NFL.com just came out with their fantasy games and accessories for the 2010 season.  I’m waiting for Yahoo to do the same so we can get some Razzball on Razzball dynasty action going.  But while we wait, I thought I’d take a look at NFL.com’s Top 200 for 2010.  I am usually a fan of individual position rankings over overall rankings, but they all have their place in our fantasy world.

No set of rankings are infallible, so I’m not here to ridicule their rankings, but to learn from them (and maybe ridicule a little).  When doing my overall rankings it is often difficult to take into consideration a players ADP while at the same time consider whether I think I would reach for a certain player and how far ahead of their ADP.  So of course overall rankings can’t be followed blindly when actually drafting, but I try my hardest to get them as close as possible to doing just that.

At first glance I see a big problem in their top 10, three quarterbacks!  #5 Aaron Rodgers, #6 Drew Brees, and #9 Peyton Manning.  On their front page they write, “As the NFL has become more of a passing league, quarterbacks have taken on added importance in fantasy football.”  Hrm?  Yes, NFL teams are throwing more and more and are successful doing so.  There were a record ten QB’s with over 4,000 yard passing.  Both Super Bowl teams were led by elite fantasy QB’s.  The writing is on the wall!  So why do I need to draft a QB 5th overall?  Are these rankings for 2 QB leagues?  With the movement toward more passing, and running backs by committee, elite running backs are even more valuable than ever.

Conventional wisdom has always told us to draft RB’s first and QB’s later.  When there were fewer QB’s racking up huge numbers, that wisdom might not have been completely wise, but now, when you only need one QB, and you can most likely get one in the 4th or 5th round that will pass for 4,000 yards and 25+ touchdowns, it just seems like a waste to grab one in the first round, especially if Rodgers doesn’t rush for 5 TDs again.

#17 Shonn Greene and #18 Jamaal Charles are both fairly close to where I have them when you take into consideration all of the quarterbacks they have pushing their rankings back.  It is interesting to see where people are valuing Greene, Charles and Wells.  Many people are afeared of Tomlinson, Tom Jones, and Timmy Hightower destroying their numbers.  Of course that is a concern, but with the amount of RBBCs out there I feel comfortable grabbing the superior back of the committees.

#23 Desean Jackson is ahead of #24 Miles Austin, #27 Calvin Johnson, #28 Roddy White, #29 Vincent Jackson, and #30 Brandon Marshall.  Yes, they are all very close, but I think DJax is getting too much credit for his propensity for huge plays last season.  Yes, he was unbelievable, but I just don’t see him repeating last season.  Celek and Maclin are going to be big targets for Kolb and the ball will be more evenly distributed.

#36 Joseph Addai to #37 Beanie Wells seems like a over reaction to Addai’s 10 touchdowns while Donald Brown was injured and Tim Hightower’s 8 touchdowns while Beanie was learning blocking schemes.  When I look at these two situations I see Addai losing carries to the 2011 starter, Donald Brown and Wells’ superior ability leaving Hightower high in the tower where maybe a prince might save him, but I doubt it.

#71 Hakeem Nicks is behind, well, a lot of wide receivers.  I think Nicks will be the Giants #1 receiver this season and even though I don’t love Eli, he did pass for over 4,000 yards last season and Nicks will have every opportunity to take a big chunk of those, along with 8-10 TDs.

#77 Clinton Portis could be the starting running back for the Natives, but there is no way I will draft him in the 7th round when I could get Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Darren McFadden, or a pile of feces instead.  I may be wrong about Portis.  He may stay healthy all year long and be a serviceable RB for your team, but I believe the over under on games he will get 20+ touches should be around eight.  First he has to win the job over Larry Johnson.  Not that tough, but it’s not a given.  Secondly, he averaged about five ailments per game last season and he isn’t getting any younger.

Overall their rankings are fine, but I think they are doing a disservice with their QB rankings.  Yes, I would love to have Rodgers, Brees or Manning on my team, but unless you are drafting with morons, your RB’s and WR’s are going to be sad to worthless.  I actually will probably take a QB earlier than I usually do, but it won’t be in the first 2 rounds.  I hope to get one in the 5th, but could see going a little earlier if the right guy dropped.  I’ll be mocking it up to see what the trends will be this season and I’ll report back.  Don’t worry, I’ll be careful.

  1. ep says:
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    I talked the crazy draft-a-QB-early talk myself after the NFL draft. Not sure I’ll be able to pull the trigger — I’d rather have the likes of an S-Jax, MJD or Gore — but picking a QB is a thought.

    If I got a little nuts, I could talk myself out of just about every one of the top 10 RBs — MJD is the lone exception.

    You’re right, no way Maustin should be behind D-Jax.

    I like Nicks to be A1 for the NYGs too. Steve Smith will lead in catches, Nicks will lead in fantasy points.

    Great article. Rankings are great, but rankings reviews are even better. Ideas and opinions bouncing all over the place.

  2. DSimms says:
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    not sure if this post is too old to ask a question on but am I crazy thinking cadillac williams is a good value this year?

    Also in an auction how would schaub compare to romo’s price?

  3. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @DSimms: I’m worried about Caddy’s injury history. Even though he played in every game last season he was still on the injury report a lot. I don’t see any reason to not grab him if you can get him at the right price, but I’m not looking for a Cedric Benson resurgence.

    Schaub should go for a few more bucks, but Romo could come very close to his production. A lot of people are high on Romo and someone could overbid and I would then lean toward Schaub.

  4. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @ep: Agreed, rankings in a vacuum are fairly worthless.

    I don’t think I could ever take a QB in the first round, but possibly if all the other drafters had the same strategy and were skipping QB’s I would take one later in the 2nd round.

  5. Howard says:
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    @Doc, just a note that Yahoo leagues are open for business!

  6. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Howard: Cool, thanks.

  7. tourinct says:
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    I’ve done a few mocks in the last couple weeks, and QB’s are going really high, last one got me McNabb in the 5th. Comments?

  8. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @tourinct: You have to go with the flow there. You may have to jump on a guy earlier than you want. McNabb in the fifth is tough, but of course if that what was left. I think I’ll be using Big Ben as my backup in case I have to settle for a guy I don’t want.

  9. tourinct says:
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    Thoughts on Ryan, he seems to be falling where I would usually grab a QB, 7th of 8th?

  10. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @tourinct: I like Ryan more than McNabb. I see him as a top 10-12 QB with upside. I will probably end up with Cutler myself. He is going around Ryan range in the 7th round.

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