If you missed the special announcement a little while back, we have officially launched our 2019 Razzball Commenter Leagues on Fantrax, with the Top 10 overall finishers in the RCL’s getting a spot booked in the 2020 Razzbowl! It’s quite the prize, and I can’t wait to see how the year shakes out. Lots of spots are still open to play against some of our staff writers. Be sure to sign up for a league as soon as possible

Today will be the final post in a series I started two weeks ago, which will be to take a look at the ADP rankings provided by Fantrax (which is gathered by their own site-hosted drafts), and compare that to our own 2019  projections provided by our stat guru/oracle/wizard Rudy Gamble, to identify which players to target, and which to stay away from. Simply put, which players are we high on compared to Fantrax? Which players are we lower on?

Today, we’ll be taking a look at some Running Backs that have some disparity between our own site projections and Fantrax’s ADP.

***NOTE – Early-bird discounts are still available on 2019 Razzball Fantasy Football subscriptions. Just $19.98 for season-long weekly projections/rankings and $99.99 includes DFS projections including lineup optimizer. Sign up today for the best projections and tools in the business!

*Note* – All ADP Data corresponds with 12-team PPR leagues

Chris Carson, Seattle

Fantrax ADP: 5.06, #21 RB; Razzball Projection: #13 RB

Heading into last season, a lot of fantasy writers, including myself, believed that Carson would lose the leading job in Seattle to rookie Rashaad Penny. But, that never happened. Carson finished last year as the #18 back in PPR, and racked up 1,314 all-purpose yards and 9 TD’s on 267 touches. With Mike Davis and his 146 touches now in Chicago, there is plenty of room for Penny’s role to grow without affecting Carson’s workload as well. The Seahawks offense is one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, and with a continually improving offensive line, Carson has another top-20 finish on the horizon. We’ve seen some pretty rave reviews from his performances in the preseason and training camp thus far, and while his ADP is bound to rise, a 5th-round price tag on Fantrax is a bit of a steal, with our projections have him just outside of the top-12.

Todd Gurley, L.A. Rams

Fantrax ADP: 2.03, #8 RB; Razzball Projection: #19 RB

It was all sunshine and rainbows until Week 15 of the 2018 season, in which Todd Gurley (or “God Turley” as some people will like to point out) hurt his knee, missed the last two games of the regular season, and didn’t look like his usual self in the Rams’ playoff run. While C.J. Anderson is no longer on the team, the Rams traded up in the draft for Darrell Henderson, which doesn’t bode too well for Gurley. After an eventful offseason, the big takeaway here is that while his workload will be scaled back, and we won’t see a bell-cow Gurley anymore,. Not too mention the fact that he’s likely to miss a game or two even if he avoids major injuries. I don’t believe he should be drafted this highly in the 2nd round. However, as pointed out by Rudy’s projections, he’s still a Top-20 back, and should still be productive in fantasy this season. As an owner, you just have to ask yourself, is he worth the risk?

Aaron Jones, Green Bay

Fantrax ADP: 3.09, #15 RB; Razzball Projection: #9 RB

Jones will head into 2019 with a definitive roles in the Green Bay offense, something he didn’t have for a majority of last season. In the final eight games of the season, Jones finished with 540 rushing yards and 7 TD’s. Jones should easily get to 200 carries this season, which boosts his floor and ceiling for this season. Going in the late 3rd-round, there is a lot to love here as a first or second RB, depending on how you attack the early rounds. Rudy’s projections have him as a Top-10 RB this season, and I’m here for it. All the way.

Sony Michel, New England

Fantrax ADP: 6.08, #27 RB; Razzball Projection: #18 RB

First things first, it’s a very crowded backfield in New England. James White will always have his role carved out in the passing game, but Michel will still have to compete with Rex Burkhead, and Damien Harris (assuming he’s at full health at the start of the season). While there is a bit of a concern about his knee, it seems like all is well to start the year. At the start of the summer, Michel was an easy fade in the fourth round, with unknown concerns about his volume work. But recent reports out of New England suggest that Damien Harris might not get many reps to start the year. While that can change, I think it’s safe to say that Michel will be the RB1 in New England to start the year. And, even better, his ADP has slipped to the late 6th round. He’s a great buy at his current price.

