How much do I love a cheap QB? Let me count the ways…hrm, let’s not. I have about $6,300 worth of words built up here and I don’t think even with as long winded as I am I could get this all done by Wednesday morning. There are some things I typically appreciate over on DraftKings. One of these things is easily bye weeks. Not sure what the algorithm is that DK uses but for some reason it seems to spit guys coming off buy weeks out much cheaper than they should be. Unless they’re a Patriot and no I’m not referring to Mel Gibson’s American version of Braveheart there (we’ll get to that later…the football stuff not Mel Gibson, sugar tits). In the end, bye weeks tend to underprice guys. Is it a ‘what have you done for me lately’ thing? Is it a glitch in the Matrix? Did someone simply divide by zero? Who knows. All I know is that Tampa Bay is Tampa Bad, giving up the third most passing TDs and allow a 68% completion rate to them on the year. With Robert Griffin III at home and coming off a bye with a reasonable week in his back pocket from week 9 (250/1/1 with 34 rushing yards), I could see him having a strong week 11. Passing for 300 with 2 to 3 TDs wouldn’t be out of the question in my book, although game flow will largely dictate that as they’re a full touchdown favorite this week. The likelihood of him going nuts is pretty minimal so I’d simply say he’s a nice cash game play unless he helps you build a monster GPP roster for the week. Deploy as needed. But enough RG3, let’s get on with what else there is to see. Here’s my red hot takes for the week 11 DK slate…
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Tom Brady, QB: $9,800 – If I’m paying up at QB, Brady is my bae. In fact, I might just call him Tom Baedy for this week. In my opinion, it makes it hard to pay up at the skill positions this week to get what you need. It becomes really hard when you try and do what you should do: pair him with Rob Gronkowski at $7,900. Don’t worry, we’ll bargain hunt together later. If you wanna save some bucks and go down to A-Rod, I can’t argue it. Just doubt many people missed his 6 TDs in one half thing he did during primetime television. As TLC once taught me, don’t go chasing waterfalls…or guys who score big in prime time the week prior. That was on the B-side. GPP or cash
Philip Rivers, QB: $6,800 – There are a lot of QBs priced in the high to mid-$6K for this week who make it easier to build a roster than paying up for Bae…I mean Brady. Rivers happens to be that guy. The Vegas spread makes me hesitant to lean heavy on Rivers for tourneys simply because the Chargers are built very much like the Cowboys: they want to manage the clock which typically means melt it by running the ball and I doubt they have a problem doing so. As it is, Rivers has only cleared 30 points once this year and it was just barely (30.08 in week 4). It’s good to note he did score over 28 last time he faced the Raiders. Let’s just call him a cash game only play and move along.
Josh McCown, QB: $6,500 – Sure, he’s terrible. But you wanna know what else is terrible and easy to throw against for a guy who has talent like VJax and Evans on the outside? Those crazy kids in Washington. Though they’re stout against the run, Washington has given up 19 TDs to only 5 INTs on the year. Considering TB is on the road and will probably have to throw, I wouldn’t mind getting down with McCown. GPP only
Colin Kaepernick, QB: $6,400 – If you want a blueprint for what I think you can expect from Kap, go look at RW3’s 24.6 DK points against the Giants in week 10 when he rushed for over 100 yards and a TD. If SF does what they should, the ball should never have to be thrown and we all know Kap can run…if they let him. Coming off a huge win last week in New Orleans against a decimated defense in the Giants who can’t stop the run, some bicep kisses could be in short order this week. GPP or cash
Teddy Bridgewater, QB: $5,900 – Oh yes, Teddy B is fresh and free. Coming off a bye week and going against the Bears secondary, I’m going to have a hard time not building a Bridgewater lineup. I’m also going to have a hard time not rostering Chase Ford ($3,500) or Kyle Rudolph ($3,600) when I do it. Not only because the Bears can’t stop opposing TEs but because Bridgewater is in ‘TE binky’ stage. Hopefully he grows out of it but until them, just make sure and bring the pacifier to your lineup. GPP only
LeSean McCoy, RB: $6,400 – Until he’s priced above $7K, I ain’t quitting this man. Same song and dance here. Underpriced stud who can easily give you 5x his salary in terms of points. That would be 32 points, BTW. BTW part deux, you probably don’t know that Green Bay can be run on because so many teams play from behind against them but they give up 4.6 yards per carry. BTW part Tre (not Mason), we know Chip won’t abandon the run game as the RB formerly known as Shady hasn’t seen less than 20 carries in a game since week 4…until Monday night of course. This one could be setting up to be a ‘I’ll never play shady again’ kinda night after being over 50% owned in the big milly maker tourney. If he goes off, you go off. Maybe even in your pants. GPP or cash
Mark Ingram, RB: $6,200 – If you wanna pivot off of the LeSean train, I’d go after this caboose. Mark has three straight 100 yard rushing games and the Bengals will doubtfully stop that trend. People would be talking about him more if he’d just reached the endzone last week. But I dare say 27/120 on the ground and 3/19 through the air against the 49ers is perty impressive. GPP or cash
