The transition from a domed stadium’s controlled environment to an outdoor field’s open expanse can introduce a myriad of variables that may significantly influence the play in the NFL. No other football player is affected more by the element than the quarterback.
NOTE: Some may argue the kicker may be more affected, but my counterargument is that I said, “football player,” and therefore, the kickers are excluded. I jest a bit here, but we can argue that point another day. In our decision matrix for the fantasy playoffs, the “QB” question looms much larger than the “K” question, in my opinion. We really need to understand how outdoor factors may affect our QBs during the fantasy playoffs.
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The switch from the sheltered confines of a domed stadium to the great outdoors unveils a host of challenges that demand a quarterback’s astute awareness and quick thinking. From the impact of wind gusts and precipitation to the play-altering effects of varying field conditions, the elements may become an additional adversary or ally on the field. Some QBs adapt, while others noticeably struggle.
We’ve all heard the notion of a “home Goff” and a “road Goff” that may affect your fantasy decisions. We’re also aware of the “home field advantage” that northern teams have late in the season. Whether it is feet of snow in Buffalo or bitter cold in Green Bay, traditionally, teams traveling to these exotic destinations see a decline in performance when the conditions are less than optimal.
As fantasy football strategists, we need to consider all this when we construct our rosters and set our lineups, especially during the fantasy playoffs. In today’s piece, I’ll look over many of the QBs important to us in fantasy football and see if we can anticipate how their schedule over the next few weeks may affect performance. It’s not too late to stash a QB based on what looks to be a favorable matchup or game location in the coming weeks.
Last week, I did an article on “Must Have QBs and TEs for the Fantasy Football Playoffs” (HERE). In that piece, I looked at the upcoming schedules for each of the 32 teams and ranked them based on cumulative defensive ranks vs QBs and TEs, respectively. I truncated the list for the article to discuss the best and worst rankings, but here is the complete list (DEF ranks as of last week):
An additional utility of this list is that it provides a convenient way to identify players we should look at more closely to answer the “Indoor vs Outdoor” question. Let’s look at a few:
Kyler Murray
One of the first names on this list that jumps out to me is Kyler Murray. With road games at Chicago and Philadelphia, we really need to dig deeper to determine if we can trust him in these outdoor games. If not, just in case, we need another option ready to go. Here’s what I found:
Of his four games this season, only one has been outdoors – Week 13’s tilt in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. You may recall that the game was marred by very rainy conditions and delayed twice. Statistically, Murray had his worst game of the season. He threw for only 145 yards and 1 TD while adding just 20 yards on nine carries. Was this all because of the weather?
We have to go back to 2020 to find an outdoor game Murray played this late in the season. In Week 14 of that season, Murray led the Cardinals to victory over the Giants (26-7) at MetLife Stadium. That game had winds of 15 mph but was clear and 59 degrees – not the worst outdoor conditions to navigate. Murray had little trouble managing the conditions to the tune of 21 fantasy points.
Looking across all outdoor games over the past couple of years, some of his best fantasy games have come outdoors on the road, including @CAR (27.0) in 2022 and @TEN (38.5), @JAX (23.7), @CLE (28.1), and @CHI (32.1) in 2021.
So, the historical precedent suggests we can trust Murray in outdoor road games in “normal” conditions. Like any other QB, take some pause if Mother Nature wants to play as well.
Nick Mullens
Nick Mullens takes over the reins for the Vikings in this week’s road game against the Bengals. We don’t have to go back very far to assess his proficiency for outdoor games in December. Last season, he played parts of two games for the Vikings when they visited Green Bay (Week 17) and Chicago (Week 18). Although neither game was considered “bad weather,” both were similar to the expected weather in Cincinnati this weekend – cool with little/no precipitation.
In those games combined, Mullens went 15-17 for 173 yards and a TD (1 INT). If you’re in a position to stream Mullens this week, do so with no additional trepidation due to the conditions. At the very least, you shouldn’t downgrade other players like Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.
Dak Prescott
Many of us are now counting on a red-hot Dak Prescott to carry our teams to a title after the slow start to the season. With road games over the next two weeks @BUF and @MIA, we may be concerned about leaving Jerry World, especially this week. The projected weather on Sunday includes rain (80%) and temperatures below 50 degrees. It’s not ideal for this high-powered offense. Should we be concerned?
Three of Dak’s worst fantasy games of the season occurred @NYG (7.8), @SF (11.9), and @CAR (18.1). Only the Giants game came with adverse weather (rain). The other two were generally ideal NFL conditions. This should cause some heightened concerns, but let’s keep digging.
Dak and the Cowboys made three road trips between Weeks 15-18 last season, including @JAX, @TEN and @WAS. Statistically, Dak had good games versus the Jaguars and Titans (26.8 and 23.2 fantasy points, respectively) but not versus the Commanders (12.0). You may remember that one, the Commanders jumped out to a 13-6 lead at halftime and cruised to a 26-6 win. There were really no external factors to point to; rather, it just appeared the Cowboys didn’t show up.
One thing to note from this 3-game road stretch last year: 5 of Dak’s 15 INTs on the season came in these games—something to keep an eye on in Buffalo and Miami. All in all, I might suggest tempering expectations on Dak just a little these two weeks.
Other QBs of Note:
Derek Carr – Carr and the Saints have a favorable 3-game road schedule, but note he generally doesn’t produce nearly as well away from the Superdome. Proceed with caution.
Lamar Jackson – I see some evidence of depressed fantasy numbers for Jackson on the road and/or in rainy weather, but not enough to be overly concerned. Unleash him without pause this week @JAX. Next week’s game @SF may be more of a concern due to the matchup and cross-country travel. Unless you have a prime QB matchup elsewhere on your roster, you’re understandably going to be committed to Jackson.
Before I put a wrap on this and finish preparing for my playoff matchups, I just want to wish you all the best of luck. Go get that Championship!
Lastly, don’t forget to join us every Sunday morning for the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08, and I will answer all your fantasy football questions. We’ll be back on Tuesday night as well to cover the important fantasy topics as well. Don’t miss it.
Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on Bluesky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
