So it was an odd week to be a Seahawks fan and a rooter for the underdog turned belle of the ball Cowboys. My emotions were – much like the shirts of someone going 80’s chic – torn but in reality, it was just a good game plan by the Cowboys and a really disjointed one for Pete Carroll and company. You said ‘joint’. Good grief, Washingtonians, really? THAT’s all you got outta that? Moving along, let’s look a bit into the troubled world of the Seattle offense for a moment, shall we? Truthfully, it’s funny to think of them as troubled. I’d like to say more ‘directionless’ than troubled. But good teams have bad games. Let them pass and move along and take advantage of the cheap offers they create in the DK world. Looking at Percy Harvin, it’s hard to explain how he’s not seeing the ball more. He’s the most dynamic offensive player Seattle has but has been targeted 26 times in five games. That’s a pace of 83 targets on the year. To put that in perspective, Emmanuel Sanders is on pace for 153 and he’s not even the primary target in Denver. I think Seattle comes out embarrassed, hungry and angry against the Rams and I think Harvin will do a good amount of damage…as long as the refs don’t call all the TDs back this time. #NeverForget. In all, at $4,100 he makes for a nice low priced option with huge upside that leaves you room to spend up elsewhere as needed. So with that, let’s move on. Here’s some more hot takes for the week 7 DK slate for 2014 Fantasy Football…
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Andrew Luck, QB: $9,700 – Queue the black colonel Sanders. If you roster Luck, that leaves you $5,037 per remaining position. I don’t have to tell you how hard it’ll be to roster a solid team with that but I think he’ll trend highly in cash games because people will find value elsewhere. We shall see, though. The cash vs GPP debate is always about how many people talk up or talk down a player, rarely about the price itself.
Aaron Rodgers, QB: $8,800 – Not pointing anything amazing out here but Aaron is probably your safest cash game play on Sunday. The matchup and being at home put him in a great spot to cash in on his price. That said, he’s almost in the Luck range so you’re gonna have to be thrifty elsewhere and I’ve seen your grocery bills. Organic, cage-free tortillas? What does that even mean? Pairing him with $8,200 Jordy Nelson is both smart and financial death to the rest of your squad but I’d love to see someone do it (PS, I don’t think I will be without some cheap players starting via injury news or a glitch in the DK matrix).
Kirk Cousins, QB: $7,400 – Cousins is one of those nice anomalies at QB. You could start him AND the opposing defense he faces and do just fine. You could’ve done that last week and received his 22 points while the Cards racked up a decent amount of points plus a pick 6. It’s a win/win all around. Ok, probably not this week. It’s the Titans. They’re competing with the Jags for NFL punching bag. I’m not sure how you ‘win’ this but they’re doing their darndest on all facets right now. My only fear in this game is that the Titans are fairly awful against the run; we might see more Alf than we see gunslinger Kirk.
Matt Ryan, QB: $6,500 – So first, let’s go over the positives: Julio Jones. Ok, now that we’ve got the positives out of the way, let’s cover the negatives: typically worse on the road than at home, Roddy White is playing old, Devin Hester isn’t running at the right speed, Harry Douglas is probably out again, Levine Toilolo runs like how you’d picture a totem pole to run if it could, the offensive line is in complete disarray and Steven Jackson is playing older than Roddy is. Clearly the negatives outweigh the positives…wait, what? We all know Ryan can go for 300 and 3 TD. He’s done this before, he could do it again and I wouldn’t call Baltimore’s secondary fearsome by any means. There’s a lot of narrative to this call. Atlanta should play up after a bad game at home and Baltimore could deflate a bit after a huge laugher in Tampa but in the end, I expect Ryan will have to throw simply because Baltimore is the better team and should be ahead most of the game. Also, big thing to do in DFS especially for tourney calls: how many people will say ‘I’m not rostering x guy’. If Ryan gets that treatment, he’s a great contrarian play. Treat your ears like your scalloped potatoes and keep them peeled. BTW, fun stat from last week: 7 drops led to over 100 yards of lost for Ryan and a change in scope of the game. I wouldn’t bank on that repeating. Unless all of those targets were Roddy then it’s definitely possible.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $5,700 – Fair warning, this article is gonna be ridiculously long (that’s what she said). This is strictly a price point play. I don’t know how much upside Big Ben is gonna have as I don’t see them throwing the ball much nor needing to as you’ll soon read below. Now lower. Lower still. I told you this piece had a lot going on! But given how he burned most value seekers last week, many will be off him this week. Seriously, that’s how this shizz goes. I think I need to start a section called ‘Dogs of the DK Dow’ next week and just put guys like this in it. What say you, author? I like it, editor! Done and done.
