There are a handful of players I fell in love with combing through college production data that the NFL didn’t seem too keen on. My process is outlined here but breakout age, receptions per game and top 3 round NFL draft capital remain important pillars in my prospect evaluation.

The following 3 players met one or more of my thresholds but fell very short of being a day 2 selection in the NFL draft. I wanted to dig deeper and watch some tape to see if the NFL missed something or if I did.

For each player I will list why they caught my eye in the first place then dig into the film. Of course I couldn’t watch the tape and not turn it into some numbers! I charted a few items while watching:

Targets
Receptions
QB incompletions – this is an instance where the receiver got open but the pass was not complete due to a bad pass
Slot – the percent of targets for which the receiver started in the slot
Most frequent route – the film I had didn’t always show the route on incompletions, so I only counted routes for receptions
Air yards / reception (rec) – yards gained from the line of scrimmage to the catch point only
Yards after reception (yac) / rec – yards gained from the catch point to the end of the play

Isaiah Hodgins – Buffalo Bills

Metrics

Breakout Age	Best Market Share	College Receptions per game	BMI	Round Selected
20	40%	5.2	25.8	6

Why I liked him

The 40% market share in 2019 is a very impressive number, even though he didn’t have a teenage breakout. He also eclipsed the 4.5 receptions per game threshold I look for, and declared early for the NFL.

Film Review

Games	Targets	Receptions	QB incompletions	Slot	Most frequent route	air yards/rec	yac/rec
3	32	23	7	18%	curl (5)	14	3.9

Subjective observations (2018 Oregon, 2019 Oklahoma State, 2019 Arizona)

The Oregon game in 2018 was hard to watch. He looked sluggish and unenthusiastic on almost every snap. The QB in this one was horrible, one hopping throws and 5 of the “QB incompletions” were in this contest.
The next 2 games from 2019 were both very exciting, he showed crisp routes and ability to get open down field with double moves
Impressive change of direction and cutting given his 6’4″ frame
Didn’t see much press man coverage, so it is unclear how he would handle that
Looks like a possession receiver, but can succeed down the field as evidenced by 14 air yards per reception
Unenthusiastic blocker and seems to take the occasional play off
Comp that came to mind – discount Michael Pittman
Favorite play – 25 yard corner route vs. man with a double move that led to a wide open score against Arizona

NFL team fit

John Brown has a lengthy injury history, is on the wrong side of 30, and only signed through 2021. The Bills took 2 X types in 4th rounder Gabriel Davis and Hodgins. They will compete to be the outside receiver opposite Stefon Diggs in a year or 2. I like him as a stash but realistically for 2020 he’s a taxi squad guy in deep dynasty leagues.

James Proche – Baltimore Ravens

Metrics

Breakout Age	Best Market Share	College Receptions per game	BMI	Round Selected
21	40%	6	28.3	6

Why I liked him

Proche is an old prospect, coming in after his 5th season in college but had an incredibly productive resume at SMU. He caught 6 balls per game over his entire career and boasted a 40% market share his final season. Additionally, he registered a 28.3 BMI at the combine which was nice to see.

Film Review

Games	Targets	Receptions	QB incompletions	Slot	Most frequent route	air yards/rec	yac/rec
3	44	26	12	36%	curl, screen (6)	8.5	3.5

Subjective Observations (2018 Cincinnati, 2019 Memphis, 2019 Temple)

Crisp cuts and savvy route running ability
Not a lot of “wow” plays
Almost all his YAC came off screens
Most work was done around the line of scrimmage
Very scrappy and enthusiastic player
Sells every route on every play
Good blocker when needed
Favorite play – 28 yard end zone fade with a leaping catch over his defender against Cincinnati

NFL team fit

He seems like a perfect player for what the Ravens need. He will block in their high volume run scheme and can eventually work his way into a possession type role player. I think he has the makings of a clubhouse “glue guy” who is a solid 4th/5th WR and will stick around for a long time, but maybe not on fantasy rosters.

Quintez Cephus – Detroit Lions

Metrics

Breakout Age	Best Market Share	College Receptions per game	BMI	Round Selected
19	35%	3.1	26.7	5

Why I liked him

After a teenage breakout in 2017, Cephus missed a season due to legal troubles but came back with a vengeance in 2019. His 4 year stint in college can be overlooked because he may have been on track to declare early if not for the season off. He’s got a solid build and disappointed at the combine with a sluggish 4.73 forty but did register an 82nd percentile burst score.

Film Review

Games	Targets	Receptions	QB incompletions	Slot	Most frequent route	air yards/rec	yac/rec
3	19	13	5	36%	curl (4)	13.3	5.8

Subjective Observations (2019 Michigan State, 2019 Central Michigan, 2019 Iowa)

Tenacious player, runs aggressive routes
Good after the catch, has running back-like determination to get extra yards
Uses hands, shoulders, and body rather than speed to get open
Won’t blow past defenders but was still successful creating separation on multiple “go” routes against man coverage
Versatile, showing ability to win from multiple roles
Murderous blocker, seeks out DBs to hit on run plays
Favorite play – 20 yard back shoulder fade to the sideline where he maintained balance, spun off the defender and finished off the last 5 yards into the end zone

NFL team fit

I really think the Lions got a gem in Cephus, and am happy I have snagged him late in many drafts. Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are playing out contracts, but as early as 2021 Cephus could walk into a prime time role opposite Kenny Golladay. With his ability to man the slot and play outside, he can find playing time in many ways.

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