“Must Have” RBs…Check!
“Must Have” WRs…Check!
“Must Have” QBs and TEs? Well, that’s the topic for today.
Before we get to the good stuff, here’s just a quick reminder of why we’re doing this pre-planning for the fantasy playoffs.
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Anticipating the Schedule Chessboard:
Identifying favorable matchups for your key players during the playoff weeks can provide a decisive edge. Targeting players with favorable matchups or shoring up your bench with potential breakout stars can mean the difference in hoisting the Championship trophy or receiving the dreaded Runner-up prize. I want you to be the former.
Injury Mitigation and Waiver Wire Mastery:
Planning ahead enables managers to assess and address potential injury risks in advance. Whether you scoop up emerging talents or secure valuable handcuffs, these strategic moves can set you apart from competitors caught in the chaos of last-minute decisions.
Weathering Bye Week Storms:
By planning for the playoffs weeks well in advance, managers can strategically navigate and even take advantage of the Week 13 and Week 14 bye weeks. This will involve keeping a keen eye on the waiver wire and nabbing players that others drop to fulfill their bye week needs.
Securing Key Handcuffs and Breakout Candidates:
The emergence of breakout stars or the sudden necessity of handcuffs can reshape the fantasy landscape. By planning ahead, managers can identify players with favorable late-season schedules or those poised for increased roles. Snatching up potential breakout candidates and securing the handcuffs to your star players provides insurance against unforeseen circumstances, ensuring that your roster remains resilient in the face of adversity. Don’t be the Jonathan Taylor owner who failed to roster Zack Moss as a handcuff.
Now that we got that covered again let’s start looking at the data…
First, I’ll cover the analysis I did for the signal callers. For each QB, I looked at their schedules across the fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 15-17) and logged each of those team’s rank in allowing fantasy points to QBs (as you may have already surmised, I did the same for TEs…more on that later).
Here are the results (note: the higher the number, the better the matchup):
See any names you like on the left? How about all those big names on the right? Let’s discuss a few.
Targets:
- Kyler Murray draws one of the friendliest playoff schedules for QBs. This is especially true in Weeks 16 & 17 against the Bears and Eagles…although both will be outdoor games on the road. You’ll want to be mindful of December weather, but there’s potential here.
- Russell Wilson has been cooking lately, and it looks like he could stay in the kitchen for a few more weeks. A road game at Detroit begins the fantasy playoffs, followed by home tilts against the hapless Patriots and underachieving Chargers. Who would have thought 2 months ago that Russ might just be a league winner?
- Speaking of cooking, Dak Prescott has been red hot since his Week 7 bye. In 5 of 6 games, Dak has scored 30 or more fantasy PPG. All 3 games during the fantasy playoffs (@BUF, @MIA, v DET) could easily turn into offensive shootouts. I wouldn’t want Dallas DEF during that stretch, but definitely give me some Dak!
Fades:
- On the flip side, one must wonder if climate change is coming to South Florida? Maybe/maybe not…but the hot orange at the bottom of the table signals Tua Tagovailoa and the Fins have a tough road to navigate over the fantasy playoffs. Home games against the Jets (5th best against QBs), Cowboys (about league average versus QBs), and Ravens (best against QBs) are on tap. Yikes!
- Of the 12 QBs at the bottom of the list, a majority of those listed are counted on by many fantasy managers to lead their squads. In fact, it’d be much easier just to eliminate the ones that aren’t every-week starters, including Bailey Zappe, Jake Browning (although that may be changing) and Sam Howell. Many of us are going to roll with the QB that got us to the playoffs, and that’s ok. But if your situation allows, try to give yourself options and grab one of the players on the left side to back them up.
Now onto the TEs:
Targets:
- Daniel Bellinger is an interesting name at the top of the TE playoff rankings. He began filling in for the injured Darren Waller in Week 9 and has been a serviceable TE streamer for the most part. Unfortunately, he’s not being targeted often but has been converting the ones he gets at a high percentage. There’s also the news that Waller is starting to run. To me, I don’t think there’s much chance we see Waller play again this season, so if you need a TE streamer during the fantasy playoffs, I’d keep Bellinger on my radar.
- A look at the bulk of Chigoziem Okonkwo’s season looks pretty boring for fantasy purposes. He usually averages 4-5 targets per game and turns it into 5-6 fantasy points. We’ve seen a shift in the last two in which Okonkwo is being targeted further downfield. That’s translating to almost double the yardage and thus bringing him back to the TE streamer conversation. With fantasy playoff games against Houston (twice) and Seattle, I can envision this evolution to continue (or increase) for the Titans to complete.
- Pat Freiermuth is also an interesting name to check in on, although I suspect he’s rostered in most leagues. He has some past success with Mitch Trubisky at the helm and we all know how “new” QBs like to use their TEs as a safety valve. I’m particularly interested in the Week 16 matchup with the Bengals (#32 vs TE).
- Other TE’s I like on the left side include Juwan Johnson and of course, Sam Laporta.
Fades:
- From the right side of the board, I’ll heed the warning and stay away from Dalton Schultz. Between the very difficult matchups and his pending return from a hamstring injury, I have very little optimism here.
- Dallas Goedert falls into a similar category as well. There’s no question the Eagles need a third receiving option, and Goedert is the guy. He returns this week after missing 4 weeks (3 games + bye) due to a fractured right forearm. Goedert should see his normal share of targets and may prove to be mostly matchup-proof, but I’d definitely temper expectations going in.
- Evan Engram is another cautionary tale right now. He finally found the end zone last week and has generally been a serviceable TE in fantasy, but Trevor Lawrence’s ankle injury puts a cloud over all Jaguar receiving options. I’ll give you a shred of optimism, though (a silver lining, of sorts…): Engram hauled in almost half of C.J. Beathard’s completions after Lawrence’s injury.
Putting it all together, here is a snapshot with many of the key QB-TE matchups we fantasy owners like to stack.
Whether for DFS or season-long, staking QB-TE is a common practice. If you, too, would like to do this (I have Goff-LaPorta in my primary league), here is the prognosis moving forward. I’ll let you all decide how you want to use this information, but I found it interesting, so I wanted to share.
There you go, my “Must Have” QBs and TEs for the fantasy playoffs. That concludes my “must-have” series, but don’t fret if I missed any of your players. You can always hit me up with any fantasy playoff questions in the comments below. Also, be sure to use the free tools we have at football.razzball.com for all your roster needs.
Lastly, don’t forget to join us every Sunday morning for the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08, and I will be answering all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
We also come together every Tuesday night to talk about other important topics like trades, waivers, matchups, and any other topic of importance for the upcoming week. This past Tuesday was all about Defenses to target/avoid during the fantasy playoffs. We covered a lot of ground and identified some juicy options to consider. Check it out.
Look for my articles right here each week, and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on Bluesky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
