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What are the various Razzball fantasy football tools for season-long leagues?
- Pigskinonator
- Projections and rankings for this week’s games for QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, K, IDP (individual players), and Team Defense based on our proprietary data model.
- Up on Tuesday morning. Updated at least once a day throughout week and every 5 minutes during the windows before lineup lock.
- Includes ‘What If’ Offensive and Defensive projections which project the player projections if all Doubtful and Questionable players are ruled out.
- 17 Week Ranker
- Make roster decisions from a multi-week perspective. Displays actual ranks for past weeks and projected ranks for future weeks.
- Updated daily.
- Rest of Season Projections
- We project rest of season stats for QB, RB, WR, TE, K, IDP (individual defensive players), and Team Defense based on the actual games on the schedule.
- Takes injuries/suspensions into account.
- Updated daily.
- Team Pages
- A smorgasbord of offensive and defensive stats and projections for each team including a detailed injury report, this week’s projections, season to date stats, rest of season stats, team defense, and a 17 week view on each player’s positional ranking and team distributions of snap counts, rushes, and targets.
- For 17 week views, we show actual data for past weeks and projected data for future weeks.
- Updated daily (except for injury report which is hourly).
Why should I subscribe to your tools?
The #1 reason you should get a premium fantasy football subscription is so someone mathier than you can crunch all the numbers, produce projections that give you an edge versus your competition, and display this data in easy-to-use fantasy football tools so you can make quick, informed decisions. That’s what we do better than anyone in MLB and where we put all our focus on our NFL subscription. So if you want tons of member-only content, subscribe to the other guys (or read our advice for free!). But you should still subscribe to us for the projections!
How many games do you project?
We project all regular season games as part of the 17 Week Ranker and Rest of Season projections. We are currently just displaying the full game projections for the current week but may start displaying ‘next week’.
What stats are projected?
QB – Snaps, Completions, Attempts, Completion %, Passing Yards, Yards/Competion, Yards/Attempt, % Chance at 300+ Passing Yards, Interceptions, Sacks, Rushes, Rush Yards, Yards/Rush, Fumbles Lost, Rushing TD, Passing TD, Standard Points
RB/WR – Snaps, % of Team Rushes, Rushes, Rush Yards, Yards/Rush, Run TD, % Chance at 100+ Rush Yds %, % of Team Targets, Targets, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Yards/Reception, Yards/Target, Receiving TDs, % Chance at 100+ Receiving Yds, Fumbles Lost, STD PTS, 1/2 PPR PTS, PPR PTS
TE – Snaps, % of Team Targets, Targets, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Yards/Reception, Yards/Target, Receiving TDs, % Chance at 100+ Receiving Yds, Fumbles Lost, STD PTS, 1/2 PPR PTS, PPR PTS
Kickers – FG, FGA, XP, XPA, 10-19 YD FG, 20-29 YD FG, 30-39 YD FG, 40-49 YD FG, 50+ YD FG, STD PTS
Defense Teams – Snaps, Tackles, Sacks, Interceptions, Fumbles, Safeties, TD Returns, Return Yds, Rushes, Rush Yards Against, Receptions, Receiving Yards Against, TDs Given Up, Points Given Up, Yards Given Up, STD PTS
IDP (Defensive Players) – Snaps, Tackles, Tackles For Loss, Sacks, Passes Defended, Interceptions, Fumbles Forced, Fumbles Recovered, Safeties, TD Returns, Return Yards, STD PTS
What is the methodology behind the projections?
We have invested significant time in building a data model that strives for excellence in each component of a great NFL projection. The below is a top-level explanation. Please feel free to ask in-depth questions in the comments. The projection models for each component have all been created through backtesting against games from previous seasons.
It starts with leveraging multiple data sources to determine player roles and estimate snap counts for both the offense and defense that reflect today’s NFL. Yes, there are still a few ‘bell cow’ every-down RBs but there are also RB job shares, 1st/2nd down backs, 3rd down backs, etc. There are every-down WRs, WR3s who play a majority of downs, WRs who come out in 4 WR sets. Our model aims to distinguish across all those types and making sure snap counts reflect a team’s offensive philosophy (e.g., some teams are heavy 3-4 WR, some are heavy 2 TE, etc.). Official injury status (particularly ‘Doubtful) is used to discount snap projections with backups typically receiving the allotted snaps. This same snap allotment process is used when ‘starters’ are Out. This allows us to dynamically handle last minute injury news.
