That’s right, we’re doing a countdown, although halfway through, I realized I’m technically doing a countup (and making up words while I’m at it). First, some words:
- I’m not trying to figure out who’s injury-prone. It’s a game where hundreds of high-speed collisions occur every week. The entire league is injury-prone. I’m assuming everyone is healthy unless I hear otherwise. Adjustments are for during the season.
- Opportunity matters. Committees don’t foster that.
- These players’ stats use base PPR scoring: 1 point per reception, 0.10 points per yard rushing/receiving, 0.04 points per yard passing, 6 points per touchdown, and -2.00 points per turnover.
- This column has little to do with Dynasty fantasy football. My focus is redraft.
- I love offenses. I will be assuming I have an idea of which teams have the best ones.
- The 2025 stat lines for each player will be, in order: scoring rank based on total PPR points, games played, targets, target percentage, receptions, total yards from scrimmage, yards per reception, red zone targets, total touchdowns, PPR points, PPR points per game.
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The next group is players to have if you want more than one, to the bottom of fantasy TE1s. I have shied away from this range; I’m usually drafting more aggressively at the position. This range scored between 176.2 and 126.1 points in PPR in 2025.
20: Gunnar Helm, Tennessee Titans
2025: 31, 16, 55, 10.5, 44, 357, 8.1, 7, 2, 91.7, 5.7
Here’s why I like Helm better than the players below him: perceived opportunities. Everyone above him in the Titans’ expected pecking order is new (Carnell Tate, Wan’Dale Robinson) or returning from serious injury while aging (Calvin Ridley). Helm showed enough in his rookie season that the Titans let a good incumbent (Chig Okonkwo) leave in free agency. I don’t believe this offense will evolve to the point that they get past relying on a shorter passing game. His 80% catch rate is likely unsustainable, but the only players on the team that had a higher success rate had one target for the season. They added Daniel Bellinger to the tight end room, and while he’s a capable pass catcher, that’s not where his value has been. There’s upside here for Helm; I cap it at him being on a rebuilding team.
19: Isaiah Likely, New York Giants
2025: 45, 14, 36, 8.8, 27, 307, 11.4, 6, 1, 61.7, 4.4
I know, I know, Shiny New Object. But I swear, as much as I’m a fan of the athlete, I’m not sure I’ve seen a guy receive more love based on a few flashes and one great game (Week 1 2024: 12 targets, 9 receptions, 111 yards, 1 TD, 26.1 PPR points – over 20% of his total for the season). I’m not overvaluing a guy who will be with the same head coach and with the same path to relevance that goes through another viable tight end. Theo Johnson is not Mark Andrews, but Johnson’s not to be ignored. 2024 was Likely’s only season inside the PPR top-24 TEs. I think this ranking is generous.
18: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
2025: 20, 12, 49, 10.2, 39, 571, 14.6, 6, 5, 126.1, 10.5
Another player I’m daring to prove me wrong. This is one of the most gifted players in the NFL at this position. He’s also on one of the most frustrating passing offenses in fantasy football. His per-opportunity rates are terrific. The lack of opportunities is not. Kincaid can easily crush my ranking; here’s how: by staying on the field (career-low games played in 2025), earning a higher opportunity share (no games with a snap count above 55%), and not losing efficiency. This is an upside play, but he never had more than 2 TDs before 2025, and Dawson Knox, granted in a full slate, had twice the number of RZ targets of Kincaid (12 to 6). I know Knox is aging, but he isn’t going away.
17: Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
2025: 23, 12, 60, 10.9, 46, 540, 11.7, 9, 3, 118.0, 9.8
Why I like Strange more than Kincaid: opportunity. Sensing a theme here? Kincaid has the ability to do a lot with a little. Strange has the opportunity to do a lot with a lot. There are three talented WRs on the Jaguars, but I don’t think I’m stretching logic by saying I expect the Jags to throw more than the Bills. And where Kincaid has Knox to share the field with, Strange has two rookies and a low-usage vet.
16: Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
2025: 10, 17, 106, 18.9, 82, 777, 9.5, 11, 3, 177.7, 10.5
The main reason I don’t rank Schultz more highly than this, despite his finishing as a top-10 PPR TE in two of the last three years, is that I don’t forecast catastrophe. The other reasons are relatively low RZ usage and that C.J. Stroud has yet to throw 24 TD passes in a season. The other opportunities say TE 1 in fantasy. He rises should anyone higher in my rankings get hurt, and Schultz will be one of the first guys I grab if I wait on TE in this format.
