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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:
Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football
Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1
Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1
In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who will potentially outkick their ADP in 2021.
A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point more per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.
2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates
Player: Gerald Everett
2020 FPPR: 1.66
Career avg. FPPR: 2.10
FPPR Variance: -21%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 5.0 | 6.2 |
Last season the Rams offense quietly was 11th in the NFL in team tight end Fantasy points per game. A lot of people would assume the Rams offense didn’t utilize the tight end because neither Tyler Higbee nor Everett finished close to the top 12 in tight end PPG. However, this was due to the tight ends splitting work evenly in 2020 with Everett seeing 62 targets to Higbee’s 60.
Now Everett has a chance to shine with only oft injured Will Dissly to split work with heading into this season. New Seahawks offense coordinator Shane Waldron comes over from the Rams, which gives Everett a leg up on the incumbents due to his knowledge of the offense. Early reports say that Russell Wilson has leaned on his new tight end behind star wide receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. The number #3 pass catcher role over the past four seasons with the Rams has averaged 84 targets a season. If we apply Everett’s catch percentage from 2020 and his FPPR those targets would result in a bump to 7.3 PPG or 116 fantasy points. That would have made Everett the tight end 13 in 2020.
Player: Hunter Henry
2020 FPPR: 1.92
Career avg. FPPR: 2.41
FPPR Variance: -20%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 8.2 | 10.3 |
Hunter Henry was the heir apparent to Antonio Gates for the Chargers and early on he looked the part. Henry’s rookie season was extremely good seeing nearly 500 yards and 8 TDs. However, injuries have capped Henry’s upside missing all of 2018 and a combined 6 games in 2019 and 2020. This has led a lot of people to forget that Henry in his last three healthy seasons averaged 9.0 PPG in .5 PPR. That production would consistently put him inside the top 10 in tight end PPG.
This offseason Henry signed with New England and poised to split work with fellow tight end Jonnu Smith. Since 2011 only two teams have posted two top 12 tight ends in the same season. That list includes the 2011 Patriots and the 2019 Eagles. In those seasons both teams had 612 and 613 pass attempts. This is important since the 2020 Patriots only threw the ball 440 times. Even the most dominate two tight end set teams only use 12 personnel 50% of snaps and most fall in the high 30% range. This will severely cap the upside for both Henry and Smith which is why neither will most likely offer top 6-8 tight end upside. Henry is going outside the top 15 at the position, and should be viewed as the every down tight end due to his superior blocking.
Player: Anthony Firkser
2020 FPPR: 1.65
Career avg. FPPR: 2.01
FPPR Variance: -18%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 4.3 | 5.2 |
Anthony Firkser’s 2020 stats alone should not offer much optimism for a potential breakout season. Even with a bump back up to his career FPPR he only would average 5.2 PPG. That being said, the potential growth in targets is what makes Firkser more appealing. The Titans as a team were 3rd in the NFL in tight end fantasy points at 13.9. Last season if you combine Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser’s stats they would have been the tight end four with 11.1 PPG.
Heading into 2021 with Smith now in New England it is easy to see Firkser’s path to a solid pass game role. His main competition for targets is Geoff Swaim and Luke Stocker who have never topped 35 targets in a season. Next, the Titans promoted tight ends coach Todd Downing so it’s doubtful a tight end coach phases out the tight end. In his lone season as a play caller Downing gave Jared Cook 86 targets. If we apply Firkser’s career catch percentage and FPPR to those targets he would generate 128 fantasy points, good for tight end eight last season.
Player: Evan Engram
2020 FPPR: 1.63
Career avg. FPPR: 1.99
FPPR Variance: -18%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 7 | 8.4 |
At this point it is easier to make a case for Evan Engram to be a fade then a buy in 2021. The competition for targets has gone way up as the Giants return Saquon Barkley and signed Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph. This will make it harder for Engram to return to his 109 targets from 2020. Even if he is able to get back over 100 targets his 8.4 PPG stated above would only put Engram at tight end 12 in PPG.
The loophole in all of this is all the players around him can’t stay healthy. Sterling Shepard has missed 10 games over the past two season, both Golladay and Barkley missed most of 2020 and Rudolph missed most of training camp recovering from foot surgery in March. The recommendation isn’t to draft Engram, but he is more appealing knowing his efficiency should go up. Who knows, he could realistically be the last man standing again in 2021.
Player: Zack Ertz
2020 FPPR: 1.60
Career avg. FPPR: 1.98
FPPR Variance: -19%
| 2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
|---|---|
| 5.2 | 6.4 |
Left for dead in the fantasy community Zack Ertz has gone from tight end stud to a thorn in Dallas Goedert’s fantasy owner’s side. Just last season in the 11 healthy games Ertz played he was 4th in tight end targets during that time frame. This resulted in him out targeting Goedert 68 to 41. We tend to believe that Goedert will take the lead role heading into 2021 but it could be closer than we think.
The good news for Ertz and Goedert is, even if there is a split new head coach Nick Sirianni has a history of utilizing tight ends. Since 2018, the Colts have finishing 5th, 4th and 14th in tight end target percentage. In 2018 with Andrew Luck both Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron were inside the top 10 in tight end PPG. Last season the Colts had a three-man rotation that resulted in three top 36 tight ends while finishing 9th as a team in tight end fantasy points. Overall, Ertz probably doesn’t offer much standalone value, but with Goedert missing 6 games over the past two seasons, he could find himself back on the TE1 radar in 2021.
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
