A sleeper is not a handcuff. Handcuffs are players who, in the event of an injury, can be projected to inherit significant playing time. Sleepers are players that have an assumed role and stand-alone value but an increase in efficiency or volume will cause them to significantly out-perform their ADP. Handcuffs are largely not worth drafting because they require injury “luck” to be useful. However, sleepers are worth a late round selection because they can build momentum as roles are defined throughout the preseason. The goal of smart drafters should be to have this type of player rostered before the buzz escalates.

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Much noise has been made in fantasy circles about the Arizona Cardinals and the potential for a new-look, explosive offense in 2019. Some of the reasons to be excited for what Kliff Kingsbury will bring to the NFL were discussed in part 1 . Despite a lackluster 2018, David Johnson has seen his ADP remain at RB5/6 and Kyler Murray is being taken as a low end QB1 in the 8th round of redraft. A rookie QB has not been drafted that high since Robert Griffin III in 2011. But what about the pass catchers? Despite enthusiasm surrounding the offense in general, the beneficiaries of a supposed top 12 QB are not reaping rewards as it pertains to ADP. This is a gross mistake on the part of preseason drafters. To see this, it is helpful to refer to a chart of WR production in a Kingsbury offense:

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Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will feature elite pass volume and highlight QB rushing ability. Even if it fails, Kyler Murray is still going to score a lot of fantasy points. Don’t worry that he’s a rookie and buy at his current ADP. Close your eyes. Erase everything you know about the Arizona Cardinals from 2018. Stare […]

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