15: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
2025: 5, 17, 102, 17.1, 82, 600, 7.3, 23, 8, 188.1, 11.1
I LOVED Jake Ferguson going into 2025 as a bounce-back candidate and TE 1 in 12-team PPR leagues. Top-5 was not in that forecast, so in my eyes, I’m not dropping him much. It’s how he got to the top 5 that I don’t believe repeats. There are 10 players whose 2025 circumstances, mostly injury-related, are better situated than Ferguson in 2026. I’m also not willing to forecast 4 more missed games for CeeDee Lamb in 2026. While Lamb was out, Ferguson had 33 targets, 30 receptions, 204 yards, and 4 TDs. That was good for 74.4 PPR points. 18.6 points per game is Trey McBride territory, and I don’t think that’s sustainable for McBride. And less than 6 yards per reception? That’s an extension of the running game. Ferguson is capable of top-10 status, but if the TDs fall off, this is where I see him.
14: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
2025: 9, 17, 87, 17.8, 60, 768, 12.8, 22, 7, 178.8, 10.5
We’ve entered the “Guys we need, not the guys we want” tier. I’m beginning to think Hunter Henry is in the best environment he may ever have as an NFL player. 22 RZ targets are nothing to sneeze at, especially in light of the lower overall opportunities with respect to others in this range. Drake Maye and the coaching staff seem to trust him. We’re in new territory here with the receiving changes: out are Stefon Diggs, Keyshon Boutte, and Austin Hooper; in are A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, and rookie TE Eli Raridon. That’s a net minus in my eyes, but Henry did get a fairly generous extension this offseason. I’m concerned that Doubs and AJB eat into the RZ share. And consistency was an issue in 2025: five weeks in the top-10 TEs, six weeks outside the top-24. I think he belongs here, but I’m not anxious to draft him.
13: Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
2025: 8, 17, 102, 18.0, 77, 889, 11.5, 8, 3, 179.9, 10.6
The difference between Johnson and Henry is that, while they wound up in nearly identical places in 2025 PPR scoring, Johnson’s was based more on volume. Another difference is that the WR room in New Orleans will not likely be immediately improved. Jordyn Tyson is a highly coveted fantasy asset among 2026 rookie WRs, but he’s currently on IR with a soft tissue injury and is forecast conservatively to be out until late October. 2025 was an outlier for Johnson; I’m unconvinced it was the best case. I have shares where I have not dived into a frenzy for the position.
12: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
2025: 7, 15, 82, 17.6, 60, 591, 9.9, 15, 11, 185.1, 12.3
We’ve reached the “déjà vu” tier. Paraphrasing myself from a year ago: “Goedert is the last TE I’m comfortable taking as a TE 1 in PPR.” That holds today. But there are red flags: the 15 games he played in 2025 were a four-year high, and the 11 TDs he had crushed his previous high of 5. On the superstitious side, even-numbered years have not been kind; not that I believe that; I thought it was a cute anecdote. I know expectations are high for Eli Stowers in fantasy, but I believe we’re not there yet. Goedert’s rise in the red zone offset A.J. Brown’s relative absence in 2025. With AJB physically absent, I still think the opportunity is high if Goedert plays a like number of games in 2026, although downward regression in TDs should be baked in.
11: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
2025: 16, 17, 70, 16.9, 48, 422, 8.8, 14, 5, 131.0, 7.7
The train went flying off the rails in 2025 for the Baltimore Ravens in the Week 4 game in Kansas City. Lamar Jackson had been playing at an MVP level before hurting his knee in that game. Jackson was not the same player after that, despite returning in Week 8. Andrews and Jackson entered the league in 2018, have developed together, and for the most part, succeeded together. They both had their worst seasons last year since they were rookies, and Andrews had more points in only 10 games in 2023. Yes, I know they are both older, but I don’t believe either of them is finished. Andrews has played every game the last two seasons and has less competition in the tight end room with the departure of Isaiah Likely. The RZ opportunities are still high. I see upside here more than downside.
That’s it for this segment. The top 10 is here tomorrow.
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