Dynasty Top 200 Rankings: Post-OTAs Update

Even in the off-season, two weeks is a long time. OTAs have taught us well and truly enough to update my Top 200 Dynasty Rankings. As every dynasty league is different and every team has different needs, I’ve taken a neutral approach to my rankings, assuming PPR, 4-point passing touchdowns and a roster of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX. I’ve also balanced win-now value and building for the future so my rankings sit somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. If you need help valuing players in your specific situation, message me on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn, plus you can find my full positional and rookie rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com

Veteran Tight Ends make career announcements

After months of uncertainty, Darren Waller has announced his retirement. Naturally he’s droppable in all but the deepest of dynasty leagues but what does this mean for his teammates? It gives the wide receivers a slight boost but the lack of clarity over who will be the new TE1 makes it hard to push either of Waller’s backups into fantasy relevance. I suspect long-term Theo Johnson has a chance to be the main man but I think in the short-term we’ll see Daniel Bellinger lead the way in an awkward committee. Neither makes it into my Top 30 dynasty tight ends. Travis Kelce has made the opposite announcement, suggesting he intends to play out at least his existing two year contract. That’s unsurprising and doesn’t mean he’ll definitely play those two years, but it’s better than the alternative announcement! He remains my TE10 but has more value if you’re challenging for the title this season. Meanwhile former fantasy star Jimmy Graham is training to row across the Arctic Ocean. This is oddly a little fantasy-relevant as he saw a significant snap jump when Juwan Johnson was injured last year. With Johnson undergoing foot surgery and uncertain to start the season, Taysom Hill should see some true tight end usage (in addition to his new running back snaps) in conjunction with Foster Moreau. Hill is a solid flyer if your team is a challenger but is struggling at tight end. If you’re in a deep league, you can find my full dynasty rankings here.

Some Running Backs stake their claims while others falter

Devin Singletary is firming as the heavy favorite to be the Giants’ every down running back. He’s not the biggest back but he’s seen every down usage at times in Buffalo and Houston so I expect Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy are just fighting over scraps. Tracy has reportedly impressed in receiving drills, unsurprisingly for a converted wide receiver. He’s the backup to own if you want a cheap share in this backup. Another New York RB showing his receiving chops has been Braelon Allen. He’s reportedly well ahead of Israel Abanikanda in the pecking order already. A big back who could threaten Breece Hall’s monopoly on the goal line work, his passing game has also impressed and he’s likely now a true handcuff to Hall. He makes a big jump in my rankings. Another rookie showing out at OTAs was Blake Corum. While I still believe the Michigan alum is just as a talented backup, Kyren Williams’s foot injury and Corum’s strong performance could shift this into more of a committee than Williams owners would like. Williams takes a drop in my dynasty rankings and Corum jumps up. This is one of the many reasons running backs are less valuable. Meanwhile in New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is sitting out OTAs in hope of a new contract. He’s owed $47.6 million over the next two years but little of that is guaranteed. I doubt the Saints will give him a new contract so this is a situation to watch. I would be more bullish on Kendre Miller but Jamaal Williams hasn’t gone anywhere plus Taysom Hill is getting more running back carries. At this stage I’m just fading this backfield all together. Finally, Jonathon Brooks may not be ready for training camp as his ACL recovery drags on. We knew his rookie season was likely to be a rocky one but this is worse news than I expected. While I’m not willing to go and get Chuba Hubbard just yet, I’ve moved Brooks down my rankings towards his fellow rookies Trey Benson and Corum.

More contracts are signed

While the majority of contracts at this time of year are rookies, a few veterans of put pen to paper. Tee Higgins ended hold-out speculation by signing his franchise tag. Conventional wisdom suggests players playing for a long-term contract tend to perform better but for dynasty, it’s hard to value him much higher when most new homes would be a downgrade compared to the Joe Burrow-led Bengals offense. I’d much rather see Higgins re-sign in Cinci, though a move does open the possibility of him taking the lead role elsewhere. This could turn into a real lottery so I’ve ultimately not moved him much in my rankings. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has signed a blockbuster 5 year contract extension, locking him up until 2030. Admittedly there’s some easy team outs after 2027 but this does increase my confidence in Lawrence hanging around in my league for good. He was one I had considered dropping down my rankings as his play has been spotty at best in his first three seasons. A new contract gives me the confidence I need to leave him as my QB12 as he’ll continue to lead a talent-laden Jags offense for years to come.

Some rookie depth chart whackiness

Kevin O’Connell has claimed Sam Darnold is his number one quarterback and that has been reflected in Darnold’s usage at OTAs. JJ McCarthy will likely take over at some stage but this isn’t the greatest news for McCarthy owners. It’s not unprecedented for early draft picks to sit behind a strongly performing veteran for an extended period of time (check out my QB hit rate analysis here). The main benefit of taking McCarthy over Michael Penix was his Year 1 value. Without that, he would be far harder to justify. Meanwhile, Bo Nix appears to have locked down the number one spot in Denver already, with glowing reports coming out about the elder rookie quarterback. This is hardly surprising given his vast college experience and he’s still unlikely to turn into anything more than a serviceable NFL QB. But you can now justify taking Nix over both McCarthy and Penix in a superflex league where you need a starter right away. Staying in the north-east, reports suggest rookie Jets receiver Malachi Corley is set to play as a gadget and special teams player out of the gate. Xavier Gipson will man the slot role ahead of the New York 3rd round pick, despite Aaron Rodgers’s glowing praise that Corley was his favorite receiver in the draft. I’m personally taking this news with a grain of salt but I have nevertheless nudged Corley and Gipson a little closer to each other just in case.