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A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be the optimal way to make that choice on the fly and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

For each player in this matchup we will look at the following:

  • 2018 WR PPR finish in points-per-game (ppg) per Fantasypros
  • 2019 WR position ADP per ESPN 
  • Age at the start of the season (for why this matters for WRs, check out Mike Tagliere’s great piece here)
  • Situation change (QB, coach or team)
  • TD difference between actual and expected (diff) via PlayerProfiler
    • Positive values indicate player scored more TDs than expected based on offensive plays, game situation and field position
    • Negative values indicate player should have scored more TDs given his opportunity
  • NEW Boom and Bust rates
    • Boom: weeks scoring in the positional top 10 / games played
    • Bust: weeks scoring outside the positional top 36 / games played
  • Razzball’s own 2019 positional projections (proj) from Rudy’s projection machine

ADP Royal Rumble III will pit a difficult group of WRs in the fifth round against each other: Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, and Alshon Jeffery. With an overall ADP separated by less than 1 pick, one of these WRs can be the difference between fantasy ecstasy and despair. At this point in the draft you need stable production with undeniable upside. Now, without further ado, let’s get ready to RUUUUUUUMMMMMBBBBLLLLEEEE!

Player (2019 ADP) 2018 WR PPG 2019 WR ADP Age Situation change diff boom bust proj
Cooper Kupp (56.0) 15 19 (t) 26 +2.6 38% 38% 19 (0)
Kenny Golladay (56.0) 23 19 (t) 25 coach +0.1 13% 4o% 17 (+2)
Alshon Jeffery (56.8) 22 21 29 +1.2 31% 54% 27 (-6)

3. Alshon Jeffery

Somehow Jeffery is still on the right side of 30, despite being a fantasy fixture for years.  It may also be surprising to know that he has not surpassed 900 receiving yards since 2014. Between inefficient play and many missed games, he has not recently put together a season that would excite fantasy managers. One thing remains however, the old man can still post up, as evidenced by a top 10 contested catch rate in 2018.

With 2 strong tight end options in Philly and a new field stretcher in Desean Jackson, the days of Alshon being a target hog are behind him. He is fading into a touchdown-dependent, low floor option with over half his games falling outside WR3 range last season. Alshon Jeffery’s name is keeping him relevant this draft season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he falls out of the single digit rounds by this time next year. He doesn’t even belong in this group, stop the fight, this guy is done.

2. Kenny Golladay

There are some reasons to be excited about Golladay heading into 2019: he is entering a prime age range, he should be the top endzone option in the Lions passing game, and he has shown the ability to both be a deep threat and create yards after the catch. The raincloud that hangs over his head is the offensive environment in Detroit. New coordinator Darrell Bevell wants to run the damn ball. In 8 years as OC prior to 2016, Bevell’s offenses attempted an average of 473 passes per season. His 2016 and 2017 seasons in Seattle were characterized by devastating injuries to multiple running backs. Case in point: Russell Wilson was Seattle’s leading rusher in 2017 with 95 carries. It’s safe to say that was not in the original design.

Making the assumption that Bevell will return to his ground and pound ways, Detroit won’t throw the ball 500 times. If that’s the case, Golladay may have a tough time achieving WR2 status. With a pie that small, he’d have to see about 25% of the targets to reach 120 and that seems unlikely. Marvin Jones is healthy, gritty Danny Amendola will man the slot, and new toy T. J. Hockenson will get looks. His profile seems like it should have Led Zeppelin upside but unless we get an outlier season catching TDs, Kenny G’s ceiling is just a smooth saxophone solo.  

1. Cooper Kupp

This third installment of the Royal Rumble was not even a contest. The other two contenders didn’t have a right to be in the ring with Kupp. His ACL tear in week 10 really masked what an outstanding season he was having in 2018. Kupp was 4th in fantasy points per target, 9th in fantasy points per pass route, and had the 4th highest QB rating when targeted. Of course, there is the ACL question but the good news is that he was relatively young when sustaining the injury. Because Kupp was 25 last year at the time of the tear, we can be optimistic about increased production in the future.

He is attached to an incredibly efficient and explosive offense that should continue to score boatloads of points. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Los Angeles, but Kupp has truly earned his share of targets and a McVey/Goff target is one of the most valuable in the league. While he may not have a path to elite upside, Kupp will out-produce his current price. Draft him with confidence at WR19.

