Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Bankroll: $1207 (last week + $117)
Record: 17-8 (last week 4-0)
Locks: 5-2 (last week 1-0)
$40 New Orleans at Denver Over 55.5 – Do you even need to ask? Saints 5-1 on the over this year with a spectacular 49 points scored in the first half alone last week; that was with Josh Freeman on the other side slinging it up and down. Now the Saints are going up against Peyton Williams Manning! And here’s the kicker: this is Peyton’s first chance to revenge the Super Bowl loss of 2010; you can bet the farm Manning has not forgotten. #iwillalwaysbeteverysaintsgameover. Broncos 49 Saints 38.
$40 San Diego -2.5 at Cleveland – This is the start of four straight bets on road teams. I don’t particularly like it, but hey, I feel like I am getting reasonable lines with good squads, and I couldn’t pick between them, so they all make the cut. The Chargers are 2-1 on the road this year and the Browns are 1-2 at home this year. The only number two average in this game will be Hardesty’s average yards per carry. That’s what happpens when your top option Trent Richardson is the brunt of McRib jokes. When is the McRib coming back anyways? Chargers 24 Browns 20.
$20 Miami +1 at New York Jets – Even though the Jets have been playing some pretty competitive football the last few weeks, I can’t take them serious. They make me laugh. When they trot out Tebow for random plays throughout the game, it’s like they are betting on the other team to win. That is exactly what I will be doing by betting on a better and more consistent Dolphins team. Dolphins 23 Jets 17.
$40 New York Giants -1 (Lock) at Dallas – What have the Cowboys shown us to make us think they deserve to be bet on in this game? They have not a single impressive performance in the last 6 weeks. Let’s look at some of Dallas’ injuries: their best running back, DeMarco Murray, is doubtful to return from an ankle injury, leaving the keys to the car to a overrated Felix Jones (I’d rather have Phillip Tanner on my team); Dez Bryant is nursing a lower body injury adding to his upper body injury of no hands; starting center Phil Costa went down with an injury last week, leaving him questionable for this game; starting linebacker and leading tackler Sean Lee is out for the year with a toe injury (funny how a small body part can lead to a large absence); Tony Romo will miss…wait, sorry, this hasn’t happened yet and you didn’t read anything about it here. Got it? So, we have a Dallas team which is playing poorly and full of injuries; not what they looked like in week one. The Giants on the other hand just find ways to win. And you can bet they want to seek revenge for the week one loss to the Cowboys. In fact, we are betting on it. Giants 27 Cowboys 21.
$20 Atlanta +2.5 at Philadelphia – The Eagles just fired their defensive coordinator, Michael Vick turns the ball over more than a kicker’s ball flight, they are not the better team in this matchup, and they are favorites. Give me the team with no fired coaches, the better quarterback, an undefeated record, and plus any points you want to give me. Falcons 27 Eagles 20.
Total Wagered – $200
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,193 (last week: +$66)
Record: 17-11-1 (last week: 3-2)
Locks: 4-2-1 (last week: 1-0)
$50 Indianapolis +3.5 at Tennessee (LOCK OF THE WEEK): This is the sort of game I love to see. Tennessee is 3-4 and on a two-game winning streak, but they are worse at football than General Skroob is at setting a combination to his luggage. The Titans three wins have come by a combined seven points. So even if they’re going to win, this spread is an easy cover. But let’s look at those wins. One was a Week Three victory where mis-communication led to Shaun Hill, pressed into action, foolishly trying to run a play to convert a first down rather than kick a field goal to extend overtime. There was last week’s game, where Buffalo made like Chumbawamba and pissed the night (and a late 4th-quarter lead) away. And they had the fortune to be playing a Thursday night game at home, which alone makes you about sixty percent to win based on recently history. This is not a team worthy of being a game below .500, it’s not a team that can beat the Colts by more than three points, and it’s an easy pick for lock of the week.
$40 Indianapolis at Tennessee OVER 47: Why else won’t Tennessee win? They’re giving up a league-worst 34 points per game on defense. Indianapolis isn’t doing great either, allowing 26.3 points per contest. Yeah, that’s over sixty in case you were having some trouble with the math. Yes, their offenses are combining for just 40.8 points per game, but even if you meet in the middle of those two numbers you end up narrowly over. Since each offense has shown the ability to put up big totals, that shouldn’t be a concern.
$20 New York Jets -1 vs. Miami: The Jets have a +4 point differential at home against a -17 mark on the road. Miami is -19 on the road against +22 at home. See a trend here? There’s also that whole thing where the Jets already beat the Dolphins 23-20… in Miami. That was even the game where Darrelle Revis was injured. Ignore all the trash talking going on between these two teams, the aggregate numbers suggest New York should be able to squeak out a win.
$20 Green Bay -14.5 vs. Jacksonville: This is, admittedly, a huge number. And I got burned by a huge number last week with New England. So, yeah, I’m as leery as Peter Parker asking out Mary Jane. But this line opened the week at 16.5, so “it’s a huge line, Jacksonville just has to cover” has obviously driven a lot of the betting action. Why though? Blaine Gabbart is out. And as bad as he’s been, you have to suspect Chad Henne has been stinking it up like Limburger in practice to sit on the bench behind him. Maurice Jones-Drew is out, replaced by Rashard Jennings. The game is in Lambeau. The two games Jacksonville has played against elite teams this year have resulted in a 27-7 loss (vs. Houston) and a 41-3 loss (vs. Chicago). And those games were in Florida! I’m thinking this one is so far out of hand at the end that we see some of Graham Harrell before it’s all said and done.
$30 New York Giants -1 at Dallas: This is going to surprise all of you who aren’t from upstate New York, but there actually different regions in the state. And some of us who don’t consider anything north of the Bronx “upstate” (and yes, those people do exist in droves). I’m actually pretty much equidistant between Buffalo and “the city,” which means there’s actually a huge helping of Giants fans around, not just an infestation of Bills supporters, like you might imagine. Why do I share all of this? Because I really kind of hate the Giants. I hate how the mythos of Eli has been inflated by his two Super Bowl victories, especially when the latter involved a team with a negative point differential barely squeaking into the playoffs and mostly being carried by a surprising defense. So again, what’s the point? If I of all people can admit that the Giants are just flat out better than the Cowboys (and their negative point differential this year) with an excellent chance to go into Dallas and wipe the floor with the Cowboys, then you should be able to as well. Call the previous game fluky and expect the G-Men to pull even in the season series.
$40 New Orleans +6 at Denver: I was probably taking the points no matter who got them in this game. These are two high-flying teams set for a vast improvement in the second half of the season. In addition to being high-scoring, this game should be close and decided by no more than four points.
$40 New Orleans at Denver OVER 55.5: #iwillbeteverysaintsgameover – Zorboss had this covered.
$10 Washington +4.5 at Pittsburgh: When you see the uniforms the Steelers are wearing, you’ll understand. I absolutely want a reason to root against them.
Total wagered: $250
So what are your picks heading into week eight of the National Football League?