Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey.
Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 2, we will do a quick analysis of the list of 82 wide receivers who finished the week with at least 30 air yards.
Market Share of Air Yards: Top 5 in Week 1
These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 2.
Brandin Cooks (171 air yards, 68.1%) – Cooks is second in the NFL in air yards and first in air yards market share after back to back games of more than 130 air yards. But considering how well Tyrod Taylor was playing, the question becomes can targets from Davis Mills (even if they are voluminous) lead to downfield success? Regardless, with Nico Collins hurt, this is the safest bet in the NFL to lead his team in targets each week.
Courtland Sutton (258 air yards, 66.3%) – After Jerry Jeudy was hurt in Week 1, it was easy to see this one coming, but Sutton still smashed in a huge way. Sutton’s 259 air yards this week beat Tyreek Hill’s phenomenal mark of 231 last week by 28 yards! Expect elite production until Jeudy is eased back in.
Justin Jefferson (124 air yards, 61.1%) – The fact that Jefferson saw 61% of the air yards on just 10 targets should tell us that he is getting all the downfield, high-value throws. Adam Thielen (4.0 aDOT) and KJ Osborn (7.8 aDOT) can’t hold a candle to Jefferson downfield (12.4 aDOT) and soon these targets are going to start turning into long touchdown catches.
Michael Pittman (147 air yards, 57.9%) – Pittman’s share of the air yards shot up to 58% from 16.4% in Week 1 thanks in part to Parris Campbell missing the game with an injury, but we expected a jump for that reason. An underreported part of the bump is that both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines dropped from more than a 20% target share in Week 1 to under 6%. Until we see this situation play out a little more, I’ll withhold judgment on Pittman being an air yards king.
Marquise Brown (140 air yards, 56.7%) – Well, swing and a miss on this one from me last week. I called Hollywood Brown a negative regression candidate after Week 1 considering he caught every target including a lucky touchdown. But I’ve changed by tune after Week 2 when Brown’s targets jumped to 10 and it is clear he is now the featured receiver when the Ravens pass.
Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20
These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.
Corey Davis (32 air yards, 10.8%) – I have been scouring the Twitter machine trying to figure out why Davis only ran 66% of routes in Week 2 after a smashing performance in Week 1. It probably wouldn’t have mattered, because Davis would have to run 300 routes to get a reasonable fantasy outcome with how Zach Wilson was playing on Sunday. Chalk it up to a learning curve for a new quarterback.
Van Jefferson (34 air yards, 15.5%) – Got this prediction right at least when it was noted last week that Jefferson had an unsustainable 29.0 aDOT and small 11% target share. The aDOT plummeted to 11.3 in Week 2 and target share remained small at 10%. Jefferson belongs on the waiver wire.
DeAndre Hopkins (41 air yards, 15.1%) – After Hopkins caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and a score early in Week 2, the Vikings absolutely smothered him the rest of the way, leading to the explosions for Rondale Moore and Maxx Williams. His target share should be back up near 30% in the weeks to come. No need to worry here.
Positive Regression Candidate
A.J. Brown (172 air yards, 43 receiving yards) – Brown had the tweet of the week after his awful performance against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.
Someone from my family told me I wouldn’t have caught COVID today if I tried too Lmao
— AJ Brown (@1kalwaysopen_) September 20, 2021
Brown was targeted a strong nine times, but he was only able to come down with three of them. His aDOT was also an elite 19.1 yards. He ended the day with just 5.8 fantasy points, but that should have been much, much higher. Better days are ahead.
Negative Regression Candidate
Quez Watkins (59 air yards, 117 receiving yards) – While everyone is talking about how Rondale Moore balled out on Sunday, Watkins is getting almost no love for very similar production. Moore had 114 receiving yards and a score on just 29 air yards. Watkins put up 117 on only 59 of his own air yards.
The difference? Moore demanded eight targets in his limited snaps while Watkins only saw two. A crazy 91-yard play accounted for the majority of Watkins’ production. On that play the defender lost his footing on a nice move by Watkins, but 90+ yard plays are not something that we can count on moving forward. Watkins had three catches for 23 yards in Week 1 and will take a backseat to Devonta Smith, the tight ends and the running backs when this offense is humming.
Kupp Check
This will be the weekly place where we check how Cooper Kupp is breaking the air yards model.
The fantasy and DFS god from Week 2 did it to us again, destroying the air yards formula with all his yards-after-catch sweetness. Kupp finished second on the week with 163 receiving yards. His air yards, however, ranked 32nd (91 yards) and was only that high thanks to the 11 targets from Matthew Stafford.
At some point when we have more data I will look into exactly how Kupp gets his yards after the catch, but for now just enjoy the week-winning fantasy production and the 40-burgers in DFS.
Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards
Cole Beasley (11 air yards) – Something’s up in Buffalo, and those who invested in this elite offense are left scratching their heads after two weeks. Is Bad Josh Allen back? Surely not. But how do you explain just 11 air yards for Beasley? More importantly, how do you explain just four targets and 36 receiving yards in a game where the Bills moved the ball at will and scored five touchdowns? Curious.
Anthony Schwartz (16 air yards) – Week 1’s breakout receiver (126 air yards, 69 receiving yards, 19.2% market share) was a major bust on Sunday. Even without Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry lost on the first drive, Schwartz had one target and no catches all game. First, the Browns didn’t need to throw much in the second half with a big lead. Second, the tight ends drew 12 of the 19 targets on Sunday. With the tight ends that involved and Beckham likely back in Week 3, Schwartz may have seen his best week of the year already.
Juju Smith-Schuster (17 air yards) – I can safely guarantee Smith-Schuster won’t see a number this low should Diontae Johnson miss any games with injury. Johnson did not practice on Wednesday, so we may need to prepare for Smith-Schuster to grab the possession receiver role for at least one week. Smith-Schuster did have seven targets this week, albeit with a microscopic 2.4 aDOT. Juju will step in and take a large chunk of Johnson’s 30% target share if injury keeps him out.
I’m not even going to mention Tyreek Hill (17 air yards). Ok, maybe I will just for a second. The Ravens double-teamed him from the opening whistle leading to only four targets and 14 receiving yards on the night. When things like that happens, Byron Pringle gets big plays, he gets a Pringles endorsement, basically the world gets turned upside down. It’s a fluke. Don’t panic. Hill will be fine.