Julio Jones, WR: $7,800 – The scorched Earth theory is alive here as well. ‘He burned me last week, I won’t roster him this week’. Same thing applies to Ryan but his price is nicer to work with. I’ll be singing me and Julio down by the school yard with a few teams this week.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $5,900 – My response to this price point. Sanders doesn’t have a TD so far this year. The 49ers are near the bottom in all the red zone categories against opposing WRs this year and Emmanuel just had his worst game of the year. All the signs are pointing down but you wanna know what’s pointing up? My erection, silly! Maybe I’m a little too happy about this Sanders pricing. Moving on…
Brandin Cooks, WR: $5,800 – At this stage, I’d call Brandin a cash game only play. He could get you 10 receptions but only net you 70 yards and probably won’t score a TD. Basically a cheap chance at 15 that you don’t have to break the bank for.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR: $5,600 – Speaking of red zone numbers, don’t let the red OPRK on DK fool you regarding the Packers’ wide out coverage as they’re giving up the third most RZ targets to opposing wide outs on the year and Kelvin has been the primary target for Cam so far this year, averaging 9.16 targets per game. Keep in mind Benjamin almost had a 2 TD game last week but was called for offensive pass interference on his second one. Given how much the odds makers like GB to win (-7), look for Carolina to be throwing often in the game.
Jarvis Landry, WR: $4,100 – Who? Yeah, who is right. It looks like Miami could be fading Hartline out of the receiver equation a bit after a 6 catch, 75 yard and a touchdown game from Jarvis. The game according to Vegas should stay close so all options should be on the table most of the game.
Odell Beckham, Jr, WR: $3,800- Not gonna lie, this would be a cash game only play most likely. Everyone knows Victor Cruz is done for the year and everyone knows ODB Jr should see an uptick in targets because of it. That said, at this price he’s a great WR3 punt option if you pay out the nose for Luck or…
DeMarco Murray, RB: $9,600 – I’m not gonna keep this brief. I’m a boxer guy myself. You’re not helping. Sorry. Simply put, the price is ridiculous BUT because there are so many other tasty options on the RB menu this week, I think he makes for a great GPP play. Who pays for a near 10K RB? The person who wants to get a big Murray line when no one else will, that’s who.
Le’Veon Bell, RB: $6,600 – First off, there’s ridiculous value at RB this week. I honestly didn’t know when/where to stop writing about them. Secondly, the Steelers keep saying all the right things all while doing the wrong things. They were supposed to get Bell in the endzone last week. THEY LIED. You always want to go with high potential and Bell is just that. Le’Veon has yet to score a touchdown on the year but Houston has been shredded by the run game this year. To prove the point, here’s a fun stat care of @Pat_Thorman. Considering the hype, he’ll probably be heavily owned in GPPs. Just keep that in mind when building your tourney roster. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t, it just means you’ll need to be contrary elsewhere.
Andre Ellington, RB: $6,500 – Seriously, can I just roster 10 RBs this week? Please? It’s the Raiders and the Raiders can be run on. Given that obvious call is obvious here, I’d put Ellington under the cash-only section of my plays for this week.
Justin Forsett, RB: $5,600 – Myself and a good twitter friend that I met in Chicago during the #32in32in32 tour with @NickCapozzi – @RealDaddyBigs – talked about most owned back this Sunday. I really thought it would be Forsett since he sits atop the matchup throne this week but I’m gonna wave an early white flag and say he’s right: it’ll be Bell. That said, makes it pretty sweet for me to get in on Forsett then. He rushed for 111 yards on 14 carries last week but don’t read too far into the minimal workload: 10 of his 14 carries were during the first half of a game that was decided by the 2nd quarter. Look for the Ravens to rely on the run game at home. Key stat for the Forsett call: the number ‘3’. That’s how many TDs Matt Asiata scored against them and we all know you can’t say ‘Asiata’ without saying ‘ass’.
Fred Jackson, RB: $5,500 – Speaking of the Vikings and ‘ass’…they’re the 4th worst against opposing running backs on the year and old man Jackson just keeps delivering. It’s hard to say FJax has extreme upside in that he’s not gonna be busting any 50+ yard runs for a TD at this stage in his career but with the full PPR stat, Fred could score 20 in his sleep against this team. Overall, I think the Bills are going to look to win time of possession and rely heavily on their running backs to win the game, putting Fred at more than likely 20 touches.
Ben Tate, RB: $5,300 – Your cash game running back for the week. The Browns are going to run the ball, and then run the ball, and then take a time out and then run some more. Last week, Tate saw the ball 25 times on the ground and finished with 2 TDs and 78 yards. Look for the rushing trend to continue for Cleveland against a porous Jags rushing front. Oh and yes, this does make Isaiah Crowell a solid get at $4,300 if Terrance West is again a healthy inactive.
Lamar Miller, RB: $5,300 – Opportunity breeds numbers and when you tack on talent, it makes for break out ability. Don’t be fooled by Chicago’s rush defense being 6th best according to DK standards. They haven’t really been challenged on the ground by many teams so far nor have they faced a top flight back yet. Well unless you wanna include Lacy because you drafted him 5th overall but yeah frog tea on that one. I would never call Lamar a top flight RB but he does have great potential and if he can see the ball more than the 17 times he did last week – which turned into 17.3 DK points, btw – he could turn it into a huge game and guess what? Moreno is out so the chance for 25 touches is there for him. The question is, just how stupid are the Dolphins? Wait, don’t answer that, you’ll ruin my Lamar call.