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB: $5,700 – We haven’t talked Vegas lines much but lemme loop you in. The highest O/U on the week belongs to the NE@IND matchup with a 57 1/2 spread. Let me loop you in on another thing. The Pats have given up the third most receptions and the most receiving TDs to opposing RBs this year. Actually that was two loops so let me give you a fourth: Bradshaw has 6 receiving TDs on the year. Normally I’d write Bradshaw off as a cash game only but with so many points to be scored and New England having a solid defense all around, I don’t see the Colts letting up on his usage like they normally would. If there was ever a week for Bradshaw to touch the ball 25 times, this would be the one. GPP or cash
C.J. Anderson, RB: $4,800 – Denver says CJ will start but will probably go with the hot hand. The second part of that first sentence is my thoughts on the matter. My second thought on the first matter is that CJ looked good. But wait a second, what does it matter what my thoughts are in the first place? Exactly. Wait, what? He could be a tourney taker or heart breaker but if you’re trying to price in some good wideouts, he is probably the way to go. GPP only
Rashad Jennings, RB: $4,700 – Pray with me. Pray that Rashad is healthy enough to play and that the coaches give him 20+ touches. Without Patrick Willis manning the middle, Ingram rolled for the line up above. I’m all over this like a mustache on Tom Selleck if he’s 100% a go. GPP only
Frank Gore, RB: $4,500 – Better talk to your dentist, this ones got caveats. Caveat one, I can’t say for sure that San Fran commits to the ground game like they did last Sunday where Gore got 23 carries. Caveat two, I also can’t say that Gore will get as many carries as 23 if they do seeing as Carlos Hyde has been a great go-to when he’s been in. The final caveat is that this could turn into a laugher, one in which Gore sits early. In the end, my thoughts on this are simple: the Giants give up 5 yards per attempt on the ground, easily the worst in the league. If Gore gets two touchdowns instead of one and averages 5 yards a carry and gets those 23 carries gain…26.5 DK points. Not safe but could be a tourney changer. GPP only
Terrance West, RB: $4,400 – A little bird told me (ok, that bird was this guy on twitter) that West has 41 carries for 142 yards over the last two weeks. I still think Crowell is the answer long term but in the short term, I won’t fight the trend. It’s hard to buy into the Browns backfield from week to week but we might be seeing the emergence of a lead back here. Until they change their mind again, of course. GPP only
Jonathan Stewart, RB: $3,400 – Yes, we’re talking bottom of the barrel here. The only reason I’m suggesting J-Stew is that he outran D-Will on Monday night. Keep your ears peeled over the course of the week to see if Carolina commits to him. If he could muster 20 carries and a few catches against the Falcons, a 20+ point day isn’t that far-fetched. GPP only
Demaryius Thomas, WR: $8,600 – DT has zero touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. OJ went two weeks without scoring and Peyton said he ‘had to get his guy going’. Low and behold, he scored 2 TDs in week 10. It’s borderline not fair when Peyton throws the ball but if you can price Demaryius in this week, enjoy cheating. I got no stats to say this but I think he’s about to go off. #Analysis GPP or cash
Jordy Nelson, WR: $7,700 – Hello, my name is Jordy and I only saw a $100 price bump after scoring over 30 DK points. Hi Jordy! He’ll probably be facing Cary Williams a bunch and…well…I don’t have the gold package over on Pro Football Focus. Let’s just say he’s not in the upper tier of CBs and leave it at that. GPP or cash
DeSean Jackson, WR: $7,300 – If you’re thinking RGIII is your boo this week, then you’ll want the guy who went for 4/120/1 the last time out with him. DJax is DMan in Washington at this point. Sorry, Frenchie Garcon. GPP or cash
Julio Jones, WR: $7,000 – Probably gets Antoine Cason for most of the game and road games are usually where Julio shines. Carolina as a team is just a mess and they give up plenty to opposing wideouts and QBs combined. I’m not pressing for Ryan simply because his home/road splits tell me not to get too crazy here but you wouldn’t be a foolio rolling with Julio this week. GPP or cash
Greg Jennings, WR: $5,000 – If you really, really, REALLY believe in Teddy-B, Jennings has been the more consistent albeit boring target in the passing game compared to Cordarrelle. The big thing is, we all know the Bears are trending in the wrong direction so a big game from Greg wouldn’t surprise me, I just wouldn’t count on it. Speaking of C-Pat, he’s only $3,800 this week. He could make or break a big tourney lineup, as we all know. As we also all know, there’s a reason he’s only $3,800. GPP or cash
Jordan Matthews, WR: $4,500 – Oh sure, DK, THIS is the guy who doesn’t see a price bump this week from the Monday game. I see how it is. If he helps you make your lineup work, I don’t mind going back to the well here. It’s clear Sanchez will heavily target him and his price isn’t prohibitive. Which is the main reason he’ll be overowned. Best be contrary as all get out if you go with him in a tourney. GPP or cash.
