Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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I know the climb has been brutal for you, as it has for us all. This past Sunday my eyes froze over as I watched many of my teams drop under .500 for the first time. As I write this, I am enduring Jason Witten hand me a loss one excruciating 3 yard catch after another. This section of the season is the darkest grind when the post-draft excitement has long worn off but the playoffs are still far away. Injuries and bye massacres come for us all, but it’s how we respond that defines us.

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This will be the second installment of Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As the sun sets on another blistering day on the slope, you reflect on this journey. The hot tea emits a fragrance that escapes the metal mug and warms your cracked, weathered face. There have been terrifying challenges, victorious accomplishments and many days where the best you can do is just grind.

But here you are, with week 9 approaching and you’re still breathing. Even if your team is battered and bruised at 0-8 or 1-7, use this week to stash a trade chip or keeper for next year. All leagues should have some incentive for the unfortunate teams to not give up, even if its just a keeper feature. If you sit at 2-6 or better, there is still time. Take it one week at a time and just keep moving.

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I have been following a simple metric this season for running backs: weighted opportunities (WO) per game. This summer I found that WO/g correlated strongly with fantasy points (FP) per game with an R2 of 0.88 based off 2018 numbers. Granted, this was a small sample size of only 1 year but it’s all the data I had.

In a nutshell, the idea is that players should have a FP/WO ratio of about 1, and if they are above that they are either very efficient or lucky (probably via TDs). If they are below that number, the inverse is assumed. In that piece I identified 4 backs that looked like strong buys this offseason, so let’s see if FP/WO helped.

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Greetings from the cold, barren edge of the Earth! Had a mishap last week and had to spend the last 10 days in the infirmary. Turns out, boiling water is not the best way to warm up frostbitten toes. Believe me I’d much rather spend that time out on the mountain where I’m in control of my own destiny instead of being at the whim of those doctors. The good news is that I’m back and ready to lead our motley crew up to the summit!

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I’m not going to sugarcoat it, this team is an abomination. While the names on the jerseys indicate point scoring should be better, there is no excuse for being 150 points behind 7th place out of 8 teams. THERE’S ONLY 113 POINTS BETWEEN 7TH AND 1ST. Truly a special bunch, I haven’t seen this level of ineptitude since my son’s 3rd grade rendition of Macbeth. And the ending is projecting to be at least as tragic.

There really isn’t a trade to make as virtually no one on this team is playing very well, so any move would be selling low and not netting a return that is going to boost KJ up the standings. Being this far down the totem pole, you have little leverage in a redraft league. The players that should produce just need to start breaking out.

I do think that DeAndre Hopkins gets right this week. I expect Watson to force feed him against the Chiefs like he did Fuller last week. At RB, Le’Veon Bell has been seeing all the work but the Jets’ offense has been grounded since losing Sam Darnold to a spin-the-bottle mishap. LVB should see a bump in production, but I don’t know if it will be enough to pry this team from the dank crypt it currently resides in. TE continues to be a dead zone but there is surprisingly some hope on the wire.

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Your body hurts and your lungs sting with every breath of freezing air. I know that many days you regret this adventure. Like that one time you benched DJ Chark, or when you blew the top waiver priority on Wayne Gallman. It can get bleak on the mountain, I won’t lie about that.

There is excitement in the challenge, however. Even if you’re winless and feel like you’ve lost your way, don’t give up. I am old enough to have seen 0-5 teams advance to a championship. Each week a new puzzle presents itself, and we just need to solve one at a time.

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Hey, we weren’t last this week! But there is still a lot of work to be done. Sitting in 8th place (out of 8) after 4 weeks may require some drastic changes. Because this is a total points league and not weekly head to head, my plan is to treat this team like a daily fantasy tournament lineup. A consistent floor won’t get KJ where he wants to be, so we need to be shooting for upside to make up some ground. What we’re looking for is weekly waiver fill-ins who should get touches in high scoring games and hope for the best. If it crashes, well KJ is no worse for the wear.

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It can get lonely out on the mountain. Some days the only conversation you’ll get is wind whipping around your earlobes and your heart beating inside your chest. It is only week 5 but we have reached an altitude now where most animals prefer not to venture. The elements are brutal and food is scarce. I hope you aren’t in need because there is not much meat on this weeks bone. Sometimes you just have to pretend you’re not hungry.

Each week, I will list intriguing players owned in no more than 30% of leagues per ESPN. For a primer on additional roster management and waiver wire principals read this. At the end I will also point out some players that can be safely dropped for a better option.

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