Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:
Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football
Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1
In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.
A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point more per game they need to average four receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .25.
2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates
Player: Cooper Kupp
2020 FPPR: 1.75
Career avg. FPPR: 2.33
FPPR Variance: -25%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
11 | 14.6 |
In 2019 Cooper Kupp generated 223.5 points on 94 receptions. In 2020 he saw a similar reception total at 92, but saw his production on those receptions plummet to just 163 fantasy points.
In a typical season, we would expect a bounce-back for Kupp; however, with the acquisition of new quarterback Matthew Stafford, the likelihood is even stronger. Of course, we all know Kupp makes his living in the slot seeing the 5th most targets and receptions last season. According to Football Outsiders DVOA slot vs. wide analysis, Stafford was 7th in the NFL in efficiency when targeting the slot over the past two seasons. This is a significant improvement over Jared Goff who was 21st over that span.
If we apply Kupp’s career FPPR to his receptions last season his 14.6 PPG would have tied with him with DeAndre Hopkins for WR7. Currently being drafted as the WR17 Kupp has plenty of room for upside in the 4th round.
Player: Amari Cooper
2020 FPPR: 2.04
Career avg. FPPR: 2.43
FPPR Variance: -16%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
11.8 | 14 |
The first year in Mike McCarthy’s system Amari Cooper had a few positive stats. However, most of that ended up being masked by the injuries to Dak Prescott and the offensive line. Last season was the first time since 2016 that Cooper saw over 120 targets in a season with 130. Also, 2020 represented the first time Cooper had over 90 receptions in a season with 92.
Unfortunately for Cooper, this newfound influx of pass volume didn’t represent a big-time jump in production. That should change in 2021 with his offense back to full health. Since Cooper joined the Cowboys his 16 game paces in the full games with Dak comes out to 92-1254-8 on 134 targets. That level of target volume is right in line with what Cooper saw in 2020. If we apply Cooper’s efficiency with Dak to those additional targets he would have produced 13.7 PPG. That would have been good for the WR12 last season making his WR17 price tag a solid buy-in 2021.
Player: Juju Smith-Schuster
2020 FPPR: 1.91
Career avg. FPPR: 2.28
FPPR Variance: -16%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
11.6 | 13.8 |
Juju Smith-Schuster has gone from the next big thing to an afterthought overnight. Last season Juju’s WR26 finish was a big disappointment after being drafted as the WR13 in the 4th round. However, heading into 2021 his WR29 ADP potentially offers some value. Over the second half of 2020 Juju saw his points per game jump to 12.6, not including a ridiculous 13-157-1 on 19 targets vs. the Browns in the playoffs. That 12.6 PPG would put Juju inside the top 20 tied with Robert Woods in 2020.
It is fair to wonder how much of the offense was condensed last season due to Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. Juju saw career-low in average depth of target at 5.5. That was a significant drop from his average of 9.3 from the previous two seasons. This includes seeing a drop from 24 to 10 in targets of 20 or more yards downfield the last time he played with Big Ben in 2018. So far in camp, the news has been positive about Ben’s arm strength and Juju has been on the receiving end on some of those deep shots. If Juju sees an expanded role in the deep passing game, he could realistically meet his FPPR projection making him a massive value in the 6th round.
Player: Terry McLaurin
2020 FPPR: 2.06
Career avg. FPPR: 2.43
FPPR Variance: -15%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
12.2 | 14.3 |
The arrow is pointing straight up for Terry McLaurin as he is set to have his best quarterback play of his career in year three. McLaurin flashed as a rookie, turning 58 receptions into 162.9 fantasy points. In 2020 we saw a major spike in usage seeing his receptions jump to 87, but only producing 182.3 fantasy points on those opportunities. That means on 29 more receptions he only generated 19.4 more points. Now a lot of you might be thinking “well he didn’t have great QB play in 2019 so maybe he just wasn’t as good with the volume.”
This brings us to Case Keenum, yes Case Keenum. In the seven games McLaurin played with Keenum he had a ridiculous 2.97 FPPR. Over that span, he averaged 13.6 PPG which would have put him slightly ahead of Tyler Lockett for WR12 in 2020. That production was with Case Keenum (for some reason I thought I had to repeat that). Insert Ryan Fitzpatrick who recently resurrected former first-round bust DeVante Parker’s career. Fitzmagic helped Parker cruise to a WR7 finish in 2019 after failing to hit double-digit fantasy points in the previous three seasons. Now with Fitzmagic in the fold, McLaurin will more than justify his current ADP at WR9 in 2021.
2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates
Quick Slants
Player: Tyler Lockett
2020 FPPR: 2.15
Career avg. FPPR: 2.40
FPPR Variance: -10%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
13.5 | 15.1 |
Tyler Lockett has produced three straight top 15 seasons for fantasy. Yes, he was inconsistent last season only producing double-digit fantasy points in 37.5% of his games. However, the previous two years he was at 62.5% in that same metric.
Player: Sterling Shepard
2020 FPPR: 1.77
Career avg. FPPR: 2.00
FPPR Variance: -12%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
10.6 | 11.9 |
Early reports out of Giants camp have stated that Sterling Shepard continues to operate as Daniel Jones’ favorite target. This was even before Kenny Golladay’s injury. In the games Shepard played 50% of the snaps in 2020 he averaged eight targets per game. Shepard’s ADP is WR62.
Player: Sammy Watkins
2020 FPPR: 2.15
Career avg. FPPR: 2.40
FPPR Variance: -23%
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
7.3 | 9.4 |
The injuries to Rashod Bateman and Marquise Brown have opened the door for Sammy Watkins to start the season as the WR1 for the Ravens. Reports out of camp say Watkins has been “dominate”. That being said, he did have his career year back in 2015 with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator so maybe lightning can strike twice for Watkins. I mean he will at least win you week one making him worth his WR73 price tag, right?
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders