If you missed the special announcement last week, we have officially launched our 2019 Razzball Commenter Leagues on Fantrax, with the Top 10 overall finishers in the RCL’s getting a spot booked in the 2020 Razzbowl! It’s quite the prize, and I can’t wait to see how the year shakes out. Lots of spots are open to play against some of our staff writers. Be sure to sign up for a league today! 

Today will be the third part of a series I started last week, which will be to take a look at the ADP rankings provided by Fantrax (which is gathered by their own site-hosted drafts), and compare that to our own 2019  projections provided by our stat guru/oracle/wizard Rudy Gamble, to identify which players to target, and which to stay away from. Simply put, which players are we high on compared to Fantrax? Which players are we lower on?

Today, we’ll be taking a look at some Wide Receivers that have some disparity between our own site projections and Fantrax’s ADP.

***NOTE – Early-bird discounts are still available on 2019 Razzball Fantasy Football subscriptions. Just $19.98 for season-long weekly projections/rankings and $99.99 includes DFS projections including lineup optimizer. Sign up today for the best projections and tools in the business!

*Note* – All ADP Data corresponds with 12-team PPR leagues

 

Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantrax ADP: 8.11, #40 WR; Razzball Projection: #16 WR

Starting off with a huge disparity, Westbrook is currently being drafted in Fantrax leagues late in the 8th round, as the 40th receiver off the board, while our projections have him as the #16 WR. {Editor’s Note: Rudy will never quit the Jaguars’ passing game!} While I don’t necessarily agree that he should be ranked this highly, I do like Westbrook a lot in fantasy this year, and I think it’s a good sign that projection system agrees with me. The addition of Nick Foles should give the Jaguars’ offense a huge boost in the passing game. As the primary slot receiver, Westbrook will benefit from Foles’ style of play, as he has focused on the short and middle areas of the field during his whole career. The Jags new OC, John DeFilippo, will make sure this Jags passing attack is plenty aggressive, which should help Westbrook’s case as well. With all of these pieces in place, I’m expecting Westbrook to finish as a lower-end WR3 with the upside to finish as a WR2 in fantasy. With the projection as a Top-20 receiver, however, is an even better sign of what is yet to come.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Fantrax ADP: 6.03, #27 WR; Razzball Projection: #19 WR

In his second season in the NFL Williams racked in 43 catches for 664 yards and 10 TD’s, finishing as the #24 receiver in 0.5 PPR formats. Heading into the 2019 season, there is reason to believe he can finish even better, thanks in part to the departure of Tyrell Williams to Oakland. While he did finish so well last year because of his TD%, which isn’t the best stat to bank on he should get a great uptick in targets behind Keenan Allen in the passing game. Even if he sees half of Tyrell William’s vacated targets, he should easily finish in the Top-20 at the position, and that is being reflected in the Razzball projections. He comes in as a great value on draft day with an ADP in the early 6th round.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantrax ADP: 2.11, #9 WR; Razzball Projection: #14 WR

While I do not agree that Evans should be projected outside of the Top-10 at the position, I do understand that there is some downside to drafting him in fantasy, and some risks that should be known when drafting him, that I’m sure are reflected in the projection that we have him for. Evans’ touchdown production has been very shaky throughout his career. He scored 12 in his rookie year, 3 in his second, 12 in his third, five in his fourth and eight in his fifth. If Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard emerge as bigger threats this year as everyone expects them to, then his TD-rate could once again dip. Also, if Bruce Arians is able to get the running game going from where it was last year, with the Bucs having the 4th-fewest rushing yards in the NFL, it could result in less overall production for Evans and the rest of the wideouts. I do not believe that these factors should sway us from targeting Evans on draft day, but I do understand, as I’m sure the projection systems does too, that he might not be a sure-fire Top-10 receiver.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

Fantrax ADP: 4.07, #18 WR; Razzball Projection: #22 WR

It’s not a huge gap between Fantrax’s ADP and our projection, but I do think there is some downside with drafting Kenny G this season that I want to discuss. After Golden Tate was traded to Philadelphia at the end of October, Detroit’s passing attack took a bit of a dip. While Golladay did see double-digit targets in three of his final seven games, he was held to three or fewer catches in 5 games, and the last time he scored came in Week 11. If we’re assuming Golladay will be the #1 receiving option in Detroit, he’ll likely be facing top cornerback coverage with possible help over the top. Predicting where Golladay could finish in 2019 has been tricky as well, because as much as we want to assume he’s the better receiving option for the Lions, over Marvin Jones, he was out-targeted by Jones half the season last year. There is some risk with drafting Golladay, and with a price tag in the 4th round, it might be too much for me to handle.

 

The NFFC is the home of the inaugural RazzBowl! If you’re looking for a place to play high stakes fantasy football, look no further than the NFFC. Along with their innovative formats, the NFFC is the longest running high-stakes fantasy sports contest in the industry. It has awarded more than $53 million in prizes and will award $4 million+ more this year! Join the fun today. 

You Can Follow Me on Twitter @zachrob2k

  1. Clokwerc says:
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    In a keeper league i have K. Johnson as my 7th pick so id lose my 6th rd pick… I have M. Thomas as 10th pk so id lose my 9th pick… and i have E. Engram as my FA so id lose my last pick… Should i keep M.Thomas & E.Engram or should i take K.Johnson with one of these guys?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      If you have to keep two I’d go with Johnson and Mike Thomas.

  2. Kurt Oechslin says:
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    Fingers crossed on Williams replicating the TD%. Trying to decide between him, Ekeler, Hunter Henry (all 16th), golladay, cupp (both 5th), and Kerryon (4th) for my last 2 keepers. I already have Thomas, Allen, Chubb, Lindsey, and Garrapolo locked in at great values. 2 qb, ppr, 12 team. Thoughts?

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      I would keep Kerryon, and Hunter Henry in the 16th

  3. Nightpandas says:
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    Zach,

    Looking at keeping up to three…who do you like

    12 team .5ppr

    Ridley $11
    Ty Williams 5
    C Kirk 8
    Anthony Miller 8
    Jones Jr 16
    Fuller 14
    Watkins 19

    OJ Howard 2

    Barber 8
    Michel 9
    R Freeman 23
    Jones II 14

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      I would keep Kirk, Michel, and Ridley

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