Continuing another similar piece to what I’ve been writing about this past week or so, today we’ll be taking a look at Explosive Play Rankings from Sharp Football Stats. Over the past week or so, I’ve been talking a lot about finding fantasy value and bargain players that come from the most successful offenses, or offenses that prioritize the pass or run compared to other teams. Well, today, we’ll be diving into Explosive Play Rankings, and finding out which offenses have explosive run games, and which offenses are explosive through the air. In turn, this should further help us on draft day by targeting lucrative offenses that will produce some of the best fantasy players. 

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There are many advanced stats and metrics in which to judge running backs by. But which are the top metrics to help us separate the best from the rest? Or to uncover a diamond in the rough? Well, thanks to the great work over at Football Outsiders, we have three innovative stats to judge RB’s by: DVOA, DYAR and Success Rate. 

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, represents a player’s value per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the performance. DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, gives us the value of the performance on plays where the back caught/carried the ball compared to the average replacement level. And finally, Success Rate represents the player’s consistency, measured by successful running plays.

Using data from 2018, let’s take a look at some of the leaders in the NFL in rushing DVOA, DYAR and Success Rate, to help us isolate the backs we should be targeting in drafts. 

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With so many great offenses in the NFL, we want as many pieces of the offensive pies as we can get. However, most of the top talent on each of the top offenses carry expensive ADP price tags with them, and are some of the most popular players in fantasy (thanks captain obvious). However, there are some instances across the NFL where we can get WR2 and 3’s on the top offenses for a fraction of the price of their counterparts, but still have some serious upside. Some of these options may even finish in the Top 20, giving us great return on a cheap price tag.

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When trying to determine which offenses to buy into this season for fantasy, it’s important to take a look back how offenses finished in three categories in 2018: Offensive Pace, Rushing Rate, and Passing Rate. 

These stats help us get a general sense of which offenses were run-heavy and which were pass-heavy, and which offenses operated at a fast or slow pace of production. If a certain offense prioritizes the run, and works at a slower pace, it shouldn’t necessarily mean that we should avoid all of their receivers or QB, it’s just good to know that the offensive design would typically favor their running backs instead, and vice versa. 

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Offensive lines won’t exactly make or break fantasy seasons for players; it’s always possible for teams to produce on offense even with a sub-par group up front. However, it’s important to take note of which units have succeeded and which have failed in helping keep their QB’s clean, and create gaps for running backs to accelerate through. 

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Thanks in part to 5 running backs finishing in the Top 10 in all fantasy positions last year, and with early ADP reports suggesting that we may see eight running backs go off the board in the first rounds of drafts, it’s no surprise that fantasy owners are going to be attacking this position from the […]

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What’s going on everyone, and welcome to the final week of the fantasy season (for those of you smart enough to not have a Week 17)! If you care about this post, congratulations on making it into the championship! The hard work shouldn’t stop now though, so let’s break down this upcoming week and talk about some players you should put in your lineup, and some you probably shouldn’t.

Let’s get to it!

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