The NFFC is the home of the inaugural RazzBowl! If you’re looking for a place to play high stakes fantasy football, look no further than the NFFC. Along with their innovative formats, the NFFC is the longest running high-stakes fantasy sports contest in the industry. It has awarded more than $53 million in prizes and will award $4 million+ more this year! Join the fun today. 

You Can Follow Me on Twitter @zachrob2k

  1. Brian says:
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    Hey zach,

    16 team dynasty ppr. 1 qb, 2 wr, 2 rb, 2 wr/rb/te flex, 1 te.

    Have Deshaun, big ben, brissett
    Leveon, conner, hyde, Duke, cja, darwin Thompson, james white
    Julio, tyreek, alshon, gabriel, demarcus robinson
    Trey burton, eifert

    About to pick in draft. End of 4th so most impact rookies are gone. I’m looking at trent taylor, kumerow, keesean jackson, slayton, Beebe, pringle, waller, shaheen.

    Who are your top 5 from that group?

    Thanks!

    • Brian says:
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      Trey quinn is there too

  2. Chucky says:
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    Critique my RBs in a 12 teamer: Carson, Montgomery, Tarik, Singletary and Dion. Thanks

    • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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      that better be a PPR with cohen and dion. seems a bit thin overall but not awful. could be in bad shape early on if mont/singletary don’t do much early in year. but of course later in the year could be awesome, esp if/when the dinosaurs on BUF both get hurt or phased out.

  3. Beware the Shit Rope says:
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    13th round is just far too early for DEF’s anyway. yet you see even in money leagues maybe 6-8 owners (in 12’ers) do that just that.

    1. 12 team 2 QB half PPR dynasty. we have a 3 round slow draft about finishing up it’s 1st round. i just got haskins at 1.10 (could’ve went fitz, which would’ve guaranteed me this year 3 starters with rosen already owned, but long term this seems better). i never want to have less than 4 possibly starting QB’s here (we have deep enough benches to do this)
    QB: mahomes (him i own only since i used my 1st rounder 2 years ago, knowing full well he’d not likely start till last year), rodgers, rosen, haskins
    RB (2): kamara, ingram, michael, gus the bus, burkhead, ekeler
    WR (3): thielen, k.allen, boyd, edelman, crowder, watkins, m.lee
    TE (1): ertz, doyle
    2 R/W/T flexes
    kicker: DAL kicker
    DEF: none now (ended year with TEN from a good matchup)
    IDP (4 flexes): b.martinez, j.adams, d.jones (ATL)
    IR (2): t.smith (JAX)

    i’m now rostered up and will have to drop somebody in 5 picks (snake draft). later i’ll have to drop somebody for my 4th IDP flex and a DEF and whoever i get in the 3rd round.

    1. what’s my drop order (2 of which’ll be dropped during draft as i go, 2 more later): thinking some mix of doyle, burkhead, gus the bus (but those are double handcuffs for michel/ingram) m.lee/crowder. if i drop a RB i’ll replace with somebody as i do it.

    2. best guy to target coming up now (some of these might be gone shortly):
    RB: j.hill (possibly a better handcuff to ingram), mattison, singletary, d.harris (possibly a better handcuff to michel)
    WR: j.gordon, j.brown, MVS, gallup, enunwa, deebo, aj brown, m.brown (BAL), metcalf, parris,
    TE: hoch, m.andrews, fant, d.walker

  4. Bluety says:
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    12 team 1/2 PPR AND I HAVE 8TH PICK. SHOULD I KEEP CHUBB 9TH ROUND OR MAHOMES 12TH

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      Mahomes!

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