Howdy all, your boy Young Ralph Lifshitz is in the building, and I’m covering Daily Fantasy at DraftKings for the Legend (wait for it) Dary Sky. Just in case you’re wondering, Sky is fine, and certainly not bound and duct-tapped in the trunk of my 1998 Lincoln Mach VIII. From what I hear, Sky is in the Poconos with the Mrs. for a week of horse racing and cuddles and bubbles. Whether what I just said is a bold faced lie is for me to know and you to find out. While you come to your own conclusions about the last part, let’s talk about things we do know. First and foremost, pooping in a public bathroom is awkward 90% of the time, and the other 10% is middle of the road, but only because you’re alone. Secondly, and far more disgusting, the Jacksonville Jaguars stink against the pass, and by stink, I mean hot garbage cans full of rotten eggs. They currently average 2.8 passing TD’s allowed, 7.9 YPA, 11.4 yards per completion, and 40.8 opponent pass attempts per game. The last number is the most telling, because the only teams with a higher attempt per game average are the Broncos and Bengals. And well you pass against the Broncos and Bengals for very different reasons than you do the Jags. Sorry Jacksonville fans, but it gets no better this Sunday as the Pittsburgh Steelers and their top 10 passing attack come to town.
After Week 4, the Steelers rank 8th in the league in passing yards per game with an average of 274.8. They also boast the top wide receiver in the virtual game in Antonio Brown, a dual threat RB in Le’Veon Bell, and a veteran QB with a strong arm in Ben Roethlishberger. Though all the aforementioned names are strong buys this week, for the purposes of this post, Big Ben is my main focus. At a price of $7,400, Roethlishberger is the 12th most expensive option on the board, and due to his matchup, an absolute steal. He should easily outperform that rank on his way to a top 5 day. I suppose it’s not without risk as the Steelers could find themselves up big early with no need to pass. My guess is the improved Jacksonville passing game combined with the less than stellar Pittsburgh defense could keep the game just close enough to matter. Well that’s my hope anyway. Coming off a strong showing at home last week against the Buccaneers the Steelers passing attack should be in for another big game against another weak opponent.
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Mike Glennon, QB: $5,500 – Here’s my favorite contest play of the week. Glennon is cheap, giraffe like, and facing a dreadful Saints defense in a dome this week. The Saints are in the bottom third of the league in opponent yards per attempt and have allowed the third highest QB Rating at 105.7. Look for Glennon to produce top 15 results at a bottom barrel price.
Drew Brees, QB: $8,900 – For as bad as the Saints have been this year on offense. redemption is coming in the form of the Buccaneers defense. Thus far no one has been worse than Tampa Bay against the pass, not even the Jags! I know wow Lovie Smith is losing credibility with each passing attempt. Especially considering the Bucs are averaging 8.5 YPA. I expect Brees to earn his steep price tag this week.
Matt Forte, RB: $7,800 – Forte faces a Carolina Defense that seems to be unaware that they were supposed to be good. Regardless of the heavy expectations of the off season, the Panthers have been the most generous run defense in the NFL. Carolina is allowing 5.7 YPA to opposing running backs. Forte should be in line to break out of his slump and produce the big numbers we’re used to.
Giovani Bernard, RB: $6,700 – We’ll make this easy, I’m a Pats fan, I’ve watched every play of every game, and they suck against the run. Jeremy Hill isn’t a bad flex play either, expect the Bengals two headed attack to run through an overrated Pats defense.
Reggie Bush, RB: $6,200 – If Joique Bell is in fact unable to play this week due to last week’s concussion, Bush should be looking at an increased workload. Already handling a sizable chunk of the passing work, an increased number of carries could be the perfect recipe for Bush to produce a top ten RB week. I’m typically not a fan of Reggie but after this week I can go back to hating him.
Bishop Sankey, RB: $4,700 – Whether Ken Whisenhunt finally stops talking about Sankey’s footwork and does what every person who’s watched 10 minutes of a Titans game would do is still up in the air. It’s obvious that Sankey should be starting over Shonn Greene and featured prominently in the offense but it hasn’t happened yet. One of these days they’re going to take the reins off and let Bishop go. Against the Browns and their putrid run defense would be a good time. The Browns are allowing an average of 5.2 YPA, second only to the Panthers. This is a great contrarian flex play, but not for the faint of heart.