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  1. the Sportsguy says:
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    Unique scoring 14 team non PPR but bonuses for longer Td…please rank these 5
    Odell
    Davante
    Tyreek
    Julio
    juju

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      With no PPR and extra for long TD I think Hill has to be tops

      then

      Davante
      JuJu
      Odell
      Julio

  2. Nick says:
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    Hi Whata Boof,

    ESPN Keeper 12 teams : 4 players to choose

    i’d go RB heavy looking at my players to consider : (with MB’s rankings)

    RB6 James Conner round 1
    RB10 Aaron Jones round 2/3
    RB13 Nick Chubb round 2
    RB12 Damien Williams round 2/3

    WR14 Diggs round 4
    WR21 Kupp round 5/6

    QB6 DSWatson round 4/5
    QB3 Baker Mayfield round 5/6

    what would your top 4?

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
      (link)

      Not sure if that round designation is the round you have to give up to keep the player but I think I would do

      Conner, Chubb, Diggs & Kupp

      You can still get a nice complimentary piece in the 3rd of your draft I’d imagine that’s a strong 5 man core to start

      • Nick says:
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        The round refers more or less to their ADP in 12 teams league! no give up rounds!

        SO 2RBs +2 WRs would be fine , as i can start only 1RB +2WRs +2 Flex each weeks

        i’ll get my chance to snatch back RB A.Jones or D.Wiliams and a QB Baker or DShaun in rounds 5-6 then…

        Hard to let go good players in keepers !

        Thanks

  3. Nick says:
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    Hi again

    Team 2
    Yahoo Keeper 8 teams : last season winner – 5 keepers

    RB heavy again ?

    RB2 Kamara
    RB11 Gurley
    RB13 Chubb

    WR2 DVAdams
    WR12 A.Brown
    WR21 Kupp

    QB6 DSWatson
    QB3 Baker Mayfield

    TE5 Engram

    Please pick 5 :
    top 3 RBs + top QB + top WR?
    or No-risk-with-the-Gurley-pick –> 2 RBs + 2WR +QB ?

    • CMUTIMMAH says:
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      8 teams?

      is this 2 QB?

      Do you not have more than 7 friends?

      • Nick says:
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        Teams decreased from 10 to 8 over the years…

        but still competitive with expert fantasy players! all together in baseball / hockey/ basket / and football …

        1 QB league, but i Always draft 2… for bye weeks and insurance , or for the future …

        pretty flexible league, with good depth for speculative picks

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
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      Kamara, Adams, Chubb, Gurley are a lock

      In an 8 team league I cant justify keeping a QB unless you know for sure everyone rosters 2-3 (for some reason) and in that case keep Watson

      If thats not the case its between Brown and Kupp (I think Engram is interesting but not as important as keeping a WR here) which sounds crazy but I truly dont know if Brown will play. I dont know what is happening with him. If we get positive reports over the next week or so you have to keep him. If you dont feel comfortable with the Brown news, keep Kupp. I am not a Raider beat reporter so I have no special knowledge on his situation.

      • Nick says:
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        interesting analysis
        i don’t think one team is gonna keep 2QB (max allowed)
        so i’m staying with A.Brown for now,
        with a chance to grab my QB back and Engram after

      • Nick says:
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        right now i’m more afraid with Gurley than Brown,,,
        for such a high pick

  4. CMUTIMMAH says:
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    1 Golladay
    2 Kupp
    3 Jeffrey

    This isn’t even a question. Kenny G has a coaching change, but it doesn’t change that the Lions will be in shootouts all season with their defense getting the behind early and often. Additionally, Kenny is the WR1 on his team. Kupp is WR 2 at best (more likely WR3 after Woods) and Kupp allowed Josh Reynolds to do enough last year to have a gain share in the offense this year that really didn’t exist pre-Kupp injury.

    The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist. The greatest trick the Lions ever pulled was convincing the world they are a running team for the first time in 20+ years. Don’t buy it. Stafford isn’t a game manager and will end up with more turnovers getting out of rhythm and having more stressful 3rd down throws. This will also contribute to the offense playing catchup.

    All of the crap above could be completely wrong, and I still like Kerryon in Detroit this year because of the increased workload expected. But in the end, we’ll be looking at Golladay being the top dog of these three.

    • What a BOOF

      What a BOOF says:
      (link)

      For starters, a WR2 on an elite passing offense can absolutely outscore a WR1 on a slow, run based offense.

      Did I read that you think Josh Reynolds did something good last year? I didn’t think he was special at all. 62nd in yards/target. He is not eating into any of the top 3 WR on that team.

      Your analysis of the Detroit offense is interesting if you think Stafford is going to just take control, make mistakes and create negative game scripts… but his attempts have declined almost every year since 2012 and the coaching philosophy we see very clearly wants to play slow and run which also protects a shaky defense by not allowing opposing offenses to run more plays. Dallas has been employing this strategy for the last few years.

      In any case, thanks for the read!

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