moderately positive projected ranking in Week 1 versus the Eagles, the Dallas O-line was really only average at best in overall pass blocking. Conversely, they were near the top in run blocking. Dak is back under center and will need to be in mid-season form to keep this one from becoming a laugher on Thursday Night Football. I’m high on Dak as a fantasy QB this season (garbage points count too) but it’s not because of his O-line’s ability to give him time in the pocket. I’ll pass on this trench matchup.
Rushing Game
Same exercise for O-line’s ability to create running lanes versus the D-line’s (and LBs) ability to plug those holes.
Exploit
San Francisco 49ers Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Defense: Give me a healthy Christian McCaffrey all day. Will he stay that way all season, that’s a big question to be answered. For Week 1 though, I’m all in. The Seahawks roster a number of edge rushers, one being DeMarcus Lawrence as their weakside LB, so I expect their pass defense to be better but the jury is still out on their ability to stop the run, which was bottom third in the league in 2024.
Neutral
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense vs Carolina Panthers Defense: Boasting one of the top D-lineman in Derrick Brown and adding a pair of former Rams, run-stopping NT Bobby Brown and ILB Christian Rozeboom in free agency, the Panthers front seven is expected to be a better than their 2024 numbers suggest. “Better” enough to contain the Jaguars RB trio of Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten? There are a lot of question marks both ways here so I’m staying neutral.
Fade
New Orleans Saints Offense vs Arizona Cardinals Defense: “Love the player, not the game…” I love me some Alvin Kamara in fantasy, but I have little confidence that the Saints O-Line can give him the running room to return his RB#1/#2 value in Week 1. Between the improvements in Arizona and the lack of a formidable passing attack, it feels the Cardinals can focus on stopping Kamara…and they have the tools to do it. Here’s hoping Kamara finds the end zone to help is fantasy owners but I’m not expecting much more than that.
That’s All Folks
This officially puts a bow on my 2025 fantasy football pre-season preparations. Now it’s time to sit back and enjoy the spoils. Check out our free and premium tools back each day as the RazzballNFL crew helps you prepare for all your fantasy football needs. Best of luck to all of you in Week 1.
Programming note: The Razzball Sunday Start/Sit show returns this Sunday from 11:00 am EDT (8:00 PDT) right up right up to gametime. Join @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08, @Crewser128, @Jefferson__21 and myself as we answer all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m also on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
