This week has finally arrived. After 15 weeks of intense fantasy game action, as well as our summer months being jam-packed of fantasy research and draft prep, we have finally arrived to the holy grail of fantasy football: Week 16. It’s been one hell of a ride, but we still have some work to do.
Let’s get into this week’s Starts and Sits.
*Note* – All metrics are courtesy of Football Outsiders and Sharp Football Stats
Quarterbacks
Start ‘Em
Jameis Winston (vs. HOU) – Razzball Projection: #13 QB
Coming off of an absolutely dominant performance last week against the Lions, there is no need to move away from Jameis today. He’ll be facing a Texans defense that has given up some huge games recently to Ryan Tannehill and Drew Lock, and Jameis should continue the onslaught. He’s got Top-5 upside once again, and should help deliver a lot of fantasy championships this week.
Philip Rivers (vs. OAK) – Razzball Projection: #17 QB
Rivers had such an ugly Sunday last week against the Vikings, but I think he’ll bounce back in this matchup. He’ll get to square off against a Raiders defense at home, a team that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA. I think the Chargers offense, and specifically their passing game, will get back on track this week.
Drew Lock (vs. DET) – Razzball Projection: #21 QB
Well, Lock wasn’t invincible last Sunday against Kansas City in a blizzard, but this week sets up perfectly for a bounce-back opportunity. He’ll be at home against a Detroit Lions secondary that has given up some huge games recently to Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Mitch Trubisky. He’s a great streaming option for those that need it tomorrow.
Sit ‘Em
Josh Allen (@ NE) – Razzball Projection: #27 QB
While the Bills keep winning, Allen hasn’t exactly been a great fantasy QB. That will likely continue later today in a very tough spot for this offense as they head to face the Patriots on the road. I don’t have any confidence in Allen to produce for fantasy owners this week.
Jared Goff (@ SF) – Razzball Projection: #29 QB
Goff’s fantasy day was salvaged last week thanks to garbage time against the Cowboys, but that might not help him here. It’s a tough divisional draw for Goff and this Rams offense against the 49ers, a defense looking to bounce back after a shock defeat to Atlanta.
Baker Mayfield (vs. BAL) – Razzball Projection: #31 QB
While he did toss two TD’s last week against Arizona, time has run out for Mayfield and the Browns this year, especially in fantasy. While the Browns were productive earlier this year against Baltimore, this is a brand-new (and healthy) Ravens defense this go around. Mayfield can’t be trusted in the finals.
Running Backs
Start ‘Em
Joe Mixon (@ MIA) – Razzball Projection: #3 RB
Mixon has been a fantasy playoffs darling, as he’s now rushed for 282 yards over the past two weeks. This hot streak should continue against a Dolphins rush defense that ranks 29th in rush defense DVOA. Mixon should continue to get it done on the road in this spot, and should be a lock for all lineups.
Marlon Mack (vs. CAR) – Razzball Projection: #12 RB
Mack has been very slow out of the gate since his injury, but I like him to ramp it back up in this spot. While the Colts have been eliminated from postseason play, they should still remain competitive against a Panthers defense that has really struggled against the run, as they rank 32nd in rush defense DVOA. Mack is in a prime spot at home this Sunday.
DeAndre Washington (@ LAC) – Razzball Projection: #19 RB
Due to the status of Josh Jacobs, Washington will be the Raiders lead back against a Chargers rush defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL against the rush. While there are some blowout concerns, Washington should get enough production to remain a RB2/flex option for those that need an option, or for the Jacobs owners that are hurting with this news.
Sit ‘Em
Todd Gurley (@ SF) – Razzball Projection: #15 RB
While Gurley did find the endzone twice to save his fantasy day, he was far from being productive against the Cowboys last Sunday. It’ll be a much tougher time this week against a stout 49ers rush defense. If you have a better option that Gurley, I would go that route. I can’t trust him this week.
Le’Veon Bell (vs. PIT) – Razzball Projection: #13 RB
While we all enjoy a good ol’ fashioned revenge game, I don’t see Bell being productive at all on Sunday against his former team. This is a tough Steelers rush defense, one that ranks 3rd in rush defense DVOA. Bell isn’t a quality starting option this week.
David Montgomery (vs. KC) – Razzball Projection: #31 RB
While the Chiefs do struggle against the run, this is a good enough unit to cause Trubisky and the rest of this Bears offense issues in a game that screams blowout. I don’t think Montgomery’s floor is high enough to make him an enticing fantasy option this week.
Wide Receivers
Start ‘Em
Sterling Shepard (@ WAS) – Razzball Projection: #14 WR
In his past four games, Shepard is averaging 8 targets per game, including 11 targets last week against Miami. This is a Washington secondary that has given up some production to opposing receivers these past few weeks, and I like Shepard as a WR3/flex option this week.
Tyler Lockett (vs. ARI) – Razzball Projection: #23 WR
The Seahawks should be able to put up a bunch of points at home against a Cardinals secondary that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. With the suspension to Josh Gordon recently, Lockett should see an increased target share. He’s in a prime spot this week.
Tyler Boyd (@ MIA) – Razzball Projection: #32 WR
Boyd and the rest of the Bengals pass-catchers are in a prime spot against a Dolphins secondary that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA. I like the Bengals offense to produce this week.
Sit ‘Em
John Brown (@ NE) – Razzball Projection: #26 WR
This is a Patriots secondary that is the best in the biz right now, and Brown isn’t doing enough to remain in our lineups for the final week of the fantasy season.
Cooper Kupp (@ SF) – Razzball Projection: #53 WR
With Robert Woods taking over this passing game, Kupp has slipped these past few weeks. With a tough matchup against the 49ers secondary looming, I don’t feel great about his chances to produce.
Tyrell Williams (@ LAC) – Razzball Projection: #62 WR
I don’t mind DeAndre Washington for the Raiders run game, but I can’t really trust the Raiders passing game on the road this week against this Chargers secondary that looked bad last week, but on the year, rank middle-of-the-pack. Even still, this Raiders passing game doesn’t inspire me one bit, and Williams isn’t projected well according to our system.
Tight Ends
Start ‘Em
Jacob Hollister (vs. ARI) – Razzball Projection: #4 TE
Like we’ve been doing all season long, the Cardinals cannot cover opposing Tight Ends, and because of this, Hollister is a very intriguing streaming option at the position. He’s got massive upside.
O.J. Howard (vs. HOU) – Razzball Projection: #7 TE
Due to the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Howard could see an increased target share against a defense that has had issues guarding TE’s this season. Howard is a fine play.
Sit ‘Em
Jimmy Graham (@ MIN) – Razzball Projection: #31 TE
Against the Vikings in Week 2, Graham was held to just one target for zero yards. Yeah, no thanks.
Kickers and D/ST
Start ‘Em
Dan Bailey (vs. GB) – Razzball Projection: #7 K
The Vikings should be able to move the ball easily on Monday night, and Bailey should have plenty of opportunities to cash in.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. CAR) – Razzball Projection: #12 DEF
If you need a wild-card streaming option, the Colts defense could cause problems for Will Grier, who will be getting his first NFL start this Sunday.
Sit ‘Em
Greg Zuerlein (@ SF)– Razzball Projection: #27 K
A talented kicker for sure, but I don’t like this offense’s ability to move the ball down the field against a 49ers defense looking to rebound after a shock loss to Atlanta.
Green Bay Packers (@ MIN) – Razzball Projection: #28 DEF
Even though the Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook in the backfield, I still don’t like the Packers defensive unit enough for fantasy purposes.
Good luck to everyone this week, and thank you so much for reading this column throughout the season, I really appreciate it.
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