Team total plays and rush/pass split are projected based on team and gameday variables (spread, home/away, is the starting QB playing, etc) while points are based on Vegas over/under and spread.
Player carries and targets are distributed based on player role, skill, projected snaps, and previous game rush/target distribution.
Player rate stats (completion rate, yards per carry, yards per target etc) are based on previous game stats (including aDOT for 2018), player scouting grades, and gameday variables (surface, weather, opposing defense, QB (for WRs)). Defensive player stats look at similar stats/grades/data and mirror the offensive stats (e.g., tackles are a percentage of the offense’s runs + completed passes).
Player TDs are based on past game red zone usage, projected rush/target volume, and height/weight and are adjusted to match the Vegas team point projection (e.g., projected TDs + FGs = Vegas line).
How do you project rookies or players with small samples?
Regression! The regression varies per the stat and sometimes the position. In most cases, we regress to a player’s expected performance based on a scouting report or some grade vs to ‘the mean’. This estimate receives a fixed weight. The player’s performance then receives a weight that is typically Rushes or Targets. The higher the player’s actual rushes/targets, the more their actual performance factors into the equation. So the regression could look something like (200 * Expected YPC + Rushes * Actual YPC)/(200+Rushes). If a player has no actual rushes, their YPC is based solely on the expected rate which – for a rookie – is just a rough guess.
How do I sort by stat?
Click the column name to sort in descending order (most to least). Click a second time to sort in ascending order.
What are the text boxes under the column header for?
These are for filtering reports. Report filters allow you to limit the rows to only those that meet your criteria.
You can filter multiple fields at the same time. Below are some examples:
| Function | Symbol | Example | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANY MATCH | ‘NY’ in Opponent field | This would filter the results to only pitchers facing the New York Giants (NYG) and New York Jets(NYJ) | |
| OR | | | Odell Beckham|Antonio Brown in ‘Name’ | This would display the stats only for these two players. (Note: To left/right wildcard, use * – e.g., *aaron*|*brady* will display Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady but Aaron|Brady returns nothing.) |
| NOT | ! | !@ in Opponent | This would remove all away starts. |
| WILDCARD | * | !(matt ryan|tom brady) in ‘Name’ | This would display the stats for all QBs EXCEPT those two. |
| NOR | ! | | !(matt ryan|tom brady) in ‘Name’ | This would display the stats for all QBs EXCEPT those two. |
| GREATER THAN | > | >10 in STD PTS | This would only display rows for players whose projected STD PTS is greater than 10 |
| LESS THAN | < | <10 in STD PTS | This would only display rows for players whose projected STD PTS is less than 10 |
| GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO | >= | >=10 in STD PTS | This would only display rows for players whose projected STD PTS is greater than or equal to 10 |
| LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO | <= | <=10 in STD PTS | This would only display rows for players whose projected STD PTS is less than or equal to 10 |
How do I identify players available in my league?
The ‘%OWN’ is based on NFL.com fantasy leagues. We recommend first filtering this down to 80% or under (<=80 in the filter box) and then adjusting this percentage up/down based on player availability in your league.
How accurate are your projections?
This is a great question and the most difficult one to answer.
The best gauge we have is the FantasyPros weekly rankings. After a humbling performance during our 2016 beta launch (89th of 125 experts), our model had a stellar 2nd half of 2017 that led to finishing 5th out of 111 experts in 2017. This included four 1st place and one 2nd place finishes in the last 10 weeks of the season.
The most distinctive aspect of our rankings/proejctions was, well, how distinct they were from the competition. As noted by FantasyPros, we also finished in the top 5 in terms of ‘boldness’ – aka difference from consensus rankings. We finished in the top 5% for both accuracy and boldness. No other expert finished in the top 20% on both measures! Below is a scattergram of the top 50 finishers for Accuracy. We are the one at the top – significantly ahead of the pack on uniqueness (and neck-in-neck for accuracy amongst the 2nd through 6th finishers).