Pierre Garcon, WR: $4,000 – Don’t get me wrong, DJax should get his but given that the Buccs are prone to hang back in cover defense, some PPR goodness from Pierre wouldn’t surprise me. If everyone is calling for DJax, the waiter could be the one who delivers…just watch out for the pubic hair in your soup. GPP only
Jared Cook, TE: $3,500 – Look, Jimmy Graham is good and I’ve already mentioned Gronk. I’m paying up when and where I can so what more you want here? I’m bargain shopping for you! It’s the lone area in that Denver defense that can be hurt and Cook is for all intents and purposes a great physical specimen. Unfortch, he could get them down to the 3 and lose the TD to Kendricks because Jeff Fisher hates fantasy. I don’t see myself rostering Cook unless I hear news that Lance has been suspended and even then, I’ll still have to wonder if Cory Harkey has a 2 TD game. But all this to say, a 70 yard day with a TD isn’t out of the question here. GPP only
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE: $3,500 – I’m probably gonna have a TE in my flex this week for tourney time and if the Ford vs Rudolph debate isn’t cleared via practice this week, it’ll probably be ASJ there. Washington ranks near the bottom at defending opposing TEs on the year and have given up the 5th most TDs to them on the year behind teams like the Jets and Cowboys who are just now seeing their bye weeks. In other words, you could have a 2 TD game for 3.5K. That’s how you cash, bros. GPP only
Detroit Lions, DST: $3,400 – With Palmer going down for the season, picking on the Cardinals is gonna become a thing. In three starts this year, Drew Stanton completed less than 50% of his passes in two and his ‘high watermark’ was 54.5%. Ignore the ‘zero INTs’ stat here and realize you don’t miss over half your wide outs and get away with a 3:0 TD to INT ratio for long. GPP or cash
Denver Broncos, DST: $3,000 – If I’m not paying up for the Lions, I’m gonna pass on all the 3K+ types and go straight to Denver. Great defense on all points of the ball – excluding TE, of course – and gets a QB that gave the Cardinals DK fantasy points last week. And FWIW, I would consider the Vikings if their price point wasn’t exactly the same here. GPP or cash
New Orleans Saints, DST: $2,900 – Andy Dalton on TNF was like trying to watch Keanu Reeves in a movie where he couldn’t play Bill Preston. Seriously, think of any movie by him. His best roles are the ones where he doesn’t know WTF is going on and gets to ‘Woah’ face everyone. But more to the point, an 8:9 TD to INT ratio isn’t the best of things to have and Dalton was already a shaky play on the road last year. Fantasy motto for Defense: you don’t have to be good to have a good week. I’m only on this one if I need that extra $100 to take away from my Broncos play. GPP only
Fades Of The Week
Marshawn Lynch, RB: $8,200 – Lynch on the road is a different Beast Mode entirely; it’s more like hello kitty, if we’re being honest. It also doesn’t help that KC is a clock killer and the Seahawks offense isn’t the smoothest of things. I won’t be looking Lynch’s way after such a huge outburst and because he’s on the road. Save the Skittles for when he gets back home.
Mark Sanchez, QB: $5,900 – You just had a cheap QB on primetime go for over 300 with 2 TDs and he was the QB for the milly maker team. You can’t get much more hyped than that. The needle barely moved on his price heading into week 12 so there should be absolutely zero reason to fade him, right? Well, besides ridiculously high ownership, you’re also dealing with some reality here. The Panthers are a bad team all around this year and yet Sanchez still completed just 54% of his passes. That’s not an impressive threshold to reach. That’s a lower completion percentage than Mike Glennon, EJ Manuel, and *DUN DUN DUN* Geno Smith. I’m not saying he can’t be productive but I still think he’s a situational QB and heading to Green Bay is not a situation I want to be involved with.
Travis Kelce, TE: $4,000 – Everyone knows what he can do…well except maybe Andy Reid. Did he fall asleep in a bucket of extra crispy KC when Travis did his best Gronk impersonation on the Pats? Methinks so. He’s not involved in the passing game enough and that passing game averages a measly 30 attempts per game. That’s Cleveland Browns territory of passing attempts, BTW. That’s no bueno for a guy that looks very much like a value trap to me on Sunday since everyone and their mudder will be seeing the numbers against Seattle on the year with TEs.