Rashard Jennings, RB: $5,500 – VOLUME, VOLUME, VOLUME. Jennings is the man in the Giants running game. He’s one of the few running backs outside of Matt Forte and Demarco Murray not in some sort of a timeshare, and oh yeah he faces the Atlanta Falcons and their gate for a defense. The Falcons are allowing the second highest Yards per play in the league at 6.4 yards. This should be good for Jennings and the Giants.
Victor Cruz, WR: $5,800 – After back to back weeks over the century mark Mr. Salsa is rejoining the circle of trust. He faces the aforementioned Falcons defense who only exist to give their offense a rest. Hey Julio Jones can’t do everything.
Brian Quick, WR: $5,900 – The Eagles are allowing 2.5 passing TD’s per game, and who else is going to catch TD’s on the Rams besides Quick? His price isn’t as cheap as I might like, but he’s still a very good option in all formats.
Keenan Allen, WR: $5,800 – Last week Allen finally shook the cobwebs and put up a good game against Jacksonville, as he went 10/135. He should get another shot to shine this week as the Super Chargers take on the Jets and their Meh pass defense. He’s just cheap enough that he’s a bit of a steal, as long as he can build off of last week’s breakout.
Jeremy Maclin, WR: $5,600 – Maclin has seen an absurd 47 targets through 4 weeks and gets a cushy matchup against the lowly Rams and their bottom 3 pass defense. The Rams have the third highest YPA by opponents in the league at 8.1 and the second highest yards per play average at 6.4. I’d expect Maclin to mirror his big numbers from week 1 and week 3. His price tag is also absurdly low based on his production and place as the number one option in Chip Kelly’s passing offense.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR: $4,800 – I have no idea why Benjamin is sooooo cheap. Sure the offense isn’t great and Cam Newton is the biggest mess this side of Tom Brady, but the rookie has been doing his thing. With 29 catches, 329 yards, and 3 TD’s, Kelvin is a top 10 receiver at the moment, and is being targeted like one on a week in and week out basis. Benjamin will be in all of my lineups this week regardless of format.
Andrew Hawkins, WR: $3,500 – On DraftKings PPR stalwarts like Hawkins have a ton of value. So far his floor has been incredibly high, as he snatched no less than six catches in each of the Browns first three games. He’s also leading the receiving corps with 32 targets. Believeland faces a decent Titans defense in Tennessee this week but with Hawkins value dependent upon volume and not big play ability he should continue to be a high upside, under the radar player.
Travis Kelce, TE: $3,000 – Truthfully up until Monday night I had not seen much of Kelce, but I loved what I saw. He’s big, fast, athletic, and able to make plays with the ball in the open field. He’s not tied to a high volume passing game but should see just enough targets to come away with a useful line. Kelce is a future star in the making.
Owen Daniels, TE: $3,300 – With Dennis Pitta going down two weeks ago, Daniels slid into the starting role this past Sunday on his way to 7 targets. Besides Steve Smith Sr., Daniels saw the most looks on the team, which isn’t much different from how Pitta was utilized the first 3 weeks of the season. Even with Pitta healthy, Daniels was vulturing some redzone targets, so expect some big games to come.
Kansas City, Defense: $2,300 – There are a few things I like in this life a cold beer and a cheap defense. Yes that’s it just those two things. The Chiefs looked good against the Patriots on Monday night but then again even the Raiders looked good against them, sooooo maybe I should take that with a grain of salt. Either way, I’m not a huge fan of Colin Kaepernick, and my focus here is he’s still prone to mistakes and bad turnovers. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up a stinker this week against an underrated KC defense.
Cincinnati, Defense: $3,800 – They’re currently the best pass defense in the league based off of yards per attempt and it’s by a pretty sizable margin. The Bengals are tops in the league with an opponent YPA of 5.1, the Dolphins have the second best in the league at 5.7, and it drops off from there. In other words it gets no better for Tom Brady and the Patriots this week.
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