This accuracy and uniqueness offers up the best of both worlds – informed decisions on whom to start/sit/pick up as well as greater opportunities on the waiver wire or in GPPs to find breakout candidates for the week.
How often do you update/upgrade the methodology?
We are constantly looking for ways to improve the projections. Slight modifications/improvements are made just about every week during the season. The biggest improvement in the 2017/2018 offseason was incorporating Air Yards (specifically Average Depth of Target – aka aDot) into the Yards Per Attempt model.
Can I customize the Points projections to meet my league settings?
Not at this time. We recommend downloading the projections and doing those calculations in Excel/Google Sheets.
What tools come in the DFS Premium package?
Besides getting all the season-long tools, the DFS Premium package includes:
NFL Lineup Optimizer (powered by DFC)
The Razzball NFL Lineup Optimizer powered by Daily Fantasy Cafe includes our projections for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo. Projections are updated throughout week and accelerates to every 5 minutes during lineup lock periods (e.g., Sundays before 1PM EST). It has the standard features you expect from your standard NFL Lineup Generator weather, lock in or exclude a player, etc.) as well as many advanced features such as:
- Easier Comparisons of Lineups Using Different Settings – The tabbed interface allow you to toggle between multiple 100 lineup runs based on different settings (e.g., different stacks, locked players, etc.)
- Team Stacks – Like a certain team(s) for this week’s games? Create multiple lineups around any team or let the Optimizer select the most optimal stack for you.
- Player Stacks – Like a certain player(s)? Create lineups around 1 or more players. Optimizer will select the optimal combinations according to your settings.
- Adjust Player Exposure – Want to see a player in 50% of your lineups. Just set player exposure at 50%. Or you can set an exposure ceiling for a player if you like.
- Save Setting Profiles – Avoid having to make the same setting changes each time. Just save your settings.
- Save Lineups – Do you like to research early in the day and then revisit later in the day? You can save unlimited lineups.
- Download CSV – Download one or all your lineups for easy uploading to DraftKings & FanDuel.
Optimizer View
Stacking:
“Game” View
Lineup View
DFSBot
- Projected points, salaries, and $/PT for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo DFS.
- Up on Tuesday morning. Updated at least once a day throughout week and every 5 minutes during the windows before lineup lock.
What DFS services are in DFSBot & the Lineup Optimizer?
DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft are available in the DFSBot projections. DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo are available in the Optimizer.
What do the DFSBot columns represent?
| # | Ranking column. Will update when the table is re-sorted or filtered |
| Name | Player name hyperlinked to their Razzball player page |
| Team | Player team hyperlinked to their Razzball team page |
| H | Health. P=”Probable”, Q=”Questionable, D=”Doubtful”. Players ruled out are not included. |
| Pos | Position based on the DFS service designation |
| Week | Week number |
| Day | Day of week for game |
| Hour | Start time in PM EST. |
| Opp | Opponent hyperlinked to their Razzball team page |
| Proj Pts | Projected player points. This represents average projected points. |
| Salary | Posted salary for the player in DFS |
| $/Pt | Salary / Projected Points. The lower the number, the better the potential value. |
| WhatIf Pts | Projected points for the player if all questionable/doubtful players do not play. This is intended to give a sense of the impact of key injuries. |
| WhatIf Diff | WhatIf Pts minus Proj Pts. This column could be sorted to determine players in line for significant value changes if a teammate (or defensive matchup) is ruled out. To see injured players on a specific team, put P|D in the text box of the Health column |
| Last Updated Timestamp | The time in EST when the player’s projection was last updated. |
How often are the projections updated?
We update every 5 minutes from 10AM-3:30PM EST on Sundays to account for inactives and injury reports as well as weather and Vegas line changes. On all other days, we update early in the morning EST and then on occasion throughout the day.
Do you have projections specific for GPP or Cash games?
We only do a 50th percentile projection (aka average/mean) which is typically used for GPP. The only reason one should produce an upside/GPP projection is if it is proportionally different than the average – e.g., if a 10 point player goes to 15 and a 6 point player goes to 9, nothing has really changed (both just multiplied by 1.5). Our research to date has not found any difference among players that creates disproportional upside like we have found in MLB for hitters.
How do I use the optimizer?
Please see the demo below.
Maintained by Rudy Gamble ([email protected])