Alfred Morris, RB: $4,700 – Guess who your leader in INT is at QB? C’mon guess! Yup, it’s Cousins. Morris has been shut down in back to back weeks by the Cards and the Seahawks. No surprise there, both teams are good against the rush. Tennessee, meanwhile, is middle of the road drifting towards bad against opposing backs and get the lucky stat of the Jags last week whose RBs tallied 44 yards on 18 carries. That’s a 2.44 average. They average 3.5 ypc on the year and that includes Henne and Bortles rushing totals. So basically, they held them to a little under their average. Bravo! Color me not impressed. Look for Washington to pound the ball this week. Morris is a safe cash game play that’s a nice go if you’re paying up for Luck.
Jerick McKinnon, RB: $4,700 – The stats have me saying no but my body has me saying yes. The Vikings are in a rough stretch in terms of defensive opponents, getting polished by the Lions at home this weekend and now get to face a stifling Bills defense that ranks first against the run in Buffalo country. Tall task for a rookie RB but let’s take note of two things. One, Detroit ain’t no slouch against the run themselves and McKinnon still piled up 14.2 DK points on them. Two, the Bills haven’t faced the most talented of running backs so far this year and the one time they did get one – Matt Forte – they gave up 82 on 17 carries. The Vikes are gonna rely on their run game to keep the turnovers down and McKinnon is finally getting his shot to shine, outsnapping Asiata 48 to 15 last week. I’d call Jerick strictly a tourney play at this point. If you get cold feet, Joique Bell or Ronnie Hillman make for great near pivot points at $4,800. See what I did there? Three RBs in one blurb. I’m tellin ya, too much good stuff here!
Travis Kelce, TE: $4,800 – More stat deception. The Chargers give up the least amount of DK points to opposing Tight Ends. Oh…so what TE would YOU throw to if you were the QB for the Cardinals, Seahawks, Bills, Jags, Jets, or Raiders, hrm? Needless to say, the competition hasn’t been that stiff for San Diego and Kelce represents the most physically gifted one they’ve faced this year. If people fade on the matchup, you can take advantage in GPP.
Dwayne Allen, TE: $3,700 – Very few matchups are screaming value to me this week at TE but a Luck red zone favorite going against the team that gives up the most DK points to opposing TEs on the year at $3,700? My reaction. Well, minus the pretty and the boobs and the blonde part, of course. An out of nowhere game in which Coby Fleener actually catches the passes thrown to him aren’t out of the question here either, fam.
Larry Donnell, TE: $3,500 – So you wanna be cheaper and more desperate, eh? Well how about Donnell and his 1 catch in two games, how does that strike you? To be fair, he almost had a great catch in the end zone on Sunday but it was negated by a penalty. Keep in mind not all the wealth of the Cruz targets will go to ODB Jr. Larry Donnell might be a thing again.
Josh Hill, TE: $3,000 – No Jimmy Graham? No problem just turn to Josh Hill…amiright? Yeah, only a call if you need a bottom of the barrel price to go with a heavy offense elsewhere but this is really a shot in the whudat dark.
Detroit Lions, DST: $3,200 – Priced out at middle of the road and going against Drew Brees, some would say this is not a good get but let’s realize a few things. One, the Lions defense overall is in fact good. Two, Drew has thrown 6 INTs so far this year which is 7th worst in the league right now. Three, there’s no Jimmy Graham to chuck to and his security blanket of Colston is aging faster than a beach bum’s skin. Speaking of, why don’t more of them bum for some SPF 50 instead of cigarettes? Y’all are gonna look like luggage when you get older or worse: George Hamilton. The Vegas odds makers have this game as the highest O/U at 52 on the weekend and given the set up, I’m not really sure why. But given they missed both high O/U last week, it might be a time for them to check their algorithms cuz I’m pretty sure it’s busted for this game.
Dallas Cowboys, DST: $3,000 – Dallas isn’t the most exciting defensive get and I wouldn’t say the matchup is foolproof in anyway but some things to consider. The Cowboys are third in the NFL in time of possession. Basically limiting the opportunity for opposing offenses to get going or for their defense to suck. Given the shaky nature of the Giants’ offensive line at the moment, this could turn into a sackfest.
Washington Football Team, DST: $2,600 – This is the mantra of picking on QBs who complete less than 60% of their passes a game. Jake Locker? 58%. Check. Charlie Whitehurst? 58.3%. Double Check. Obviously, the stats favor a QB against Washington but I don’t abide by that logic when presented with loose cannon arm Locker and checkdown Charlie. If you’re looking to save a few bucks at DEF, this is the way I’d lean.
